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Abstract
Structure and correlation functions are used to describe atmospheric variability during the 10–11 April day of AVE–SESAME 1979 that coincided with the Red River Valley tornado outbreak. The special mesoscale rawinsonde data are employed in calculations involving temperature, geopotential height, horizontal wind speed and mixing ratio. Functional analyses are performed in both the lower and upper troposphere for the composite 24 h experiment period and at individual 3 h observation times.
Results show that mesoscale features are prominent during the composite period. Fields of mixing ratio and horizontal wind speed exhibit the greatest amounts of small-scale variance, whereas temperature and geopotential height contain the least. Results for the nine individual times show that small-scale variance is greatest during the convective outbreak. The functions also are used to estimate random errors in the rawinsonde data. Finally, sensitivity analyses are presented to quantify confidence limits of the structure functions.
Abstract
Structure and correlation functions are used to describe atmospheric variability during the 10–11 April day of AVE–SESAME 1979 that coincided with the Red River Valley tornado outbreak. The special mesoscale rawinsonde data are employed in calculations involving temperature, geopotential height, horizontal wind speed and mixing ratio. Functional analyses are performed in both the lower and upper troposphere for the composite 24 h experiment period and at individual 3 h observation times.
Results show that mesoscale features are prominent during the composite period. Fields of mixing ratio and horizontal wind speed exhibit the greatest amounts of small-scale variance, whereas temperature and geopotential height contain the least. Results for the nine individual times show that small-scale variance is greatest during the convective outbreak. The functions also are used to estimate random errors in the rawinsonde data. Finally, sensitivity analyses are presented to quantify confidence limits of the structure functions.
Abstract
Statistical structure functions are used to evaluate sounding data from the 6–7 March day of the 1982 AVE/VAS Ground Truth Field Experiment. Functional analyses are performed for five observation times starting at 1200 GMT 6 March and ending at 0000 GMT 7 March, and for the composite 12 h period. Data consist of mesoscale soundings from a special ground truth rawinsonde network and VAS-derived soundings from both a physical algorithm and a regression technique. The standard parameters of temperature, geopotential height, and mixing ratio are evaluated at the 850, 700, 500, 300 and 200 mb levels. Integrated parameters of thickness and precipitable water also are investigated.
Using structure function analyses, estimates of root-mean-square (rms) data uncertainty are obtained for the three data sources. Then, VAS soundings from the physical retrieval scheme are compared with those from the regression technique. Results indicate that both schemes have similar error characteristics and capabilities for determining gradients of mesoscale temperature and geopotential height. Signal-to-noise ratios for these parameters were quite favorable and greater than those of mixing ratio. Finally, sounding retrievals are evaluated against those from the ground-truth rawinsonde network. These results show that the VAS data generally describe weaker gradients than observed with the radiosondes. A notable exception is physically-derived mixing ratio at 850 mb.
Abstract
Statistical structure functions are used to evaluate sounding data from the 6–7 March day of the 1982 AVE/VAS Ground Truth Field Experiment. Functional analyses are performed for five observation times starting at 1200 GMT 6 March and ending at 0000 GMT 7 March, and for the composite 12 h period. Data consist of mesoscale soundings from a special ground truth rawinsonde network and VAS-derived soundings from both a physical algorithm and a regression technique. The standard parameters of temperature, geopotential height, and mixing ratio are evaluated at the 850, 700, 500, 300 and 200 mb levels. Integrated parameters of thickness and precipitable water also are investigated.
Using structure function analyses, estimates of root-mean-square (rms) data uncertainty are obtained for the three data sources. Then, VAS soundings from the physical retrieval scheme are compared with those from the regression technique. Results indicate that both schemes have similar error characteristics and capabilities for determining gradients of mesoscale temperature and geopotential height. Signal-to-noise ratios for these parameters were quite favorable and greater than those of mixing ratio. Finally, sounding retrievals are evaluated against those from the ground-truth rawinsonde network. These results show that the VAS data generally describe weaker gradients than observed with the radiosondes. A notable exception is physically-derived mixing ratio at 850 mb.
