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Abstract
Relationships between clear-sky longwave radiation and aspects of the atmospheric hydrological cycle are quantified in models, reanalyses, and observations over the period 1980–2000. The robust sensitivity of clear-sky surface net longwave radiation (SNLc) to column-integrated water vapor (CWV) of 1–1.5 W m−2 mm−1 combined with the positive relationship between CWV and surface temperature (Ts ) explains substantial increases in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere (Q LWc) to the surface over the period. Clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLRc) is highly sensitive to changes in aerosol and greenhouse gas concentrations in addition to temperature and humidity. Over tropical ocean regions of mean descent, Q LWc increases with Ts at ∼3.5–5.5 W m−2 K−1 for reanalyses, estimates derived from satellite data, and models without volcanic forcing included. Increased Q LWc with warming across the tropical oceans helps to explain model ensemble mean increases in precipitation of 0.1–0.15 mm day−1 K−1, which are primarily determined by ascent regions where precipitation increases at the rate expected from the Clausius–Clapeyron equation. The implications for future projections in the atmospheric hydrological cycle are discussed.
Abstract
Relationships between clear-sky longwave radiation and aspects of the atmospheric hydrological cycle are quantified in models, reanalyses, and observations over the period 1980–2000. The robust sensitivity of clear-sky surface net longwave radiation (SNLc) to column-integrated water vapor (CWV) of 1–1.5 W m−2 mm−1 combined with the positive relationship between CWV and surface temperature (Ts ) explains substantial increases in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere (Q LWc) to the surface over the period. Clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLRc) is highly sensitive to changes in aerosol and greenhouse gas concentrations in addition to temperature and humidity. Over tropical ocean regions of mean descent, Q LWc increases with Ts at ∼3.5–5.5 W m−2 K−1 for reanalyses, estimates derived from satellite data, and models without volcanic forcing included. Increased Q LWc with warming across the tropical oceans helps to explain model ensemble mean increases in precipitation of 0.1–0.15 mm day−1 K−1, which are primarily determined by ascent regions where precipitation increases at the rate expected from the Clausius–Clapeyron equation. The implications for future projections in the atmospheric hydrological cycle are discussed.
Abstract
Surface observations from a tropical ocean and a subarctic land-based site are employed to evaluate the clear-sky surface downwelling longwave irradiance (SDL) simulated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA). Comparison of simulated clear-sky and observed all-sky SDL highlights coincident periods of irradiance variability on various timescales in both datasets. Measurements during cloudy conditions are subsequently removed using a combination of the measured shortwave and longwave surface irradiances and recorded rainfall. The most reasonable filtering specifications are determined experimentally; clear-sky filtered observations of SDL are compared with corresponding simulated values. The root-mean-square differences between simulated and observed clear-sky SDL are within the observational uncertainty of ±10 W m−2. Simulated clear-sky SDL is about 8 W m−2 more than the measured tropical values. In the subarctic, the simulated clear-sky SDL is less than observed values in the winter and greater than observed values in the summer. The clear-sky SDL differences are explained partially by the differences in ERA moisture profiles and near-surface temperature in comparison with radiosonde ascents. A primary limitation of the radiometric measurements is the lack of information regarding cloud amount; if model-simulated clear-sky fluxes and cloud radiative forcing are to be fully evaluated, it is highly desirable that such information should accompany surface-based radiation data.
Abstract
Surface observations from a tropical ocean and a subarctic land-based site are employed to evaluate the clear-sky surface downwelling longwave irradiance (SDL) simulated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA). Comparison of simulated clear-sky and observed all-sky SDL highlights coincident periods of irradiance variability on various timescales in both datasets. Measurements during cloudy conditions are subsequently removed using a combination of the measured shortwave and longwave surface irradiances and recorded rainfall. The most reasonable filtering specifications are determined experimentally; clear-sky filtered observations of SDL are compared with corresponding simulated values. The root-mean-square differences between simulated and observed clear-sky SDL are within the observational uncertainty of ±10 W m−2. Simulated clear-sky SDL is about 8 W m−2 more than the measured tropical values. In the subarctic, the simulated clear-sky SDL is less than observed values in the winter and greater than observed values in the summer. The clear-sky SDL differences are explained partially by the differences in ERA moisture profiles and near-surface temperature in comparison with radiosonde ascents. A primary limitation of the radiometric measurements is the lack of information regarding cloud amount; if model-simulated clear-sky fluxes and cloud radiative forcing are to be fully evaluated, it is highly desirable that such information should accompany surface-based radiation data.
