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Ying-Hwa Kuo
,
Marina Skumanich
,
Philip L. Haagenson
, and
Julius S. Chang

Abstract

Fourteen observing system simulation experiments (OSSE) wore conducted using the results from a mesoscale model on the Oxidation and Scavenging Characteristics of April Rains(OSCAR) experiment to test the accuracy of trajectory models. Our results indicate that the current synoptic network and observational frequency over North America are inadequate for accurate computation of long-range transport of episodic events. It appears that improving the Observational frequency would be more cost effective than improving the spatial resolution for the existing network.

Reducing the three-dimensional air flow to two dimensions leads to a substantial amount of error for air parcel trajectories. Among the three simplifying assumptions—isobaric, isosigma, and isentropic—the isentropic model gives considerably better results than the isobaric or isosigma models, especially for the vertical transport.

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Jason A. Otkin
,
Molly Woloszyn
,
Hailan Wang
,
Mark Svoboda
,
Marina Skumanich
,
Roger Pulwarty
,
Joel Lisonbee
,
Andrew Hoell
,
Mike Hobbins
,
Tonya Haigh
, and
Amanda E. Cravens

Abstract

Flash droughts, characterized by their unusually rapid intensification, have garnered increasing attention within the weather, climate, agriculture, and ecological communities in recent years due to their large environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Because flash droughts intensify quickly, they require different early warning capabilities and management approaches than are typically used for slower-developing “conventional” droughts. In this essay, we describe an integrated research-and-applications agenda that emphasizes the need to reconceptualize our understanding of flash drought within existing drought early warning systems by focusing on opportunities to improve monitoring and prediction. We illustrate the need for engagement among physical scientists, social scientists, operational monitoring and forecast centers, practitioners, and policy-makers to inform how they view, monitor, predict, plan for, and respond to flash drought. We discuss five related topics that together constitute the pillars of a robust flash drought early warning system, including the development of 1) a physically based identification framework, 2) comprehensive drought monitoring capabilities, and 3) improved prediction over various time scales that together 4) aid impact assessments and 5) guide decision-making and policy. We provide specific recommendations to illustrate how this fivefold approach could be used to enhance decision-making capabilities of practitioners, develop new areas of research, and provide guidance to policy-makers attempting to account for flash drought in drought preparedness and response plans.

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C. Bruce Baker
,
Michael Cosh
,
John Bolten
,
Mark Brusberg
,
Todd Caldwell
,
Stephanie Connolly
,
Iliyana Dobreva
,
Nathan Edwards
,
Peter E. Goble
,
Tyson E. Ochsner
,
Steven M. Quiring
,
Michael Robotham
,
Marina Skumanich
,
Mark Svoboda
,
W. Alex White
, and
Molly Woloszyn

Abstract

Soil moisture is a critical land surface variable, impacting the water, energy, and carbon cycles. While in situ soil moisture monitoring networks are still developing, there is no cohesive strategy or framework to coordinate, integrate, or disseminate these diverse data sources in a synergistic way that can improve our ability to understand climate variability at the national, state, and local levels. Thus, a national strategy is needed to guide network deployment, sustainable network operation, data integration and dissemination, and user-focused product development. The National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network (NCSMMN) is a federally led, multi-institution effort that aims to address these needs by capitalizing on existing wide-ranging soil moisture monitoring activities, increasing the utility of observational data, and supporting their strategic application to the full range of decision-making needs. The goals of the NCSMMN are to 1) establish a national “network of networks” that effectively demonstrates data integration and operational coordination of diverse in situ networks; 2) build a community of practice around soil moisture measurement, interpretation, and application—a “network of people” that links data providers, researchers, and the public; and 3) support research and development (R&D) on techniques to merge in situ soil moisture data with remotely sensed and modeled hydrologic data to create user-friendly soil moisture maps and associated tools. The overarching mission of the NCSMMN is to provide coordinated high-quality, nationwide soil moisture information for the public good by supporting applications like drought and flood monitoring, water resource management, agricultural and forestry planning, and fire danger ratings.

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