Abstract

The interdecadal variability as simulated by coupled ocean–atmosphere models is reviewed. Emphasis is given to that class of interdecadal variability that arises from ocean–atmosphere interactions. The interdecadal variability simulated can be classified roughly into four classes: tropical interdecadal variability, interdecadal variability that involves both the Tropics and the extratropics as active regions, midlatitudinal interdecadal variability involving the wind-driven ocean gyres, and midlatitudinal interdecadal variability involving the thermohaline circulation. Several coupled models predict the existence of different interdecadal climate cycles, with periods ranging from approximately 10–50 yr. This implies some inherent predictability at decadal timescales, provided that these interdecadal cycles exist in the real climate system.

Abstract

The dependence of the air–sea interactions over the North Atlantic on the ocean dynamics is explored by analyzing multicentury integrations with two different coupled ocean–atmosphere models. One is a coupled general circulation model (CGCM), in which both the atmospheric and the oceanic components are represented by general circulation models (GCMs). The second coupled model employs the same atmospheric GCM, but the oceanic GCM is replaced by a fixed-depth mixed layer model, so that variations of the ocean dynamics are excluded. The coupled model including active ocean dynamics simulates strong multidecadal variability in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Atlantic, with a monopolar spatial structure. In contrast, the coupled model that employs an oceanic mixed layer model and thus does not carry active ocean dynamics simulates a tripolar SST anomaly pattern at decadal time scales. The tripolar SST anomaly pattern is characterized by strong horizontal gradients and is by definition the result of the action of surface heat flux anomalies on the oceanic mixed layer.

The differences in the spatial structures of the dominant decadal SST anomaly patterns yield rather different atmospheric responses. While the response to the monopolar SST anomaly pattern is shallow and thermal, the response to the tripolar SST anomaly pattern involves changes in the transient eddy statistics. The latter can be explained by the strong horizontal SST gradients that affect the surface baroclinicity, which in turn affects the growth rate of the transient eddies. The differences in the atmospheric response characteristics yield completely different response patterns. In the coupled run with active ocean dynamics, the sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies exhibit a rather homogeneous pattern that resembles somewhat the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), while a dipolar (North Atlantic Oscillation) NAO-like SLP anomaly pattern is simulated in the coupled run without active ocean dynamics.

Abstract

In this paper the performance of the global coupled general circulation model (CGCM) ECHO-2, which was integrated for 10 years without the application of flux correction, is described. Although the integration is rather short, strong and weak points of this CGCM can be clearly identified, especially in view of the model’s performance of the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific. The latter is simulated with more success relative to the earlier version, ECHO-1. A better representation of the low-level stratus clouds in the atmosphere model associated with a reduction in the shortwave radiative flux at the air–sea interface improved the coupled model’s performance in the southeastern tropical oceans, with a strongly reduced warm bias in these regions. Modifications in the atmospheric convection scheme also eliminated the AGCM’s tendency to simulate a double ITCZ, and this behavior is maintained in the CGCM simulation. Finally, a new numerical scheme for active tracer advection in the ocean model strongly reduced the numerical mixing, which seems to enhance considerably the level of interannual variability in the equatorial Pacific.

One weak point is an overall cold bias in the Tropics and midlatitudes, which typically amounts to 1°C in open ocean regions. Another weak point is the still too strong equatorial cold tongue, which penetrates too far into the western equatorial Pacific. Although this model deficiency is not as pronounced as in ECHO-1, the too strong cold tongue reduces the level of interannual rainfall variability in the western and central equatorial Pacific. Finally, the interannual fluctuations in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are too equatorially trapped, a problem that is also found in “ocean-only” simulations. Overall, however, the authors believe that the ECHO-2 CGCM has been considerably improved relative to ECHO-1.

Abstract

The dominant variability modes in the Tropics are investigated and contrasted with the anomalous situation observed during the last few years. The prime quantity analyzed is anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) in the region 30°S–60°N. Additionally, observed tropical surface wind stress fields were investigated. Further tropical atmospheric information was derived from a multidecadal run with an atmospheric general circulation model that was forced by the same SSTs. The tropical SST variability can be characterized by three modes: an interannual mode [the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)], a decadal mode, and a trend or unresolved ultra-low-frequency variability.

