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Rosalind Cornforth, Douglas J. Parker, Mariane Diop-Kane, Andreas H. Fink, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Arlene Laing, Ernest Afiesimama, Jim Caughey, Aida Diongue-Niang, Abdou Kassimou, Peter Lamb, Benjamin Lamptey, Zilore Mumba, Ifeanyi Nnodu, Jerome Omotosho, Steve Palmer, Patrick Parrish, Leon-Guy Razafindrakoto, Wassila Thiaw, Chris Thorncroft, and Adrian Tompkins

Abstract

Bridging the gap between rapidly moving scientific research and specific forecasting tools, Meteorology of Tropical West Africa: The Forecasters’ Handbook gives unprecedented access to the latest science for the region’s forecasters, researchers, and students and combines this with pragmatic approaches to forecasting. It is set to change the way tropical meteorology is learned and will serve to drive demand for new forecasting tools. The Forecasters’ Handbook builds upon the legacy of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project, making the latest science applicable to forecasting in the region. By bringing together, at the outset, researchers and forecasters from across the region, and linking to applications, user communities, and decision-makers, The Forecasters’ Handbook provides a template for finding much needed solutions to critical issues such as building resilience to weather hazards and climate change in West Africa.

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Paolo M. Ruti, Oksana Tarasova, Julia H. Keller, Greg Carmichael, Øystein Hov, Sarah C. Jones, Deon Terblanche, Cheryl Anderson-Lefale, Ana P. Barros, Peter Bauer, Véronique Bouchet, Guy Brasseur, Gilbert Brunet, Phil DeCola, Victor Dike, Mariane Diop Kane, Christopher Gan, Kevin R. Gurney, Steven Hamburg, Wilco Hazeleger, Michel Jean, David Johnston, Alastair Lewis, Peter Li, Xudong Liang, Valerio Lucarini, Amanda Lynch, Elena Manaenkova, Nam Jae-Cheol, Satoru Ohtake, Nadia Pinardi, Jan Polcher, Elizabeth Ritchie, Andi Eka Sakya, Celeste Saulo, Amith Singhee, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, Andrea Steiner, Alan Thorpe, and Moeka Yamaji

Abstract

Whether on an urban or planetary scale, covering time scales of a few minutes or a few decades, the societal need for more accurate weather, climate, water, and environmental information has led to a more seamless thinking across disciplines and communities. This challenge, at the intersection of scientific research and society’s need, is among the most important scientific and technological challenges of our time. The “Science Summit on Seamless Research for Weather, Climate, Water, and Environment” organized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 2017, has brought together researchers from a variety of institutions for a cross-disciplinary exchange of knowledge and ideas relating to seamless Earth system science. The outcomes of the Science Summit, and the interactions it sparked, highlight the benefit of a seamless Earth system science approach. Such an approach has the potential to break down artificial barriers that may exist due to different observing systems, models, time and space scales, and compartments of the Earth system. In this context, the main future challenges for research infrastructures have been identified. A value cycle approach has been proposed to guide innovation in seamless Earth system prediction. The engagement of researchers, users, and stakeholders will be crucial for the successful development of a seamless Earth system science that meets the needs of society.

Free access
Paolo Ruti, Oksana Tarasova, Julia Keller, Greg Carmichael, Øystein Hov, Sarah Jones, Deon Terblanche, Cheryl Anderson-Lefale, Ana Barros, Peter Bauer, Véronique Bouchet, Guy Brasseur, Gilbert Brunet, Phil DeCola, Victor Dike, Mariane Diop Kane, Christopher Gan, Kevin Gurney, Steven Hamburg, Wilco Hazeleger, Michel Jean, David Johnston, Alastair Lewis, Peter Li, Xudong Liang, Valerio Lucarini, Amanda Lynch, Elena Manaenkova, Nam Jae-Cheol, Satoru Ohtake, Nadia Pinardi, Jan Polcher, Elizabeth Ritchie, Andi Eka Sakya, Celeste Saulo, Amith Singhee, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, Andrea Steiner, Alan Thorpe, and Moeka Yamaji
Full access
Douglas J. Parker, Alan M. Blyth, Steven J. Woolnough, Andrew J. Dougill, Caroline L. Bain, Estelle de Coning, Mariane Diop-Kane, Andre Kamga Foamouhoue, Benjamin Lamptey, Ousmane Ndiaye, Paolo Ruti, Elijah A. Adefisan, Leonard K. Amekudzi, Philip Antwi-Agyei, Cathryn E. Birch, Carlo Cafaro, Hamish Carr, Benard Chanzu, Samantha J. Clarke, Helen Coskeran, Sylvester K. Danuor, Felipe M. de Andrade, Kone Diakaria, Cheikh Dione, Cheikh Abdoulahat Diop, Jennifer K. Fletcher, Amadou T. Gaye, James L. Groves, Masilin Gudoshava, Andrew J. Hartley, Linda C. Hirons, Ishiyaku Ibrahim, Tamora D. James, Kamoru A. Lawal, John H. Marsham, J. N. Mutemi, Emmanuel Chilekwu Okogbue, Eniola Olaniyan, J. B. Omotosho, Joseph Portuphy, Alexander J. Roberts, Juliane Schwendike, Zewdu T. Segele, Thorwald H. M. Stein, Andrea L. Taylor, Christopher M. Taylor, Tanya A. Warnaars, Stuart Webster, Beth J. Woodhams, and Lorraine Youds

