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- Author or Editor: Rosana Nieto Ferreira x
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Abstract
In satellite images the ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone) is sometimes observed to undulate and break down into a series of tropical disturbances. Tropical cyclones may later develop within these disturbances and move into higher latitudes allowing the ITCZ to reform. It has been proposed that ITCZ breakdown results from a convectively modified form of combined barotropic and baroclinic instability of the mean flow. An unstable mean flow can be produced by ITCZ convection in just a couple of days. In this sense, the ITCZ produces favorable conditions for its own instability and breakdown.
In this study, a nonlinear shallow water model on the sphere is used to simulate barotropic aspects of ITCZ breakdown. In the shallow-water model, the ITCZ is simulated by a prescribed zonally elongated mass sink near the equator. The mass sink produces a cyclonic potential vorticity (PV) anomaly that has a reversed meridional PV gradient on its poleward side. According to the Ripa theorem, a flow that has a reversal in its meridional gradient of PV may become unstable in the presence of small disturbances. In the model simulations the unstable PV strip either undulates and breaks down into several cyclones or axisymmetrizes into one large cyclone.
The model results suggest that ITCZ breakdown may play a role in producing the observed tendencies for tropical storms to cluster in time and form poleward of the central latitude of the ITCZ and to the east of existing tropical storms. Additional experiments indicate that the observed higher frequency of tropical cyclogenesis just west of the Central American coast may be due to the horizontal morphology of the ITCZ in that region. In the eastern Pacific, the ITCZ is a zonally elongated line of convection that is climatologically wider on its eastern side. It is proposed that axisymmetrization of the PV strip produced by such an ITCZ is the cause of the increased frequency of tropical cyclogenesis just west of Central America.
Finally, the results obtained in this study point to the importance of zonal asymmetries inherent to the ITCZ in determining the flow evolution, suggesting the need for further studies of this effect. The importance of using forced simulations in the study of flow stability is also discussed.
Abstract
In satellite images the ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone) is sometimes observed to undulate and break down into a series of tropical disturbances. Tropical cyclones may later develop within these disturbances and move into higher latitudes allowing the ITCZ to reform. It has been proposed that ITCZ breakdown results from a convectively modified form of combined barotropic and baroclinic instability of the mean flow. An unstable mean flow can be produced by ITCZ convection in just a couple of days. In this sense, the ITCZ produces favorable conditions for its own instability and breakdown.
In this study, a nonlinear shallow water model on the sphere is used to simulate barotropic aspects of ITCZ breakdown. In the shallow-water model, the ITCZ is simulated by a prescribed zonally elongated mass sink near the equator. The mass sink produces a cyclonic potential vorticity (PV) anomaly that has a reversed meridional PV gradient on its poleward side. According to the Ripa theorem, a flow that has a reversal in its meridional gradient of PV may become unstable in the presence of small disturbances. In the model simulations the unstable PV strip either undulates and breaks down into several cyclones or axisymmetrizes into one large cyclone.
The model results suggest that ITCZ breakdown may play a role in producing the observed tendencies for tropical storms to cluster in time and form poleward of the central latitude of the ITCZ and to the east of existing tropical storms. Additional experiments indicate that the observed higher frequency of tropical cyclogenesis just west of the Central American coast may be due to the horizontal morphology of the ITCZ in that region. In the eastern Pacific, the ITCZ is a zonally elongated line of convection that is climatologically wider on its eastern side. It is proposed that axisymmetrization of the PV strip produced by such an ITCZ is the cause of the increased frequency of tropical cyclogenesis just west of Central America.
Finally, the results obtained in this study point to the importance of zonal asymmetries inherent to the ITCZ in determining the flow evolution, suggesting the need for further studies of this effect. The importance of using forced simulations in the study of flow stability is also discussed.
Abstract
Tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs), also known as midoceanic troughs, are elongated troughs that appear in summer monthly averaged maps of the upper-tropospheric flow over the oceans. The transient part of these climatological features is composed of TUTT cells and their origin is the subject of this study.
