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- Author or Editor: Qiang Wang x
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Abstract
The author has attempted to detect the presence of low-dimensional deterministic chaos in temperature data by estimating the correlation dimension with the Hill estimate that has been recently developed by Mikosch and Wang. There is no convincing evidence of low dimensionality with either global dataset (Southern Hemisphere monthly average temperatures from 1858 to 1984) or local temperature dataset (daily minimums at Auckland, New Zealand). Any apparent reduction in the dimension estimates appears to be due large1y, if not entirely, to effects of statistical bias, but neither is it a purely random stochastic process. The dimension of the climatic attractor may be significantly larger than 10.
Abstract
The author has attempted to detect the presence of low-dimensional deterministic chaos in temperature data by estimating the correlation dimension with the Hill estimate that has been recently developed by Mikosch and Wang. There is no convincing evidence of low dimensionality with either global dataset (Southern Hemisphere monthly average temperatures from 1858 to 1984) or local temperature dataset (daily minimums at Auckland, New Zealand). Any apparent reduction in the dimension estimates appears to be due large1y, if not entirely, to effects of statistical bias, but neither is it a purely random stochastic process. The dimension of the climatic attractor may be significantly larger than 10.
Abstract
The eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region may be affected by two factors: EKE in the Kuroshio large meander (KLM) region and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). Previous studies reported that the Kuroshio path variations south of Japan may affect the low-frequency variability of the KE jet and related EKE, but the linear correlation between these phenomena derived from long time series is low and not significant, implying that the linkage between EKE in the KLM and KE regions is still unclear. Besides, whether NPGO has a causal effect on the KE EKE remains under debate. In this study, we investigate the causal forcing of the KLM EKE and NPGO on the KE EKE using the convergent cross mapping (CCM) approach based on satellite sea surface height observations. The analysis shows that the KLM EKE affects the EKE only in the KE upstream area (west of 146°E), with no significant causal effect on the EKE in the downstream area; the NPGO plays, instead, a remarkable role on the EKE in both areas. The effect of the KLM EKE on the KE EKE is found to depend on the Kuroshio latitudinal position over the Izu Ridge. Changes in the KLM EKE affect the downstream advection of eddies and induce changes in the Kuroshio position over the ridge, which cause different EKE levels in the KE upstream region. The NPGO affects the KE EKE through the westward propagation of sea surface height anomalies remotely forced by wind stress anomalies associated with the North Pacific Oscillation.
Abstract
The eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region may be affected by two factors: EKE in the Kuroshio large meander (KLM) region and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). Previous studies reported that the Kuroshio path variations south of Japan may affect the low-frequency variability of the KE jet and related EKE, but the linear correlation between these phenomena derived from long time series is low and not significant, implying that the linkage between EKE in the KLM and KE regions is still unclear. Besides, whether NPGO has a causal effect on the KE EKE remains under debate. In this study, we investigate the causal forcing of the KLM EKE and NPGO on the KE EKE using the convergent cross mapping (CCM) approach based on satellite sea surface height observations. The analysis shows that the KLM EKE affects the EKE only in the KE upstream area (west of 146°E), with no significant causal effect on the EKE in the downstream area; the NPGO plays, instead, a remarkable role on the EKE in both areas. The effect of the KLM EKE on the KE EKE is found to depend on the Kuroshio latitudinal position over the Izu Ridge. Changes in the KLM EKE affect the downstream advection of eddies and induce changes in the Kuroshio position over the ridge, which cause different EKE levels in the KE upstream region. The NPGO affects the KE EKE through the westward propagation of sea surface height anomalies remotely forced by wind stress anomalies associated with the North Pacific Oscillation.
Abstract
Based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method, we explore the nonlinear optimal triggering perturbation of the Kuroshio large meander (LM) and its evolution, and reveal the role of nonlinear physical processes in the formation of the LM path. The results show that the large amplitudes of the perturbations are mainly located in the upper 2000 m in the southeastern area of Kyushu (29°–32°N, 131°–134°E), where the eastward propagation of the cold anomaly is vital to the formation of the LM path. By analyzing the depth-integrated vorticity equation of the perturbation, we find that linear advection, namely, the interaction between the perturbation and the reference field, tends to move the cyclonic eddy induced by the optimal triggering perturbation eastward, while the nonlinear advection associated with the interaction of perturbations tends to move the cyclonic eddy westward. The opposing effects of the nonlinear advection and the linear advection slow the eastward movement of the cyclonic eddy so that the eddy has a chance to effectively develop, eventually leading to the formation of the Kuroshio LM path.
