Search Results
You are looking at 1 - 6 of 6 items for
- Author or Editor: Lynn Johnson x
- Refine by Access: All Content x
Abstract
This paper reports on an assessment of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) issued by the Arkansas–Red Basin River Forecast Center during the period May–June 1995. Assessment procedures involved spatial statistical procedures applied to the QPFs and Stage III calibrated radar-rainfall fields, and overlays of these. The QPF estimates were broad regional estimates that corresponded reasonably well to actual storm characteristics over the region. Over smaller areas on the order of 10% of the region (∼9000 mi2) the character of actual storms departs significantly from the QPF. Embedded storm cells having high intensity rainfall were not well predicted by the QPF. There was indication that QPF skill increased with rainfall magnitude.
Abstract
This paper reports on an assessment of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) issued by the Arkansas–Red Basin River Forecast Center during the period May–June 1995. Assessment procedures involved spatial statistical procedures applied to the QPFs and Stage III calibrated radar-rainfall fields, and overlays of these. The QPF estimates were broad regional estimates that corresponded reasonably well to actual storm characteristics over the region. Over smaller areas on the order of 10% of the region (∼9000 mi2) the character of actual storms departs significantly from the QPF. Embedded storm cells having high intensity rainfall were not well predicted by the QPF. There was indication that QPF skill increased with rainfall magnitude.
In support of the National Weather Service (NWS) modernization, the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) has been developing prototype hydrometeorological workstations for many years. The FSL Evaluation Team (E-Team) has developed a process of evaluating these prototypes to provide feedback to FSL developers and NWS management. This paper outlines the evaluation process with an emphasis on the methods, which consist of product usage logs, questionnaires, evaluation logs, structured tasks, observations, and interviews. Examples from E-Team evaluations illustrate how results from these different methods have led to improved workstation design, implementation, and training.
In support of the National Weather Service (NWS) modernization, the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) has been developing prototype hydrometeorological workstations for many years. The FSL Evaluation Team (E-Team) has developed a process of evaluating these prototypes to provide feedback to FSL developers and NWS management. This paper outlines the evaluation process with an emphasis on the methods, which consist of product usage logs, questionnaires, evaluation logs, structured tasks, observations, and interviews. Examples from E-Team evaluations illustrate how results from these different methods have led to improved workstation design, implementation, and training.
Abstract
Emissions of particles, gases, heat, and water vapor from ships are discussed with respect to their potential for changing the microstructure of marine stratiform clouds and producing the phenomenon known as “ship tracks.” Airborne measurements are used to derive emission factors of SO2 and NO from diesel-powered and steam turbine-powered ships, burning low-grade marine fuel oil (MFO); they were ∼15–89 and ∼2–25 g kg−1 of fuel burned, respectively. By contrast a steam turbine–powered ship burning high-grade navy distillate fuel had an SO2 emission factor of ∼6 g kg−1.
Various types of ships, burning both MFO and navy distillate fuel, emitted from ∼4 × 1015 to 2 × 1016 total particles per kilogram of fuel burned (∼4 × 1015–1.5 × 1016 particles per second). However, diesel-powered ships burning MFO emitted particles with a larger mode radius (∼0.03–0.05 μm) and larger maximum sizes than those powered by steam turbines burning navy distillate fuel (mode radius ∼0.02 μm). Consequently, if the particles have similar chemical compositions, those emitted by diesel ships burning MFO will serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) at lower supersaturations (and will therefore be more likely to produce ship tracks) than the particles emitted by steam turbine ships burning distillate fuel. Since steam turbine–powered ships fueled by MFO emit particles with a mode radius similar to that of diesel-powered ships fueled by MFO, it appears that, for given ambient conditions, the type of fuel burned by a ship is more important than the type of ship engine in determining whether or not a ship will produce a ship track. However, more measurements are needed to test this hypothesis.
The particles emitted from ships appear to be primarily organics, possibly combined with sulfuric acid produced by gas-to-particle conversion of SO2. Comparison of model results with measurements in ship tracks suggests that the particles from ships contain only about 10% water-soluble materials. Measurements of the total particles entering marine stratiform clouds from diesel-powered ships fueled by MFO, and increases in droplet concentrations produced by these particles, show that only about 12% of the particles serve as CCN.
The fluxes of heat and water vapor from ships are estimated to be ∼2–22 MW and ∼0.5–1.5 kg s−1, respectively. These emissions rarely produced measurable temperature perturbations, and never produced detectable perturbations in water vapor, in the plumes from ships. Nuclear-powered ships, which emit heat but negligible particles, do not produce ship tracks. Therefore, it is concluded that heat and water vapor emissions do not play a significant role in ship track formation and that particle emissions, particularly from those burning low-grade fuel oil, are responsible for ship track formation. Subsequent papers in this special issue discuss and test these hypotheses.
Abstract
Emissions of particles, gases, heat, and water vapor from ships are discussed with respect to their potential for changing the microstructure of marine stratiform clouds and producing the phenomenon known as “ship tracks.” Airborne measurements are used to derive emission factors of SO2 and NO from diesel-powered and steam turbine-powered ships, burning low-grade marine fuel oil (MFO); they were ∼15–89 and ∼2–25 g kg−1 of fuel burned, respectively. By contrast a steam turbine–powered ship burning high-grade navy distillate fuel had an SO2 emission factor of ∼6 g kg−1.