TUTT cells often occur to the east of tropical cyclones. A nonlinear shallow water model on the sphere was used in a simplified study of the interactions between tropical cyclones and the circumpolar vortex. Based on the results of these simulations and keeping in mind their limitations, it is proposed that dispersion of short Rossby wave energy is a possible mechanism to explain the formation of TUTT cells to the east of tropical cyclones. The model simulations suggest that two types of TUTT cells may form to the east of tropical cyclones. When embedded in cyclonic or weak anticyclonic shear, the trough to the east of the tropical cyclone may broaden, resulting in the formation of an intense TUTT cell that has a strong signature in the wind and mass fields. In the presence of stronger anticyclonic shear, the trough to the east of the tropical cyclone may become a thin and elongated TUTT cell that has a comparatively negligible signature in the mass and flow fields. Moreover, the model simulations indicate that the mode of evolution of TUTT cells that form to the east of a tropical cyclone is strongly dependent on the intensity and relative location of midlatitude waves.
Wave–mean flow interaction calculations indicated that tropical cyclones produced a westerly acceleration of the mean zonal flow in the latitudinal band through which they move and an easterly acceleration elsewhere. These calculations also indicated that broadening TUTT cells may cause an easterly acceleration of the zonal mean flow.
Abstract
Tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs), also known as midoceanic troughs, are elongated troughs that appear in summer monthly averaged maps of the upper-tropospheric flow over the oceans. The transient part of these climatological features is composed of TUTT cells and their origin is the subject of this study.
TUTT cells often occur to the east of tropical cyclones. A nonlinear shallow water model on the sphere was used in a simplified study of the interactions between tropical cyclones and the circumpolar vortex. Based on the results of these simulations and keeping in mind their limitations, it is proposed that dispersion of short Rossby wave energy is a possible mechanism to explain the formation of TUTT cells to the east of tropical cyclones. The model simulations suggest that two types of TUTT cells may form to the east of tropical cyclones. When embedded in cyclonic or weak anticyclonic shear, the trough to the east of the tropical cyclone may broaden, resulting in the formation of an intense TUTT cell that has a strong signature in the wind and mass fields. In the presence of stronger anticyclonic shear, the trough to the east of the tropical cyclone may become a thin and elongated TUTT cell that has a comparatively negligible signature in the mass and flow fields. Moreover, the model simulations indicate that the mode of evolution of TUTT cells that form to the east of a tropical cyclone is strongly dependent on the intensity and relative location of midlatitude waves.
Wave–mean flow interaction calculations indicated that tropical cyclones produced a westerly acceleration of the mean zonal flow in the latitudinal band through which they move and an easterly acceleration elsewhere. These calculations also indicated that broadening TUTT cells may cause an easterly acceleration of the zonal mean flow.
Abstract
A nonlinear shallow-water model on the sphere is used to study barotropic aspects of the formation of twin tropical disturbances by Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) convection.
In the model, the effect of MJO convection upon the lower-tropospheric tropical circulation was simulated by an eastward moving, meridionally elongated mass sink straddling the equator. The intensity and propagation speed of the mass sink were chosen to simulate observations that MJO convection intensifies while nearly stationary in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, weakens while moving eastward over the Maritime Continent, again intensifies once it reaches the west Pacific Ocean, and finally becomes stationary and dies off near the date line. This mass sink produced twin cyclones in the two regions where it was stationary, namely, where it was initially turned on and where it was turned off. In addition, the mass sink produced two zonally elongated cyclonic potential vorticity anomalies straddling the equator in the region where it propagated eastward.
It is proposed that MJO convection produces twin tropical disturbances in the two regions where it is nearly stationary, namely, its region of formation in the eastern Indian Ocean and its region of decay near the date line. Additional tropical disturbances may arise from the breakdown of the elongated shear regions produced by the eastward propagating MJO convection.