Abstract
Based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method, we explore the nonlinear optimal triggering perturbation of the Kuroshio large meander (LM) and its evolution, and reveal the role of nonlinear physical processes in the formation of the LM path. The results show that the large amplitudes of the perturbations are mainly located in the upper 2000 m in the southeastern area of Kyushu (29°–32°N, 131°–134°E), where the eastward propagation of the cold anomaly is vital to the formation of the LM path. By analyzing the depth-integrated vorticity equation of the perturbation, we find that linear advection, namely, the interaction between the perturbation and the reference field, tends to move the cyclonic eddy induced by the optimal triggering perturbation eastward, while the nonlinear advection associated with the interaction of perturbations tends to move the cyclonic eddy westward. The opposing effects of the nonlinear advection and the linear advection slow the eastward movement of the cyclonic eddy so that the eddy has a chance to effectively develop, eventually leading to the formation of the Kuroshio LM path.
Abstract
A new optimization strategy is proposed to identify the sensitivities of simulations of atmospheric and oceanic models to uncertain parameters. The strategy is based on a nonlinear optimization method that is able to estimate the maximum values of specific parameter sensitivity measures; meanwhile, it takes into account interactions among uncertain parameters. It is tested using the Lorenz’63 model and an intermediate complexity 2.5-layer shallow-water model of the North Pacific Ocean. For the Lorenz’63 model, it is shown that the parameter sensitivities of the model results depend on the initial conditions. For the 2.5-layer shallow-water model used to simulate the Kuroshio large meander (KLM) south of Japan, the optimization strategy reveals that the prediction of the KLM path is insensitive to the uncertainties in the bottom friction coefficient, the interfacial friction coefficient, and the lateral friction coefficient. Rather, the KLM prediction is relatively sensitive to the uncertainties of the reduced gravity representing ocean stratification and the wind stress coefficient.
Abstract
A new optimization strategy is proposed to identify the sensitivities of simulations of atmospheric and oceanic models to uncertain parameters. The strategy is based on a nonlinear optimization method that is able to estimate the maximum values of specific parameter sensitivity measures; meanwhile, it takes into account interactions among uncertain parameters. It is tested using the Lorenz’63 model and an intermediate complexity 2.5-layer shallow-water model of the North Pacific Ocean. For the Lorenz’63 model, it is shown that the parameter sensitivities of the model results depend on the initial conditions. For the 2.5-layer shallow-water model used to simulate the Kuroshio large meander (KLM) south of Japan, the optimization strategy reveals that the prediction of the KLM path is insensitive to the uncertainties in the bottom friction coefficient, the interfacial friction coefficient, and the lateral friction coefficient. Rather, the KLM prediction is relatively sensitive to the uncertainties of the reduced gravity representing ocean stratification and the wind stress coefficient.
Abstract
In most parts of the world, pan evaporation decreases with increased air temperature rather than increases, which is known as the “evaporation paradox.” The semiarid Loess Plateau, which is sensitive to global climate change and ecological variations, has a unique warming and drying climate. The authors of this study consider whether pan evaporation shows the same decreasing trend in this unique environment. Meteorological observations of the typical semiarid Dingxi in the Loess Plateau from 1960 to 2010 were used to analyze the variation in pan evaporation and its responses to climatic factors. It was found that the pan evaporation has increased considerably over the past 50 yr, which does not support the evaporation paradox proposed in previous studies. A multifactor model developed to simulate the independent impacts of climate factors on pan evaporation indicated that the temperature, humidity, wind speed, and low cloud cover variations contributed to pan evaporation by 46.18%, 25.90%, 2.48%, and 25.44%, respectively. The increased temperature, decreased relative humidity, and decreased low cloud cover all caused an increase in pan evaporation, unlike many parts of the world where increased low cloud cover offsets the effects of increased temperature and decreased relative humidity on pan evaporation. This may explain why the evaporation paradox occurs. If all relevant factors affecting pan evaporation are considered, it is possible the paradox will not occur. Thus in warm and drying regions, the increased pan evaporation will lead to increasingly arid conditions, which may exacerbate drought and flood disaster occurrences worldwide.
