Abstract

Multidecadal to centennial variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in a multi-thousand-year simulation of the third version of the Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) and in an ensemble of general circulation models (GCMs) based on HadCM3 with perturbed physics. Large changes in the AMOC in the standard HadCM3 are strongly related to salinity anomalies in the deep-water formation regions, with anomalies arriving via two pathways. The first is from a coupled feedback in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, described previously by Vellinga and Wu, and the second is from variability in the Arctic Ocean, possibly driven by stochastic sea level pressure. The low-frequency variability of the AMOC in HadCM3 is well predicted from salinity anomalies from these two pathways. The sensitivity of these processes to model physics is investigated using a small ensemble based on HadCM3 where parameters relating to physical processes are varied. The AMOC responds consistently to the salinity anomalies in the ensemble members. However, 1) the timing of the response depends on the background climate state and 2) some ensemble members have significantly larger AMOC and salinity variability than in standard HadCM3 simulations. In this small ensemble, the presence and strength of multidecadal to centennial AMOC variability is associated with the variability of salinity exported from the Arctic, with little multidecadal to centennial variability of either in the coldest members. This demonstrates how the background climate state can alter the frequency and strength of AMOC variability and is a first step toward understanding how AMOC variability differs within a multimodel context.

Abstract

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the North Atlantic climate system. Here, simulations from 10 coupled climate models are used to calculate patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and subsurface density change associated with decadal AMOC variability. The models are evaluated using observational constraints and it is shown that all 10 models suffer from North Atlantic Deep Water transports that are too shallow, although the biases are least severe in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). In the models that best compare with observations, positive AMOC anomalies are associated with reduced Labrador Sea stratification and increased midocean (800–1800 m) densities in the subpolar gyre. Maximum correlations occur when AMOC anomalies lag Labrador Sea stratification and subsurface density anomalies by 2–6 yr and 0–3 yr, respectively. In all 10 models, North Atlantic warming follows positive AMOC anomalies, but the patterns and magnitudes of SST change are variable. A simple detection and attribution analysis is then used to evaluate the utility of Atlantic midocean density and Labrador Sea stratification indices for detecting changes to the AMOC in the presence of increasing CO₂ concentrations. It is shown that trends in midocean density are identifiable (although not attributable) significantly earlier than trends in the AMOC. For this reason, subsurface density observations could be a useful complement to transport observations made at specific latitudes and may help with the more rapid diagnosis of basin-scale changes in the AMOC. Using existing observations, it is not yet possible to detect a robust trend in the AMOC using either midocean densities or transport observations from 26.5°N.

Abstract

The topographical control of western boundary currents within a basin and zonal jets in a channel is investigated in terms of the potential vorticity (PV) and barotropic vorticity (BV: the curl of the depth-integrated velocity) budgets using isopycnic, adiabatic wind–driven experiments. Along the western boundary, the wind-driven transport is returned across latitude lines by the bottom pressure torque, while friction is only important in altering the PV within an isopycnic layer and in allowing a closed circulation. These contrasting balances constrain the geometry of the flow through integral relationships for the BV and PV. For both homogenous and stratified basins with sloping sidewalls, the northward subtropical jet separates from the western wall and has opposing frictional torques on either side of the jet, which cancel in a zonal integral for BV but alter the PV within a layer streamline. In a channel with partial topographic barriers, the bottom pressure torque is again important in returning wind-driven flows along western boundaries and in transferring BV from neighboring wind-driven gyres into a zonal jet. The depth-integrated flow steered by topography controls where the bottom friction alters the PV, which can lead to different PV states being attained for separate subbasins along a channel.

Abstract

Ocean heat transport (OHT) plays a key role in climate and its variability. Here, we identify modes of low-frequency North Atlantic OHT variability by applying a low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) to output from three global climate models. The first low-frequency component (LFC), computed using this method, is an index of OHT variability that maximizes the ratio of low-frequency variance (occurring at decadal and longer time scales) to total variance. Lead–lag regressions of atmospheric and ocean variables onto the LFC time series illuminate the dominant mechanisms controlling low-frequency OHT variability. Anomalous northwesterly winds from eastern North America over the North Atlantic act to increase upper ocean density in the Labrador Sea region, enhancing deep convection, which later increases OHT via changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The strengthened AMOC carries warm, salty water into the subpolar gyre, reducing deep convection and weakening AMOC and OHT. This mechanism, where changes in AMOC and OHT are driven primarily by changes in Labrador Sea deep convection, holds not only in models where the climatological (i.e., time-mean) deep convection is concentrated in the Labrador Sea, but also in models where the climatological deep convection is concentrated in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas or the Irminger and Iceland Basins. These results suggest that despite recent observational evidence suggesting that the Labrador Sea plays a minor role in driving the climatological AMOC, the Labrador Sea may still play an important role in driving low-frequency variability in AMOC and OHT.

Abstract

A substantial fraction of the deep ocean is ventilated in the high-latitude North Atlantic. Consequently, the region plays a crucial role in transient climate change through the uptake of carbon dioxide and heat. However, owing to the Lagrangian nature of the process, many aspects of deep Atlantic Ocean ventilation and its representation in climate simulations remain obscure. We investigate the nature of ventilation in the high-latitude North Atlantic in an eddy-permitting numerical ocean circulation model using a comprehensive set of Lagrangian trajectory experiments. Backward-in-time trajectories from a model-defined North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) reveal the locations of subduction from the surface mixed layer at high spatial resolution. The major fraction of NADW ventilation results from subduction in the Labrador Sea, predominantly within the boundary current (~60% of ventilated NADW volume) and a smaller fraction arising from open ocean deep convection (~25%). Subsurface transformations—due in part to the model’s parameterization of bottom-intensified mixing—facilitate NADW ventilation, such that water subducted in the boundary current ventilates all of NADW, not just the lighter density classes. There is a notable absence of ventilation arising from subduction in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas, due to the re-entrainment of those waters as they move southward. Taken together, our results emphasize an important distinction between ventilation and dense water formation in terms of the location where each takes place, and their concurrent sensitivities. These features of NADW ventilation are explored to understand how the representation of high-latitude processes impacts properties of the deep ocean in a state-of-the-science numerical simulation.

Oceanic overflows are bottom-trapped density currents originating in semienclosed basins, such as the Nordic seas, or on continental shelves, such as the Antarctic shelf. Overflows are the source of most of the abyssal waters, and therefore play an important role in the large-scale ocean circulation, forming a component of the sinking branch of the thermohaline circulation. As they descend the continental slope, overflows mix vigorously with the surrounding oceanic waters, changing their density and transport significantly. These mixing processes occur on spatial scales well below the resolution of ocean climate models, with the result that deep waters and deep western boundary currents are simulated poorly. The Gravity Current Entrainment Climate Process Team was established by the U.S. Climate Variability and Prediction (CLIVAR) Program to accelerate the development and implementation of improved representations of overflows within large-scale climate models, bringing together climate model developers with those conducting observational, numerical, and laboratory process studies of overflows. Here, the organization of the Climate Process Team is described, and a few of the successes and lessons learned during this collaboration are highlighted, with some emphasis on the well-observed Mediterranean overflow. The Climate Process Team has developed several different overflow parameterizations, which are examined in a hierarchy of ocean models, from comparatively well-resolved regional models to the largest-scale global climate models.