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B. K. Mukherjee
,
R. S. Reddy
, and
Bh V. Ramana Murty

Abstract

Temperature and wind data for the troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere obtained from rocket-sonde/radiosonde/rawin observations made at a tropical station (Thumba, 8°32′15″N, 76°51′48″E) during five summer monsoons (1971–73, 1975–76) with differential monsoon activity were examined.

There is agreement between the occurrence of high-level warmings and monsoon activity in four out of five monsoons studied. There were no warmings in the year with very weak monsoon activity. The temperatures of the stratopause and the tropopause were significantly warmer in 1972 when the monsoon was very weak than in other years when the monsoon was active or very active.

There is a high positive correlation between the monsoonal activity (precipitation departure from normal over Indian subcontinent) and the 25 km mean zonal wind, and a strong negative correlation with the winds near 16 and 50 km. The change in the sign of correlation coefficient was due to the observed phase change with altitude of the quasi-biennial oscillation.

The study indicated the possibility of a relationship between stratospheric quasi-biennial structure and the Indian monsoon rainfall.

Full access
R. S. Reddy
,
B. K. Mukherjee
,
K. Indira
, and
Bh V. Ramana Murty

Abstract

An investigation of the dates of occurrence of heaviest rainfall is very important for flood forecasting. We have considered this aspect in the present study by examining the daily rainfall data for four coastal stations Kakinada, Masulipatnam, Nellore and Visakhapatnam for the month of October for a 10-year period 1973–82. The data have been analyzed by considering the heaviest rainfalls for each station separately. We have defined the heaviest rainfall as that which exceeds two or more times the mean rainfall of the month. The study shows that heaviest rainfalls occur during the period 16–23 October. This feature is repeated year after year, constituting a rainfall singularity for the region.

Full access
B. K. Mukherjee
,
K. Indira
,
R. S. Reddy
, and
Bh V. Ramana Murty

Abstract

In an earlier study a relationship was pointed out between phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the lower stratospheric (30 mb) zonal wind and percentage departures of summer monsoon rainfall of India. That study was based on analysis of wind data for Thumba (8°32′N, 76°52′E) and the rainfall data for India for a short-period (1971–76). Wind data for Balboa (9°N, 80°W), which is also an equatorial station, and rainfall activity over India are now examined for a longer period (1951–82). About 15% of the variability in rainfall over India during the summer monsoon is associated with the pattern of the QBO.

Full access
T. S. Mohan
,
Marouane Temimi
,
R. S. Ajayamohan
,
Narendra Reddy Nelli
,
Ricardo Fonseca
,
Michael Weston
, and
Vineeth Valappil

Abstract

The central aim of this work is to investigate the characteristics of fog events over the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and identify the underlying physical processes responsible for fog initiation and dissipation. To achieve this, hourly meteorological measurements at eight airport stations, along with ERA5 reanalysis data (1995–2018), are utilized. The analysis indicates the dominance of radiation fog (RAD) as, on average, 70% of the observed events fall under this category. Fog in the UAE typically forms between 2000 and 0200 local time (LT) and dissipates between 0600 and 0900 LT. During a typical dense fog event recorded during 22–23 December 2017, cooling and moistening tendencies of up to 1.2 K h−1 and 0.7 g kg−1 h−1 are observed ~5–6 h before fog onset. In the vertical, a dry and warm layer above 750 hPa gradually descends from above 500 hPa to promote the development of fog. Similar conclusions are reached when analyzing composites of fog events. Further, the variability of fog occurrence associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns is explored. It is concluded that the El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cold) phases exhibit very different spatial characteristics with respect to surface meteorological variables. In particular, during El Niño events, the near-surface atmosphere is cooler and moister compared to La Niña events, favoring RAD fog formation over the UAE. Besides, fog events during El Niño years tend to last longer compared to La Niña years due to an earlier onset.