Abstract
Tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperature plays a pivotal role in mechanisms that determine global mean surface temperature variability. In this study, the surface flux contribution to recent cooling of the tropical eastern Pacific is investigated using data from three atmospheric reanalyses with full assimilation of observations, an observation-based net surface energy flux reconstruction, and 15 atmosphere-only climate model simulations. For ERA-Interim, 78% of the decrease in net surface flux (−0.65 W m−2 yr−1 over 1988–2008) is explained by the latent heat flux variability. Latent heat flux variability differs between datasets, and this is investigated using a bulk formula. It is found that discrepancies in wind speed change explain contrasting latent heat flux trends across datasets. The significant increase in wind speed of 0.26 m s−1 decade−1 over the tropical eastern Pacific in ERA-Interim is not reproduced by satellite or buoy observations or atmosphere-only climate model simulations, casting questions on the reliability of reanalysis-based surface fluxes over the tropical eastern Pacific.
Abstract
Tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperature plays a pivotal role in mechanisms that determine global mean surface temperature variability. In this study, the surface flux contribution to recent cooling of the tropical eastern Pacific is investigated using data from three atmospheric reanalyses with full assimilation of observations, an observation-based net surface energy flux reconstruction, and 15 atmosphere-only climate model simulations. For ERA-Interim, 78% of the decrease in net surface flux (−0.65 W m−2 yr−1 over 1988–2008) is explained by the latent heat flux variability. Latent heat flux variability differs between datasets, and this is investigated using a bulk formula. It is found that discrepancies in wind speed change explain contrasting latent heat flux trends across datasets. The significant increase in wind speed of 0.26 m s−1 decade−1 over the tropical eastern Pacific in ERA-Interim is not reproduced by satellite or buoy observations or atmosphere-only climate model simulations, casting questions on the reliability of reanalysis-based surface fluxes over the tropical eastern Pacific.
Abstract
The authors estimate climate warming–related twenty-first-century changes of moisture transports from the descending into the ascending regions in the tropics. Unlike previous studies that employ time and space averaging, here homogeneous high horizontal and vertical resolution data from an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) climate model are used. This allows for estimating changes in much greater detail (e.g., the estimation of the distribution of ascending and descending regions, changes in the vertical profile, and separating changes of the inward and outward transports). Low-level inward and midlevel outward moisture transports of the convective regions in the tropics are found to increase in a simulated anthropogenically warmed climate as compared to a simulated twentieth-century atmosphere, indicating an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Since an increase of absolute inward transport exceeds the absolute increase of outward transport, the resulting budget is positive, meaning that more water is projected to converge in the moist tropics. The intensification is found mainly to be due to the higher amount of water in the atmosphere, while the contribution of weakening wind counteracts this response marginally. In addition the changing statistical properties of the vertical profile of the moisture transport are investigated and the importance of the substantial outflow of moisture from the moist tropics at midlevels is demonstrated.
Abstract
The authors estimate climate warming–related twenty-first-century changes of moisture transports from the descending into the ascending regions in the tropics. Unlike previous studies that employ time and space averaging, here homogeneous high horizontal and vertical resolution data from an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) climate model are used. This allows for estimating changes in much greater detail (e.g., the estimation of the distribution of ascending and descending regions, changes in the vertical profile, and separating changes of the inward and outward transports). Low-level inward and midlevel outward moisture transports of the convective regions in the tropics are found to increase in a simulated anthropogenically warmed climate as compared to a simulated twentieth-century atmosphere, indicating an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Since an increase of absolute inward transport exceeds the absolute increase of outward transport, the resulting budget is positive, meaning that more water is projected to converge in the moist tropics. The intensification is found mainly to be due to the higher amount of water in the atmosphere, while the contribution of weakening wind counteracts this response marginally. In addition the changing statistical properties of the vertical profile of the moisture transport are investigated and the importance of the substantial outflow of moisture from the moist tropics at midlevels is demonstrated.