Abstract
The distribution of temperatures in the wintertime polar stratosphere is significantly positively skewed, which has important implications for the characteristics of ozone chemistry and stratosphere–troposphere coupling. The typical argument for why the temperature distribution is skewed is that radiative balance sets a firm lower limit, while planetary wave driving can force much larger positive anomalies in temperature. However, the distribution of the upward Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux is also positively skewed, and this suggests that dynamics may play an important role in setting the skewness of the temperature distribution. This study explains the skewness of the upward EP flux distribution by appealing to the ideas of linear interference. In this framework, fluxes are decomposed into a linear term (LIN) that measures the coherence of the wave anomaly and the climatological wave and an additional nonlinear term (NONLIN) that depends only on the wave anomaly. It is shown that when filtered by wavenumber, there is a clear nonlinear dependence between LIN and NONLIN: the terms cancel when LIN is negative, but they reinforce each other when LIN is positive. This leads to the positive skewness of the upward wave activity flux. A toy model of wave interference is constructed, and it is shown that the westward vertical tilt of the climatological wave is the key ingredient to a positively skewed upward EP flux distribution. The causes of the skews of the LIN and NONLIN distributions themselves are shown to be related to relationships between wave phase and amplitude, and wave phase and vertical tilt, respectively.
Abstract
The distribution of temperatures in the wintertime polar stratosphere is significantly positively skewed, which has important implications for the characteristics of ozone chemistry and stratosphere–troposphere coupling. The typical argument for why the temperature distribution is skewed is that radiative balance sets a firm lower limit, while planetary wave driving can force much larger positive anomalies in temperature. However, the distribution of the upward Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux is also positively skewed, and this suggests that dynamics may play an important role in setting the skewness of the temperature distribution. This study explains the skewness of the upward EP flux distribution by appealing to the ideas of linear interference. In this framework, fluxes are decomposed into a linear term (LIN) that measures the coherence of the wave anomaly and the climatological wave and an additional nonlinear term (NONLIN) that depends only on the wave anomaly. It is shown that when filtered by wavenumber, there is a clear nonlinear dependence between LIN and NONLIN: the terms cancel when LIN is negative, but they reinforce each other when LIN is positive. This leads to the positive skewness of the upward wave activity flux. A toy model of wave interference is constructed, and it is shown that the westward vertical tilt of the climatological wave is the key ingredient to a positively skewed upward EP flux distribution. The causes of the skews of the LIN and NONLIN distributions themselves are shown to be related to relationships between wave phase and amplitude, and wave phase and vertical tilt, respectively.
Abstract
This study updates a body of literature that aims to separate atmospheric disturbances into standing and traveling zonal wave components. Classical wavenumber–frequency analysis decomposes longitude- and time-dependent signals into contributions from distinct spatial and temporal scales. Here, an additional decomposition of the spectrum into standing and traveling components is described. Previous methods decompose the power spectrum into standing and traveling parts with no explicit allowance for covariance between the two. This study provides a simple method to calculate the variance of each of these components and the covariance between them. It is shown that this covariance is typically a significant portion of the variance of the total signal. The approach also preserves phase information and allows for the reconstruction of the real-space standing and traveling components.
The technique is applied to reanalysis wintertime geopotential height anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in order to investigate planetary wave interference effects in stratosphere–troposphere coupling. The results show that for planetary waves 1–3, standing waves explain the largest portion of the variance at low frequencies. An exception is for wave 1 in the high-latitude troposphere, where there is a strong westward-traveling wave. Furthermore, the antinodes of the standing waves have preferred longitudes that tend to align with the extremes of the climatological wave, suggesting that standing waves contribute to a linear interference effect that has been shown to be an important part of stratosphere–troposphere interactions.
Abstract
This study updates a body of literature that aims to separate atmospheric disturbances into standing and traveling zonal wave components. Classical wavenumber–frequency analysis decomposes longitude- and time-dependent signals into contributions from distinct spatial and temporal scales. Here, an additional decomposition of the spectrum into standing and traveling components is described. Previous methods decompose the power spectrum into standing and traveling parts with no explicit allowance for covariance between the two. This study provides a simple method to calculate the variance of each of these components and the covariance between them. It is shown that this covariance is typically a significant portion of the variance of the total signal. The approach also preserves phase information and allows for the reconstruction of the real-space standing and traveling components.
