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- Author or Editor: Roger A. Pielke Sr. x
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Observations of the earth's heat budget provide a real-world constraint on the radiative forcing which is simulated in global climate change models. Assessments, such as the IPCC, would more effectively depict changes over time in the climate system by using a heat balance perspective in order to diagnose the earth's radiative imbalance. This commentary describes this approach and presents reasons such an assessment is valuable.
Observations of the earth's heat budget provide a real-world constraint on the radiative forcing which is simulated in global climate change models. Assessments, such as the IPCC, would more effectively depict changes over time in the climate system by using a heat balance perspective in order to diagnose the earth's radiative imbalance. This commentary describes this approach and presents reasons such an assessment is valuable.
Abstract
A three-dimensional, fully compressible cloud model is used to simulate a convective storm in order to investigate the properties of compression waves and gravity waves induced by latent heat release. Time series of the low-level pressure perturbations caused by the propagating waves are examined at various distances from the storm. A compression wave that is close to hydrostatic balance and can be considered to be a Lamb wave, which propagates in the horizontal plane, emerges from the storm. This latter property gives the wave a distinctly two-dimensional character that is clarified by comparison with a linear model of a two-dimensional thermally induced compression wave. This has implications for its shape and results in a decay rate with distance propagated from the source of 1/(distance)1/2. The period of the Lamb wave is determined primarily by the time it takes for the storm to develop and decay. The fast-moving Lamb wave is trailed by slower-moving thermally induced gravity waves. It is found that the amplitude of the gravity waves decay with 1/distance. Distinct gravity wave modes can be identified. The first mode propagates the fastest and results in deep subsidence warming. The second mode propagates at half the speed of the first and causes weak low-level uplift, which in some convective situations might aid the development of new convection.
An analysis of the transfer of internal and gravitational potential energies showed that the net transfer by the Lamb wave was approximately equal to the net increase of total energy in the atmosphere brought about by the convective storm. This result suggests that physical interpretations of total energy transfer in the atmosphere need to take into account that it can be transferred in a wavelike manner at the speed of sound.
An interesting buoyancy oscillation occurred when the downdraft air overshot its buoyant equilibrium level, which resulted in a resurgence of convection. The convection was able to obtain moderate strength by feeding on moist environmental air that had been advected over the top of the cold pool. This mechanism may be a factor contributing to the early meso-β convective cycle that has been observed in many convective systems.
Abstract
A three-dimensional, fully compressible cloud model is used to simulate a convective storm in order to investigate the properties of compression waves and gravity waves induced by latent heat release. Time series of the low-level pressure perturbations caused by the propagating waves are examined at various distances from the storm. A compression wave that is close to hydrostatic balance and can be considered to be a Lamb wave, which propagates in the horizontal plane, emerges from the storm. This latter property gives the wave a distinctly two-dimensional character that is clarified by comparison with a linear model of a two-dimensional thermally induced compression wave. This has implications for its shape and results in a decay rate with distance propagated from the source of 1/(distance)1/2. The period of the Lamb wave is determined primarily by the time it takes for the storm to develop and decay. The fast-moving Lamb wave is trailed by slower-moving thermally induced gravity waves. It is found that the amplitude of the gravity waves decay with 1/distance. Distinct gravity wave modes can be identified. The first mode propagates the fastest and results in deep subsidence warming. The second mode propagates at half the speed of the first and causes weak low-level uplift, which in some convective situations might aid the development of new convection.
An analysis of the transfer of internal and gravitational potential energies showed that the net transfer by the Lamb wave was approximately equal to the net increase of total energy in the atmosphere brought about by the convective storm. This result suggests that physical interpretations of total energy transfer in the atmosphere need to take into account that it can be transferred in a wavelike manner at the speed of sound.
An interesting buoyancy oscillation occurred when the downdraft air overshot its buoyant equilibrium level, which resulted in a resurgence of convection. The convection was able to obtain moderate strength by feeding on moist environmental air that had been advected over the top of the cold pool. This mechanism may be a factor contributing to the early meso-β convective cycle that has been observed in many convective systems.
Abstract
The goal of this study is to transform the Harrington radiation parameterization into a transfer scheme or lookup table, which provides essentially the same output (heating rate profile and short- and longwave fluxes at the surface) at a fraction of the computational cost. The methodology put forth here does not introduce a new parameterization simply derived from the Harrington scheme but, rather, shows that given a generic parameterization it is possible to build an algorithm, largely not based on the physics, that mimics the outcome of the parent parameterization. The core concept is to compute the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of all of the input variables of the parent scheme, run the scheme on the EOFs, and express the output of a generic input sounding exploiting the input–output pairs associated with the EOFs. The weights are based on the difference between the input and EOFs water vapor mixing ratios. A detailed overview of the algorithm and the development of a few transfer schemes are also presented. Results show very good agreement (r > 0.91) between the different transfer schemes and the Harrington radiation parameterization with a very significant reduction in computational cost (at least 95%).