Various types of ships, burning both MFO and navy distillate fuel, emitted from ∼4 × 1015 to 2 × 1016 total particles per kilogram of fuel burned (∼4 × 1015–1.5 × 1016 particles per second). However, diesel-powered ships burning MFO emitted particles with a larger mode radius (∼0.03–0.05 μm) and larger maximum sizes than those powered by steam turbines burning navy distillate fuel (mode radius ∼0.02 μm). Consequently, if the particles have similar chemical compositions, those emitted by diesel ships burning MFO will serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) at lower supersaturations (and will therefore be more likely to produce ship tracks) than the particles emitted by steam turbine ships burning distillate fuel. Since steam turbine–powered ships fueled by MFO emit particles with a mode radius similar to that of diesel-powered ships fueled by MFO, it appears that, for given ambient conditions, the type of fuel burned by a ship is more important than the type of ship engine in determining whether or not a ship will produce a ship track. However, more measurements are needed to test this hypothesis.
The particles emitted from ships appear to be primarily organics, possibly combined with sulfuric acid produced by gas-to-particle conversion of SO2. Comparison of model results with measurements in ship tracks suggests that the particles from ships contain only about 10% water-soluble materials. Measurements of the total particles entering marine stratiform clouds from diesel-powered ships fueled by MFO, and increases in droplet concentrations produced by these particles, show that only about 12% of the particles serve as CCN.
The fluxes of heat and water vapor from ships are estimated to be ∼2–22 MW and ∼0.5–1.5 kg s−1, respectively. These emissions rarely produced measurable temperature perturbations, and never produced detectable perturbations in water vapor, in the plumes from ships. Nuclear-powered ships, which emit heat but negligible particles, do not produce ship tracks. Therefore, it is concluded that heat and water vapor emissions do not play a significant role in ship track formation and that particle emissions, particularly from those burning low-grade fuel oil, are responsible for ship track formation. Subsequent papers in this special issue discuss and test these hypotheses.
Abstract
A case study of the effects of ship emissions on the microphysical, radiative, and chemical properties of polluted marine boundary layer clouds is presented. Two ship tracks are discussed in detail. In situ measurements of cloud drop size distributions, liquid water content, and cloud radiative properties, as well as aerosol size distributions (outside-cloud, interstitial, and cloud droplet residual particles) and aerosol chemistry, are presented. These are related to remotely sensed measurements of cloud radiative properties.
The authors examine the processes behind ship track formation in a polluted marine boundary layer as an example of the effects of anthropogenic particulate pollution on the albedo of marine stratiform clouds.
Abstract
A case study of the effects of ship emissions on the microphysical, radiative, and chemical properties of polluted marine boundary layer clouds is presented. Two ship tracks are discussed in detail. In situ measurements of cloud drop size distributions, liquid water content, and cloud radiative properties, as well as aerosol size distributions (outside-cloud, interstitial, and cloud droplet residual particles) and aerosol chemistry, are presented. These are related to remotely sensed measurements of cloud radiative properties.
The authors examine the processes behind ship track formation in a polluted marine boundary layer as an example of the effects of anthropogenic particulate pollution on the albedo of marine stratiform clouds.
Abstract
The effects of anthropogenic particulate emissions from ships on the radiative, microphysical, and chemical properties of moderately polluted marine stratiform clouds are examined. A case study of two ships in the same air mass is presented where one of the vessels caused a discernible ship track while the other did not. In situ measurements of cloud droplet size distributions, liquid water content, and cloud radiative properties, as well as aerosol size distributions (outside cloud, interstitial, and cloud droplet residual particles) and aerosol chemistry, are presented. These are related to measurements of cloud radiative properties. The differences between the aerosol in the two ship plumes are discussed;these indicate that combustion-derived particles in the size range of about 0.03–0.3-μm radius were those that caused the microphysical changes in the clouds that were responsible for the ship track.
The authors examine the processes behind ship track formation in a moderately polluted marine boundary layer as an example of the effects that anthropogenic particulate pollution can have in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds.
Abstract
The effects of anthropogenic particulate emissions from ships on the radiative, microphysical, and chemical properties of moderately polluted marine stratiform clouds are examined. A case study of two ships in the same air mass is presented where one of the vessels caused a discernible ship track while the other did not. In situ measurements of cloud droplet size distributions, liquid water content, and cloud radiative properties, as well as aerosol size distributions (outside cloud, interstitial, and cloud droplet residual particles) and aerosol chemistry, are presented. These are related to measurements of cloud radiative properties. The differences between the aerosol in the two ship plumes are discussed;these indicate that combustion-derived particles in the size range of about 0.03–0.3-μm radius were those that caused the microphysical changes in the clouds that were responsible for the ship track.
The authors examine the processes behind ship track formation in a moderately polluted marine boundary layer as an example of the effects that anthropogenic particulate pollution can have in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds.