Abstract
In most parts of the world, pan evaporation decreases with increased air temperature rather than increases, which is known as the “evaporation paradox.” The semiarid Loess Plateau, which is sensitive to global climate change and ecological variations, has a unique warming and drying climate. The authors of this study consider whether pan evaporation shows the same decreasing trend in this unique environment. Meteorological observations of the typical semiarid Dingxi in the Loess Plateau from 1960 to 2010 were used to analyze the variation in pan evaporation and its responses to climatic factors. It was found that the pan evaporation has increased considerably over the past 50 yr, which does not support the evaporation paradox proposed in previous studies. A multifactor model developed to simulate the independent impacts of climate factors on pan evaporation indicated that the temperature, humidity, wind speed, and low cloud cover variations contributed to pan evaporation by 46.18%, 25.90%, 2.48%, and 25.44%, respectively. The increased temperature, decreased relative humidity, and decreased low cloud cover all caused an increase in pan evaporation, unlike many parts of the world where increased low cloud cover offsets the effects of increased temperature and decreased relative humidity on pan evaporation. This may explain why the evaporation paradox occurs. If all relevant factors affecting pan evaporation are considered, it is possible the paradox will not occur. Thus in warm and drying regions, the increased pan evaporation will lead to increasingly arid conditions, which may exacerbate drought and flood disaster occurrences worldwide.
Abstract
The thermal state of the South China Sea (SCS) modulates the regional climate variability over Southeast Asia. Currents in the SCS are an important factor impacting the thermal state of the SCS, but their relationship is not clearly understood. There is an asymmetry in the thermal effect of weak and strong SCS winter currents. Weak SCS winter currents favor stable warm advection of mean temperature by the anomalous horizontal velocity (i.e., Advha), which drives the SCS into a warm phase. However, the cooling effect of strong SCS winter currents on the SCS is weak, due to small and variable negative Advha. The basin-integrated Advha is primarily set by meridional heat flux in the southern SCS, which is mainly determined by the western boundary current (WBC) anomaly. The eastern boundary current (EBC) anomaly with opposite direction of WBC anomaly acts to weaken the Advha. In weak (strong) SCS winter current years, the wind stress anomaly over the southern SCS is localized around the western (eastern) boundary, which induces a weak (strong) EBC anomaly. Therefore, warm Advha in weak SCS winter current years is large enough to drive the SCS into a warm phase. However, the negative Advha in strong SCS winter current years is variable, which can be occasionally offset by positive advection of anomalous temperature by the mean horizontal velocity and then the SCS presents a warm phase, as in 1998. Thus, the strong SCS winter current exerts a weak cooling effect on the SCS.
Abstract
The thermal state of the South China Sea (SCS) modulates the regional climate variability over Southeast Asia. Currents in the SCS are an important factor impacting the thermal state of the SCS, but their relationship is not clearly understood. There is an asymmetry in the thermal effect of weak and strong SCS winter currents. Weak SCS winter currents favor stable warm advection of mean temperature by the anomalous horizontal velocity (i.e., Advha), which drives the SCS into a warm phase. However, the cooling effect of strong SCS winter currents on the SCS is weak, due to small and variable negative Advha. The basin-integrated Advha is primarily set by meridional heat flux in the southern SCS, which is mainly determined by the western boundary current (WBC) anomaly. The eastern boundary current (EBC) anomaly with opposite direction of WBC anomaly acts to weaken the Advha. In weak (strong) SCS winter current years, the wind stress anomaly over the southern SCS is localized around the western (eastern) boundary, which induces a weak (strong) EBC anomaly. Therefore, warm Advha in weak SCS winter current years is large enough to drive the SCS into a warm phase. However, the negative Advha in strong SCS winter current years is variable, which can be occasionally offset by positive advection of anomalous temperature by the mean horizontal velocity and then the SCS presents a warm phase, as in 1998. Thus, the strong SCS winter current exerts a weak cooling effect on the SCS.
Abstract
It is argued that the occurrence of cold events decreases under the background of global warming. However, from the mid-1990s to the early 2010s, northern China experienced a period of increasing occurrence of low temperature extremes (LTE). Factors responsible for this increase of LTE are investigated in this analysis. The results show that the interdecadal variation of the winter mean temperature over mid- and high-latitude Eurasia acts as an important thermal background. It is characterized by two dominant modes, the “consistent cooling” pattern and the “warm high-latitude Eurasia and cold midlatitude Eurasia” pattern, from the mid-1990s to the early 2010s. The two patterns jointly provide a cooling background for the increase of LTE in northern China. Meanwhile, though the interdecadal variation of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), Ural blocking (UB), and Siberian high (SH) are all highly correlated with the occurrence of LTE in northern China, the AO is found to play a dominant role. On one hand, the AO directly affects the occurrence of LTE because of its dynamic structure; on the other hand, it takes an indirect effect by affecting the intensity of UB and SH. Further analyses show that the winter temperature in mid- and high-latitude Eurasia and the AO are independent factors that influence the increase of LTE in northern China from the mid-1990s to the early 2010s.
