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J. Y. Wang and S. C. Wang

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Kingtse C. Mo, X. L. Wang, and M. S. Tracton

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The impact of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on predictions in the extratropics has been studied by comparing circulation changes in general circulation model experiments generated with observed and climatological sea surface temperatures for warm and cold Southern Oscillation events. The small samples may be insufficient for drawing firm conclusions, but results suggest that the linkage between tropical and extratropical circulations in the model resembles observed relationships.

As the atmosphere responds to the warm (cold) tropical SSTs, the convection in the Pacific intensifies (diminishes). The enhanced (suppressed) convection in the tropics enhances (suppresses) the local Hadley circulation and changes the position and strength of the divergent outflow. This in turn changes the position, shape, and strength of the upper-level subtropical jet streams. After the jets move to their new positions, synoptic eddies organize themselves at the exit regions of the jets.

The response time for the upper-level streamfunction in the tropics is about 10 days, but the changes in the position of the subtropical jets occur after 15–20 days. The largest impact on predictions is located in the tropics and downstream in the Pacific-North America and the Pacific-South America regions.

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Jeffrey C. Rogers, Sheng-Hung Wang, and Jill S. M. Coleman

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A 124 (1882–2005) summer record of total surface energy content consisting of time series of surface equivalent temperature (TE) and its components T (mean air temperature) and Lq/cp (moist enthalpy, denoted Lq) is developed, quality controlled, and analyzed for Columbus, Ohio, where long records of monthly dewpoint temperature are available. The analysis shows that the highest TE occurs during the summer of 1995 when both T and Lq were very high, associated with a severe midwestern heat wave. That year contrasts with the hot summers of 1930–36, when Lq and TE had relatively low or negative anomalies (low humidity) compared to those of T. Following the 1930–36 summers, T and Lq departures are much more typically the same sign in individual summers, and the two parameters develop a statistically significant high positive correlation into the twenty-first century. Mean T and Lq departures from the long-term normal have opposite signs, however, when summers are stratified either by seasonal total rainfall amounts or by the Palmer drought severity soil moisture index. Normalized trends of T, Lq, and TE are downward from 1940 to 1964 with those of TE exceeding T. Since 1965, however, significant positive T trends slightly exceed TE in magnitude and those of dewpoint temperature and Lq are comparatively lower. A highly significant upward trend in minimum temperatures especially dominates the T variability, creating a significant downward trend in the temperature range that dominates recent summer climate variability more than moisture trends. Regional moisture flux variations are largest away from Columbus, over the upper Midwest and western Atlantic Ocean, during its seasonal extremes in total surface energy.

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J. M. Toole, R. C. Millard, Z. Wang, and S. Pu

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Hydrographic surveys were conducted off the Philippine coast in September 1987 and April 1988 as part of the United States/People's Republic of China cooperative research program. These cruises sampled the western Pacific Ocean where the North Equatorial Current (NEC) meets the western boundary and divides into the Kuroshio and Mindanao Currents. The requirement for mass conservation within a region enclosed by stations is utilized here to obtain absolute circulation fields for the two surveys. In both realizations, the surface flow of the NEC was observed to bifurcate near latitude 13°N; NEC flow poleward of this latitude turned north as the Kuroshio while flow to the south fed the Mindanao Current. Most striking was a twofold increase in the strength of the current system in spring 1988 as compared with fall 1987. We note that the observations in fall 1987 were obtained during the height of the 1986/87 El Niño, while those in spring 1988 were during a cold phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. It is not clear how the observed current changes relate to the evolution of this event. The potential vorticity (Q) distributions of the surface waters were examined to explore the dynamics of the bifurcation. Within the NEC, Q was nearly constant (layer thickness change balanced meridional planetary vorticity variation). Within the Kuroshio and Mindanao currents, near constant Q (with magnitude comparable to that in the NEC) was also found with a balance between relative vorticity variation and layer depth change as would be expected for inertia] boundary currents.

