Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

  • Author or Editor: Peter A. Stott x
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society x
  • Refine by Access: All Content x
Clear All Modify Search
Thomas C. Peterson, Peter A. Stott, and Stephanie Herring

Attribution of extreme events shortly after their occurrence stretches the current state-of-theart of climate change assessment. To help foster the growth of this science, this article illustrates some approaches to answering questions about the role of human factors, and the relative role of different natural factors, for six specific extreme weather or climate events of 2011.

Not every event is linked to climate change. The rainfall associated with the devastating Thailand floods can be explained by climate variability. But long-term warming played a part in the others. While La Niña contributed to the failure of the rains in the Horn of Africa, an increased frequency of such droughts there was linked to warming in the Western Pacific– Indian Ocean warm pool. Europe's record warm temperatures would probably not have been as unusual if the high temperatures had been caused only by the atmospheric flow regime without any long-term warming.

Calculating how the odds of a particular extreme event have changed provides a means of quantifying the influence of climate change on the event. The heatwave that affected Texas has become distinctly more likely than 40 years ago. In the same vein, the likelihood of very warm November temperatures in the UK has increased substantially since the 1960s.

Comparing climate model simulations with and without human factors shows that the cold UK winter of 2010/2011 has become about half as likely as a result of human influence on climate, illustrating that some extreme events are becoming less likely due to climate change.

Full access
Thomas C. Peterson, Martin P. Hoerling, Peter A. Stott, and Stephanie C. Herring
Full access
Stephanie C. Herring, Martin P. Hoerling, Thomas C. Peterson, and Peter A. Stott
Full access
Stephanie C. Herring, Martin P. Hoerling, James P. Kossin, Thomas C. Peterson, and Peter A. Stott

Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.

Full access
Stephanie C. Herring, Andrew Hoell, Martin P. Hoerling, James P. Kossin, Carl J. Schreck III, and Peter A. Stott

Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the Explaining Extreme Events of 2015 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.

Full access
Adam A. Scaife, Elizabeth Good, Ying Sun, Zhongwei Yan, Nick Dunstone, Hong-Li Ren, Chaofan Li, Riyu Lu, Peili Wu, Zongjian Ke, Zhuguo Ma, Kalli Furtado, Tongwen Wu, Tianjun Zhou, Tyrone Dunbar, Chris Hewitt, Nicola Golding, Peiqun Zhang, Rob Allan, Kirstine Dale, Fraser C. Lott, Peter A. Stott, Sean Milton, Lianchun Song, and Stephen Belcher


We present results from the first 6 years of this major U.K. government funded project to accelerate and enhance collaborative research and development in climate science, forge a strong strategic partnership between U.K. and Chinese climate scientists, and demonstrate new climate services developed in partnership. The development of novel climate services is described in the context of new modeling and prediction capability, enhanced understanding of climate variability and change, and improved observational datasets. Selected highlights are presented from over 300 peer reviewed studies generated jointly by U.K. and Chinese scientists within this project. We illustrate new observational datasets for Asia and enhanced capability through training workshops on the attribution of climate extremes to anthropogenic forcing. Joint studies on the dynamics and predictability of climate have identified new opportunities for skillful predictions of important aspects of Chinese climate such as East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. In addition, the development of improved modeling capability has led to profound changes in model computer codes and climate model configurations, with demonstrable increases in performance. We also describe the successes and difficulties in bridging the gap between fundamental climate research and the development of novel real-time climate services. Participation of dozens of institutes through subprojects in this program, which is governed by the Met Office Hadley Centre, the China Meteorological Administration, and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, is creating an important legacy for future collaboration in climate science and services.

Full access
Gabriele C. Hegerl, Emily Black, Richard P. Allan, William J. Ingram, Debbie Polson, Kevin E. Trenberth, Robin S. Chadwick, Phillip A. Arkin, Beena Balan Sarojini, Andreas Becker, Aiguo Dai, Paul J. Durack, David Easterling, Hayley J. Fowler, Elizabeth J. Kendon, George J. Huffman, Chunlei Liu, Robert Marsh, Mark New, Timothy J. Osborn, Nikolaos Skliris, Peter A. Stott, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Susan E. Wijffels, Laura J. Wilcox, Kate M. Willett, and Xuebin Zhang


Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time series over land, but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols and because of the large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes.

Full access