Abstract
The goal of this study is to transform the Harrington radiation parameterization into a transfer scheme or lookup table, which provides essentially the same output (heating rate profile and short- and longwave fluxes at the surface) at a fraction of the computational cost. The methodology put forth here does not introduce a new parameterization simply derived from the Harrington scheme but, rather, shows that given a generic parameterization it is possible to build an algorithm, largely not based on the physics, that mimics the outcome of the parent parameterization. The core concept is to compute the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of all of the input variables of the parent scheme, run the scheme on the EOFs, and express the output of a generic input sounding exploiting the input–output pairs associated with the EOFs. The weights are based on the difference between the input and EOFs water vapor mixing ratios. A detailed overview of the algorithm and the development of a few transfer schemes are also presented. Results show very good agreement (r > 0.91) between the different transfer schemes and the Harrington radiation parameterization with a very significant reduction in computational cost (at least 95%).
Abstract
Both observational and modeling studies clearly demonstrate that land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) play an important biogeophysical and biogeochemical role in the climate system from the landscape to regional and even continental scales. Without comprehensively considering these impacts, an adequate response to the threats posed by human intervention into the climate system will not be adequate.
Public policy plays an important role in shaping local- to national-scale land-use practices. An array of national policies has been developed to influence the nature and spatial extent of LULCC. Observational evidence suggests that these policies, in addition to international trade treaties and protocols, have direct effects on LULCC and thus the climate system.
However, these policies, agreements, and protocols fail to adequately recognize these impacts. To make these more effective and thus to minimize climatic impacts, we propose several recommendations: 1) translating international treaties and protocols into national policies and actions to ensure positive climate outcomes; 2) updating international protocols to reflect advancement in climate–LULCC science; 3) continuing to invest in the measurements, databases, reporting, and verification activities associated with LULCC and LULCC-relevant climate monitoring; and 4) reshaping Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+ (REDD+) to fully account for the multiscale biogeophysical and biogeochemical impacts of LULCC on the climate system.
Abstract
Both observational and modeling studies clearly demonstrate that land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) play an important biogeophysical and biogeochemical role in the climate system from the landscape to regional and even continental scales. Without comprehensively considering these impacts, an adequate response to the threats posed by human intervention into the climate system will not be adequate.
Public policy plays an important role in shaping local- to national-scale land-use practices. An array of national policies has been developed to influence the nature and spatial extent of LULCC. Observational evidence suggests that these policies, in addition to international trade treaties and protocols, have direct effects on LULCC and thus the climate system.
However, these policies, agreements, and protocols fail to adequately recognize these impacts. To make these more effective and thus to minimize climatic impacts, we propose several recommendations: 1) translating international treaties and protocols into national policies and actions to ensure positive climate outcomes; 2) updating international protocols to reflect advancement in climate–LULCC science; 3) continuing to invest in the measurements, databases, reporting, and verification activities associated with LULCC and LULCC-relevant climate monitoring; and 4) reshaping Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+ (REDD+) to fully account for the multiscale biogeophysical and biogeochemical impacts of LULCC on the climate system.
Abstract
On several occasions, winter freezes have wrought severe destruction on Florida agriculture. A series of devastating freezes around the turn of the twentieth century, and again during the 1980s, were related to anomalies in the large-scale flow of the ocean–atmosphere system. During the twentieth century, substantial areas of wetlands in south Florida were drained and converted to agricultural land for winter fresh vegetable and sugarcane production. During this time, much of the citrus industry also was relocated to those areas to escape the risk of freeze farther to the north. The purpose of this paper is to present a modeling study designed to investigate whether the conversion of the wetlands to agriculture itself could have resulted in or exacerbated the severity of recent freezes in those agricultural areas of south Florida.
For three recent freeze events, a pair of simulations was undertaken with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. One member of each pair employed land surface properties that represent pre-1900s (near natural) land cover, whereas the other member of each pair employed data that represent near-current land-use patterns as derived from analysis of Landsat data valid for 1992/93. These two different land cover datasets capture well the conversion of wetlands to agriculture in south Florida during the twentieth century. Use of current land surface properties resulted in colder simulated minimum temperatures and temperatures that remained below freezing for a longer period at locations of key agricultural production centers in south Florida that were once natural wetlands. Examination of time series of the surface energy budget from one of the cases reveals that when natural land cover is used, a persistent moisture flux from the underlying wetlands during the nighttime hours served to prevent the development of below-freezing temperatures at those same locations. When the model results were subjected to an important sensitivity factor, the depth of standing water in the wetlands, the outcome remained consistent. These results provide another example of the potential for humans to perturb the climate system in ways that can have severe socioeconomic consequences by altering the land surface alone.