Open access
Suryachandra A. Rao
,
B. N. Goswami
,
A. K. Sahai
,
E. N. Rajagopal
,
P. Mukhopadhyay
,
M. Rajeevan
,
S. Nayak
,
L. S. Rathore
,
S. S. C. Shenoi
,
K. J. Ramesh
,
R. S. Nanjundiah
,
M. Ravichandran
,
A. K. Mitra
,
D. S. Pai
,
S. K. R. Bhowmik
,
A. Hazra
,
S. Mahapatra
,
S. K. Saha
,
H. S. Chaudhari
,
S. Joseph
,
P. Sreenivas
,
S. Pokhrel
,
P. A. Pillai
,
R. Chattopadhyay
,
M. Deshpande
,
R. P. M. Krishna
,
Renu S. Das
,
V. S. Prasad
,
S. Abhilash
,
S. Panickal
,
R. Krishnan
,
S. Kumar
,
D. A. Ramu
,
S. S. Reddy
,
A. Arora
,
T. Goswami
,
A. Rai
,
A. Srivastava
,
M. Pradhan
,
S. Tirkey
,
M. Ganai
,
R. Mandal
,
A. Dey
,
S. Sarkar
,
S. Malviya
,
A. Dhakate
,
K. Salunke
, and
Parvinder Maini

Abstract

In spite of the summer monsoon’s importance in determining the life and economy of an agriculture-dependent country like India, committed efforts toward improving its prediction and simulation have been limited. Hence, a focused mission mode program Monsoon Mission (MM) was founded in 2012 to spur progress in this direction. This article explains the efforts made by the Earth System Science Organization (ESSO), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India, in implementing MM to develop a dynamical prediction framework to improve monsoon prediction. Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and the Met Office Unified Model (UM) were chosen as the base models. The efforts in this program have resulted in 1) unparalleled skill of 0.63 for seasonal prediction of the Indian monsoon (for the period 1981–2010) in a high-resolution (∼38 km) seasonal prediction system, relative to present-generation seasonal prediction models; 2) extended-range predictions by a CFS-based grand multimodel ensemble (MME) prediction system; and 3) a gain of 2-day lead time from very high-resolution (12.5 km) Global Forecast System (GFS)-based short-range predictions up to 10 days. These prediction skills are on par with other global leading weather and climate centers, and are better in some areas. Several developmental activities like coupled data assimilation, changes in convective parameterization, cloud microphysics schemes, and parameterization of land surface processes (including snow and sea ice) led to the improvements such as reducing the strong model biases in the Indian summer monsoon simulation and elsewhere in the tropics.

Open access
G. S. Bhat
,
S. Gadgil
,
P. V. Hareesh Kumar
,
S. R. Kalsi
,
P. Madhusoodanan
,
V. S. N. Murty
,
C. V. K. Prasada Rao
,
V. Ramesh Babu
,
L. V. G. Rao
,
R. R. Rao
,
M. Ravichandran
,
K. G. Reddy
,
P. Sanjeeva Rao
,
D. Sengupta
,
D. R. Sikka
,
J. Swain
, and
P. N. Vinayachandran

The first observational experiment under the Indian Climate Research Programme, called the Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX), was carried out during July–August 1999. BOBMEX was aimed at measurements of important variables of the atmosphere, ocean, and their interface to gain deeper insight into some of the processes that govern the variability of organized convection over the bay. Simultaneous time series observations were carried out in the northern and southern Bay of Bengal from ships and moored buoys. About 80 scientists from 15 different institutions in India collaborated during BOBMEX to make observations in most-hostile conditions of the raging monsoon. In this paper, the objectives and the design of BOBMEX are described and some initial results presented.

During the BOBMEX field phase there were several active spells of convection over the bay, separated by weak spells. Observation with high-resolution radiosondes, launched for the first time over the northern bay, showed that the magnitudes of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the convective inhibition energy were comparable to those for the atmosphere over the west Pacific warm pool. CAPE decreased by 2–3 kg−1 following convection, and recovered in a time period of 1–2 days. The surface wind speed was generally higher than 8 m s−1.

