Search Results
You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for
- Author or Editor: M. R. Bush x
- Refine by Access: All Content x
Abstract
In this study comparisons are made between Met Office mesoscale model boundary layer profiles, and radiosonde data collected in the central United Kingdom during three intensive boundary layer cloud experiments. Significant differences between forecast and observed profiles were found. An assessment of whether these differences are dominated by sonde random error or model error is performed. Results suggest that sonde random errors are insignificant for stratocumulus fields, but not for cumulus ones.
Results show that model fields do not represent the fine vertical structure seen in the observations. The impact of this result for cloud prediction is discussed, and an estimate for the vertical resolution required to adequately parameterize the cloud field is provided.
Abstract
In this study comparisons are made between Met Office mesoscale model boundary layer profiles, and radiosonde data collected in the central United Kingdom during three intensive boundary layer cloud experiments. Significant differences between forecast and observed profiles were found. An assessment of whether these differences are dominated by sonde random error or model error is performed. Results suggest that sonde random errors are insignificant for stratocumulus fields, but not for cumulus ones.
Results show that model fields do not represent the fine vertical structure seen in the observations. The impact of this result for cloud prediction is discussed, and an estimate for the vertical resolution required to adequately parameterize the cloud field is provided.
Abstract
A new boundary layer turbulent mixing scheme has been developed for use in the UKMO weather forecasting and climate prediction models. This includes a representation of nonlocal mixing (driven by both surface fluxes and cloud-top processes) in unstable layers, either coupled to or decoupled from the surface, and an explicit entrainment parameterization. The scheme is formulated in moist conserved variables so that it can treat both dry and cloudy layers. Details of the scheme and examples of its performance in single-column model tests are presented.
Abstract
A new boundary layer turbulent mixing scheme has been developed for use in the UKMO weather forecasting and climate prediction models. This includes a representation of nonlocal mixing (driven by both surface fluxes and cloud-top processes) in unstable layers, either coupled to or decoupled from the surface, and an explicit entrainment parameterization. The scheme is formulated in moist conserved variables so that it can treat both dry and cloudy layers. Details of the scheme and examples of its performance in single-column model tests are presented.
Abstract
A new turbulent mixing scheme, described in Part I of this paper, is tested in the climate and mesoscale configurations of the U.K. Met. Office’s Unified Model (UM). In climate configuration, the scheme is implemented along with increased vertical resolution below 700 hPa (the same as that in the mesoscale model), in order to allow the different boundary layer types and processes to be identified and treated properly. In both configurations, the new boundary layer (PBL-N) mixing scheme produces some improvement over the current boundary layer (PBL-C) scheme. The PBL-N scheme is able to diagnose different boundary layer types that appear to be consistent with the observed conditions, and the boundary layer structure is improved in comparison with observations. In the climate model, the boundary layer and cloud structure in the semipermanent stratocumulus regions of the eastern subtropical oceans are noticeably improved with the PBL-N scheme. The deepening and decoupling of the boundary layer toward the trade cumulus regime is also simulated more realistically. However, the cloud amounts in the stratocumulus regions, which were underestimated with the PBL-C scheme, are reduced further when the PBL-N scheme is included. Tests of the PBL-N scheme in the UM single-column model and in a development version of the UM, where the dynamics, time stepping, and vertical grid are different from the standard version, both show that realistic stratocumulus cloud amounts can be achieved. Thus, it is thought that the performance of the PBL-N scheme in the standard UM may be being limited by other aspects of that model. In the mesoscale model, improvements in the simulation of a convective case are achieved with the PBL-N scheme through reductions in layer cloud amount, while the simulation of a stratocumulus case is improved through better representation of the cloud and boundary layer structure. Other mesoscale model case studies show that there is a consistent improvement in fog probabilities and forecasts of cloud-base height. The root-mean-square errors in screen-level temperature are also reduced slightly. The weak daytime bias in wind strength is improved greatly through a systematic increase in the 10-m wind speed in unstable conditions. As a result of these trials, the scheme has been implemented operationally in the mesoscale model.