Abstract
NASA Precipitation Measurement Mission observations are used to evaluate the diurnal cycle of precipitation from three CMIP6 models (NCAR-CESM2, CNRM-CM6.1, CNRM-ESM2.1) and the ERA5 reanalysis. NASA’s global-gridded IMERG product, which combines spaceborne microwave radiometer, infrared sensor, and ground-based gauge measurements, provides high-spatiotemporal-resolution (0.1° and half-hourly) estimates that are suitable for evaluating the diurnal cycle in models, as determined against the ground-based radar network over the conterminous United States. IMERG estimates are coarsened to the spatial and hourly resolution of the state-of-the-art CMIP6 and ERA5 products, and their diurnal cycles are compared across multiple decades of June–August in the 60°N–60°S domain (IMERG and ERA5: 2000–19; NCAR and CNRM: 1979–2008). Low-precipitation regions (and weak-amplitude regions when analyzing the diurnal phase) are excluded from analyses so as to assess only robust diurnal signals. Observations identify greater diurnal amplitudes over land (26%–134% of the precipitation mean; 5th–95th percentile) than over ocean (14%–66%). ERA5, NCAR, and CNRM underestimate amplitudes over ocean, and ERA5 overestimates over land. IMERG observes a distinct diurnal cycle only in certain regions, with precipitation peaking broadly between 1400 and 2100 LST over land (2100–0600 LST over mountainous and varying-terrain regions) and 0000 and 1200 LST over ocean. The simulated diurnal cycle is unrealistically early when compared with observations, particularly over land (NCAR-CESM2 AMIP: −1 h; ERA5: −2 h; CNRM-CM6.1 AMIP: −4 h on average) with nocturnal maxima not well represented over mountainous regions. Furthermore, ERA5’s representation of the diurnal cycle is too simplified, with less interannual variability in the time of maximum relative to observations over many regions.
Abstract
NASA Precipitation Measurement Mission observations are used to evaluate the diurnal cycle of precipitation from three CMIP6 models (NCAR-CESM2, CNRM-CM6.1, CNRM-ESM2.1) and the ERA5 reanalysis. NASA’s global-gridded IMERG product, which combines spaceborne microwave radiometer, infrared sensor, and ground-based gauge measurements, provides high-spatiotemporal-resolution (0.1° and half-hourly) estimates that are suitable for evaluating the diurnal cycle in models, as determined against the ground-based radar network over the conterminous United States. IMERG estimates are coarsened to the spatial and hourly resolution of the state-of-the-art CMIP6 and ERA5 products, and their diurnal cycles are compared across multiple decades of June–August in the 60°N–60°S domain (IMERG and ERA5: 2000–19; NCAR and CNRM: 1979–2008). Low-precipitation regions (and weak-amplitude regions when analyzing the diurnal phase) are excluded from analyses so as to assess only robust diurnal signals. Observations identify greater diurnal amplitudes over land (26%–134% of the precipitation mean; 5th–95th percentile) than over ocean (14%–66%). ERA5, NCAR, and CNRM underestimate amplitudes over ocean, and ERA5 overestimates over land. IMERG observes a distinct diurnal cycle only in certain regions, with precipitation peaking broadly between 1400 and 2100 LST over land (2100–0600 LST over mountainous and varying-terrain regions) and 0000 and 1200 LST over ocean. The simulated diurnal cycle is unrealistically early when compared with observations, particularly over land (NCAR-CESM2 AMIP: −1 h; ERA5: −2 h; CNRM-CM6.1 AMIP: −4 h on average) with nocturnal maxima not well represented over mountainous regions. Furthermore, ERA5’s representation of the diurnal cycle is too simplified, with less interannual variability in the time of maximum relative to observations over many regions.
Abstract
Forecasts of precipitation and water vapor made by the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are evaluated using products from satellite observations by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) for June–September 2011, with a focus on tropical areas (30°S–30°N). Consistent with previous studies, the predicted diurnal cycle of precipitation peaks too early (by ~3 h) and the amplitude is too strong over both tropical ocean and land regions. Most of the wet and dry precipitation biases, particularly those over land, can be explained by the diurnal-cycle discrepancies. An overall wet bias over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans and a dry bias over the western Pacific warm pool and India are linked with similar biases in the climate model, which shares common parameterizations with the NWP version. Whereas precipitation biases develop within hours in the NWP model, underestimates in water vapor (which are assimilated by the NWP model) evolve over the first few days of the forecast. The NWP simulations are able to capture observed daily-to-intraseasonal variability in water vapor and precipitation, including fluctuations associated with tropical cyclones.
Abstract
Forecasts of precipitation and water vapor made by the Met Office global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are evaluated using products from satellite observations by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) for June–September 2011, with a focus on tropical areas (30°S–30°N). Consistent with previous studies, the predicted diurnal cycle of precipitation peaks too early (by ~3 h) and the amplitude is too strong over both tropical ocean and land regions. Most of the wet and dry precipitation biases, particularly those over land, can be explained by the diurnal-cycle discrepancies. An overall wet bias over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans and a dry bias over the western Pacific warm pool and India are linked with similar biases in the climate model, which shares common parameterizations with the NWP version. Whereas precipitation biases develop within hours in the NWP model, underestimates in water vapor (which are assimilated by the NWP model) evolve over the first few days of the forecast. The NWP simulations are able to capture observed daily-to-intraseasonal variability in water vapor and precipitation, including fluctuations associated with tropical cyclones.
