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P. H. Stone and R. K. Hadlock

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R. K. Hadlock, J. Y. Na, and P. H. Stone

Abstract

Direct temperature measurements are reported for two rotating annulus experiments. One shows the flow pattern interpreted by Stone et al. as a manifestation of symmetric baroclinic (inertial) instability, and the other shows the flow pattern typical of baroclinic waves. The mean value of the Richardson number in the former experiment is found to he 0.62. This value agrees with theoretical expectations for a symmetric haroclinic instability regime and thus verifies the original interpretation of the flow pattern. The mean value of the Richardson number in the baroclinic wave experiment is 83. In the symmetric instability experiment the thermal fields and Richardson number are not steady, but show a cyclic variation.

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J. A. Warburton, L. G. Young, and R. H. Stone

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Trace chemical analysis techniques have been used in a series of cloud-seeding experiments in the central Sierra Nevada with the ultimate purpose of distinguishing whether the submicron-sized aerosol particles used for seeding are removed by nucleation or by scavenging in snowfall. The research programs used submicron-sized seeding aerosols with different nucleating characteristics. When winter storms were seeded with silver iodide in the Lake Tahoe and Lake Almanor watersheds, positive correlations were observed between silver concentrations and precipitation amounts in both catchment areas.This is considered to be evidence that the AgI aerosols are not being removed in the snowfall entirely by scavenging processes. When two separate aerosols of silver iodide and indium sesquioxide were released simultaneously from the same ground locations during winter snowstorms in the Lake Almanor watershed, it was found that considerably more of the ice-nucleating aerosol particles (AgI) were removed by the snowfall than the non-ice-nucleating ones (In203). Under the experimental conditions employed, scavenging alone of the two aerosols would lead to a chemical ratio of Ag:In in the snowfall of 0.83:l. Ratios as high as 17.2:l were observed, the mean ratio being 4: I. These results are considered to be evidence of the removal of substantial numbers of the AgI aerosol particles through direct nucleation of ice crystals.

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P. H. Stone, W. J. Quirk, and R. C. J. Somerville

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Several experiments are described in which the sub-grid-scale vertical eddy viscosity in the GISS global general circulation model was varied. The results show that large viscosities suppress large-scale eddies in middle and high latitudes, but enhance the circulation in the tropical Hadley cell and increase the extent of the tropical easterlies. Comparison with observations shows that the GISS model requires eddy viscosities ∼1 m2/s or less to give realistic results for middle and high latitudes, and eddy viscosities ∼100 m2/s to give realistic results for low latitudes. A plausible mechanism for the implied increase in small-scale mixing in low latitudes is cumulus convection.

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P. H. Stone, S. Hess, R. Hadlock, and P. Ray

Abstract

An experiment has been designed to test the predictions of nongeostrophic baroclinic stability theory. The apparatus is similar to the conventional rotating annulus experiments, except that the vertical temperature difference can be controlled as well as the horizontal temperature difference. Therefore, the Richardson number can be decreased by heating the bottom of the annulus relative to the top. The first qualitative observations derived from the experiment are described and are found to agree well with the theory. With no vertical temperature difference applied, the motion consists of a conventional baroclinic instability superimposed on the basic thermal wind. As the fluid is destabilized symmetric instabilities first appear superimposed on the baroclinic instability. As further destabilization occurs the symmetric instabilities completely replace the baroclinic instability, and are themselves subsequently replaced by small-scale, nonsymmetric instabilities.

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Jeffery R. Scott, Jochem Marotzke, and Peter H. Stone

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The interhemispheric thermohaline circulation is examined using Rooth’s three-box ocean model, whereby overturning strength is parameterized from density differences between high-latitude boxes. Recent results with general circulation models indicate that this is a better analog of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation than a single-hemisphere box model. The results are compared with those of hemispheric box model studies, where possible, and the role of asymmetrical freshwater forcing is explored.

Using both analytical and numerical methods, the linear and nonlinear stability of the model is examined. Although freshwater forcing in the Southern Hemisphere alone governs overturning strength, increasing freshwater forcing in the Northern Hemisphere leads to a heretofore unrecognized instability in the northern sinking branch due to an increasingly positive ocean salinity feedback. If the northern forcing is instead made weaker than the southern forcing, this feedback becomes negative. In contrast, the ocean salinity feedback is always positive in single-hemisphere models. Nonlinear stability, as measured by the size of the perturbation necessary to induce a permanent transition to the southern sinking equilibrium, is also observed to depend similarly on the north–south forcing ratio.

The model is augmented with explicit atmospheric eddy transport parameterizations, allowing examination of the eddy moisture transport (EMT) and eddy heat transport (EHT) feedbacks. As in the hemispheric model, the EMT feedback is always destabilizing, whereas the EHT may stabilize or destabilize. However, in this model whether the EHT stabilizes or destabilizes depends largely on the sign of the ocean salinity feedback and the size of the perturbation. Since oceanic heat transport in the Southern Hemisphere is weak, the Northern Hemisphere EMT and EHT feedbacks dominate.