In addition, a series of initial value experiments was performed to determine the conditions under which twin cyclones become so strongly coupled that they propagate directly eastward as a cyclone pair. Apparently, such movement requires the cyclones to be so close together that the situation rarely, if ever, occurs in nature.
Abstract
A nonlinear shallow-water model on the sphere is used to study barotropic aspects of the formation of twin tropical disturbances by Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) convection.
In the model, the effect of MJO convection upon the lower-tropospheric tropical circulation was simulated by an eastward moving, meridionally elongated mass sink straddling the equator. The intensity and propagation speed of the mass sink were chosen to simulate observations that MJO convection intensifies while nearly stationary in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, weakens while moving eastward over the Maritime Continent, again intensifies once it reaches the west Pacific Ocean, and finally becomes stationary and dies off near the date line. This mass sink produced twin cyclones in the two regions where it was stationary, namely, where it was initially turned on and where it was turned off. In addition, the mass sink produced two zonally elongated cyclonic potential vorticity anomalies straddling the equator in the region where it propagated eastward.
It is proposed that MJO convection produces twin tropical disturbances in the two regions where it is nearly stationary, namely, its region of formation in the eastern Indian Ocean and its region of decay near the date line. Additional tropical disturbances may arise from the breakdown of the elongated shear regions produced by the eastward propagating MJO convection.
In addition, a series of initial value experiments was performed to determine the conditions under which twin cyclones become so strongly coupled that they propagate directly eastward as a cyclone pair. Apparently, such movement requires the cyclones to be so close together that the situation rarely, if ever, occurs in nature.
Abstract
This study examines the geographic and temporal characteristics of the springtime transition to the summer precipitation regime of isolated convection in the southeastern (SE) United States during 2009–12, using a high-resolution surface radar-based precipitation dataset. Isolated convection refers herein to isolated elements or small clusters of precipitation in radar imagery less than 100 km in horizontal dimension. Though the SE United States does not have a monsoon climate, it is useful to apply the established framework of monsoon onset to study the timing and regional variation of the onset of the summer isolated convection regime. Overall, isolated convection rain onset in the SE U.S. domain occurs in late May. Onset begins in south Florida in mid-April, continuing nearly simultaneously across the southeastern coastal plain in early to mid-May. In the northern domain, from Virginia to the Ohio Valley, onset generally occurs much later (mid-June to early July) with more variable onset timing. The sharpness of onset timing is most evident in the coastal plain and Florida. Results suggest the hypothesis, to be examined in a forthcoming study, that the timing of isolated convection onset in the spring may be triggered by specific synoptic-scale events within gradual seasonal changes in atmospheric conditions including extratropical cyclone tracks, convective instability, and the westward migration of the North Atlantic subtropical high. This approach may offer a useful framework for evaluating long-term changes in precipitation for subtropical regimes in an observational and modeling context.
Abstract
This study examines the geographic and temporal characteristics of the springtime transition to the summer precipitation regime of isolated convection in the southeastern (SE) United States during 2009–12, using a high-resolution surface radar-based precipitation dataset. Isolated convection refers herein to isolated elements or small clusters of precipitation in radar imagery less than 100 km in horizontal dimension. Though the SE United States does not have a monsoon climate, it is useful to apply the established framework of monsoon onset to study the timing and regional variation of the onset of the summer isolated convection regime. Overall, isolated convection rain onset in the SE U.S. domain occurs in late May. Onset begins in south Florida in mid-April, continuing nearly simultaneously across the southeastern coastal plain in early to mid-May. In the northern domain, from Virginia to the Ohio Valley, onset generally occurs much later (mid-June to early July) with more variable onset timing. The sharpness of onset timing is most evident in the coastal plain and Florida. Results suggest the hypothesis, to be examined in a forthcoming study, that the timing of isolated convection onset in the spring may be triggered by specific synoptic-scale events within gradual seasonal changes in atmospheric conditions including extratropical cyclone tracks, convective instability, and the westward migration of the North Atlantic subtropical high. This approach may offer a useful framework for evaluating long-term changes in precipitation for subtropical regimes in an observational and modeling context.
