Abstract

The diurnal and seasonal variations of the northern Australian dryline are examined by constructing climatologies of low-level dynamic and thermodynamic variables taken from the high-resolution Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s Limited Area Prediction Scheme (LAPS) forecasts from 2000 to 2003. The development of the dryline is analyzed within the framework of the frontogenesis function applied to the mixing ratio and the airstream diagnostics of Cohen and Schultz. A case study of 12–13 October 2002 illustrating the airmass boundaries over the Australian region is also examined. Daytime surface heating produces sea-breeze circulations around the coast and a large inland heat trough that extends east–west along northern Australia. At night, air parcels accelerate toward low pressure, increasing convergence and deformation within the heat trough. This sharpens the moisture gradient across the tropical and continental airmass boundary into a dryline. This is different than the dryline of the Great Plains in the United States, which generally weakens overnight. The Australian dryline is strongest in spring just poleward of the Gulf of Carpentaria, where the moisture gradient across the heat trough is enhanced by the coast, and the axis of dilatation is closely aligned with mixing ratio isopleths. The dryline is weakest in winter, when the heat trough is weak. The LAPS 3-h forecasts are in good agreement with observations obtained from the Automatic Weather Station network. The 3-h forecasts capture the observed diurnal and seasonal cycle of the airmass boundaries. However, the sea-breeze circulation and ageostrophic flow into the surface heat trough is limited by the model resolution. The LAPS 3-h forecasts may therefore underestimate the nocturnal intensification of the dryline, especially since the inland moisture content is overestimated.

Abstract

The wet season of the Australian monsoon is characterized by subseasonal periods of excessively wet or dry conditions, commonly known as monsoon bursts and breaks. This study is concerned with the synoptic evolution prior to monsoon bursts, which are defined here by abrupt transitions of the area-averaged rainfall over the tropical parts of the Australian continent.

There is large variability in the number of monsoon bursts from year to year and in the time interval between consecutive monsoon bursts. Reanalysis data are used to construct a lag composite of the sequence of events prior to a monsoon burst. It is determined that a burst in the Australian monsoon is preceded by the development of a well-defined extratropical wave packet in the Indian Ocean, which propagates toward the Australian continent in the few days leading up to the onset of heavy rainfall in the tropics. As in previous studies on the monsoon onset, the extratropical disturbances propagate equatorward over the Australian continent. These extratropical systems are accompanied by lower-tropospheric airmass boundaries, which also propagate into low latitudes. Ahead of these boundaries, relatively warm moist air is advected from the surrounding oceans, locally increasing the convective available potential energy.

Commonly employed climate indices show that monsoon bursts are more likely to occur when the active phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation is in the vicinity of Australia. Neither El Niño–Southern Oscillation nor the southern annular mode has a significant impact on the occurrence of monsoon bursts.

Abstract

Although heat waves account for more premature deaths in the Australian region than any other natural disaster, an understanding of their dynamics is still incomplete. The present study identifies the dynamical mechanisms responsible for heat waves in southeastern Australia using 10-day backward trajectories computed from the ERA-Interim reanalyses. Prior to the formation of a heat wave, trajectories located over the south Indian Ocean and over Australia in the lower and midtroposphere ascend diabatically ahead of an upper-level trough and over a baroclinic zone to the south of the continent. These trajectories account for 44% of all trajectories forming the anticyclonic upper-level potential vorticity anomalies that characterize heat waves in the region. At the same time, trajectories located over the south Indian Ocean in the lower part of the troposphere descend and aggregate over the Tasman Sea. This descent is accompanied by a strong adiabatic warming. A key finding is that the temperatures are raised further through diabatic heating in the boundary layer over eastern Australia but not over the inner Australian continent. From eastern Australia, the air parcels are advected southward as they become incorporated into the near-surface anticyclone that defines the heat wave. In contrast to past studies, the importance of cloud-diabatic processes in the evolution of the midlatitude large-scale flow and the role of adiabatic compression in elevating the near-surface temperatures is emphasized. Likewise, the role of the local surface sensible heat fluxes is deemphasized.

