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- Author or Editor: N. L. Bindoff x
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Abstract
To understand the extent to which oceanic climate shifts could be detected, a South Pacific climatology has been used to create pseudosections of temperature, salinity, and other tracers along a zonal and meridional lines at 15°S and 90°W, respectively. Interpolations from the climatology were made using combined empirical orthogonal functions and objective mapping. Comparisons are made with independent measurements, taken in 1987, of temperature and salinity at 15°S. Temperature and salinity fields between the surface and 300 db along the 15°S section are predicted with an uncertainty sufficiently small to display significant differenccs in temperature and salinity related to El Niño of 1987. The 90°W pseudosection is a forecast of a synoptic section to be obtained as part of WOCE in 1992. Explicit values for the smallest temperature shift with depth that could be detected are produced.
Abstract
To understand the extent to which oceanic climate shifts could be detected, a South Pacific climatology has been used to create pseudosections of temperature, salinity, and other tracers along a zonal and meridional lines at 15°S and 90°W, respectively. Interpolations from the climatology were made using combined empirical orthogonal functions and objective mapping. Comparisons are made with independent measurements, taken in 1987, of temperature and salinity at 15°S. Temperature and salinity fields between the surface and 300 db along the 15°S section are predicted with an uncertainty sufficiently small to display significant differenccs in temperature and salinity related to El Niño of 1987. The 90°W pseudosection is a forecast of a synoptic section to be obtained as part of WOCE in 1992. Explicit values for the smallest temperature shift with depth that could be detected are produced.
Abstract
The large-scale volume, heat, and freshwater ocean transports in the Southern Hemisphere are investigated using time-averaged output from a seasonless, high-resolution general circulation model. The ocean circulation is realistic, and property transports are comparable to observations. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) carries 144 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) of water eastward across Drake Passage, increasing to 155 Sv south of Australia because of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). There is a clear Indo-Pacific gyre around Australia exchanging −10 Sv, 0.9 PW of heat, and 0.2 Sv of freshwater through the ITF, and there is a 9-Sv leakage from the Tasman Sea to the Indian Ocean. The transport of heat and freshwater by eddies is localized to the upper 1000 m of the water column and specific regions, such as western boundary currents, confluences, and the subantarctic front (SAF). Eddy transport of heat and freshwater is negligible in gyre interiors and south of the SAF but is vital across the northern edge of the ACC, in particular at the Agulhas Retroflection where eddies accomplish almost 100% of the net ocean heat and 60% of the southward freshwater transport. The eddy transport is almost zero across the latitude of Drake Passage while in a quasi-Lagrangian frame eddy transports are significant across the ACC but surprisingly are still smaller than the mean transport of heat. Mean and eddy property transport divergences are found to be strongly compensating in areas of high eddy activity. This is caused by increased baroclinic instability in strong mean flows, which induces an opposing eddy transport. This relationship is observed to be stronger in the case of horizontal heat transport than in corresponding horizontal freshwater transports.
Abstract
The large-scale volume, heat, and freshwater ocean transports in the Southern Hemisphere are investigated using time-averaged output from a seasonless, high-resolution general circulation model. The ocean circulation is realistic, and property transports are comparable to observations. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) carries 144 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) of water eastward across Drake Passage, increasing to 155 Sv south of Australia because of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). There is a clear Indo-Pacific gyre around Australia exchanging −10 Sv, 0.9 PW of heat, and 0.2 Sv of freshwater through the ITF, and there is a 9-Sv leakage from the Tasman Sea to the Indian Ocean. The transport of heat and freshwater by eddies is localized to the upper 1000 m of the water column and specific regions, such as western boundary currents, confluences, and the subantarctic front (SAF). Eddy transport of heat and freshwater is negligible in gyre interiors and south of the SAF but is vital across the northern edge of the ACC, in particular at the Agulhas Retroflection where eddies accomplish almost 100% of the net ocean heat and 60% of the southward freshwater transport. The eddy transport is almost zero across the latitude of Drake Passage while in a quasi-Lagrangian frame eddy transports are significant across the ACC but surprisingly are still smaller than the mean transport of heat. Mean and eddy property transport divergences are found to be strongly compensating in areas of high eddy activity. This is caused by increased baroclinic instability in strong mean flows, which induces an opposing eddy transport. This relationship is observed to be stronger in the case of horizontal heat transport than in corresponding horizontal freshwater transports.