Abstract
A radar-based analysis of the structure, motion, and rainfall variability of westward-propagating squall-line mesoscale convective systems (SLMCSs) in Niamey, Niger, during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Activities (AMMA) 2006 special observing period is combined with an analysis of 700-mb (hPa) winds and relative vorticity to study the relationship between SLMCSs and African easterly waves (AEWs). Radar results show that SLMCSs were the most important rainmakers in Niamey and accounted for about 90% of the rainfall despite being present less than 17% of the time. Analysis of the 700-mb synoptic-scale flow revealed that during the 2006 West African monsoon season the African easterly jet vacillated between about 10° and 15°N on time scales of 1–2 weeks. AEWs followed the jet as it vacillated north and south, thereby producing two preferred paths for AEWs propagating past Niamey’s longitude, a northern track along 8°–16°N and a southern track along 2°–6°N. It was found that Niamey SLMCSs occurred westward of the trough of AEWs propagating along either track. The properties of SLMCSs must then be placed in the context of their location relative to these two AEW tracks, rather than in the trough and ridge pattern of a single AEW track. Radar analysis further indicated that although the total amounts of rainfall produced by SLMCSs occurring in both African easterly jet latitude regimes were similar, significant structural differences occurred between the two groups of systems. SLMCSs that formed to the west of AEW troughs propagating along the northern track had a significantly larger mean stratiform rain fraction in an environment of lower convective available potential energy when compared with the SLMCSs that occurred to the west of the troughs of AEWs in the southern track. The authors conclude that AEWs that propagated farther north provided a more favorable environment for stratiform rain production in Niamey SLMCSs than those AEWs located farther south. These results may be helpful to studies of the two-way interaction between AEWs and convection in West Africa.
Abstract
A radar-based analysis of the structure, motion, and rainfall variability of westward-propagating squall-line mesoscale convective systems (SLMCSs) in Niamey, Niger, during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Activities (AMMA) 2006 special observing period is combined with an analysis of 700-mb (hPa) winds and relative vorticity to study the relationship between SLMCSs and African easterly waves (AEWs). Radar results show that SLMCSs were the most important rainmakers in Niamey and accounted for about 90% of the rainfall despite being present less than 17% of the time. Analysis of the 700-mb synoptic-scale flow revealed that during the 2006 West African monsoon season the African easterly jet vacillated between about 10° and 15°N on time scales of 1–2 weeks. AEWs followed the jet as it vacillated north and south, thereby producing two preferred paths for AEWs propagating past Niamey’s longitude, a northern track along 8°–16°N and a southern track along 2°–6°N. It was found that Niamey SLMCSs occurred westward of the trough of AEWs propagating along either track. The properties of SLMCSs must then be placed in the context of their location relative to these two AEW tracks, rather than in the trough and ridge pattern of a single AEW track. Radar analysis further indicated that although the total amounts of rainfall produced by SLMCSs occurring in both African easterly jet latitude regimes were similar, significant structural differences occurred between the two groups of systems. SLMCSs that formed to the west of AEW troughs propagating along the northern track had a significantly larger mean stratiform rain fraction in an environment of lower convective available potential energy when compared with the SLMCSs that occurred to the west of the troughs of AEWs in the southern track. The authors conclude that AEWs that propagated farther north provided a more favorable environment for stratiform rain production in Niamey SLMCSs than those AEWs located farther south. These results may be helpful to studies of the two-way interaction between AEWs and convection in West Africa.
