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C. Hogrefe, W. Hao, K. Civerolo, J.-Y. Ku, G. Sistla, R. S. Gaza, L. Sedefian, K. Schere, A. Gilliland, and R. Mathur

Abstract

This study investigates the potential utility of the application of a photochemical modeling system in providing simultaneous forecasts of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over New York State. To this end, daily simulations from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for three extended time periods during 2004 and 2005 have been performed, and predictions were compared with observations of ozone and total and speciated PM2.5. Model performance for 8-h daily maximum O3 was found to be similar to other forecasting systems and to be better than that for the 24-h-averaged total PM2.5. Both pollutants exhibited no seasonal differences in model performance. CMAQ simulations successfully captured the urban–rural and seasonal differences evident in observed total and speciated PM2.5 concentrations. However, total PM2.5 mass was strongly overestimated in the New York City metropolitan area, and further analysis of speciated observations and model predictions showed that most of this overprediction stems from organic aerosols and crustal material. An analysis of hourly speciated data measured in Bronx County, New York, suggests that a combination of uncertainties in vertical mixing, magnitude, and temporal allocation of emissions and deposition processes are all possible contributors to this overprediction in the complex urban area. Categorical evaluation of CMAQ simulations in terms of exceeding two different threshold levels of the air quality index (AQI) again indicates better performance for ozone than PM2.5 and better performance for lower exceedance thresholds. In most regions of New York State, the routine air quality forecasts based on observed concentrations and expert judgment show slightly better agreement with the observed distributions of AQI categories than do CMAQ simulations. However, CMAQ shows skill similar to these routine forecasts in terms of capturing the AQI tendency, that is, in predicting changes in air quality conditions. Overall, the results presented in this study reveal that additional research and development is needed to improve CMAQ simulations of PM2.5 concentrations over New York State, especially for the New York City metropolitan area. On the other hand, because CMAQ simulations capture urban–rural concentration gradients and day-to-day fluctuations in observed air quality despite systematic overpredictions in some areas, it would be useful to develop tools that combine CMAQ’s predictive capability in terms of spatial concentration gradients and AQI tendencies with real-time observations of ambient pollutant levels to generate forecasts with higher temporal and spatial resolutions (e.g., county level) than those of techniques based exclusively on monitoring data.

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Emily Shroyer, Amit Tandon, Debasis Sengupta, Harindra J. S. Fernando, Andrew J. Lucas, J. Thomas Farrar, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Simon de Szoeke, Maria Flatau, Adam Rydbeck, Hemantha Wijesekera, Michael McPhaden, Hyodae Seo, Aneesh Subramanian, R Venkatesan, Jossia Joseph, S. Ramsundaram, Arnold L. Gordon, Shannon M. Bohman, Jaynise Pérez, Iury T. Simoes-Sousa, Steven R. Jayne, Robert E. Todd, G. S. Bhat, Matthias Lankhorst, Tamara Schlosser, Katherine Adams, S. U. P Jinadasa, Manikandan Mathur, M. Mohapatra, E. Pattabhi Rama Rao, A. K. Sahai, Rashmi Sharma, Craig Lee, Luc Rainville, Deepak Cherian, Kerstin Cullen, Luca R. Centurioni, Verena Hormann, Jennifer MacKinnon, Uwe Send, Arachaporn Anutaliya, Amy Waterhouse, Garrett S. Black, Jeremy A. Dehart, Kaitlyn M. Woods, Edward Creegan, Gad Levy, Lakshmi H. Kantha, and Bulusu Subrahmanyam