Abstract

A high-resolution cloud model is used to explore in detail the generation of the morning glory, a low-level nonlinear atmospheric internal wave observed on the southwestern side of Cape York Peninsula (Australia). The model is two-dimensional and nonhydrostatic and simulates an east–west cross section of the southern part of Cape York Peninsula at a horizontal resolution of 200 m. Most of the numerical experiments are initialized at sunrise with a 5 m s⁻¹ easterly flow and a sounding taken upstream from the peninsula.

The sea breezes that develop over Cape York Peninsula are highly asymmetric with the east-coast sea breeze being both deeper and warmer than its western counterpart. When the sea breezes meet, the east-coast sea breeze rides over that from the west coast and in the process produces a series of waves that propagate on the west-coast sea breeze. The model calculations show that when the phase speed of these waves matches the westward propagation speed of the east-coast sea breeze, the waves grow to large amplitude, thus forming the morning glory. When the east-coast sea breeze propagates too fast relative to the waves, the waves do not amplify. In this sense the morning glory is generated by a resonant coupling between the east-coast sea breeze and the disturbances that propagate on the shallow stable layer produced by the west-coast sea breeze. The number of waves produced depends on the stability of the west-coast sea breeze and the strength of the east-coast sea breeze. These numerical experiments have for the first time explicitly modeled the generation of morning glory waves through the interaction of two sea breezes.

The inclusion of orography representative of Cape York Peninsula does not change the overall result with a morning glory forming in much the same way as in the case without orography. The main difference is that the sea breezes meet earlier when orography is included.

Abstract

This study uses a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model to examine how convectively generated gravity waves modify the environment of an isolated convective cloud. The model is initialized with an idealized sounding, and the cloud is initiated by adding a locally buoyant perturbation. The modeled convection generates a spectrum of gravity waves with vertical wavelengths that are harmonics of the depth of the troposphere. It is shown that the first three wave modes significantly modify the cloud environment.

The modification of the cloud environment is quantified in terms of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN). The first two wave modes travel fastest away from the cloud and are responsible for the changes in CAPE, whereas the third wave mode causes low-level lifting and hence a reduction in CIN. The maximum far-field perturbations in CAPE and CIN are approximately 15% and 33% of the initial background values, respectively. These results agree with previous studies of more organized convection, predicting the existence of a region surrounding the convective system that favors the development of new convection.

Abstract

An objective method for the identification of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in gridded numerical weather prediction datasets is presented. This technique uses layer- and time-averaged winds in the lower troposphere to automatically detect the location of the ITCZ and is designed for use with datasets including operational forecasts and climate model output. The method is used to create a climatology of ITCZ properties from the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) dataset for the period 1979–2009 to serve as an indicator of the technique's ability and a benchmark for future comparisons. The automatically generated objective climatology closely matches the results from subjective studies, showing a seasonal cycle in which the oceanic ITCZ migrates meridionally and the land-based ITCZ features are predominantly summertime phenomena. Composites based on the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation index show a major shift in the mean position and changes in intensity of the ITCZ in all ocean basins as the index varies. Under La Niña conditions, the ITCZ intensifies over the Maritime Continent and eastern Pacific, where the ITCZ weakens over the central and equatorial eastern Pacific. An analysis of changes in the ITCZ and its divergence during the period 1979–2009 indicates that the mean position of the ITCZ shifts southward in the western Pacific and a broad global intensification of the convergence into ITCZ regions. The relationship between tropical cyclogenesis and the ITCZ is also examined, finding that more than 50% of all tropical cyclones form within 600 km of the ITCZ.

Abstract

The dynamics of frontogenesis at upper levels are investigated using a hierarchy of three numerical models. They are, in order of decreasing sophistication, the anelastic (AN), the geostrophic momentum (GM), and the quasi-geostrophic (QG) approximations to the full equations of motion. Each model is two-dimensional and assumes the same basic-state, which incorporates the frontogenetical mechanisms of confluence and horizontal shear. The dependence of the numerical solutions on the initial vertical shear of the cross-front component of the geostrophic wind, λ, and its associated along-front temperature gradient is examined in detail. For the values of λ chosen, the along-front temperature gradient is either zero (λ = 0) or such that cold air is advected along the upper front (λ < 0).

