Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 30 items for

  • Author or Editor: M. Jung x
  • All content x
Clear All Modify Search
Chunyong Jung and Gary M. Lackmann

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing strong extratropical transition (ET) can produce adverse societal impacts in areas that rarely experience direct TC impacts. This, in conjunction with projected environmental changes in climatological ET regions, motivates the investigation of possible future changes in ET characteristics. We utilize a small ensemble of numerical model simulations to examine how warming affects the ET of Hurricane Irene. To assess the effects of climate change, we use the pseudo-global warming method in which thermodynamic changes, derived from an ensemble of 20 CMIP5 GCMs, are applied to analyzed initial and lateral boundary conditions of model simulations. We find increased storm intensity in the future simulations, both in reduced minimum sea level pressure and strengthened 10-m wind speed. Storm-centered composites indicate a strengthening of tropospheric potential vorticity near the center of Irene, consistent with enhanced latent heat release. The results also demonstrate that Irene’s precipitation in the warmed simulations increases at a rate that exceeds Clausius–Clapeyron scaling, owing to enhanced moisture flux convergence and an additional contribution from increased surface evaporation. The duration of the transition process increased in the warmed simulations due to a weakened midtropospheric trough and reduced vertical wind shear and meridional SST gradient with a slower northward translation. These results suggest that transitioning storms may exhibit an increased ability to extend TC-like conditions poleward, and motivates additional research.

Full access
Chunyong Jung and Gary M. Lackmann

Abstract

This study uses small ensembles of convection-allowing, quasi-idealized simulations to examine the response of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing extratropical transition (ET) to climate change. Using HURDAT2 and ERA5 data over a 40-yr period from 1979 to 2018, we developed storm-relative composite fields for past North Atlantic recurving, oceanic ET events. The quasi-idealized present-day simulations are initialized from these composites and run in an aquaplanet domain. A pseudo–global warming approach is used for future simulations: Thermodynamic changes between late twenty-first century and twentieth century, derived from an ensemble of 20 CMIP5 GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are added to the present-day initial and lateral boundary conditions. The composite-initialized present-day simulations exhibit realistic ET characteristics. Future simulations show greater intensity, heavier precipitation, and stronger downstream midlatitude wave train development relative to the present-day case. Specifically, the future ET event is substantially stronger before ET completion, though the system undergoes less reintensification after ET completion. Reductions in lower-tropospheric baroclinicity associated with Arctic amplification could contribute to this result. The future simulation exhibits 3-hourly ensemble-mean precipitation rate increases ranging from ~23% to ~50%, depending on ET phase and averaging radius. In addition, larger eddy kinetic energy accompanies the future storm, partly created by increased baroclinic conversion, resulting in stronger amplification of downstream energy maxima via intensified ageostrophic geopotential flux convergence and divergence. These results suggest that future TCs undergoing ET could have greater potential to cause high-impact weather in western Europe through both direct and remote processes.

Restricted access
K. Trusilova, M. Jung, and G. Churkina

Abstract

Over the last two decades, a disproportional increase of urban land area in comparison with the population growth has been observed in many countries of Europe, and this trend is predicted to continue. The conversion of vegetated land into urban land leads to a higher proportion of impervious surface area, to decline and change of vegetation cover, to artificial heat sources, and therefore to changes in climate. This study focuses on the implications of the expansion of urban land for the European climate at the local and regional scales. Regional climate simulations with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) coupled to the Town Energy Budget model are used to isolate effects of urban land expansion on temperature and precipitation. The study suggests that the expansion of current urban land by 40% would lead to an enlargement of regions affected by thermal stress by a factor of 2, whereas the intensity of the thermal stress does not change significantly. Precipitation in urban areas would be reduced by 0.2 mm day−1 in summer as a result of disturbances of the water cycle caused by urban surfaces. The area in which precipitation was altered increased nearly linearly with the urban land increment.

Full access
Thomas Jung, Laura Ferranti, and Adrian M. Tompkins

Abstract

The sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation to the warm Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies observed during the summer of 2003 (July and August) is studied using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. A control integration imposes climatological Mediterranean SSTs as a lower boundary condition. The first sensitivity experiment uniformly increases these Mediterranean SSTs by 2 K, the approximate mean observed in the 2003 summer season. A second experiment then investigates the additional impact of the SST distribution by imposing the observed SST summer anomaly.