Abstract
Satellite measurements of the radiation budget and data from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis are used to investigate the links between anomalous cloud radiative forcing over the tropical west Pacific warm pool and the tropical dynamics and sea surface temperature (SST) distribution during 1998. The ratio, N, of the shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) to longwave cloud forcing (LWCF) (N = −SWCF/LWCF) is used to infer information on cloud altitude. A higher than average N during 1998 appears to be related to two separate phenomena. First, dynamic regime-dependent changes explain high values of N (associated with low cloud altitude) for small magnitudes of SWCF and LWCF (low cloud fraction), which reflect the unusual occurrence of mean subsiding motion over the tropical west Pacific during 1998, associated with the anomalous SST distribution. Second, Tropics-wide long-term changes in the spatial-mean cloud forcing, independent of dynamic regime, explain the higher values of N during both 1998 and in 1994/95. The changes in dynamic regime and their anomalous structure in 1998 are well simulated by version HadAM3 of the Hadley Centre climate model, forced by the observed SSTs. However, the LWCF and SWCF are poorly simulated, as are the interannual changes in N. It is argued that improved representation of LWCF and SWCF and their dependence on dynamical forcing are required before the cloud feedbacks simulated by climate models can be trusted.
Abstract
Satellite measurements of the radiation budget and data from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis are used to investigate the links between anomalous cloud radiative forcing over the tropical west Pacific warm pool and the tropical dynamics and sea surface temperature (SST) distribution during 1998. The ratio, N, of the shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) to longwave cloud forcing (LWCF) (N = −SWCF/LWCF) is used to infer information on cloud altitude. A higher than average N during 1998 appears to be related to two separate phenomena. First, dynamic regime-dependent changes explain high values of N (associated with low cloud altitude) for small magnitudes of SWCF and LWCF (low cloud fraction), which reflect the unusual occurrence of mean subsiding motion over the tropical west Pacific during 1998, associated with the anomalous SST distribution. Second, Tropics-wide long-term changes in the spatial-mean cloud forcing, independent of dynamic regime, explain the higher values of N during both 1998 and in 1994/95. The changes in dynamic regime and their anomalous structure in 1998 are well simulated by version HadAM3 of the Hadley Centre climate model, forced by the observed SSTs. However, the LWCF and SWCF are poorly simulated, as are the interannual changes in N. It is argued that improved representation of LWCF and SWCF and their dependence on dynamical forcing are required before the cloud feedbacks simulated by climate models can be trusted.
Abstract
Changes in the seasonality of precipitation over Africa have high potential for detrimental socioeconomic impacts due to high societal dependence upon seasonal rainfall. Here, for the first time we conduct a continental-scale analysis of changes in wet season characteristics under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projection scenarios across an ensemble of CMIP5 models using an objective methodology to determine the onset and cessation of the wet season. A delay in the wet season over West Africa and the Sahel of over 5–10 days on average, and later onset of the wet season over southern Africa, is identified and associated with increasing strength of the Saharan heat low in late boreal summer and a northward shift in the position of the tropical rain belt over August–December. Over the Horn of Africa rainfall during the “short rains” season is projected to increase by over 100 mm on average by the end of the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 scenario. Average rainfall per rainy day is projected to increase, while the number of rainy days in the wet season declines in regions of stable or declining rainfall (western and southern Africa) and remains constant in central Africa, where rainfall is projected to increase. Adaptation strategies should account for shorter wet seasons, increasing rainfall intensity, and decreasing rainfall frequency, which will have implications for crop yields and surface water supplies.
Abstract
Changes in the seasonality of precipitation over Africa have high potential for detrimental socioeconomic impacts due to high societal dependence upon seasonal rainfall. Here, for the first time we conduct a continental-scale analysis of changes in wet season characteristics under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projection scenarios across an ensemble of CMIP5 models using an objective methodology to determine the onset and cessation of the wet season. A delay in the wet season over West Africa and the Sahel of over 5–10 days on average, and later onset of the wet season over southern Africa, is identified and associated with increasing strength of the Saharan heat low in late boreal summer and a northward shift in the position of the tropical rain belt over August–December. Over the Horn of Africa rainfall during the “short rains” season is projected to increase by over 100 mm on average by the end of the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 scenario. Average rainfall per rainy day is projected to increase, while the number of rainy days in the wet season declines in regions of stable or declining rainfall (western and southern Africa) and remains constant in central Africa, where rainfall is projected to increase. Adaptation strategies should account for shorter wet seasons, increasing rainfall intensity, and decreasing rainfall frequency, which will have implications for crop yields and surface water supplies.