The dominant mode of SST variability is the ENSO mode. It is strongest in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but influences also the SSTs in other regions through atmospheric teleconnections, such as the Indian and North Pacific Oceans. The ENSO mode was strong during the 1980s, but it existed with very weak amplitude and short period after 1991. The second most energetic mode is characterized by considerable decadal variability. This decadal mode is connected with SST anomalies of the same sign in all three tropical oceans. The tropical Pacific signature of the decadal mode resembles closely that observed during the last few years and can be characterized by a horseshoe pattern, with strongest SST anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific, extending to the northeast and southeast into the subtropics. It is distinct from the ENSO mode, since it is not connected with any significant SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which is the ENSO key region. However, the impact of the decadal mode on the tropical climate resembles in many respects that of ENSO. In particular, the decadal mode is strongly linked to decadal rainfall fluctuations over northeastern Australia in the observations. It is shown that the anomalous 1990s were dominated by the decadal mode.

Considerable SST variability can be attributed also to a linear trend or unresolved ultra-low-frequency variability. This trend that might be related to greenhouse warming is rather strong and positive in the Indian Ocean and western equatorial Pacific where it accounts for up to 30% of the total SST variability. Consistent with the increase of SST in the warm pool region, the trends over the tropical Pacific derived from both the observations and the model indicate a strengthening of the trade winds. This is inconsistent with the conditions observed during the 1990s. If the wind trends reflect greenhouse warming, it must be concluded that the anomalous 1990s are not caused by greenhouse warming.

Finally, hybrid coupled ocean–atmosphere model experiments were conducted in order to investigate the sensistivity of ENSO to the low-frequency changes induced by the decadal mode and the trend. The results indicate that ENSO is rather sensitive to these changes in the background conditions.

Abstract

Climate models predict a gradual weakening of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) during the twenty-first century due to increasing levels of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Using an ensemble of 16 different coupled climate models performed for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the evolution of the MOC during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries is analyzed by combining model simulations for the IPCC scenarios Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) and Special Report on Emission Scenarios, A1B (SRESA1B). Earlier findings are confirmed that even for the same forcing scenario the model response is spread over a large range. However, no model predicts abrupt changes or a total collapse of the MOC. To reduce the uncertainty of the projections, different weighting procedures are applied to obtain “best estimates” of the future MOC evolution, considering the skill of each model to represent present day hydrographic fields of temperature, salinity, and pycnocline depth as well as observation-based mass transport estimates. Using different methods of weighting the various models together, all produce estimates that the MOC will weaken by 25%–30% from present day values by the year 2100; however, absolute values of the MOC and the degree of reduction differ among the weighting methods.

Abstract

The dynamics and predictability of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America are investigated by analyzing various observational datasets and the output of a state of the art coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model that was integrated for 125 years. Both the observations and model results support the picture that the decadal variability in the region of interest is based on a cycle involving unstable ocean–atmosphere interactions over the North Pacific. The period of this cycle is of the order of a few decades.

The cycle involves the two major circulation regimes in the North Pacific climate system, the subtropical ocean gyre, and the Aleutian low. When, for instance, the subtropical ocean gyre is anomalously strong, more warm tropical waters are transported poleward by the Kuroshio and its extension, leading to a positive SST anomaly in the North Pacific. The atmospheric response to this SST anomaly involves a weakened Aleutian low, and the associated fluxes at the air–sea interface reinforce the initial SST anomaly, so that ocean and atmosphere act as a positive feedback system. The anomalous heat flux, reduced ocean mixing in response to a weakened storm track, and anonmalous Ekman heat transport contribute to this positive feedback.

The atmospheric response, however, consists also of a wind stress curl anomaly that spins down the subtropical ocean gyre, thereby reducing the poleward heat transport and the initial SST anomaly. The ocean adjusts with some time lag to the change in the wind stress curl, and it is this transient ocean response that allows continuous oscillations. The transient response can be expressed in terms of baroclinic planetary waves, and the decadal timescale of the oscillation is therefore determined to first order by wave timescales. Advection by the mean currents, however, is not negligible.

The existence of such a cycle provides the basis of long-range climate forecasting over North America at decadal timescales. At a minimum, knowledge of the present phase of the decadal mode should allow a “now-cast” of expected climate “bias” over North America, which is equivalent to a climate forecast several years ahead.