The thermohaline structure as well as its time evolution during the BOBMEX field phase were found to be different in the northern bay than in the southern bay. Over both the regions, the SST decreased during rain events and increased in cloud-free conditions. Over the season as a whole, the upper-layer salinity decreased for the north bay and increased for the south bay. The variation in SST during 1999 was found to be of smaller amplitude than in 1998. Further analysis of the surface fluxes and currents is expected to give insight into the nature of coupling.

Full access
P. A. Francis
,
A. K. Jithin
,
J. B. Effy
,
A. Chatterjee
,
K. Chakraborty
,
A. Paul
,
B. Balaji
,
S. S. C. Shenoi
,
P. Biswamoy
,
A. Mukherjee
,
P. Singh
,
B. Deepsankar
,
S. Siva Reddy
,
P. N. Vinayachandran
,
M. S. Girish Kumar
,
T. V. S. Udaya Bhaskar
,
M. Ravichandran
,
A. S. Unnikrishnan
,
D. Shankar
,
A. Prakash
,
S. G. Aparna
,
R. Harikumar
,
K. Kaviyazhahu
,
K. Suprit
,
R. V. Shesu
,
N. Kiran Kumar
,
N. Srinivasa Rao
,
K. Annapurnaiah
,
R. Venkatesan
,
A. S. Rao
,
E. N. Rajagopal
,
V. S. Prasad
,
M. D. Gupta
,
T. M. Balakrishnan Nair
,
E. P. R. Rao
, and
B. V. Satyanarayana
Full access
P. A. Francis
,
A. K. Jithin
,
J. B. Effy
,
A. Chatterjee
,
K. Chakraborty
,
A. Paul
,
B. Balaji
,
S. S. C. Shenoi
,
P. Biswamoy
,
A. Mukherjee
,
P. Singh
,
B. Deepsankar
,
S. Siva Reddy
,
P. N. Vinayachandran
,
M. S. Girish Kumar
,
T. V. S. Udaya Bhaskar
,
M. Ravichandran
,
A. S. Unnikrishnan
,
D. Shankar
,
A. Prakash
,
S. G. Aparna
,
R. Harikumar
,
K. Kaviyazhahu
,
K. Suprit
,
R. V. Shesu
,
N. Kiran Kumar
,
N. Srinivasa Rao
,
K. Annapurnaiah
,
R. Venkatesan
,
A. S. Rao
,
E. N. Rajagopal
,
V. S. Prasad
,
M. D. Gupta
,
T. M. Balakrishnan Nair
,
E. P. R. Rao
, and
B. V. Satyanarayana

Abstract

A good understanding of the general circulation features of the oceans, particularly of the coastal waters, and ability to predict the key oceanographic parameters with good accuracy and sufficient lead time are necessary for the safe conduct of maritime activities such as fishing, shipping, and offshore industries. Considering these requirements and buoyed by the advancements in the field of ocean modeling, data assimilation, and ocean observation networks along with the availability of the high-performance computational facility in India, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services has set up a “High-Resolution Operational Ocean Forecast and Reanalysis System” (HOOFS) with an aim to provide accurate ocean analysis and forecasts for the public, researchers, and other types of users like navigators and the Indian Coast Guard. Major components of HOOFS are (i) a suite of numerical ocean models configured for the Indian Ocean and the coastal waters using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for forecasting physical and biogeochemical state of the ocean and (ii) the data assimilation based on local ensemble transform Kalman filter that assimilates in situ and satellite observations in ROMS. Apart from the routine forecasts of key oceanographic parameters, a few important applications such as (i) Potential Fishing Zone forecasting system and (ii) Search and Rescue Aid Tool are also developed as part of the HOOFS project. The architecture of HOOFS, an account of the quality of ocean analysis and forecasts produced by it and important applications developed based on HOOFS are briefly discussed in this article.

Free access