Abstract
The seasonal and interannual variability of the structure, evolution, and propagation of midlatitude cyclones in the southeast United States are studied using a composite analysis. In the upper levels, the composites show that the axis of the wintertime upper-level trough remains north–south oriented and propagates eastward along 40°N, while the summertime upper-level trough has a much slower propagation at a farther north latitude and an axis that is tilted in the northeast–southwest direction. Upper-level circulation changes are consistent with a shift from wintertime “cyclonic behavior” to summertime “anticyclonic behavior” midlatitude cyclones. Significant changes in the low-level structure and precipitation patterns of midlatitude cyclones ensue from these upper-level changes. While the winter composite is characterized by eastward-propagating midlatitude cyclones that extend deep into the subtropics, the summer composite is characterized by semistationary midlatitude troughs that only briefly skirt the subtropics. Wintertime precipitation occurs only in and ahead of the surface low pressure center, whereas summertime precipitation occurs in all days of the composite. As a result, over 70% (30%) of wintertime (summertime) precipitation in the Carolinas occurs on days when midlatitude cyclones are present. The wintertime composites also show that midlatitude cyclones produce more precipitation on the windward side of the Appalachians than over the Carolinas, suggesting a rain shadow effect of the mountains.
The ENSO-related variability of the structure, evolution, and propagation of midlatitude cyclones shows the presence of a more intense and southward-displaced upper-level jet, stronger midlatitude cyclones, and more intense precipitation over a larger area during El Niño than La Niña or normal years.
Abstract
The seasonal and interannual variability of the structure, evolution, and propagation of midlatitude cyclones in the southeast United States are studied using a composite analysis. In the upper levels, the composites show that the axis of the wintertime upper-level trough remains north–south oriented and propagates eastward along 40°N, while the summertime upper-level trough has a much slower propagation at a farther north latitude and an axis that is tilted in the northeast–southwest direction. Upper-level circulation changes are consistent with a shift from wintertime “cyclonic behavior” to summertime “anticyclonic behavior” midlatitude cyclones. Significant changes in the low-level structure and precipitation patterns of midlatitude cyclones ensue from these upper-level changes. While the winter composite is characterized by eastward-propagating midlatitude cyclones that extend deep into the subtropics, the summer composite is characterized by semistationary midlatitude troughs that only briefly skirt the subtropics. Wintertime precipitation occurs only in and ahead of the surface low pressure center, whereas summertime precipitation occurs in all days of the composite. As a result, over 70% (30%) of wintertime (summertime) precipitation in the Carolinas occurs on days when midlatitude cyclones are present. The wintertime composites also show that midlatitude cyclones produce more precipitation on the windward side of the Appalachians than over the Carolinas, suggesting a rain shadow effect of the mountains.
The ENSO-related variability of the structure, evolution, and propagation of midlatitude cyclones shows the presence of a more intense and southward-displaced upper-level jet, stronger midlatitude cyclones, and more intense precipitation over a larger area during El Niño than La Niña or normal years.
A novel multinational course on global climate change was developed by East Carolina University in collaboration with five international universities and the U.S. Department of State. This course was developed to help foster the global conversation needed for developing successful solutions to some of the challenges posed to society by climate change. Using web conferencing technology, students from East Carolina University, Faculdade Jaguariúna in Brazil, Shadong University in China, University of Jammu in India, Universidad Regiomontana in Mexico, and Lomonosov Moscow State University in Russia met 2 or 3 times per week in the Global Classroom to learn about climate change science, mitigation and adaptation strategies, and domestic and international climate policy issues. In addition to learning about climate change, students worked in teams composed of members from each country to create locally implementable strategies for climate change mitigation and/or adaptation. Toward this end, students learned and were challenged to apply important cross-cultural negotiation and project building skills necessary to achieve consensus and ensure effective communication and team function. This article presents the course design, including content and the use of technology, as well as a discussion of the challenges and rewards associated with getting people from five countries together in a common pursuit of knowledge and consensus.