The technique is applied to reanalysis wintertime geopotential height anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere in order to investigate planetary wave interference effects in stratosphere–troposphere coupling. The results show that for planetary waves 1–3, standing waves explain the largest portion of the variance at low frequencies. An exception is for wave 1 in the high-latitude troposphere, where there is a strong westward-traveling wave. Furthermore, the antinodes of the standing waves have preferred longitudes that tend to align with the extremes of the climatological wave, suggesting that standing waves contribute to a linear interference effect that has been shown to be an important part of stratosphere–troposphere interactions.
Abstract
Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex strength variability is known to be largely driven by persistent anomalies in upward wave activity flux. It has also been shown that attenuation and amplification of the stationary wave is the primary way in which wave activity flux varies. This study determines the structure of the wave anomalies that interfere with the climatological wave and drive this variability. Using a recently developed spectral decomposition it is shown that fixed-node standing waves are the primary drivers of the “linear interference” phenomenon. This is particularly true for the low-frequency component of the upward wave activity flux. The linear part of the flux is shown to be more persistent than the total flux and has significant tropospheric standing wave precursors that lead changes in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. Evidence is presented that current-generation high-top climate models are able to credibly simulate this variability in wave activity fluxes and the connection to polar vortex strength. Finally, the precursors to displacement and split sudden stratospheric warmings are examined. Displacement events are found to be preceded by about 25 days of anomalously high upward wave activity flux forced by standing waves amplifying the climatology. Split events have more short-lived wave activity flux precursors, which are dominated by the nonlinear part of the flux.
Abstract
Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex strength variability is known to be largely driven by persistent anomalies in upward wave activity flux. It has also been shown that attenuation and amplification of the stationary wave is the primary way in which wave activity flux varies. This study determines the structure of the wave anomalies that interfere with the climatological wave and drive this variability. Using a recently developed spectral decomposition it is shown that fixed-node standing waves are the primary drivers of the “linear interference” phenomenon. This is particularly true for the low-frequency component of the upward wave activity flux. The linear part of the flux is shown to be more persistent than the total flux and has significant tropospheric standing wave precursors that lead changes in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. Evidence is presented that current-generation high-top climate models are able to credibly simulate this variability in wave activity fluxes and the connection to polar vortex strength. Finally, the precursors to displacement and split sudden stratospheric warmings are examined. Displacement events are found to be preceded by about 25 days of anomalously high upward wave activity flux forced by standing waves amplifying the climatology. Split events have more short-lived wave activity flux precursors, which are dominated by the nonlinear part of the flux.
Abstract
A technique is presented for generating convective tendency products by combining satellite images with observations of cloud-to-ground lightning activity. Rapid scan (5-min) infrared satellite images are used to define the areal distribution of convection. Lightning flash rate trends provide diagnostic and predictive information pertaining to the growth and decay of the thunderstorms. A single derived product from these data can show the location of the lightning activity and convective cores, the spatial distribution of convective rainfall, the remaining cloudy and statiform rain areas, and the growing and decaying storms. Examples are given to illustrate how the flash rate trend may produce a much different and more useful portrayal of storm evolution than the time rate-of-change change of cloud-top blackbody temperatures. This difference can be exacerbated in mesoscale convective weather systems where the cirrus debris can mask the life history of the embedded convective elements.
Abstract
A technique is presented for generating convective tendency products by combining satellite images with observations of cloud-to-ground lightning activity. Rapid scan (5-min) infrared satellite images are used to define the areal distribution of convection. Lightning flash rate trends provide diagnostic and predictive information pertaining to the growth and decay of the thunderstorms. A single derived product from these data can show the location of the lightning activity and convective cores, the spatial distribution of convective rainfall, the remaining cloudy and statiform rain areas, and the growing and decaying storms. Examples are given to illustrate how the flash rate trend may produce a much different and more useful portrayal of storm evolution than the time rate-of-change change of cloud-top blackbody temperatures. This difference can be exacerbated in mesoscale convective weather systems where the cirrus debris can mask the life history of the embedded convective elements.