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Fabio Dalan, Peter H. Stone, Igor V. Kamenkovich, and Jeffery R. Scott

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The diapycnal diffusivity in the ocean is one of the least known parameters in current climate models. Measurements of this diffusivity are sparse and insufficient for compiling a global map. Inferences from inverse methods and energy budget calculations suggest as much as a factor of 5 difference in the global mean value of the diapycnal diffusivity. Yet, the climate is extremely sensitive to the diapycnal diffusivity. In this paper the sensitivity of the current climate to the diapycnal diffusivity is studied, focusing on the changes occurring in the ocean circulation. To this end, a coupled model with a three-dimensional ocean with idealized geometry is used.

The results show that, at equilibrium, the strength of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic scales with the 0.44 power of the diapycnal diffusivity, in contrast to the theoretical value based on scaling arguments for uncoupled models of 2/3. On the other hand, the strength of the circulation in the South Pacific scales with the 0.63 power of the diapycnal diffusivity in closer accordance with the theoretical value.

The vertical heat balance in the global ocean is controlled by, in the downward direction, (i) advection and (ii) diapycnal diffusion; in the upward direction, (iii) isopycnal diffusion and (iv) parameterized mesoscale eddy [Gent–McWilliams (GM)] advection. The size of the latter three fluxes increases with diapycnal diffusivity, because the thickness of the thermocline also increases with diapycnal diffusivity leading to greater isopycnal slopes at high latitudes, and hence, enhanced isopycnal diffusion and GM advection. Thus larger diapycnal diffusion is compensated for by changes in isopycnal diffusion and GM advection. Little change is found for the advective flux because of compensation between downward and upward advection.

Sensitivity results are presented for the hysteresis curve of the thermohaline circulation. The stability of the climate system to slow freshwater perturbations is reduced as a consequence of a smaller diapycnal diffusivity. This result is consistent with the findings of two-dimensional climate models. However, contrary to the results of these studies, a common threshold for the shutdown of the thermohaline circulation is not found in this model.

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V. E. Derr, R. S. Stone, H. P. Hanson, and L. S. Fedor

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Surface measurements of solar flux and total integrated liquid-water content, radiosonde data, and infrared satellite images are analyzed in conjunction with radiative transfer calculations to derive an empirical parameterization for the shortwave transmissivity of continental stratiform water clouds. The data were collected near Denver, Colorado, over a period of six years. Seventeen days on which uniform stratiform clouds persisted over the observing site were selected for detailed analysis, and form the basis for deriving the parameterization. A mulitiple reflection radiative transfer model is employed to estimate stratus cloud transmissivity in terms of the measurable liquid-water path (LWP). A nonlinear fit of estimated transmissivities to the corresponding observations of LWP yields close agreement with a previous, more complicated parameterization. The derived expression for cloud transmissivity is used to predict mean daily surface fluxes for 61 days during which periods of stratiform clouds were observed over the Denver area. A comparison between predicted and measured fluxes shows agreement to within ±4%, with best agreement for clouds of moderate optical thickness. Potential sources of error are identified with sensitivity studies.

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A. B. Potgieter, G. L. Hammer, H. Meinke, R. C. Stone, and L. Goddard

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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon significantly impacts rainfall and ensuing crop yields in many parts of the world. In Australia, El Niño events are often associated with severe drought conditions. However, El Niño events differ spatially and temporally in their manifestations and impacts, reducing the relevance of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. In this analysis, three putative types of El Niño are identified among the 24 occurrences since the beginning of the twentieth century. The three types are based on coherent spatial patterns (“footprints”) found in the El Niño impact on Australian wheat yield. This bioindicator reveals aligned spatial patterns in rainfall anomalies, indicating linkage to atmospheric drivers. Analysis of the associated ocean–atmosphere dynamics identifies three types of El Niño differing in the timing of onset and location of major ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies. Potential causal mechanisms associated with these differences in anomaly patterns need to be investigated further using the increasing capabilities of general circulation models. Any improved predictability would be extremely valuable in forecasting effects of individual El Niño events on agricultural systems.

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Dieter Kley, E.J. Stone, W.R. Henderson, J.W. Drummond, W.J. Harrop, A.L. Schmeltekopf, T.L. Thompson, and R.H. Winkler

Abstract

The results of four balloon flights of the NOAA ultraviolet fluorescence stratospheric water vapor instrument are presented. A series of improvements in the instrument has brought results which are credibly free from contamination by outgassing. The results are in essential agreement with the extensive soundings by H.J. Mastenbrook. The minimum water vapor mixing ratio occurs 2–3 km above the tropopause in both tropical and temperature latitudes. Our measured minimum values were 2.6 ppmv over Brazil (5°S) and 3.6 ppmv over Wyoming (41°N), with an estimated total error of 20%. This degree of dryness permits the conclusion that the global circulation originally proposed by Brewer is correct; i.e., that air enters the stratosphere from the troposphere in substantial quantities only through the tropical tropopause. This general circulation must apply to all other trace gases of tropospheric origin as well. The carbon monoxide measurements of Seiler support the conclusion.

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