A novel multinational course on global climate change was developed by East Carolina University in collaboration with five international universities and the U.S. Department of State. This course was developed to help foster the global conversation needed for developing successful solutions to some of the challenges posed to society by climate change. Using web conferencing technology, students from East Carolina University, Faculdade Jaguariúna in Brazil, Shadong University in China, University of Jammu in India, Universidad Regiomontana in Mexico, and Lomonosov Moscow State University in Russia met 2 or 3 times per week in the Global Classroom to learn about climate change science, mitigation and adaptation strategies, and domestic and international climate policy issues. In addition to learning about climate change, students worked in teams composed of members from each country to create locally implementable strategies for climate change mitigation and/or adaptation. Toward this end, students learned and were challenged to apply important cross-cultural negotiation and project building skills necessary to achieve consensus and ensure effective communication and team function. This article presents the course design, including content and the use of technology, as well as a discussion of the challenges and rewards associated with getting people from five countries together in a common pursuit of knowledge and consensus.
Abstract
A comparison of the submonthly variability of atmospheric circulation and organization of convection in South America during January–February–March of 1998 (JFM98) and January–February–March of 1999 (JFM99) is presented. According to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis, the South American low-level jet (SALLJ) was about twice as strong during JFM of the 1998 El Niño episode than during JFM of the 1999 La Niña episode. The difference in SALLJ strength between these two years translated into stronger transport of moist tropical air into the subtropics during JFM98 than during JFM99. An objective tracking technique was used to identify large, long-lived convective cloud systems in infrared imagery. The stronger SALLJ was accompanied by larger and more numerous long-lived convective cloud systems and nearly twice as much rainfall in subtropical South America (parts of southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina) during JFM98 than during JFM99.
The difference between JFM98 and JFM99 SALLJ strength in Bolivia is in part explained by submonthly variability associated with the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ). Periods when the SACZ is present are marked by southerly or weak northerly winds in Bolivia. The South Atlantic convergence zone was more prominent during JFM99 than during JFM98 contributing to a weaker SALLJ during JFM99. Large, long-lived convective cloud systems in subtropical South America tended to occur during times when the SACZ was absent and the SALLJ was strong over Bolivia. Interannual variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation also contributed to the observed interannual variability of the SALLJ in Bolivia.
In the tropical portions of South America nearly 6 times more large, long-lived convective cloud systems were observed during JFM99 than during JFM98. This was accompanied by more plentiful precipitation in portions of the Amazon basin and in the Bolivian Altiplano during JFM99 than during JFM98. Interannual variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation was an important contributor to the observed convective cloud system and precipitation differences in tropical South America.
Abstract
A comparison of the submonthly variability of atmospheric circulation and organization of convection in South America during January–February–March of 1998 (JFM98) and January–February–March of 1999 (JFM99) is presented. According to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis, the South American low-level jet (SALLJ) was about twice as strong during JFM of the 1998 El Niño episode than during JFM of the 1999 La Niña episode. The difference in SALLJ strength between these two years translated into stronger transport of moist tropical air into the subtropics during JFM98 than during JFM99. An objective tracking technique was used to identify large, long-lived convective cloud systems in infrared imagery. The stronger SALLJ was accompanied by larger and more numerous long-lived convective cloud systems and nearly twice as much rainfall in subtropical South America (parts of southern Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina) during JFM98 than during JFM99.
The difference between JFM98 and JFM99 SALLJ strength in Bolivia is in part explained by submonthly variability associated with the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ). Periods when the SACZ is present are marked by southerly or weak northerly winds in Bolivia. The South Atlantic convergence zone was more prominent during JFM99 than during JFM98 contributing to a weaker SALLJ during JFM99. Large, long-lived convective cloud systems in subtropical South America tended to occur during times when the SACZ was absent and the SALLJ was strong over Bolivia. Interannual variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation also contributed to the observed interannual variability of the SALLJ in Bolivia.
In the tropical portions of South America nearly 6 times more large, long-lived convective cloud systems were observed during JFM99 than during JFM98. This was accompanied by more plentiful precipitation in portions of the Amazon basin and in the Bolivian Altiplano during JFM99 than during JFM98. Interannual variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation was an important contributor to the observed convective cloud system and precipitation differences in tropical South America.