Abstract
Two new primary ice-nucleation parameterizations are examined in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) cloud model via sensitivity tests on a wintertime precipitation event in the Sierra Nevada region. A model combining the effects of deposition and condensation-freezing nucleation is formulated based on data obtained from continuous-flow diffusion chambers. The data indicate an exponential variation of ice-nuclei concentrations with ice supersaturation reasonably independent of temperatures between −7° and −20°C. Predicted ice concentrations from these measurements exceed values predicted by the widely used temperatures dependent Fletcher approximation by as much as one order of magnitude at temperatures warmer than −20°C. A contact-freezing nucleation model is also formulated based on laboratory data gathered by various authors using techniques that isolated this nucleation mode. Predicted contact nuclei concentrations based on the newer measurements are as much as three orders of magnitude less than values estimated by Young's model, which has been widely used for predicted schemes.
Simulations of the orographic precipitation event over the Sierra Nevada indicate that the pristine ice fields are very sensitive to the changes in the ice-nucleation formulation, with the pristine ice field resulting from the new formulation comparing much better to the observed magnitudes and structure from the case study. Deposition-condensation-freezing nucleation dominates contact-freezing nucleation in the new scheme, except in the downward branch of the mountain wave, where contact freezing dominates in the evaporating cloud. Secondary ice production is more dominant at warm temperatures in the new scheme, producing more pristine ice crystals over the barrier. The old contact-freezing nucleation scheme overpredicts pristine ice-crystal concentrations, which depletes cloud water available for secondary ice production. The effect of the new parameterizations on the precipitating hydrometeors is substantial with nearly a 10% increase in precipitation across the domain. Graupel precipitation increased dramatically due to more cloud water available with the new scheme.
Abstract
Two new primary ice-nucleation parameterizations are examined in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) cloud model via sensitivity tests on a wintertime precipitation event in the Sierra Nevada region. A model combining the effects of deposition and condensation-freezing nucleation is formulated based on data obtained from continuous-flow diffusion chambers. The data indicate an exponential variation of ice-nuclei concentrations with ice supersaturation reasonably independent of temperatures between −7° and −20°C. Predicted ice concentrations from these measurements exceed values predicted by the widely used temperatures dependent Fletcher approximation by as much as one order of magnitude at temperatures warmer than −20°C. A contact-freezing nucleation model is also formulated based on laboratory data gathered by various authors using techniques that isolated this nucleation mode. Predicted contact nuclei concentrations based on the newer measurements are as much as three orders of magnitude less than values estimated by Young's model, which has been widely used for predicted schemes.
Simulations of the orographic precipitation event over the Sierra Nevada indicate that the pristine ice fields are very sensitive to the changes in the ice-nucleation formulation, with the pristine ice field resulting from the new formulation comparing much better to the observed magnitudes and structure from the case study. Deposition-condensation-freezing nucleation dominates contact-freezing nucleation in the new scheme, except in the downward branch of the mountain wave, where contact freezing dominates in the evaporating cloud. Secondary ice production is more dominant at warm temperatures in the new scheme, producing more pristine ice crystals over the barrier. The old contact-freezing nucleation scheme overpredicts pristine ice-crystal concentrations, which depletes cloud water available for secondary ice production. The effect of the new parameterizations on the precipitating hydrometeors is substantial with nearly a 10% increase in precipitation across the domain. Graupel precipitation increased dramatically due to more cloud water available with the new scheme.
Abstract
An effort to improve descriptions of ice initiation processes of relevance to cirrus clouds for use in regional-scale numerical cloud models with bulk microphysical schemes is described. This is approached by deriving practical parameterizations of the process of ice initiation by homogeneous freezing of cloud and haze (CCN) particles in the atmosphere. The homogeneous freezing formulations may be used with generalized distributions of cloud water and CCN (pure ammonium sulfate assumed). Numerical cloud model sensitivity experiments were made using a microphysical parcel model and a mososcale cloud model to investigate the impact of the homogeneous freezing process and heterogeneous ice nucleation processes on the formation and makeup of cirrus clouds. These studies point out the critical nature of assumptions made regarding the abundance and character of heterogeneous ice nuclei (IN) present in the upper troposphere. Conclusions regarding the sources of ice crystals in cirrus clouds and the potential impact of human activities on these populations must await further measurements of CCN and particularly IN in upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric regions.