Abstract

In the Bay of Bengal, the warm, dry boreal spring concludes with the onset of the summer monsoon and accompanying southwesterly winds, heavy rains, and variable air–sea fluxes. Here, we summarize the 2018 monsoon onset using observations collected through the multinational Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Bay of Bengal (MISO-BoB) program between the United States, India, and Sri Lanka. MISO-BoB aims to improve understanding of monsoon intraseasonal variability, and the 2018 field effort captured the coupled air–sea response during a transition from active-to-break conditions in the central BoB. The active phase of the ∼20-day research cruise was characterized by warm sea surface temperature (SST > 30°C), cold atmospheric outflows with intermittent heavy rainfall, and increasing winds (from 2 to 15 m s−1). Accumulated rainfall exceeded 200 mm with 90% of precipitation occurring during the first week. The following break period was both dry and clear, with persistent 10–12 m s−1 wind and evaporation of 0.2 mm h−1. The evolving environmental state included a deepening ocean mixed layer (from ∼20 to 50 m), cooling SST (by ∼1°C), and warming/drying of the lower to midtroposphere. Local atmospheric development was consistent with phasing of the large-scale intraseasonal oscillation. The upper ocean stores significant heat in the BoB, enough to maintain SST above 29°C despite cooling by surface fluxes and ocean mixing. Comparison with reanalysis indicates biases in air–sea fluxes, which may be related to overly cool prescribed SST. Resolution of such biases offers a path toward improved forecasting of transition periods in the monsoon.

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Emily Shroyer, Amit Tandon, Debasis Sengupta, Harindra J.S. Fernando, Andrew J. Lucas, J. Thomas Farrar, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Simon de Szoeke, Maria Flatau, Adam Rydbeck, Hemantha Wijesekera, Michael McPhaden, Hyodae Seo, Aneesh Subramanian, R Venkatesan, Jossia Joseph, S. Ramsundaram, Arnold L. Gordon, Shannon M. Bohman, Jaynise Pérez, Iury T. Simoes-Sousa, Steven R. Jayne, Robert E. Todd, G.S. Bhat, Matthias Lankhorst, Tamara Schlosser, Katherine Adams, S.U.P Jinadasa, Manikandan Mathur, M. Mohapatra, E. Pattabhi Rama Rao, A. K. Sahai, Rashmi Sharma, Craig Lee, Luc Rainville, Deepak Cherian, Kerstin Cullen, Luca R. Centurioni, Verena Hormann, Jennifer MacKinnon, Uwe Send, Arachaporn Anutaliya, Amy Waterhouse, Garrett S. Black, Jeremy A. Dehart, Kaitlyn M. Woods, Edward Creegan, Gad Levy, Lakshmi H Kantha, and Bulusu Subrahmanyam

Abstract

In the Bay of Bengal, the warm, dry boreal spring concludes with the onset of the summer monsoon and accompanying southwesterly winds, heavy rains, and variable air-sea fluxes. Here, we summarize the 2018 monsoon onset using observations collected through the multinational Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Bay of Bengal (MISO-BoB) program between the US, India, and Sri Lanka. MISO-BoB aims to improve understanding of monsoon intraseasonal variability, and the 2018 field effort captured the coupled air-sea response during a transition from active-to-break conditions in the central BoB. The active phase of the ~20-day research cruise was characterized by warm sea surface temperature (SST > 30°C), cold atmospheric outflows with intermittent heavy rainfall, and increasing winds (from 2 to 15 m s−1). Accumulated rainfall exceeded 200 mm with 90% of precipitation occurring during the first week. The following break period was both dry and clear, with persistent 10−12 m s−1 wind and evaporation of 0.2 mm h−1. The evolving environmental state included a deepening ocean mixed layer (from ~20 to 50 m), cooling SST (by ~ 1°C), and warming/drying of the lower to mid-troposphere. Local atmospheric development was consistent with phasing of the large-scale intraseasonal oscillation. The upper ocean stores significant heat in the BoB, enough to maintain SST above 29°C despite cooling by surface fluxes and ocean mixing. Comparison with reanalysis indicates biases in air-sea fluxes, which may be related to overly cool prescribed SST. Resolution of such biases offers a path toward improved forecasting of transition periods in the monsoon.

Full access