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Sujan Pal, Francina Dominguez, María Eugenia Dillon, Javier Alvarez, Carlos Marcelo Garcia, Stephen W. Nesbitt, and David Gochis

Abstract

Some of the most intense convective storms on Earth initiate near the Sierras de Córdoba mountain range in Argentina. The goal of the RELAMPAGO field campaign was to observe these intense convective storms and their associated impacts. The intense observation period (IOP) occurred during November–December 2018. The two goals of the hydrometeorological component of RELAMPAGO IOP were 1) to perform hydrological streamflow and meteorological observations in previously ungauged basins and 2) to build a hydrometeorological modeling system for hindcast and forecast applications. During the IOP, our team was able to construct the stage–discharge curves in three basins, as hydrological instrumentation and personnel were successfully deployed based on RELAMPAGO weather forecasts. We found that the flood response time in these river locations is typically between 5 and 6 h from the peak of the rain event. The satellite-observed rainfall product IMERG-Final showed a better representation of rain gauge–estimated precipitation, while IMERG-Early and IMERG-Late had significant positive bias. The modeling component focuses on the 48-h simulation of an extreme hydrometeorological event that occurred on 27 November 2018. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model and its hydrologic component WRF-Hydro as an uncoupled hydrologic model, we developed a system for hindcast, deterministic forecast, and a 60-member ensemble forecast initialized with regional-scale atmospheric data assimilation. Critically, our results highlight that streamflow simulations using the ensemble forecasting with data assimilation provide realistic flash flood forecast in terms of timing and magnitude of the peak. Our findings from this work are being used by the water managers in the region.

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María E. Dillon, Yanina García Skabar, Juan Ruiz, Eugenia Kalnay, Estela A. Collini, Pablo Echevarría, Marcos Saucedo, Takemasa Miyoshi, and Masaru Kunii

Abstract

Improving the initial conditions of short-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is one of the main goals of the meteorological community. Development of data assimilation and ensemble forecast systems is essential in any national weather service (NWS). In this sense, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) is a methodology that can satisfy both requirements in an efficient manner. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with the LETKF, developed at the University of Maryland, College Park, have been implemented experimentally at the NWS of Argentina [Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN)], but at a somewhat lower resolution (40 km) than the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) at that time (27 km). The purpose of this work is not to show that the system presented herein is better than the higher-resolution GFS, but that its performance is reasonably comparable, and to provide the basis for a continued improved development of an independent regional data assimilation and forecasting system. The WRF-LETKF system is tested during the spring of 2012, using the prepared or quality controlled data in Binary Universal Form for Representation of Meteorological Data (PREPBUFR) observations from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and lateral boundary conditions from the GFS. To assess the effect of model error, a single-model LETKF system (LETKF-single) is compared with a multischeme implementation (LETKF-multi), which uses different boundary layer and cumulus convection schemes for the generation of the ensemble of forecasts. The performance of both experiments during the test period shows that the LETKF-multi usually outperforms the LETKF-single, evidencing the advantages of the use of the multischeme approach. Both data assimilation systems are slightly worse than the GFS in terms of the synoptic environment representation, as could be expected given their lower resolution. Results from a case study of a strong convective system suggest that the LETKF-multi improves the location of the most intense area of precipitation with respect to the LETKF-single, although both systems show an underestimation of the total accumulated precipitation. These preliminary results encourage continuing the development of an operational data assimilation system based on WRF-LETKF at the SMN.

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