Abstract
An effort to improve descriptions of ice initiation processes of relevance to cirrus clouds for use in regional-scale numerical cloud models with bulk microphysical schemes is described. This is approached by deriving practical parameterizations of the process of ice initiation by homogeneous freezing of cloud and haze (CCN) particles in the atmosphere. The homogeneous freezing formulations may be used with generalized distributions of cloud water and CCN (pure ammonium sulfate assumed). Numerical cloud model sensitivity experiments were made using a microphysical parcel model and a mososcale cloud model to investigate the impact of the homogeneous freezing process and heterogeneous ice nucleation processes on the formation and makeup of cirrus clouds. These studies point out the critical nature of assumptions made regarding the abundance and character of heterogeneous ice nuclei (IN) present in the upper troposphere. Conclusions regarding the sources of ice crystals in cirrus clouds and the potential impact of human activities on these populations must await further measurements of CCN and particularly IN in upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric regions.
Abstract
Ice initiation by specific cloud seeding aerosols, quantified in laboratory studies, has been formulated for use in mesoscale numerical cloud models. This detailed approach, which explicitly represents artificial ice nuclei activation, is unique for mesoscale simulators of cloud seeding. This new scheme was applied in the simulation of an orographic precipitation event seeded with the specific aerosols on 18 December 1986 from the Sierra Cooperative Pilot Project using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Total ice concentrations formed following seeding agreed well with observations. RAMS's three-dimensional results showed that the new seeding parameterization impacted the microphysical fields producing increased pristine ice crystal, aggregate, and graupel mass downstream of the seeded regions. Pristine ice concentration also increased as much as an order of magnitude in some locations due to seeding. Precipitation augmentation due to the seeding was 0.1–0.7 mm, similar to values inferred from the observations. Simulated precipitation enhancement occurred due to increased precipitation efficiency since no large precipitation deficits occurred in the simulation. These maxima were collocated with regions of supercooled liquid water where nucleation by man-made ice nucleus aerosols was optimized.
Abstract
Ice initiation by specific cloud seeding aerosols, quantified in laboratory studies, has been formulated for use in mesoscale numerical cloud models. This detailed approach, which explicitly represents artificial ice nuclei activation, is unique for mesoscale simulators of cloud seeding. This new scheme was applied in the simulation of an orographic precipitation event seeded with the specific aerosols on 18 December 1986 from the Sierra Cooperative Pilot Project using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Total ice concentrations formed following seeding agreed well with observations. RAMS's three-dimensional results showed that the new seeding parameterization impacted the microphysical fields producing increased pristine ice crystal, aggregate, and graupel mass downstream of the seeded regions. Pristine ice concentration also increased as much as an order of magnitude in some locations due to seeding. Precipitation augmentation due to the seeding was 0.1–0.7 mm, similar to values inferred from the observations. Simulated precipitation enhancement occurred due to increased precipitation efficiency since no large precipitation deficits occurred in the simulation. These maxima were collocated with regions of supercooled liquid water where nucleation by man-made ice nucleus aerosols was optimized.
Abstract
Television photos of smoke plumes an analyzed to estimate meridional wind shear on the space shuttle Challenger associated with the accident of Mission 51-L. Gust velocities were obtained by detailed examination of the debris trails. The shuttle exhaust trail was used to establish altitudes of significant features in the photographs. Wind data obtained from the photographs compare favorably with data obtained from a rawinsonde released 9 min after the launch of the shuttle.
Abstract
Television photos of smoke plumes an analyzed to estimate meridional wind shear on the space shuttle Challenger associated with the accident of Mission 51-L. Gust velocities were obtained by detailed examination of the debris trails. The shuttle exhaust trail was used to establish altitudes of significant features in the photographs. Wind data obtained from the photographs compare favorably with data obtained from a rawinsonde released 9 min after the launch of the shuttle.
