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R. S. Hawkins

Abstract

Infrared radiation data obtained by the TIROS II meteorological satellite are discussed in relation to a frontal system over North America. It appears from this study that the radiation data may be useful not only for determining the location, motion and development of frontal systems but also for obtaining information on the structure of frontal zones. A detailed analysis is made of data for a cloudy cold front in regard to cloud and moisture distributions. The infrared data define the regions of convective activity quite accurately. For the case studied, the data suggest a relatively dry region in the upper troposphere above the surface front. Potentialities of the data are discussed. Possible explanations for reported discrepancies between the satellite data and conventional data are presented.

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T. N. Krishnamurti and R. S. Hawkins

Abstract

Mid-tropospheric cyclones are an important part of the tropical general circulation of the summer season. These are synoptic-scale disturbances which appear in the daily and monthly mean circulation maps with greatest intensity at levels near 500 mb. The structure and energetics of this type over southeast Asia are discussed in this paper. Interesting features include a warm anomaly above the cyclone and a cold anomaly below.

A five-level non-geostrophic balanced model is used in this study to obtain the distribution of vertical motion. The model includes a parameterization of cumulus-scale convection. In the middle levels, rising motions are found west of the cyclone and sinking motions to the east. This is primarily due to the thermal structure of the atmosphere and associated advection of colder air from the oceanic regions and warmer air from land areas. A marked diurnal change in the vertical velocity is noted in the computations; magnitudes are large at 0700 local time compared to 1900. This diurnal change is primarily due to changes in the wind direction and speed. The important result of this study is that both the cumulus- and synoptic-scale motions exhibit the following dual roles in the maintenance of this midlevel system:

1) Both scales contribute to a net warming of the air above the cyclone, diabatic warming by cumulus-scale motions and adiabatic warming by the descent of synoptic-scale motions.

2) The two scales oppose each other in the transformation eddy available potential energy into eddy kinetic energy. Cumulus-scale motions contribute to a net generation, while synoptic-scale motions transform kinetic energy into potential energy. This latter result is consistent with 1) because the areas of descent are somewhat closer to the warm temperature anomaly than are the areas of ascent.

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John Kaplan, Christopher M. Rozoff, Mark DeMaria, Charles R. Sampson, James P. Kossin, Christopher S. Velden, Joseph J. Cione, Jason P. Dunion, John A. Knaff, Jun A. Zhang, John F. Dostalek, Jeffrey D. Hawkins, Thomas F. Lee, and Jeremy E. Solbrig

Abstract

New multi-lead-time versions of three statistical probabilistic tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) prediction models are developed for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. These are the linear-discriminant analysis–based Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Rapid Intensification Index (SHIPS-RII), logistic regression, and Bayesian statistical RI models. Consensus RI models derived by averaging the three individual RI model probability forecasts are also generated. A verification of the cross-validated forecasts of the above RI models conducted for the 12-, 24-, 36-, and 48-h lead times indicates that these models generally exhibit skill relative to climatological forecasts, with the eastern Pacific models providing somewhat more skill than the Atlantic ones and the consensus versions providing more skill than the individual models. A verification of the deterministic RI model forecasts indicates that the operational intensity guidance exhibits some limited RI predictive skill, with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecasts possessing the most skill within the first 24 h and the numerical models providing somewhat more skill at longer lead times. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) generally provides the most skillful RI forecasts of any of the conventional intensity models while the new consensus RI model shows potential for providing increased skill over the existing operational intensity guidance. Finally, newly developed versions of the deterministic rapid intensification aid guidance that employ the new probabilistic consensus RI model forecasts along with the existing operational intensity model consensus produce lower mean errors and biases than the intensity consensus model alone.

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L. C. Slivinski, G. P. Compo, P. D. Sardeshmukh, J. S. Whitaker, C. McColl, R. J. Allan, P. Brohan, X. Yin, C. A. Smith, L. J. Spencer, R. S. Vose, M. Rohrer, R. P. Conroy, D. C. Schuster, J. J. Kennedy, L. Ashcroft, S. Brönnimann, M. Brunet, D. Camuffo, R. Cornes, T. A. Cram, F. Domínguez-Castro, J. E. Freeman, J. Gergis, E. Hawkins, P. D. Jones, H. Kubota, T. C. Lee, A. M. Lorrey, J. Luterbacher, C. J. Mock, R. K. Przybylak, C. Pudmenzky, V. C. Slonosky, B. Tinz, B. Trewin, X. L. Wang, C. Wilkinson, K. Wood, and P. Wyszyński

Abstract

The performance of a new historical reanalysis, the NOAA–CIRES–DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 3 (20CRv3), is evaluated via comparisons with other reanalyses and independent observations. This dataset provides global, 3-hourly estimates of the atmosphere from 1806 to 2015 by assimilating only surface pressure observations and prescribing sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, and radiative forcings. Comparisons with independent observations, other reanalyses, and satellite products suggest that 20CRv3 can reliably produce atmospheric estimates on scales ranging from weather events to long-term climatic trends. Not only does 20CRv3 recreate a “best estimate” of the weather, including extreme events, it also provides an estimate of its confidence through the use of an ensemble. Surface pressure statistics suggest that these confidence estimates are reliable. Comparisons with independent upper-air observations in the Northern Hemisphere demonstrate that 20CRv3 has skill throughout the twentieth century. Upper-air fields from 20CRv3 in the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century correlate well with full-input reanalyses, and the correlation is predicted by the confidence fields from 20CRv3. The skill of analyzed 500-hPa geopotential heights from 20CRv3 for 1979–2015 is comparable to that of modern operational 3–4-day forecasts. Finally, 20CRv3 performs well on climate time scales. Long time series and multidecadal averages of mass, circulation, and precipitation fields agree well with modern reanalyses and station- and satellite-based products. 20CRv3 is also able to capture trends in tropospheric-layer temperatures that correlate well with independent products in the twentieth century, placing recent trends in a longer historical context.

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