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S-K. Lee, D. B. Enfield, and C. Wang

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The annual heat budget of the Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) is explored using the output of an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) simulation. According to the analysis, the WHWP cannot be considered as a monolithic whole with a single set of dominating processes that explain its behavior. The three regions considered, namely the eastern north Pacific (ENP), the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), and the Caribbean Sea (CBN), are each unique in terms of the atmospheric and oceanic processes that dominate the corresponding heat budgets. In the ENP region, clear-sky shortwave radiation flux is responsible for the growth of the warm pool in boreal spring, while increased cloud cover in boreal summer and associated reduction in solar radiation play a crucial role for the ENP warm pool’s demise. Ocean upwelling in the Costa Rica Dome connected to surrounding areas by horizontal advection offers a persistent yearlong cooling mechanism. Over the Atlantic, the clear-sky radiation flux that increases monotonically from December to May and decreases later is largely responsible for the onset and decay of the Atlantic-side warm pool in boreal summer and fall. The CBN region is affected by upwelling and horizontal advective cooling within and away from the coastal upwelling zone off northern South America during the onset and peak phases, thus slowing down the warm pool’s development, but no evidence was found that advective heat flux divergence is important in the GoM region. Turbulent mixing is also an important cooling mechanism in the annual cycle of the WHWP, and the vertical shear at the warm pool base helps to sustain the turbulent mixing. Common to all three WHWP regions is the reduction of wind speed at the peak phase, suggestive of a convection–evaporation feedback known to be important in the Indo-Pacific warm pool dynamics.

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H. Wang, R. J. Barthelmie, A. Clifton, and S. C. Pryor

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Defining optimal scanning geometries for scanning lidars for wind energy applications remains an active field of research. This paper evaluates uncertainties associated with arc scan geometries and presents recommendations regarding optimal configurations in the atmospheric boundary layer. The analysis is based on arc scan data from a Doppler wind lidar with one elevation angle and seven azimuth angles spanning 30° and focuses on an estimation of 10-min mean wind speed and direction. When flow is horizontally uniform, this approach can provide accurate wind measurements required for wind resource assessments in part because of its high resampling rate. Retrieved wind velocities at a single range gate exhibit good correlation to data from a sonic anemometer on a nearby meteorological tower, and vertical profiles of horizontal wind speed, though derived from range gates located on a conical surface, match those measured by mast-mounted cup anemometers. Uncertainties in the retrieved wind velocity are related to high turbulent wind fluctuation and an inhomogeneous horizontal wind field. The radial velocity variance is found to be a robust measure of the uncertainty of the retrieved wind speed because of its relationship to turbulence properties. It is further shown that the standard error of wind speed estimates can be minimized by increasing the azimuthal range beyond 30° and using five to seven azimuth angles.

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R. A. Hansell, S. C. Tsay, Q. Ji, N. C. Hsu, M. J. Jeong, S. H. Wang, J. S. Reid, K. N. Liou, and S. C. Ou

Abstract

In September 2006, NASA Goddard’s mobile ground-based laboratories were deployed to Sal Island in Cape Verde (16.73°N, 22.93°W) to support the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (NAMMA) field study. The Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), a key instrument for spectrally characterizing the thermal IR, was used to retrieve the dust IR aerosol optical depths (AOTs) in order to examine the diurnal variability of airborne dust with emphasis on three separate dust events. AERI retrievals of dust AOT are compared with those from the coincident/collocated multifilter rotating shadowband radiometer (MFRSR), micropulse lidar (MPL), and NASA Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) sensors. The retrieved AOTs are then inputted into the Fu–Liou 1D radiative transfer model to evaluate local instantaneous direct longwave radiative effects (DRELW) of dust at the surface in cloud-free atmospheres and its sensitivity to dust microphysical parameters. The top-of-atmosphere DRELW and longwave heating rate profiles are also evaluated. Instantaneous surface DRELW ranges from 2 to 10 W m−2 and exhibits a strong linear dependence with dust AOT yielding a DRELW of 16 W m−2 per unit dust AOT. The DRELW is estimated to be ∼42% of the diurnally averaged direct shortwave radiative effect at the surface but of opposite sign, partly compensating for the shortwave losses. Certainly nonnegligible, the authors conclude that DRELW can significantly impact the atmospheric energetics, representing an important component in the study of regional climate variation.

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D. Wang, C. Prigent, L. Kilic, S. Fox, C. Harlow, C. Jimenez, F. Aires, C. Grassotti, and F. Karbou

