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Dongmin Kim, Myong-In Lee, and Eunkyo Seo

Abstract

The Q 10 value represents the soil respiration sensitivity to temperature often used for the parameterization of the soil decomposition process has been assumed to be a constant in conventional numerical models, whereas it exhibits significant spatial and temporal variation in the observations. This study develops a new parameterization method for determining Q 10 by considering the soil respiration dependence on soil temperature and moisture obtained by multiple regression for each vegetation type. This study further investigates the impacts of the new parameterization on the global terrestrial carbon flux. Our results show that a nonuniform spatial distribution of Q 10 tends to better represent the dependence of the soil respiration process on heterogeneous surface vegetation type compared with the control simulation using a uniform Q 10. Moreover, it tends to improve the simulation of the relationship between soil respiration and soil temperature and moisture, particularly over cold and dry regions. The modification has an impact on the soil respiration and carbon decomposition process, which changes gross primary production (GPP) through controlling nutrient assimilation from soil to vegetation. It leads to a realistic spatial distribution of GPP, particularly over high latitudes where the original model has a significant underestimation bias. Improvement in the spatial distribution of GPP leads to a substantial reduction of global mean GPP bias compared with the in situ observation-based reference data. The results highlight that the enhanced sensitivity of soil respiration to the subsurface soil temperature and moisture introduced by the nonuniform spatial distribution of Q 10 has contributed to improving the simulation of the terrestrial carbon fluxes and the global carbon cycle.

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Tomohito J. Yamada, Myong-In Lee, Masao Kanamitsu, and Hideki Kanamaru

Abstract

The diurnal characteristics of summer rainfall in the contiguous United States and northern Mexico were examined with the United States reanalysis for 5 years in 10-km horizontal resolution (US10), which is dynamically downscaled from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) Global Reanalysis 1 using the Regional Spectral Model (RSM). The hourly precipitation outputs demonstrate a realistic structure in the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes and their magnitudes across the United States without any prescriptions of the observed rainfall to the global reanalysis and the downscaled regional reanalysis. Nighttime rainfall over the Great Plains associated with eastward-propagating, mesoscale convective systems originating from the Rocky Mountains is also represented realistically in US10, while the original reanalysis and most general circulation models (GCMs) have difficulties in capturing the series of nocturnal precipitation events in summer over the Plains. The results suggest an important role of the horizontal resolution of the model in resolving small-scale, propagating convective systems to improve the diurnal cycle of summer rainfall.

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Nakbin Choi, Myong-In Lee, Dong-Hyun Cha, Young-Kwon Lim, and Kyu-Myong Kim

Abstract

The heat wave in East Asia is examined by using empirical orthogonal function analysis to isolate dominant heat-wave patterns in the ground-based temperature observations over the Korean Peninsula and China and related large-scale atmospheric circulations obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 1 during 1973–2012. This study focuses particularly on the interannual variability of heat waves and its decadal change. The analysis identifies two major atmospheric teleconnection patterns playing an important role in developing typical heat-wave patterns in East Asia—the Scandinavian (SCAND) and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns, which exhibit a significant decadal change in the interannual variability in the mid-1990s. Before the mid-1990s, heat-wave occurrence was closely related to the CGT pattern, whereas the SCAND pattern is more crucial to explain heat-wave variability in the recent period. The stationary wave model experiments suggest an intensification of the SCAND pattern in the recent period driven by an increase in land–atmosphere interaction over Eurasia and decadal change in the dominant heat-wave patterns in East Asia.

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Myong-In Lee, Max J. Suarez, In-Sik Kang, Isaac M. Held, and Daehyun Kim

Abstract

A benchmark calculation is designed to compare the climate and climate sensitivity of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The experimental setup basically follows that of the aquaplanet experiment (APE) proposed by Neale and Hoskins, but a simple mixed layer ocean is embedded to enable air–sea coupling and the prediction of surface temperature. In calculations with several AGCMs, this idealization produces very strong zonal-mean flow and exaggerated ITCZ strength, but the model simulations remain sufficiently realistic to justify the use of this framework in isolating key differences between models. Because surface temperatures are free to respond to model differences, the simulation of the cloud distribution, especially in the subtropics, affects many other aspects of the simulations. The analysis of the simulated tropical transients highlights the importance of convection inhibition and air–sea coupling as affected by the depth of the mixed layer. These preliminary comparisons demonstrate that this idealized benchmark provides a discriminating framework for understanding the implications of differing physics parameterization in AGCMs.