Intercomparison of the broad-scale structure of the upper-level jet–fronts as described by the AN and GM models shows close agreement. For zero or weak shears (λ = 0 s⁻¹ or λ = −2 × 10⁻³ s⁻¹), the solutions are essentially identical. Vertical shear in the cross-front geostrophic wind serves to increase the amplitude of the cross-front circulation and displace the subsiding branch toward the warmer air. In the cases of weak or zero shear, the dominant mechanism for generating vertical vorticity at upper levels is the stretching of preexisting vertical vorticity, whereas for stronger shear (λ = −5.741 × 10⁻³ s⁻¹) the key process becomes the tilting of horizontal vorticity into the vertical by differential vertical motion. In contrast, the QG model exhibits marked differences with its AN and GM counterparts, which become even more pronounced as |λ| is increased. These differences are related largely to the neglect of vortex tilting in generating vertical vorticity in the OG model.

The GM and QG models assume cross-front thermal wind balance at all time. A posteriors examination of the numerical solutions shows this to be an excellent approximation when the vertical shear in the cross-front geostrophic wind is weak. For strong vertical shear of the cross-front geostrophic wind, the unbalanced along-front ageostrophic wind is proportional to the vertical advection of the cross-front velocity. Diagnoses of these simulations reveal thermal wind balance to be less well satisfied. It is shown that in contrast to the GM and QG models, wherein the along-front ageostrophic velocity is passive and thus cannot contribute to the evolution of the jet–front system, the unbalanced along-front flow contributes significantly to the dynamics as described by the AN model.

Abstract

We examine air parcel trajectories in the two-dimensional model for a cold front by Reeder and Smith. These are found to be in close agreement with trajectories deduced from analyses of summertime “cool changes” in southeastern Australia, adding further support to the applicability of the numerical model to this kind of cold front. The favorable comparison points also to the dynamical consistency of the conceptual model for the cool change, which has evolved from the analysis of data from observational experiments.

Abstract

The dynamics of frontal evolution is investigated in the context of the Australian summertime cool change using a two-dimensional numerical model. The model is essentially the same as that used by Reeder and Smith, but with different initial conditions and with an open (rather than periodic) flow domain. The initial conditions are an idealization of cross-sections through a typical preexisting (finite amplitude) disturbance prior to its amplification to an intense front-trough system. Basically, they consist of a warm prefrontal northerly airstream embedded in a zonal shear flow in thermal wind balance.

The model develops a quasi-steady surface cold front during the 24 hours (real time) of integration and this front is shown to have many features in common with a kinematic model of the Australian summertime cool change. The latter model was synthesized from observational data on surface cold fronts obtained during the Phase I and II field experiments of the Australian Cold Fronts Research Programme. Significant features of the model simulation are the development of a postfrontal low-level southerly airstream and the fad that low-level winds normal to the front are everywhere slower than the speed of the front: i.e., there is no region of “advected relative-flow” towards the front. Good agreement is found, including these features, between the simulated low-level wind and thermal fields and those of the kinematic model. Thus, our study provides a dynamics foundation for the kinematic model.

The model simulation and kinematic model are compared also with a 24 hour prediction of the “Ash Wednesday” cold front of 16 February 1983 using the ANMRC three-dimensional nested-grid model. This front was a classic example of a summertime cool change in southeastern Australia. Broad agreement is found between the models, provided the comparison is made south of Tasmania where the Ash Wednesday front appears to be more nearly two-dimensional.

Abstract

This paper presents a review of theoretical and observational studies relating to the low-level structure of cold fronts and explores the factors that are pertinent to frontal motion.

Observational studies have shown that, in some cases, surface cold fronts move at speeds faster than the normal component of the wind at all levels in the lower troposphere and therefore propagate. Other case studies have shown that the low-level flow immediately behind the front and normal to it is faster than the front and that the front has the local structure of a gravity current, its speed of movement being well determined by the gravity current speed equation. Them different types of behavior are related to results of recent theoretical studies, and the mechanism by which fronts can propagate is elucidated. It is shown that a necessary requirement for propagation is the existence of an alongfront temperature gradient.

We question the relevance of the gravity current speed equation in general, despite its apparent accuracy in some observed fronts, and note that it cannot be applied to the cold fronts simulated in simple frontogenesis models. The applicability of other simple frontal models providing estimates for the frontal speed is critically reviewed also.