Abstract

The authors have investigated the interactions of the tropical oceans on interannual timescales by conducting a series of uncoupled atmospheric and oceanic general circulation experiments and hybrid-coupled model simulations. The results illustrate the key role of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon in generating interannual variability in all three tropical ocean basins. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific force SST anomalies of the same sign in the Indian Ocean and SST anomalies of the opposite sign in the Atlantic via a changed atmospheric circulation. However, although air-sea interactions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans are much weaker than those in the Pacific, they contribute significantly to the variability in these two regions. The role of these air-sea interactions is mainly that of an amplifier by which the ENSO-induced signals are enhanced in the ocean and atmosphere. This process is particularly important in the tropical Atlantic region.

The authors investigated, also, whether ENSO is part of a zonally propagating “wave,” which travels around the globe with a timescale of several years. Consistent with observations, the upper-ocean heat content in the various numerical simulators seems to propagate slowly around the globe. SST anomalies in the Pacific Ocean introduce a global atmospheric response, which in turn forces variations in the other tropical oceans. Since the different oceans exhibit different response characteristics to low-frequency wind changes, the individual tropical ocean responses can add up coincidentally to look like a global wave, and that appears to be the situation. In particular, no evidence is found that the Indian Ocean can significantly affect the ENSO cycle in the Pacific. Finally, the potential for climate forecasts in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans appears to be enhanced if one includes, in a coupled way, remote influences from the Pacific.

Abstract

The response of the Max Planck Institute’s ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model to a prescribed decade-long positive anomaly in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the North Atlantic is investigated. Two 10-yr realizations of the anomaly experiment are compared against a 100-yr control run of the model with seasonally varying climatological SST using a model spatial resolution of T42. In addition to the time-mean response, particular attention is paid to changes in intraseasonal variability, expressed in terms of North Atlantic–European weather regimes. The model regimes are quite realistic.

Substantial differences are found in the 700-mb geopotential height field response between the two decadal realizations. The time-mean response in the first sample decade is characterized by the positive (zonal) phase of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO); this response can be identified with changes in the frequency of occurrence of certain weather regimes by about one standard deviation. (Preliminary results of this numerical experiment were reported at the Atlantic Climate Variability Workshop held at the Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York, 24–26 September 1997.) By contrast, the second SST anomaly decade shows a localized trough centered over the British Isles; it projects less strongly onto the model’s intrinsic weather regimes. The control run itself exhibits pronounced decade-to-decade variations in the weather regimes’ frequency of occurrence as well as in its NAO index. The two 10-yr anomaly experiments are insufficient, in length and number, to identify a robust SST response above this level of intrinsic variability.

Abstract

This review paper discusses the physical basis and the potential for decadal climate predictability over the Atlantic and its adjacent land areas. Many observational and modeling studies describe pronounced decadal and multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean. However, it still needs to be quantified to which extent the variations in the ocean drive variations in the atmosphere and over land. In particular, although a clear impact of the Tropics on the midlatitudes has been demonstrated, it is unclear if and how the extratropical atmosphere responds to midlatitudinal sea surface temperature anomalies.

Although the mechanisms behind the decadal to multidecadal variability in the Atlantic sector are still controversial, there is some consensus that some of the longer-term multidecadal variability is driven by variations in the thermohaline circulation. The variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation appear to be predictable one to two decades ahead, as shown by a number of perfect model predictability experiments. The next few decades will be dominated by these multidecadal variations, although the effects of anthropogenic climate change are likely to introduce trends. Some impact of the variations of the thermohaline circulation on the atmosphere has been demonstrated in some studies so that useful decadal predictions with economic benefit may be possible.

Abstract

The role of anomalous Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) in forcing east African rainfall anomalies during December–January 1997/98 has been investigated by means of atmospheric model response experiments. It is shown that the strong precipitation anomalies that led to severe flooding over eastern equatorial Africa can be directly related to the contemporaneous changes in the Indian Ocean’s SST. The authors’ set of ensemble experiments prescribing SST anomalies in different ocean basins indicates further that the El Niño–related SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific did not directly drive the changes in the climate over eastern Africa.