Abstract
It is argued that the occurrence of cold events decreases under the background of global warming. However, from the mid-1990s to the early 2010s, northern China experienced a period of increasing occurrence of low temperature extremes (LTE). Factors responsible for this increase of LTE are investigated in this analysis. The results show that the interdecadal variation of the winter mean temperature over mid- and high-latitude Eurasia acts as an important thermal background. It is characterized by two dominant modes, the “consistent cooling” pattern and the “warm high-latitude Eurasia and cold midlatitude Eurasia” pattern, from the mid-1990s to the early 2010s. The two patterns jointly provide a cooling background for the increase of LTE in northern China. Meanwhile, though the interdecadal variation of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), Ural blocking (UB), and Siberian high (SH) are all highly correlated with the occurrence of LTE in northern China, the AO is found to play a dominant role. On one hand, the AO directly affects the occurrence of LTE because of its dynamic structure; on the other hand, it takes an indirect effect by affecting the intensity of UB and SH. Further analyses show that the winter temperature in mid- and high-latitude Eurasia and the AO are independent factors that influence the increase of LTE in northern China from the mid-1990s to the early 2010s.
Abstract
Based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), a significant increase after the mid-1990s is detected in the annual number of days with drought in the zonal belt from southern Xinjiang to southern Northeast China and North China. This change features the predominant mode of the annual number of days with drought in China. Meanwhile, two significant breakpoints in 1981 and 2001 indicate a continuous increase of days with drought in the meridional belt from eastern Northwest China to eastern Southwest China. The increase in days with drought is closely related to the significant warming in the zonal belt but is attributed to both the increase of temperature and the decrease of precipitation in the meridional belt. The typical circulation patterns responsible for the increase of days with drought comprise a wave train stretching from North Atlantic to East Asia, the generally anomalous high pressure over China, the northerly anomalies prevailing over northern and central China, and the suppressed convection in most of the zonal and meridional belt. Both the AMO and the PDO after the 1980s have a close relationship with the interdecadal variation of the number of days with drought. On one hand, either a positive AMO phase or negative PDO phase motivates the typical circulation patterns favorable for the occurrence of drought. On the other hand, both the AMO and PDO affect the warming in the zonal and meridional belt, and the PDO is also closely connected with the precipitation in the meridional belt.
Abstract
Based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), a significant increase after the mid-1990s is detected in the annual number of days with drought in the zonal belt from southern Xinjiang to southern Northeast China and North China. This change features the predominant mode of the annual number of days with drought in China. Meanwhile, two significant breakpoints in 1981 and 2001 indicate a continuous increase of days with drought in the meridional belt from eastern Northwest China to eastern Southwest China. The increase in days with drought is closely related to the significant warming in the zonal belt but is attributed to both the increase of temperature and the decrease of precipitation in the meridional belt. The typical circulation patterns responsible for the increase of days with drought comprise a wave train stretching from North Atlantic to East Asia, the generally anomalous high pressure over China, the northerly anomalies prevailing over northern and central China, and the suppressed convection in most of the zonal and meridional belt. Both the AMO and the PDO after the 1980s have a close relationship with the interdecadal variation of the number of days with drought. On one hand, either a positive AMO phase or negative PDO phase motivates the typical circulation patterns favorable for the occurrence of drought. On the other hand, both the AMO and PDO affect the warming in the zonal and meridional belt, and the PDO is also closely connected with the precipitation in the meridional belt.
Abstract
The deep channel north of New Guinea (NG) is the choke site for the upper deep branches of the Pacific meridional overturning circulation (U-PMOC). The U-PMOC is a crucial element of the ocean’s climate and biogeochemical systems. It carries the mixed water of the Upper Circumpolar Water and North Pacific Deep Water with a potential temperature over 1.2°–2.2°C. The pathway and volume transport of U-PMOC through the deep channel north of NG are revealed by mooring measurements from 2014 to 2019. Mean U-PMOC is located at ∼2000–3500 m with a velocity core at 2550 m and is directed eastward. The U-PMOC shows a strong seasonal variability with a direction reversal from June to September. The oceanic reanalysis product GLORYS12V1 well reproduces the observed U-PMOC and is thus used to estimate the mean and standard deviation of U-PMOC’s volume transport as 2.19 ± 11.4 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) and to explore the underlying dynamics of the U-PMOC. The seasonality of U-PMOC is induced by the vertical propagation of the Rossby energy through the upper ocean in the eastern Pacific to the deep ocean in the western Pacific. The mean eastward U-PMOC transport is forced by the zonal deep pressure gradient, which is mainly determined by the local upper-ocean processes above 500 m.