Abstract
Using optimal fingerprinting techniques, a detection analysis is performed to determine whether observed trends in Southern Ocean sea ice extent since 1979 are outside the expected range of natural variability. Consistent with previous studies, it is found that for the seasons of maximum sea ice cover (i.e., winter and early spring), the observed trends are not outside the range of natural variability and in some West Antarctic sectors they may be partially due to tropical variability. However, when information about the spatial pattern of trends is included in the analysis, the summer and autumn trends fall outside the range of internal variability. The detectable signal is dominated by strong and opposing trends in the Ross Sea and the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Sea regions. In contrast to the observed pattern, an ensemble of 20 CMIP5 coupled climate models shows that a decrease in Ross Sea ice cover would be expected in response to external forcings. The simulated decreases in the Ross, Bellingshausen, and Amundsen Seas for the autumn season are significantly different from unforced internal variability at the 95% confidence level. Unlike earlier work, the authors formally show that the simulated sea ice response to external forcing is different from both the observed trends and simulated internal variability and conclude that in general the CMIP5 models do not adequately represent the forced response of the Antarctic climate system.
Abstract
Using optimal fingerprinting techniques, a detection analysis is performed to determine whether observed trends in Southern Ocean sea ice extent since 1979 are outside the expected range of natural variability. Consistent with previous studies, it is found that for the seasons of maximum sea ice cover (i.e., winter and early spring), the observed trends are not outside the range of natural variability and in some West Antarctic sectors they may be partially due to tropical variability. However, when information about the spatial pattern of trends is included in the analysis, the summer and autumn trends fall outside the range of internal variability. The detectable signal is dominated by strong and opposing trends in the Ross Sea and the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Sea regions. In contrast to the observed pattern, an ensemble of 20 CMIP5 coupled climate models shows that a decrease in Ross Sea ice cover would be expected in response to external forcings. The simulated decreases in the Ross, Bellingshausen, and Amundsen Seas for the autumn season are significantly different from unforced internal variability at the 95% confidence level. Unlike earlier work, the authors formally show that the simulated sea ice response to external forcing is different from both the observed trends and simulated internal variability and conclude that in general the CMIP5 models do not adequately represent the forced response of the Antarctic climate system.
Abstract
A gravest empirical mode (GEM) projection of temperature and salinity fields over the circumpolar Southern Ocean is presented and is used in combination with satellite altimetry to produce gridded, full-depth, time-evolving temperature, salinity, and velocity fields. Optimal interpolation of historical hydrography, including Argo floats, is used to produce GEM projections of the circumpolar temperature and salinity fields. Parameterizing these fields by dynamic height allows the use of altimetric SSH values from 1992–2006 to create synoptic temperature and salinity fields at weekly intervals on a ⅓° grid at 36 depth levels. The satellite-derived temperature and salinity fields generally capture over 90% of the property variance below the thermocline, with RMS residuals of 1.16°C and 0.132 in salinity at the surface, decreasing to less than 0.45°C and 0.05 below 500 dbar. The combination of altimetry with the GEM fields allows the resolution of the subsurface structure of the filamentary fronts and eddy features. Velocity fields derived from the time-evolving temperature and salinity fields reproduce the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) velocity structure well, and are strongly correlated (r > 0.7) with in situ measurements from current meters and drifters, with RMS velocity residuals of 4.8–14.8 cm−1 in the Subantarctic Front.
Abstract
A gravest empirical mode (GEM) projection of temperature and salinity fields over the circumpolar Southern Ocean is presented and is used in combination with satellite altimetry to produce gridded, full-depth, time-evolving temperature, salinity, and velocity fields. Optimal interpolation of historical hydrography, including Argo floats, is used to produce GEM projections of the circumpolar temperature and salinity fields. Parameterizing these fields by dynamic height allows the use of altimetric SSH values from 1992–2006 to create synoptic temperature and salinity fields at weekly intervals on a ⅓° grid at 36 depth levels. The satellite-derived temperature and salinity fields generally capture over 90% of the property variance below the thermocline, with RMS residuals of 1.16°C and 0.132 in salinity at the surface, decreasing to less than 0.45°C and 0.05 below 500 dbar. The combination of altimetry with the GEM fields allows the resolution of the subsurface structure of the filamentary fronts and eddy features. Velocity fields derived from the time-evolving temperature and salinity fields reproduce the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) velocity structure well, and are strongly correlated (r > 0.7) with in situ measurements from current meters and drifters, with RMS velocity residuals of 4.8–14.8 cm−1 in the Subantarctic Front.