Abstract
On several occasions, winter freezes have wrought severe destruction on Florida agriculture. A series of devastating freezes around the turn of the twentieth century, and again during the 1980s, were related to anomalies in the large-scale flow of the ocean–atmosphere system. During the twentieth century, substantial areas of wetlands in south Florida were drained and converted to agricultural land for winter fresh vegetable and sugarcane production. During this time, much of the citrus industry also was relocated to those areas to escape the risk of freeze farther to the north. The purpose of this paper is to present a modeling study designed to investigate whether the conversion of the wetlands to agriculture itself could have resulted in or exacerbated the severity of recent freezes in those agricultural areas of south Florida.
For three recent freeze events, a pair of simulations was undertaken with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. One member of each pair employed land surface properties that represent pre-1900s (near natural) land cover, whereas the other member of each pair employed data that represent near-current land-use patterns as derived from analysis of Landsat data valid for 1992/93. These two different land cover datasets capture well the conversion of wetlands to agriculture in south Florida during the twentieth century. Use of current land surface properties resulted in colder simulated minimum temperatures and temperatures that remained below freezing for a longer period at locations of key agricultural production centers in south Florida that were once natural wetlands. Examination of time series of the surface energy budget from one of the cases reveals that when natural land cover is used, a persistent moisture flux from the underlying wetlands during the nighttime hours served to prevent the development of below-freezing temperatures at those same locations. When the model results were subjected to an important sensitivity factor, the depth of standing water in the wetlands, the outcome remained consistent. These results provide another example of the potential for humans to perturb the climate system in ways that can have severe socioeconomic consequences by altering the land surface alone.
Abstract
A NOAA/Environmental Technology Laboratory Doppler lidar measured the life cycle of the land- and sea-breeze system at Monterey Bay, California, in 1987, during the Land–Sea Breeze Experiment (LASBEX). On days with offshore synoptic flow, the transition to onshore flow (the sea breeze) was a distinct process easily detected by lidar. Finescale lidar measurements showed the reversal from offshore to onshore flow near the coast, its gradual vertical and horizontal expansion, and a dual structure to the sea-breeze flow in its early formative stages. Initially, a shallow (<500 m) sea breeze formed that later became embedded in a weaker onshore flow that was ∼1 km deep. Eventually these two flows blended together to form a mature sea breeze about 1 km deep.
Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) two-dimensional simulations successfully simulated this dual structure of the sea-breeze flow when both the coastal mountain range just east of Monterey Bay and the Sierra Nevada range, peaking 300 km east of the shore, were included in the domain. Various sensitivity simulations were conducted to isolate the roles played by the land–water contrast, the coastal mountain range, and the Sierra Nevada range. Notable results included the following: 1) the Sierra Nevada range greatly affected the winds above 1500 m at the shore, even though the peak of the mountain range was 300 km east of the shore; 2) the winds at the shore, below 1500 m, were most affected by the land–sea contrast and the coastal mountain range; and 3) the presence of the coastal mountain range enhanced the depth of the sea-breeze flow but not necessarily its speed.
A factor separation method was employed to further isolate the contributions of the terrain and land–water contrast to the vertical structure of the modeled u component of the wind. When both mountains were included in the domain, the interaction of the slope flows generated by these mountains acted to strongly enhance onshore flow early in the morning. In contrast, the interaction of flows generated by the land–water contrast and the sloping terrain had its strongest effect late in the afternoon and early evening, working to oppose the sea-breeze flow. The triple interaction of the flows generated by the coastal mountain, inland mountain, and the land–water contrast enhanced the sea-breeze flow from the surface to 500 m above the sea level throughout the day.
Abstract
A NOAA/Environmental Technology Laboratory Doppler lidar measured the life cycle of the land- and sea-breeze system at Monterey Bay, California, in 1987, during the Land–Sea Breeze Experiment (LASBEX). On days with offshore synoptic flow, the transition to onshore flow (the sea breeze) was a distinct process easily detected by lidar. Finescale lidar measurements showed the reversal from offshore to onshore flow near the coast, its gradual vertical and horizontal expansion, and a dual structure to the sea-breeze flow in its early formative stages. Initially, a shallow (<500 m) sea breeze formed that later became embedded in a weaker onshore flow that was ∼1 km deep. Eventually these two flows blended together to form a mature sea breeze about 1 km deep.
Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) two-dimensional simulations successfully simulated this dual structure of the sea-breeze flow when both the coastal mountain range just east of Monterey Bay and the Sierra Nevada range, peaking 300 km east of the shore, were included in the domain. Various sensitivity simulations were conducted to isolate the roles played by the land–water contrast, the coastal mountain range, and the Sierra Nevada range. Notable results included the following: 1) the Sierra Nevada range greatly affected the winds above 1500 m at the shore, even though the peak of the mountain range was 300 km east of the shore; 2) the winds at the shore, below 1500 m, were most affected by the land–sea contrast and the coastal mountain range; and 3) the presence of the coastal mountain range enhanced the depth of the sea-breeze flow but not necessarily its speed.
A factor separation method was employed to further isolate the contributions of the terrain and land–water contrast to the vertical structure of the modeled u component of the wind. When both mountains were included in the domain, the interaction of the slope flows generated by these mountains acted to strongly enhance onshore flow early in the morning. In contrast, the interaction of flows generated by the land–water contrast and the sloping terrain had its strongest effect late in the afternoon and early evening, working to oppose the sea-breeze flow. The triple interaction of the flows generated by the coastal mountain, inland mountain, and the land–water contrast enhanced the sea-breeze flow from the surface to 500 m above the sea level throughout the day.
Abstract
Fifty-three years of the NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis I are dynamically downscaled using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to generate a regional climate model (RCM) climatology of the contiguous United States and Mexico. Data from the RAMS simulations are compared to the recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), as well as observed precipitation and temperature data. The RAMS simulations show the value added by using a RCM in a process study framework to represent North American summer climate beyond the driving global atmospheric reanalysis. Because of its enhanced representation of the land surface topography, the diurnal cycle of convective rainfall is present. This diurnal cycle largely governs the transitions associated with the evolution of the North American monsoon with regards to rainfall, the surface energy budget, and surface temperature. The lower frequency modes of convective rainfall, though weaker, account for rainfall variability at a remote distance from elevated terrain. As in previous studies with other RCMs, RAMS precipitation is overestimated compared to observations. The Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) is also well represented in both RAMS and NARR, but the Baja LLJ and associated gulf surges are not.
Abstract
Fifty-three years of the NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis I are dynamically downscaled using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to generate a regional climate model (RCM) climatology of the contiguous United States and Mexico. Data from the RAMS simulations are compared to the recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), as well as observed precipitation and temperature data. The RAMS simulations show the value added by using a RCM in a process study framework to represent North American summer climate beyond the driving global atmospheric reanalysis. Because of its enhanced representation of the land surface topography, the diurnal cycle of convective rainfall is present. This diurnal cycle largely governs the transitions associated with the evolution of the North American monsoon with regards to rainfall, the surface energy budget, and surface temperature. The lower frequency modes of convective rainfall, though weaker, account for rainfall variability at a remote distance from elevated terrain. As in previous studies with other RCMs, RAMS precipitation is overestimated compared to observations. The Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) is also well represented in both RAMS and NARR, but the Baja LLJ and associated gulf surges are not.
Abstract
Recent numerical modeling studies indicate the importance of radiation in the transformation from a tropical disturbance to a tropical depression, a process known as tropical cyclogenesis. This paper employs a numerical modeling framework to examine the sensitivity to radiation in idealized simulations for different initial vortex strengths, and in doing so highlights when during tropical cyclogenesis radiation is most important. It is shown that all else being equal, a stronger initial vortex reduces the impact that radiation has on accelerating tropical cyclogenesis. We find that radiation’s primary role is to moisten the core of a disturbance through nocturnal differential radiative forcing between the disturbance and its cloud-free surroundings, and after sufficient moistening occurs over a deep layer and the winds are sufficiently strong at the surface, radiation no longer plays as significant a role in tropical cyclogenesis.
Abstract
Recent numerical modeling studies indicate the importance of radiation in the transformation from a tropical disturbance to a tropical depression, a process known as tropical cyclogenesis. This paper employs a numerical modeling framework to examine the sensitivity to radiation in idealized simulations for different initial vortex strengths, and in doing so highlights when during tropical cyclogenesis radiation is most important. It is shown that all else being equal, a stronger initial vortex reduces the impact that radiation has on accelerating tropical cyclogenesis. We find that radiation’s primary role is to moisten the core of a disturbance through nocturnal differential radiative forcing between the disturbance and its cloud-free surroundings, and after sufficient moistening occurs over a deep layer and the winds are sufficiently strong at the surface, radiation no longer plays as significant a role in tropical cyclogenesis.
