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Naiming Yuan and Zuntao Fu

Abstract

Large-scale variability in long historical temperature records around the North Atlantic Ocean is analyzed by means of power spectral density (PSD) analysis and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). It is found that the intensity of large-scale variability is changeable with time, and long memory analysis can be used to detect this possible intensity variation quantitatively. By estimating long-term memory (LTM) in subrecords of different time intervals, a century-scale variation of LTM is revealed, which further indicates a century-scale intensity modulation of the large-scale temperature variability. At the beginning of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, the large-scale variability is more apparent, whereas in the second half of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries the large-scale variability becomes less significant. Considering the importance of large-scale variability, the findings herein suggest a new perspective on the understanding of climatic change.

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Meixia Lv, Zhuguo Ma, and Naiming Yuan

Abstract

This study investigated the attribution of terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations across China to changes in groundwater and human water use. As one vital storage component, the groundwater storage (GWS) derived from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mass concentration solution compared reasonably well with the in situ groundwater table depth, with the correlation coefficients ranging from −0.83 to −0.18, all of which were statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. About 71% of the trends in derived GWS had the same sign as those of observations, without systematic deviation, across China. The GWS variation contributed a large portion of the TWS trend in most regions of China, and the majority of contribution values reached 50%–150% in the Hai River basin, the Loess Plateau, and the middle portion of the Yangtze River basin. The dominant role of GWS is closely related to the detected long-term “memories” in both TWS and GWS. The increase of irrigation consumption accelerated the TWS depletion trend by 13.4% in the Huai River basin, while the decrease of consumptive agricultural water use alleviated the TWS decline rate by 4.1% in the Hai River basin. Importantly, the correlation coefficients reached 0.74–0.95 between the TWS change and the residual of precipitation, evapotranspiration, flow into the sea, and irrigation consumption in the four river basins of particular interest. The findings of this study are helpful for understanding regional water cycles in China.

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Naiming Yuan, Minghu Ding, Yan Huang, Zuntao Fu, Elena Xoplaki, and Juerg Luterbacher

Abstract

In this study, observed temperature records of 12 stations from Antarctica island, coastline, and continental areas are analyzed by means of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). After Monte Carlo significance tests, different long-term climate memory (LTM) behaviors are found: temperatures from coastal and island stations are characterized by significant long-term climate memory whereas temperatures over the Antarctic continent behave more like white noise, except for the Byrd station, which is located in the West Antarctica. It is argued that the emergence of LTM may be dominated by the interactions between local weather system and external slow-varying systems (ocean), and therefore the different LTM behaviors between temperatures over the Byrd station and that over other continental stations can be considered as a reflection of the different climatic environments between West and East Antarctica. By calculating the trend significance with the effect of LTM taken into account, and further comparing the results with those obtained from assumptions of autoregressive (AR) process and white noise, it is found that 1) most of the Antarctic stations do not show any significant trends over the past several decades, and 2) more rigorous trend evaluation can be obtained if the effect of LTM is considered. Therefore, it is emphasized that for air temperatures over Antarctica, especially for the Antarctica coastline, island, and the west continental areas, LTM is nonnegligible for trend evaluation.

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