Abstract
The deep channel north of New Guinea (NG) is the choke site for the upper deep branches of the Pacific meridional overturning circulation (U-PMOC). The U-PMOC is a crucial element of the ocean’s climate and biogeochemical systems. It carries the mixed water of the Upper Circumpolar Water and North Pacific Deep Water with a potential temperature over 1.2°–2.2°C. The pathway and volume transport of U-PMOC through the deep channel north of NG are revealed by mooring measurements from 2014 to 2019. Mean U-PMOC is located at ∼2000–3500 m with a velocity core at 2550 m and is directed eastward. The U-PMOC shows a strong seasonal variability with a direction reversal from June to September. The oceanic reanalysis product GLORYS12V1 well reproduces the observed U-PMOC and is thus used to estimate the mean and standard deviation of U-PMOC’s volume transport as 2.19 ± 11.4 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) and to explore the underlying dynamics of the U-PMOC. The seasonality of U-PMOC is induced by the vertical propagation of the Rossby energy through the upper ocean in the eastern Pacific to the deep ocean in the western Pacific. The mean eastward U-PMOC transport is forced by the zonal deep pressure gradient, which is mainly determined by the local upper-ocean processes above 500 m.
Abstract
Strong subinertial variability near a seamount at the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea was revealed by mooring observations from January 2017 to January 2018. The intraseasonal deep flows presented two significant frequency bands, with periods of 9–20 and 30–120 days, corresponding to topographic Rossby waves (TRWs) and deep eddies, respectively. The TRW and deep eddy signals explained approximately 60% of the kinetic energy of the deep subinertial currents. The TRWs at the Ma, Mb, and Mc moorings had 297, 262, and 274 m vertical trapping lengths, and ∼43, 38, and 55 km wavelengths, respectively. Deep eddies were independent from the upper layer, with the largest temperature anomaly being >0.4°C. The generation of the TRWs was induced by mesoscale perturbations in the upper layer. The interaction between the cyclonic–anticyclonic eddy pair and the seamount topography contributed to the generation of deep eddies. Owing to the potential vorticity conservation, the westward-propagating tilted interface across the eddy pair squeezed the deep-water column, thereby giving rise to negative vorticity west of the seamount. The strong front between the eddy pair induced a northward deep flow, thereby generating a strong horizontal velocity shear because of lateral friction and enhanced negative vorticity. Approximately 4 years of observations further confirmed the high occurrence of TRWs and deep eddies. TRWs and deep eddies might be crucial for deep mixing near rough topographies by transferring mesoscale energy to small scales.
Abstract
Strong subinertial variability near a seamount at the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea was revealed by mooring observations from January 2017 to January 2018. The intraseasonal deep flows presented two significant frequency bands, with periods of 9–20 and 30–120 days, corresponding to topographic Rossby waves (TRWs) and deep eddies, respectively. The TRW and deep eddy signals explained approximately 60% of the kinetic energy of the deep subinertial currents. The TRWs at the Ma, Mb, and Mc moorings had 297, 262, and 274 m vertical trapping lengths, and ∼43, 38, and 55 km wavelengths, respectively. Deep eddies were independent from the upper layer, with the largest temperature anomaly being >0.4°C. The generation of the TRWs was induced by mesoscale perturbations in the upper layer. The interaction between the cyclonic–anticyclonic eddy pair and the seamount topography contributed to the generation of deep eddies. Owing to the potential vorticity conservation, the westward-propagating tilted interface across the eddy pair squeezed the deep-water column, thereby giving rise to negative vorticity west of the seamount. The strong front between the eddy pair induced a northward deep flow, thereby generating a strong horizontal velocity shear because of lateral friction and enhanced negative vorticity. Approximately 4 years of observations further confirmed the high occurrence of TRWs and deep eddies. TRWs and deep eddies might be crucial for deep mixing near rough topographies by transferring mesoscale energy to small scales.