The response of the atmospheric circulation in the European area shows some resemblance to the observed anomaly. The weakness of this response suggests, however, that the warm Mediterranean played a minor role, if any, in maintaining the anomalous atmospheric circulation as observed in the summer of 2003. Increasing SST in the Mediterranean locally leads to an increase in precipitation, particularly in the western Mediterranean. Furthermore, significantly increased Sahelian rainfall is simulated, deriving from enhanced evaporation in the Mediterranean Sea. In the ECMWF model the anomalously high moisture is advected by the climatological Harmattan and Etesian winds, where enhanced moisture flux convergence leads to more precipitation. The associated diabatic heating leads to a reduction of the African easterly jet strength. A similar Sahelian response has been previously documented using a different atmospheric model, increasing confidence in the robustness of the result. Finally, the results are discussed in the context of the seasonal predictability of European and African climate.

Full access
T. Jung, T. N. Palmer, M. J. Rodwell, and S. Serrar

Abstract

Experiments with the atmospheric component of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) have been carried out to study the origin of the atmospheric circulation anomalies that led to the unusually cold European winter of 2005/06. Experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice fields fail to reproduce the observed atmospheric circulation anomalies suggesting that the role of SST and sea ice was either not very important or the atmospheric response to SST and sea ice was not very well captured by the ECMWF model. Additional experiments are carried out in which certain regions of the atmosphere are relaxed toward analysis data thereby artificially suppressing the development of forecast error. The relaxation experiments suggest that both tropospheric circulation anomalies in the Euro–Atlantic region and the anomalously weak stratospheric polar vortex can be explained by tropical circulation anomalies. Separate relaxation experiments for the tropical stratosphere and tropical troposphere highlight the role of the easterly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and, most importantly, tropospheric circulation anomalies, especially over South America and the tropical Atlantic. From the results presented in this study, it is argued that the relaxation technique is a powerful diagnostic tool to understand possible remote origins of seasonal-mean anomalies.

Full access
T. Jung, M. J. Miller, and T. N. Palmer

Abstract

Experiments with the ECMWF model are carried out to study the influence that a correct representation of the lower boundary conditions, the tropical atmosphere, and the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere would have on extended-range forecast skill of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere during boreal winter. Generation of forecast errors during the course of the integration is artificially reduced by relaxing the ECMWF model toward the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) in certain regions. Prescribing rather than persisting sea surface temperature and sea ice fields leads to a modest forecast error reduction in the extended range, especially over the North Pacific and North America; no beneficial influence is found in the medium range. Relaxation of the tropical troposphere leads to reduced extended-range forecast errors especially over the North Pacific, North America, and the North Atlantic. It is shown that a better representation of the Madden–Julian oscillation is of secondary importance for explaining the results of the tropical relaxation experiments. The influence from the tropical stratosphere is negligible. Relaxation of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere leads to forecast error reduction primarily in high latitudes and over Europe. However, given the strong influence from the troposphere onto the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere it is argued that stratospherically forced experiments are very difficult to interpret in terms of their implications for extended-range predictability of the tropospheric flow. The results are discussed in the context of future forecasting system development.

Full access
Youngsun Jung, Ming Xue, Guifu Zhang, and Jerry M. Straka

Abstract

A data assimilation system based on the ensemble square-root Kalman filter (EnSRF) is extended to include the additional capability of assimilating polarimetric radar variables. It is used to assess the impact of assimilating additional polarimetric observations on convective storm analysis in the Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework. The polarimetric variables considered include differential reflectivity Z DR, reflectivity difference Z dp, and specific differential phase K DP. To simulate the observational data more realistically, a new error model is introduced for characterizing the errors of the nonpolarimetric and polarimetric radar variables. The error model includes both correlated and uncorrelated error components for reflectivities at horizontal and vertical polarizations (ZH and ZV, respectively). It is shown that the storm analysis is improved when polarimetric variables are assimilated in addition to ZH or in addition to both ZH and radial velocity Vr. Positive impact is largest when Z DR, Z dp, and K DP are assimilated all together. Improvement is generally larger in vertical velocity, water vapor, and rainwater mixing ratios. The rainwater field benefits the most while the impacts on horizontal wind components and snow mixing ratio are smaller. Improvement is found at all model levels even though the polarimetric data, after the application of thresholds, are mostly limited to the lower levels. Among Z DR, Z dp, and K DP, Z DR is found to produce the largest positive impact on the analysis. It is suggested that Z DR provides more independent information than the other variables. The impact of polarimetric data is also expected to be larger when they are used to retrieve drop size distribution parameters. The polarimetric radar data thresholding prior to assimilation is found to be necessary to minimize the impact of noise. This study is believed to be the first to directly assimilate (simulated) polarimetric data into a numerical model.

