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Michael G. Bosilovich, Ayan H. Chaudhuri, and Michel Rixen
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Adrian M. Tompkins, María Inés Ortiz De Zárate, Ramiro I. Saurral, Carolina Vera, Celeste Saulo, William J. Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Woo-Sung Lee, Johanna Baehr, Alain Braun, Amy Butler, Michel Déqué, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Margaret Gordon, Adam A. Scaife, Yukiko Imada, Masayoshi Ishii, Tomoaki Ose, Ben Kirtman, Arun Kumar, Wolfgang A. Müller, Anna Pirani, Tim Stockdale, Michel Rixen, and Tamaki Yasuda
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Roberto Buizza, Paul Poli, Michel Rixen, Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda, Michael G. Bosilovich, Stefan Brönnimann, Gilbert P. Compo, Dick P. Dee, Franco Desiato, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Masatomo Fujiwara, Andrea K. Kaiser-Weiss, Shinya Kobayashi, Zhiquan Liu, Simona Masina, Pierre-Philippe Mathieu, Nick Rayner, Carolin Richter, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Adrian J. Simmons, Jean-Noel Thépaut, Jeffrey D. Auger, Michel Bechtold, Ellen Berntell, Bo Dong, Michal Kozubek, Khaled Sharif, Christopher Thomas, Semjon Schimanke, Andrea Storto, Matthias Tuma, Ilona Välisuo, and Alireza Vaselali
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Ayrton Zadra, Keith Williams, Ariane Frassoni, Michel Rixen, Ángel F. Adames, Judith Berner, François Bouyssel, Barbara Casati, Hannah Christensen, Michael B. Ek, Greg Flato, Yi Huang, Falko Judt, Hai Lin, Eric Maloney, William Merryfield, Annelize Van Niekerk, Thomas Rackow, Kazuo Saito, Nils Wedi, and Priyanka Yadav
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Ariane Frassoni, Dayana Castilho, Michel Rixen, Enver Ramirez, João Gerd Z. de Mattos, Paulo Kubota, Alan James Peixoto Calheiros, Kevin A. Reed, Maria Assunção F. da Silva Dias, Pedro L. da Silva Dias, Haroldo Fraga de Campos Velho, Stephan R. de Roode, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Denis Eiras, Michael Ek, Silvio N. Figueroa, Richard Forbes, Saulo R. Freitas, Georg A. Grell, Dirceu L. Herdies, Peter H. Lauritzen, Luiz Augusto T. Machado, Antonio O. Manzi, Guilherme Martins, Gilvan S. Oliveira, Nilton E. Rosário, Domingo C. Sales, Nils Wedi, and Bárbara Yamada
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William J. Merryfield, Johanna Baehr, Lauriane Batté, Emily J. Becker, Amy H. Butler, Caio A. S. Coelho, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Ferranti, Tatiana Ilynia, Arun Kumar, Wolfgang A. Müller, Michel Rixen, Andrew W. Robertson, Doug M. Smith, Yuhei Takaya, Matthias Tuma, Frederic Vitart, Christopher J. White, Mariano S. Alvarez, Constantin Ardilouze, Hannah Attard, Cory Baggett, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Asmerom F. Beraki, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Roberto Bilbao, Felipe M. de Andrade, Michael J. DeFlorio, Leandro B. Díaz, Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Sam Grainger, Benjamin W. Green, Momme C. Hell, Johnna M. Infanti, Katharina Isensee, Takahito Kataoka, Ben P. Kirtman, Nicholas P. Klingaman, June-Yi Lee, Kirsten Mayer, Roseanna McKay, Jennifer V. Mecking, Douglas E. Miller, Nele Neddermann, Ching Ho Justin Ng, Albert Ossó, Klaus Pankatz, Simon Peatman, Kathy Pegion, Judith Perlwitz, G. Cristina Recalde-Coronel, Annika Reintges, Christoph Renkl, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Aaron Spring, Cristiana Stan, Y. Qiang Sun, Carly R. Tozer, Nicolas Vigaud, Steven Woolnough, and Stephen Yeager

Abstract

Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere–ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.

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