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P. S. Srivastava

Abstract

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Suryachandra A. Rao, B. N. Goswami, A. K. Sahai, E. N. Rajagopal, P. Mukhopadhyay, M. Rajeevan, S. Nayak, L. S. Rathore, S. S. C. Shenoi, K. J. Ramesh, R. S. Nanjundiah, M. Ravichandran, A. K. Mitra, D. S. Pai, S. K. R. Bhowmik, A. Hazra, S. Mahapatra, S. K. Saha, H. S. Chaudhari, S. Joseph, P. Sreenivas, S. Pokhrel, P. A. Pillai, R. Chattopadhyay, M. Deshpande, R. P. M. Krishna, Renu S. Das, V. S. Prasad, S. Abhilash, S. Panickal, R. Krishnan, S. Kumar, D. A. Ramu, S. S. Reddy, A. Arora, T. Goswami, A. Rai, A. Srivastava, M. Pradhan, S. Tirkey, M. Ganai, R. Mandal, A. Dey, S. Sarkar, S. Malviya, A. Dhakate, K. Salunke, and Parvinder Maini

Abstract

In spite of the summer monsoon’s importance in determining the life and economy of an agriculture-dependent country like India, committed efforts toward improving its prediction and simulation have been limited. Hence, a focused mission mode program Monsoon Mission (MM) was founded in 2012 to spur progress in this direction. This article explains the efforts made by the Earth System Science Organization (ESSO), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India, in implementing MM to develop a dynamical prediction framework to improve monsoon prediction. Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and the Met Office Unified Model (UM) were chosen as the base models. The efforts in this program have resulted in 1) unparalleled skill of 0.63 for seasonal prediction of the Indian monsoon (for the period 1981–2010) in a high-resolution (∼38 km) seasonal prediction system, relative to present-generation seasonal prediction models; 2) extended-range predictions by a CFS-based grand multimodel ensemble (MME) prediction system; and 3) a gain of 2-day lead time from very high-resolution (12.5 km) Global Forecast System (GFS)-based short-range predictions up to 10 days. These prediction skills are on par with other global leading weather and climate centers, and are better in some areas. Several developmental activities like coupled data assimilation, changes in convective parameterization, cloud microphysics schemes, and parameterization of land surface processes (including snow and sea ice) led to the improvements such as reducing the strong model biases in the Indian summer monsoon simulation and elsewhere in the tropics.

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Tim Li, Abdallah Abida, Laura S. Aldeco, Eric J. Alfaro, Lincoln M. Alves, Jorge A. Amador, B. Andrade, Julian Baez, M. Yu. Bardin, Endalkachew Bekele, Eric Broedel, Brandon Bukunt, Blanca Calderón, Jayaka D. Campbell, Diego A. Campos Diaz, Gilma Carvajal, Elise Chandler, Vincent. Y. S. Cheng, Chulwoon Choi, Leonardo A. Clarke, Kris Correa, Felipe Costa, A. P. Cunha, Mesut Demircan, R. Dhurmea, Eliecer A. Díaz, M. ElKharrim, Bantwale D. Enyew, Jhan C. Espinoza, Amin Fazl-Kazem, Nava Fedaeff, Z. Feng, Chris Fenimore, S. D. Francis, Karin Gleason, Charles “Chip” P. Guard, Indra Gustari, S. Hagos, Richard R. Heim Jr., Rafael Hernández, Hugo G. Hidalgo, J. A. Ijampy, Annie C. Joseph, Guillaume Jumaux, Khadija Kabidi, Johannes W. Kaiser, Pierre-Honore Kamsu-Tamo, John Kennedy, Valentina Khan, Mai Van Khiem, Khatuna Kokosadze, Natalia N. Korshunova, Andries C. Kruger, Nato Kutaladze, L. Labbé, Mónika Lakatos, Hoang Phuc Lam, Mark A. Lander, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, T. C. Lee, Kinson H. Y. Leung, Andrew D. Magee, Jostein Mamen, José A. Marengo, Dora Marín, Charlotte McBride, Lia Megrelidze, Noelia Misevicius, Y. Mochizuki, Aurel Moise, Jorge Molina-Carpio, Natali Mora, Awatif E. Mostafa, uan José Nieto, Lamjav Oyunjargal, Reynaldo Pascual Ramírez, Maria Asuncion Pastor Saavedra, Uwe Pfeifroth, David Phillips, Madhavan Rajeevan, Andrea M. Ramos, Jayashree V. Revadekar, Miliaritiana Robjhon, Ernesto Rodriguez Camino, Esteban Rodriguez Guisado, Josyane Ronchail, Benjamin Rösner, Roberto Salinas, Amal Sayouri, Carl J. Schreck III, Serhat Sensoy, A. Shimpo, Fatou Sima, Adam Smith, Jacqueline Spence, Sandra Spillane, Arne Spitzer, A. K. Srivastava, José L. Stella, Kimberly A. Stephenson, Tannecia S. Stephenson, Michael A. Taylor, Wassila Thiaw, Skie Tobin, Dennis Todey, Katja Trachte, Adrian R. Trotman, Gerard van der Schrier, Cedric J. Van Meerbeeck, Ahad Vazifeh, José Vicencio Veloso, Wei Wang, Fei Xin, Peiqun Zhang, Zhiwei Zhu, and Jonas Zucule
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