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Dargan M. W. Frierson, Daehyun Kim, In-Sik Kang, Myong-In Lee, and Jialin Lin

Abstract

A study of the convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) properties from a series of atmospheric general circulation model experiments over observed sea surface temperatures is presented. The simulations are performed with two different convection schemes (a mass flux scheme and a moisture convergence scheme) using a range of convective triggers, which inhibit convection in different ways. Increasing the strength of the convective trigger leads to significantly slower and more intense CCKW activity in both convection schemes. With the most stringent trigger in the mass flux scheme, the waves have realistic speed and variance and also exhibit clear shallow-to-deep-to-stratiform phase tilts in the vertical, as in observations. While adding a moisture trigger results in vertical phase tilts in the mass flux scheme, the moisture convergence scheme CCKWs show no such phase tilts even with a stringent convective trigger.

The changes in phase speed in the simulations are interpreted using the concept of “gross moist stability” (GMS). Inhibition of convection results in a more unstable tropical atmosphere in the time mean, and convection is shallower on average as well. Both of these effects lead to a smaller GMS, which leads to slower propagation of the waves, as expected from theoretical studies. Effects such as changes in radiative heating, atmospheric humidity, and vertical velocity following the wave have a relatively small effect on the GMS as compared with the time mean state determined by the convection scheme.

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Jia-Lin Lin, Myong-In Lee, Daehyun Kim, In-Sik Kang, and Dargan M. W. Frierson

Abstract

This study examines the impacts of convective parameterization and moisture convective trigger on convectively coupled equatorial waves simulated by the Seoul National University (SNU) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Three different convection schemes are used, including the simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) scheme, the Kuo (1974) scheme, and the moist convective adjustment (MCA) scheme, and a moisture convective trigger with variable strength is added to each scheme. The authors also conduct a “no convection” experiment with deep convection schemes turned off. Space–time spectral analysis is used to obtain the variance and phase speed of dominant convectively coupled equatorial waves, including the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), Kelvin, equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG), and eastward inertio-gravity (EIG) and westward inertio-gravity (WIG) waves.

The results show that both convective parameterization and the moisture convective trigger have significant impacts on AGCM-simulated, convectively coupled equatorial waves. The MCA scheme generally produces larger variances of convectively coupled equatorial waves including the MJO, more coherent eastward propagation of the MJO, and a more prominent MJO spectral peak than the Kuo and SAS schemes. Increasing the strength of the moisture trigger significantly enhances the variances and slows down the phase speeds of all wave modes except the MJO, and usually improves the eastward propagation of the MJO for the Kuo and SAS schemes, but the effect for the MCA scheme is small. The no convection experiment always produces one of the best signals of convectively coupled equatorial waves and the MJO.

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Hye-Mi Kim, Myong-In Lee, Peter J. Webster, Dongmin Kim, and Jin Ho Yoo

Abstract

The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical storm (TS) activity over the western North Pacific Ocean is examined for the period from 1981 to 2010. In El Niño years, TS genesis locations are generally shifted to the southeast relative to normal years and the passages of TSs tend to recurve to the northeast. TSs of greater duration and more intensity during an El Niño summer induce an increase of the accumulated tropical cyclone kinetic energy (ACE). Based on the strong relationship between the TS properties and ENSO, a probabilistic prediction for seasonal ACE is investigated using a hybrid dynamical–statistical model. A statistical relationship is developed between the observed ACE and large-scale variables taken from the ECMWF seasonal forecast system 4 hindcasts. The ACE correlates positively with the SST anomaly over the central to eastern Pacific and negatively with the vertical wind shear near the date line. The vertical wind shear anomalies over the central and western Pacific are selected as predictors based on sensitivity tests of ACE predictive skill. The hybrid model performs quite well in forecasting seasonal ACE with a correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted ACE at 0.80 over the 30-yr period. A relative operating characteristic analysis also indicates that the ensembles have significant probabilistic skill for both the above-normal and below-normal categories. By comparing the ACE prediction over the period from 2003 to 2011, the hybrid model appears more skillful than the forecast from the Tropical Storm Risk consortium.