Abstract
In this study, a 10-yr (1998–2007) climatology of observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite is used to study regional mechanisms of monsoon onset across tropical and subtropical South America. The approach is to contrast regional differences in the structure, intensity, and rainfall of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) prior to and after onset, in the context of thermodynamic conditions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. This is accomplished by analyzing the mean annual cycle time series, 10-yr frequency histograms, and 3-month-averaged values prior to and following onset in four regions of distinct rainfall variability. Observed MCS metrics and NCEP variables include lightning flash rate, convective rain fraction, height of the 30-dBZ isosurface, minimum 85-GHz polarization corrected temperature, and the fluxes of sensible and latent heat.
The west-central Amazon region had a distinct maximum of MCS intensity 2 months prior to the monsoon onset date of each region, which was well correlated with surface sensible heat flux, despite the observation that thermodynamic instability was greatest after onset. At the mouth of the Amazon, the dry season rainfall minimum, the premonsoon maximum in MCS intensity metrics, and monsoon onset were all delayed by 2–3 months relative to the west-central Amazon. This delay in the annual cycle and comparatively large difference in pre- versus postonset MCSs, combined with previous work, suggest that the slow migration of the Atlantic Ocean intertropical convergence zone controls onset characteristics at the mouth of the Amazon. All metrics of convective intensity in the tropical regions decreased significantly following onset. These results, in the context of previous studies, are consistent with the hypothesis that thermodynamic, land surface, and aerosol controls on MCS intensity operate in concert with each other to control the evolution of precipitation system structure from the dry season to the wet season. The other two regions [the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and the south], associated with the well-documented dipole of intraseasonal rain variability, have a weaker and more variable annual cycle of all MCS metrics. This is likely related to the strong influence of baroclinic circulations and frontal systems in those regions. In the south, fewer but larger and more electrified MCSs prior to onset transition to more, smaller, and less electrified MCSs after onset, consistent with previous climatologies of strong springtime mesoscale convective complexes in that region.
Abstract
In this study, a 10-yr (1998–2007) climatology of observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite is used to study regional mechanisms of monsoon onset across tropical and subtropical South America. The approach is to contrast regional differences in the structure, intensity, and rainfall of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) prior to and after onset, in the context of thermodynamic conditions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. This is accomplished by analyzing the mean annual cycle time series, 10-yr frequency histograms, and 3-month-averaged values prior to and following onset in four regions of distinct rainfall variability. Observed MCS metrics and NCEP variables include lightning flash rate, convective rain fraction, height of the 30-dBZ isosurface, minimum 85-GHz polarization corrected temperature, and the fluxes of sensible and latent heat.
The west-central Amazon region had a distinct maximum of MCS intensity 2 months prior to the monsoon onset date of each region, which was well correlated with surface sensible heat flux, despite the observation that thermodynamic instability was greatest after onset. At the mouth of the Amazon, the dry season rainfall minimum, the premonsoon maximum in MCS intensity metrics, and monsoon onset were all delayed by 2–3 months relative to the west-central Amazon. This delay in the annual cycle and comparatively large difference in pre- versus postonset MCSs, combined with previous work, suggest that the slow migration of the Atlantic Ocean intertropical convergence zone controls onset characteristics at the mouth of the Amazon. All metrics of convective intensity in the tropical regions decreased significantly following onset. These results, in the context of previous studies, are consistent with the hypothesis that thermodynamic, land surface, and aerosol controls on MCS intensity operate in concert with each other to control the evolution of precipitation system structure from the dry season to the wet season. The other two regions [the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and the south], associated with the well-documented dipole of intraseasonal rain variability, have a weaker and more variable annual cycle of all MCS metrics. This is likely related to the strong influence of baroclinic circulations and frontal systems in those regions. In the south, fewer but larger and more electrified MCSs prior to onset transition to more, smaller, and less electrified MCSs after onset, consistent with previous climatologies of strong springtime mesoscale convective complexes in that region.