Abstract
A new turbulent mixing scheme, described in Part I of this paper, is tested in the climate and mesoscale configurations of the U.K. Met. Office’s Unified Model (UM). In climate configuration, the scheme is implemented along with increased vertical resolution below 700 hPa (the same as that in the mesoscale model), in order to allow the different boundary layer types and processes to be identified and treated properly. In both configurations, the new boundary layer (PBL-N) mixing scheme produces some improvement over the current boundary layer (PBL-C) scheme. The PBL-N scheme is able to diagnose different boundary layer types that appear to be consistent with the observed conditions, and the boundary layer structure is improved in comparison with observations. In the climate model, the boundary layer and cloud structure in the semipermanent stratocumulus regions of the eastern subtropical oceans are noticeably improved with the PBL-N scheme. The deepening and decoupling of the boundary layer toward the trade cumulus regime is also simulated more realistically. However, the cloud amounts in the stratocumulus regions, which were underestimated with the PBL-C scheme, are reduced further when the PBL-N scheme is included. Tests of the PBL-N scheme in the UM single-column model and in a development version of the UM, where the dynamics, time stepping, and vertical grid are different from the standard version, both show that realistic stratocumulus cloud amounts can be achieved. Thus, it is thought that the performance of the PBL-N scheme in the standard UM may be being limited by other aspects of that model. In the mesoscale model, improvements in the simulation of a convective case are achieved with the PBL-N scheme through reductions in layer cloud amount, while the simulation of a stratocumulus case is improved through better representation of the cloud and boundary layer structure. Other mesoscale model case studies show that there is a consistent improvement in fog probabilities and forecasts of cloud-base height. The root-mean-square errors in screen-level temperature are also reduced slightly. The weak daytime bias in wind strength is improved greatly through a systematic increase in the 10-m wind speed in unstable conditions. As a result of these trials, the scheme has been implemented operationally in the mesoscale model.
Abstract
This study explores long-term deviations from wind averages, specifically near the surface across central North America and adjoining oceans (25°–50°N, 60°–130°W) for 1979–2012 (408 months) by utilizing the North American Regional Reanalysis 10-m wind climate datasets. Regions where periods of anomalous wind speeds were observed (i.e., 1 standard deviation below/above both the long-term mean annual and mean monthly wind speeds at each grid point) were identified. These two climatic extremes were classified as wind lulls (WLs; below) or wind blows (WBs; above). Major findings for the North American study domain indicate that 1) mean annual wind speeds range from 1–3 m s−1 (Intermountain West) to over 7 m s−1 (offshore the East and West Coasts), 2) mean durations for WLs and WBs are high for much of the southeastern United States and for the open waters of the North Atlantic Ocean, respectively, 3) the longest WL/WB episodes for the majority of locations have historically not exceeded 5 months, 4) WLs and WBs are most common during June and October, respectively, for the upper Midwest, 5) WLs are least frequent over the southwestern United States during the North American monsoon, and 6) no significant anomalous wind trends exist over land or sea.
Abstract
This study explores long-term deviations from wind averages, specifically near the surface across central North America and adjoining oceans (25°–50°N, 60°–130°W) for 1979–2012 (408 months) by utilizing the North American Regional Reanalysis 10-m wind climate datasets. Regions where periods of anomalous wind speeds were observed (i.e., 1 standard deviation below/above both the long-term mean annual and mean monthly wind speeds at each grid point) were identified. These two climatic extremes were classified as wind lulls (WLs; below) or wind blows (WBs; above). Major findings for the North American study domain indicate that 1) mean annual wind speeds range from 1–3 m s−1 (Intermountain West) to over 7 m s−1 (offshore the East and West Coasts), 2) mean durations for WLs and WBs are high for much of the southeastern United States and for the open waters of the North Atlantic Ocean, respectively, 3) the longest WL/WB episodes for the majority of locations have historically not exceeded 5 months, 4) WLs and WBs are most common during June and October, respectively, for the upper Midwest, 5) WLs are least frequent over the southwestern United States during the North American monsoon, and 6) no significant anomalous wind trends exist over land or sea.