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The Tool to Estimate Land Surface Emissivity from Microwave to Submillimeter Waves (TELSEM2) is linked to a climatology of monthly emissivity estimates and provides a parameterization of the surface emissivity up to 700 GHz, in the framework of the preparation for the Ice Cloud Imager (ICI) on board the Meteorological Operational Satellite Second Generation (MetOp-SG). It is an updated version of the Tool to Estimate Land Surface Emissivities at Microwave Frequencies (TELSEM; ). This study presents the parameterization of continental snow and ice and sea ice emissivities in TELSEM2. It relies upon satellite-derived emissivities up to 200 GHz, and it is anchored to the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) TELSEM monthly climatology dataset (19–85 GHz). Emissivities from Météo-France and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) at frequencies up to 190 GHz were used, calculated from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B (AMSU-B) observations. TELSEM2 has been evaluated up to 325 GHz with the observations of the International Submillimeter Airborne Radiometer (ISMAR) and the Microwave Airborne Radiometer Scanning System (MARSS), which were operated on board the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) aircraft during the Cold-Air Outbreak and Submillimeter Ice Cloud Study (COSMICS) campaign over Greenland. Above continental snow and ice, TELSEM2 is very consistent with the aircraft estimates in spatially homogeneous regions, especially at 89 and 157 GHz. Over sea ice, the aircraft estimates are very variable spatially and temporally, and the comparisons with the TELSEM2 were not conclusive. TELSEM2 will be distributed in the new version of the RTTOV radiative transfer community code, to be available in 2017.

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L. Peng, S.-T. Wang, S.-L. Shieh, M.-D. Cheng, and T.-C. Yeh

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Surface tracks of some cross-Taiwan tropical cyclones were discontinuous as a result of the blockage of the north-northeast–south-southwest-oriented Central Mountain Range (CMR). This paper tries to identify the variables that may be used to diagnose track continuity in advance. The track records of 131 westbound cross-Taiwan tropical cyclones between 1897 and 2009 are examined. It is found that the track continuity of a westbound cross-Taiwan tropical cyclone depends mostly upon the landfall location (YLF), the approaching direction (ANG), and the maximum wind (VMX) of the cyclone. According to the empirical probability of track continuity estimated from the data, the dependence on YLF, which is nonlinear and remarkably asymmetric with respect to the midpoint of the east coast, may be well approximated by a quadratic function of YLF. The nonlinearity and asymmetry can be interpreted in terms of the length scale of the CMR and the north–south antisymmetry of the cyclonic flow. The estimated dependence of track continuity on cyclone intensity and size may be approximated by a linear function of VMX. The estimated dependence of track continuity on ANG may be approximated by a single term of the modified variable DIR (=|ANG − 110|, where 110 is the direction, in degrees, perpendicular to the CMR’s long axis).

Using the 64 tracks between 1944 and 1996 as the training sample, a logistic regression equation model, built in terms of YLF, YLF square, DIR, and VMX gives an overall accuracy score of 89%. As to the probability estimates of individual tracks, 49 of the 64 tracks have estimated probabilities outside the (0.5 − 0.127, 0.5 + 0.127) RMS error range and are correctly classified. A prediction test using another set of 67 tracks not included in the model-training sample, scores a success rate of 82%. As to the probability predictions for individual tracks, 49 of the 67 tracks have predicted probabilities outside the RMS error range and are correctly predicted. These results confirm the appropriateness of the model and moreover demonstrate that the three parameters, YLF, DIR, and VMX, primarily control the surface track continuity of a westbound tropical cyclone crossing Taiwan.

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R. Cifelli, V. Chandrasekar, S. Lim, P. C. Kennedy, Y. Wang, and S. A. Rutledge

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The efficacy of dual-polarization radar for quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) has been demonstrated in a number of previous studies. Specifically, rainfall retrievals using combinations of reflectivity (Z h), differential reflectivity (Z dr), and specific differential phase (K dp) have advantages over traditional ZR methods because more information about the drop size distribution (DSD) and hydrometeor type are available. In addition, dual-polarization-based rain-rate estimators can better account for the presence of ice in the sampling volume.

An important issue in dual-polarization rainfall estimation is determining which method to employ for a given set of polarimetric observables. For example, under what circumstances does differential phase information provide superior rain estimates relative to methods using reflectivity and differential reflectivity? At Colorado State University (CSU), an optimization algorithm has been developed and used for a number of years to estimate rainfall based on thresholds of Z h, Z dr, and K dp. Although the algorithm has demonstrated robust performance in both tropical and midlatitude environments, results have shown that the retrieval is sensitive to the selection of the fixed thresholds.

In this study, a new rainfall algorithm is developed using hydrometeor identification (HID) to guide the choice of the particular rainfall estimation algorithm. A separate HID algorithm has been developed primarily to guide the rainfall application with the hydrometeor classes, namely, all rain, mixed precipitation, and all ice.

Both the data collected from the S-band Colorado State University–University of Chicago–Illinois State Water Survey (CSU–CHILL) radar and a network of rain gauges are used to evaluate the performance of the new algorithm in mixed rain and hail in Colorado. The evaluation is also performed using an algorithm similar to the one developed for the Joint Polarization Experiment (JPOLE). Results show that the new CSU HID-based algorithm provides good performance for the Colorado case studies presented here.

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