Abstract

Africa is poised for a revolution in the quality and relevance of weather predictions, with potential for great benefits in terms of human and economic security. This revolution will be driven by recent international progress in nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, theoretical tropical dynamics, and forecast communication, but will depend on suitable scientific investment being made. The commercial sector has recognized this opportunity and new forecast products are being made available to African stakeholders. At this time, it is vital that robust scientific methods are used to develop and evaluate the new generation of forecasts. The Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) African Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques (SWIFT) project represents an international effort to advance scientific solutions across the fields of nowcasting, synoptic and short-range severe weather prediction, subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, user engagement, and forecast evaluation. This paper describes the opportunities facing African meteorology and the ways in which SWIFT is meeting those opportunities and identifying priority next steps. Delivery and maintenance of weather forecasting systems exploiting these new solutions requires a trained body of scientists with skills in research and training, modeling and operational prediction, and communications and leadership. By supporting partnerships between academia and operational agencies in four African partner countries, the SWIFT project is helping to build capacity and capability in African forecasting science. A highlight of SWIFT is the coordination of three weather forecasting “Testbeds”—the first of their kind in Africa—which have been used to bring new evaluation tools, research insights, user perspectives, and communications pathways into a semioperational forecasting environment.

Open access
Douglas J Parker, Alan M Blyth, Steven J. Woolnough, Andrew J. Dougill, Caroline L. Bain, Estelle de Coning, Mariane Diop-Kane, Andre Kamga Foamouhoue, Benjamin Lamptey, Ousmane Ndiaye, Paolo Ruti, Elijah A. Adefisan, Leonard K Amekudzi, Philip Antwi-Agyei, Cathryn E. Birch, Carlo Cafaro, Hamish Carr, Benard Chanzu, Samantha J. Clarke, Helen Coskeran, Sylvester K. Danuor, Felipe M. de Andrade, Kone Diakaria, Cheikh Dione, Cheikh Abdoulahat Diop, Jennifer K. Fletcher, Amadou T Gaye, James L. Groves, Masilin Gudoshava, Andrew J. Hartley, Linda C. Hirons, Ishiyaku Ibrahim, Tamora D. James, Kamoru A. Lawal, John H Marsham, J N Mutemi, Emmanuel Chilekwu Okogbue, Eniola Olaniyan, J. B. Omotosho, Joseph Portuphy, Alexander J. Roberts, Juliane Schwendike, Zewdu T. Segele, Thorwald H.M. Stein, Andrea L Taylor, Christopher M Taylor, Tanya A. Warnaars, Stuart Webster, Beth J. Woodhams, and Lorraine Youds

Abstract

Africa is poised for a revolution in the quality and relevance of weather predictions, with potential for great benefits in terms of human and economic security. This revolution will be driven by recent international progress in nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, theoretical tropical dynamics and forecast communication, but will depend on suitable scientific investment being made. The commercial sector has recognized this opportunity and new forecast products are being made available to African stakeholders. At this time, it is vital that robust scientific methods are used to develop and evaluate the new generation of forecasts. The GCRF African SWIFT project represents an international effort to advance scientific solutions across the fields of nowcasting, synoptic and short-range severe weather prediction, subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, user engagement and forecast evaluation. This paper describes the opportunities facing African meteorology and the ways in which SWIFT is meeting those opportunities and identifying priority next steps.

Delivery and maintenance of weather forecasting systems exploiting these new solutions requires a trained body of scientists with skills in research and training; modelling and operational prediction; communications and leadership. By supporting partnerships between academia and operational agencies in four African partner countries, the SWIFT project is helping to build capacity and capability in African forecasting science. A highlight of SWIFT is the coordination of three weather-forecasting “Testbeds” – the first of their kind in Africa – which have been used to bring new evaluation tools, research insights, user perspectives and communications pathways into a semi-operational forecasting environment.

Full access