Abstract
Climate change will result in more dry days and longer dry spells; however, the resulting impacts on crop growth depend on the timing of these longer dry spells in the annual cycle. Using an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and phase 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) simulations, and a range of emission scenarios, here we examine changes in wet and dry spell characteristics under future climate change across the extended tropics in wet and dry seasons separately. Delays in the wet seasons by up to 2 weeks are projected by 2070–99 across South America, southern Africa, West Africa, and the Sahel. An increase in both mean and maximum dry spell length during the dry season is found across Central and South America, southern Africa, and Australia, with a reduction in dry season rainfall also found in these regions. Mean dry season dry spell lengths increase by 5–10 days over northeast South America and southwest Africa. However, changes in dry spell length during the wet season are much smaller across the tropics with limited model consensus. Mean dry season maximum temperature increases are found to be up to 3°C higher than mean wet season maximum temperature increases over South America, southern Africa, and parts of Asia. Longer dry spells, fewer wet days, and higher temperatures during the dry season may lead to increasing dry season aridity and have detrimental consequences for perennial crops.
Abstract
Climate change will result in more dry days and longer dry spells; however, the resulting impacts on crop growth depend on the timing of these longer dry spells in the annual cycle. Using an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and phase 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) simulations, and a range of emission scenarios, here we examine changes in wet and dry spell characteristics under future climate change across the extended tropics in wet and dry seasons separately. Delays in the wet seasons by up to 2 weeks are projected by 2070–99 across South America, southern Africa, West Africa, and the Sahel. An increase in both mean and maximum dry spell length during the dry season is found across Central and South America, southern Africa, and Australia, with a reduction in dry season rainfall also found in these regions. Mean dry season dry spell lengths increase by 5–10 days over northeast South America and southwest Africa. However, changes in dry spell length during the wet season are much smaller across the tropics with limited model consensus. Mean dry season maximum temperature increases are found to be up to 3°C higher than mean wet season maximum temperature increases over South America, southern Africa, and parts of Asia. Longer dry spells, fewer wet days, and higher temperatures during the dry season may lead to increasing dry season aridity and have detrimental consequences for perennial crops.
Abstract
The contribution of cloud to the radiation budget of southern West Africa (SWA) is poorly understood and yet it is important for understanding regional monsoon evolution and for evaluating and improving climate models, which have large biases in this region. Radiative transfer calculations applied to atmospheric profiles obtained from the CERES–CloudSat–CALIPSO–MODIS (CCCM) dataset are used to investigate the effects of 12 different cloud types (defined by their vertical structure) on the regional energy budget of SWA (5°–10°N, 8°W–8°E) during June–September. We show that the large regional mean cloud radiative effect in SWA is due to nonnegligible contributions from many different cloud types; eight cloud types have a cloud fraction larger than 5% and contribute at least 5% of the regional mean shortwave cloud radiative effect at the top of the atmosphere. Low clouds, which are poorly observed by passive satellite measurements, were found to cause net radiative cooling of the atmosphere, which reduces the heating from other cloud types by approximately 10%. The sensitivity of the radiation budget to underestimating low-cloud cover is also investigated. The radiative effect of missing low cloud is found to be up to approximately −25 W m−2 for upwelling shortwave irradiance at the top of the atmosphere and 35 W m−2 for downwelling shortwave irradiance at the surface.
Abstract
The contribution of cloud to the radiation budget of southern West Africa (SWA) is poorly understood and yet it is important for understanding regional monsoon evolution and for evaluating and improving climate models, which have large biases in this region. Radiative transfer calculations applied to atmospheric profiles obtained from the CERES–CloudSat–CALIPSO–MODIS (CCCM) dataset are used to investigate the effects of 12 different cloud types (defined by their vertical structure) on the regional energy budget of SWA (5°–10°N, 8°W–8°E) during June–September. We show that the large regional mean cloud radiative effect in SWA is due to nonnegligible contributions from many different cloud types; eight cloud types have a cloud fraction larger than 5% and contribute at least 5% of the regional mean shortwave cloud radiative effect at the top of the atmosphere. Low clouds, which are poorly observed by passive satellite measurements, were found to cause net radiative cooling of the atmosphere, which reduces the heating from other cloud types by approximately 10%. The sensitivity of the radiation budget to underestimating low-cloud cover is also investigated. The radiative effect of missing low cloud is found to be up to approximately −25 W m−2 for upwelling shortwave irradiance at the top of the atmosphere and 35 W m−2 for downwelling shortwave irradiance at the surface.