Full access
Jung-Hee Ryu, M. Joan Alexander, and David A. Ortland

Abstract

Equatorial atmospheric waves in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), excited by latent heating, are investigated by using a global spectral model. The latent heating profiles are derived from the 3-hourly Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rain rates, which include both convective- and stratiform-type profiles. The type of heating profile is determined based on an intensity of the surface rain rate. Latent heating profiles over stratiform rain regions, estimated from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) product, are applied to derive the stratiform-type latent heating profiles from the gridded rain rate data. Monthly zonal-mean latent heating profiles derived from the rain rates appear to be reasonably comparable with the TRMM convective/stratiform heating product.

A broad spectrum of Kelvin, mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG), equatorial Rossby (ER), and inertia–gravity waves are generated in the model. Particularly, equatorial waves (Kelvin, ER, and MRG waves) of zonal wavenumbers 1–5 appear to be dominant in the UTLS. In the wavenumber–frequency domain, the equatorial waves have prominent spectral peaks in the range of 12–200 m of the equivalent depth, while the spectral peaks of the equatorial waves having shallower equivalent depth (<50 m) increase in the case where stratiform-type heating is included. These results imply that the stratiform-type heating might be relevant for the shallower equivalent depth of the observed convectively coupled equatorial waves.

The horizontal and vertical structures of the simulated equatorial waves (Kelvin, ER, and MRG waves) are in a good agreement with the equatorial wave theory and observed wave structure. In particular, comparisons of the simulated Kelvin waves and the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) satellite observation are discussed.

Full access
Kichul Jung, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, and Prashanth R. Marpu

Abstract

Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is widely used in the design of hydraulic structures at locations where streamflow records are not available. RFA estimates depend on the precise delineation of homogenous regions for accurate information transfer. This study proposes new physiographical variables based on river network features and tests their potential to improve the accuracy of hydrological feature estimates. Information about river network types is used both in the definition of homogenous regions and in the estimation process. Data from 105 river basins in arid and semiarid regions of the United States were used in our analysis. Artificial neural network ensemble models and canonical correlation analysis were used to produce flood quantile estimates, which were validated through tenfold cross and jackknife validations. We conducted analysis for model performance based on statistical indices, such as the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, root-mean-square error, relative root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, and relative mean bias. Among various combinations of variables, a model with 10 variables produced the best performance. Further, 49, 36, and 20 river networks in the 105 basins were classified as dendritic, pinnate, and trellis networks, respectively. The model with river network classification for the homogenous regions appeared to provide a superior performance compared with a model without such classification. The results indicated that including our proposed combination of variables could improve the accuracy of RFA flood estimates with the classification of the network types. This finding has considerable implications for hydraulic structure design.

Restricted access
K. Trusilova, M. Jung, G. Churkina, U. Karstens, M. Heimann, and M. Claussen

Abstract

The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of urban land on the climate in Europe on local and regional scales. Effects of urban land cover on the climate are isolated using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) with a modified land surface scheme based on the Town Energy Budget model. Two model scenarios represent responses of climate to different states of urbanization in Europe: 1) no urban areas and 2) urban land in the actual state in the beginning of the twenty-first century. By comparing the simulations of these contrasting scenarios, spatial differences in near-surface temperature and precipitation are quantified. Simulated near-surface temperatures and an urban heat island for January and July over a period of 6 yr (2000–05) agree well with corresponding measurements at selected urban areas. The conversion of rural to urban land results in statistically significant changes to precipitation and near-surface temperature over areas of the land cover perturbations. The diurnal temperature range in urbanized regions was reduced on average by 1.26° ± 0.71°C in summer and by 0.73° ± 00.54°C in winter. Inclusion of urban areas results in an increase of urban precipitation in winter (0.09 ± 00.16 mm day−1) and a precipitation reduction in summer (−0.05 ± 0.22 mm day−1).

Full access