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Hyeonjae Lee, Chun-Sil Jin, Dong-Hyun Cha, Minkyu Lee, Dong-Kyou Lee, Myoung-Seok Suh, Song-You Hong, and Hyun-Suk Kang

Abstract

Future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) are analyzed using four regional climate models (RCMs) within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for East Asia. All RCMs are forced by the HadGEM2-AO under the historical and representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios, and are performed at about 50-km resolution over the CORDEX-East Asia domain. In the historical simulations (1980–2005), multi-RCM ensembles yield realistic climatology for TC tracks and genesis frequency during the TC season (June–November), although they show somewhat systematic biases in simulating TC activity. The future (2024–49) projections indicate an insignificant increase in the total number of TC genesis (+5%), but a significant increase in track density over East Asia coastal regions (+17%). The enhanced TC activity over the East Asia coastal regions is mainly related to vertical wind shear weakened by reduced meridional temperature gradient and increased sea surface temperature (SST) at midlatitudes. The future accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of total TCs increases significantly (+19%) because individual TCs have a longer lifetime (+6.6%) and stronger maximum wind speed (+4.1%) compared to those in the historical run. In particular, the ACE of TCs passing through 25°N increases by 45.9% in the future climate, indicating that the destructiveness of TCs can be significantly enhanced in the midlatitudes despite the total number of TCs not changing greatly.

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Minkyu Lee, Dong-Hyun Cha, Myoung-Seok Suh, Eun-Chul Chang, Joong-Bae Ahn, Seung-Ki Min, and Young-Hwa Byun

Abstract

This study evaluated tropical cyclone (TC) activity simulated by two regional climate models (RCMs) incorporated in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework with two different horizontal resolutions. Evaluation experiments with two RCMs (RegCM4 and MM5) forced by reanalysis data were conducted over the CORDEX-East Asia domain for phases I and II. The main difference between phases I and II is horizontal resolution (50 and 25 km). The 20-yr (1989–2008) mean performances of the experiments were investigated in terms of TC genesis, track, intensity, and TC-induced precipitation. In general, the simulated TC activities over the western North Pacific (WNP) varied depending on the model type and horizontal resolution. For both models, higher horizontal resolution improved the simulation of TC tracks near the coastal regions of East Asia, whereas the coarser horizontal resolution led to underestimated TC genesis compared with the best track data because of greater convective precipitation and enhanced atmospheric stabilization. In addition, the increased horizontal resolution prominently improved the simulation of TCs landfalling in East Asia and associated precipitation around coastal regions. This finding implies that high-resolution RCMs can improve the simulation of TC activities over the WNP (i.e., added value by increasing model resolution); thus, they have an advantage in climate change assessment studies.

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Seung-Ki Min, Min-Gyu Seong, Dong-Hyun Cha, Minkyu Lee, Fraser C. Lott, Andrew Ciavarella, Peter A. Stott, Maeng-Ki Kim, Kyung-On Boo, and Young-Hwa Byun
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