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Xianan Jiang, Duane E. Waliser, Matthew C. Wheeler, Charles Jones, Myong-In Lee, and Siegfried D. Schubert

Abstract

Motivated by an attempt to augment dynamical models in predicting the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and to provide a realistic benchmark to those models, the predictive skill of a multivariate lag-regression statistical model has been comprehensively explored in the present study. The predictors of the benchmark model are the projection time series of the leading pair of EOFs of the combined fields of equatorially averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and zonal winds at 850 and 200 hPa, derived using the approach of Wheeler and Hendon. These multivariate EOFs serve as an effective filter for the MJO without the need for bandpass filtering, making the statistical forecast scheme feasible for the real-time use. Another advantage of this empirical approach lies in the consideration of the seasonal dependence of the regression parameters, making it applicable for forecasts all year-round. The forecast model exhibits useful extended-range skill for a real-time MJO forecast. Predictions with a correlation skill of greater than 0.3 (0.5) between predicted and observed unfiltered (EOF filtered) fields still can be detected over some regions at a lead time of 15 days, especially for boreal winter forecasts. This predictive skill is increased significantly when there are strong MJO signals at the initial forecast time. The analysis also shows that predictive skill for the upper-tropospheric winds is relatively higher than for the low-level winds and convection signals. Finally, the capability of this empirical model in predicting the MJO is further demonstrated by a case study of a real-time “hindcast” during the 2003/04 winter. Predictive skill demonstrated in this study provides an estimate of the predictability of the MJO and a benchmark for the dynamical extended-range models.

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Hyerim Kim, Myong-In Lee, Daehyun Kim, Hyun-Suk Kang, and Yu-Kyung Hyun

Abstract

This study examines the representation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and its teleconnection in boreal winter in the Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5 (GloSea5), using 20 years (1991–2010) of hindcast data. The sensitivity of the performance to the polarity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also investigated. The real-time multivariate MJO index of Wheeler and Hendon is used to assess MJO prediction skill while intraseasonal 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies are used to evaluate the MJO teleconnection. GloSea5 exhibits significant MJO prediction skill up to 25 days of forecast lead time. MJO prediction skill in GloSea5 also depends on initial MJO phases, with relatively enhanced (degraded) performance when the initial MJO phase is 2 or 3 (8 or 1) during the first 2 weeks of the hindcast period. GloSea5 depicts the observed MJO teleconnection patterns in the extratropics realistically up to 2 weeks albeit weaker than the observed. The ENSO-associated basic-state changes in the tropics and in the midlatitudes are reasonably represented in GloSea5. MJO prediction skill during the first 2 weeks of the hindcast is slightly higher in neutral and La Niña years than in El Niño years, especially in the upper-level zonal wind anomalies. Presumably because of the better representation of MJO-related tropical heating anomalies, the Northern Hemispheric MJO teleconnection patterns in neutral and La Niña years are considerably better than those in El Niño years.

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Donghyuck Yoon, Dong-Hyun Cha, Myong-In Lee, Ki-Hong Min, Sang-Yoon Jun, and Yonghan Choi

Abstract

South Korea’s heat wave events over 39 years (1980–2018) were defined by spatiotemporal criteria, and their quantitative characteristics were analyzed. The duration and intensity of these events ranked highest in 2016 and 2018. An examination of synoptic conditions of heat wave events in 2016 and 2018 based on a reanalysis dataset revealed a positive anomaly of 500-hPa geopotential height, which could have induced warm conditions over the Korean Peninsula in both years. However, a difference prevailed in that there was a blocking high over the Kamchatka Peninsula and a continental thermal high over northern China in 2016, while the expansion of the western North Pacific subtropical high was mainly associated with 2018 heat wave events. Numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model were conducted to 1) evaluate how distinct meteorological characteristics of heat wave events in 2016 and 2018 were reproduced by the model, and 2) investigate how they affect extreme temperature events. Typical synoptic features of the 2016 heat wave events (i.e., Kamchatka blocking and continental thermal high) were not captured well by the WRF Model, while those of 2018 were reasonably reproduced. On the contrary, the heat wave event during late August 2016 related to the Kamchatka blocking high was realistically simulated when the blocking was artificially sustained by applying spectral nudging. In conclusion, the existence of a blocking high over the Kamchatka region (i.e., northern Pacific region) is an important feature to accurately predict long-lasting heat waves in East Asia.

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