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J. M. Rosen, D. J. Hofmann, and S. P. Singh

Abstract

This paper deals with the development of a one-dimensional steady-state stratospheric aerosol model and the subsequent perturbations caused by including the expected space shuttle particulate effluents in the model. Two approaches to the basic modeling effort have been made: in one, enough simplifying assumptions were introduced so that a more or less exact solution to the descriptive equations could be obtained; in the other, very few simplifications were made and a computer technique was used to solve the equations. The most complete form of the model contains the effects of sedimentation, diffusion, particle growth and coagulation. The results indicate that the model is capable of describing many aspects of the stratospheric aerosol layer, such as size distribution and the vertical profile of particles >0.3 μm diameter.

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Maithili Sharan, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, R. T. McNider, and M. P. Singh

Abstract

A three-dimensional mesoscale model was used to understand the meteorological conditions and the influence of the terrain on the local flow pattern during the Bhopal methyl isocyanate (MIC) gas leak. The study reveals that under the prevailing conditions of weak wind and strong stability the lakes in Bhopal influenced the local circulation significantly and caused northwesterly flow near the surface. The modified flow pattern resulted in the transport of MIC into the city area of Bhopal. However, with the increase in the ambient synoptic wind, the role of the lakes was found to diminish. Further, the other topographical features such as the hillocks in and around the city and the gently rolling terrain toward the southeastern sector of the city seem to have played a secondary role in influencing the meteorological conditions on the episodic night.

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S. G. Gopalakrishnan, Maithili Sharan, R. T. McNider, and M. P. Singh

Abstract

The role of radiation and turbulence was studied in a weak wind nocturnal inversion layer using a one-dimensional model. In contrast to a strong wind stable boundary layer where cooling within the surface inversion layer is dominated by turbulence, radiative cooling becomes larger than turbulent cooling under weak wind conditions. Further, the surface inversion layer was found to grow all through the night under weak wind conditions, whereas it attained a near equilibrium in the case of strong wind.

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Daniel A. Bishop, A. Park Williams, Richard Seager, Arlene M. Fiore, Benjamin I. Cook, Justin S. Mankin, Deepti Singh, Jason E. Smerdon, and Mukund P. Rao

Abstract

Much of the eastern United States experienced increased precipitation over the twentieth century. Characterizing these trends and their causes is critical for assessing future hydroclimate risks. Here, U.S. precipitation trends are analyzed for 1895–2016, revealing that fall precipitation in the southeastern region north of the Gulf of Mexico (SE-Gulf) increased by nearly 40%, primarily increasing after the mid-1900s. Because fall is the climatological dry season in the SE-Gulf and precipitation in other seasons changed insignificantly, the seasonal precipitation cycle diminished substantially. The increase in SE-Gulf fall precipitation was caused by increased southerly moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico, which was almost entirely driven by stronger winds associated with enhanced anticyclonic circulation west of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) and not by increases in specific humidity. Atmospheric models forced by observed SSTs and fully coupled models forced by historical anthropogenic forcing do not robustly simulate twentieth-century fall wetting in the SE-Gulf. SST-forced atmospheric models do simulate an intensified anticyclonic low-level circulation around the NASH, but the modeled intensification occurred farther west than observed. CMIP5 analyses suggest an increased likelihood of positive SE-Gulf fall precipitation trends given historical and future GHG forcing. Nevertheless, individual model simulations (both SST forced and fully coupled) only very rarely produce the observed magnitude of the SE-Gulf fall precipitation trend. Further research into model representation of the western ridge of the fall NASH is needed, which will help us to better predict whether twentieth-century increases in SE-Gulf fall precipitation will persist into the future.

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P. A. Francis, A. K. Jithin, J. B. Effy, A. Chatterjee, K. Chakraborty, A. Paul, B. Balaji, S. S. C. Shenoi, P. Biswamoy, A. Mukherjee, P. Singh, B. Deepsankar, S. Siva Reddy, P. N. Vinayachandran, M. S. Girish Kumar, T. V. S. Udaya Bhaskar, M. Ravichandran, A. S. Unnikrishnan, D. Shankar, A. Prakash, S. G. Aparna, R. Harikumar, K. Kaviyazhahu, K. Suprit, R. V. Shesu, N. Kiran Kumar, N. Srinivasa Rao, K. Annapurnaiah, R. Venkatesan, A. S. Rao, E. N. Rajagopal, V. S. Prasad, M. D. Gupta, T. M. Balakrishnan Nair, E. P. R. Rao, and B. V. Satyanarayana

Abstract

A good understanding of the general circulation features of the oceans, particularly of the coastal waters, and ability to predict the key oceanographic parameters with good accuracy and sufficient lead time are necessary for the safe conduct of maritime activities such as fishing, shipping, and offshore industries. Considering these requirements and buoyed by the advancements in the field of ocean modeling, data assimilation, and ocean observation networks along with the availability of the high-performance computational facility in India, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services has set up a “High-Resolution Operational Ocean Forecast and Reanalysis System” (HOOFS) with an aim to provide accurate ocean analysis and forecasts for the public, researchers, and other types of users like navigators and the Indian Coast Guard. Major components of HOOFS are (i) a suite of numerical ocean models configured for the Indian Ocean and the coastal waters using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for forecasting physical and biogeochemical state of the ocean and (ii) the data assimilation based on local ensemble transform Kalman filter that assimilates in situ and satellite observations in ROMS. Apart from the routine forecasts of key oceanographic parameters, a few important applications such as (i) Potential Fishing Zone forecasting system and (ii) Search and Rescue Aid Tool are also developed as part of the HOOFS project. The architecture of HOOFS, an account of the quality of ocean analysis and forecasts produced by it and important applications developed based on HOOFS are briefly discussed in this article.

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J.-P. Vernier, T. D. Fairlie, T. Deshler, M. Venkat Ratnam, H. Gadhavi, B. S. Kumar, M. Natarajan, A. K. Pandit, S. T. Akhil Raj, A. Hemanth Kumar, A. Jayaraman, A. K. Singh, N. Rastogi, P. R. Sinha, S. Kumar, S. Tiwari, T. Wegner, N. Baker, D. Vignelles, G. Stenchikov, I. Shevchenko, J. Smith, K. Bedka, A. Kesarkar, V. Singh, J. Bhate, V. Ravikiran, M. Durga Rao, S. Ravindrababu, A. Patel, H. Vernier, F. G. Wienhold, H. Liu, T. N. Knepp, L. Thomason, J. Crawford, L. Ziemba, J. Moore, S. Crumeyrolle, M. Williamson, G. Berthet, F. Jégou, and J.-B. Renard

Abstract

We describe and show results from a series of field campaigns that used balloonborne instruments launched from India and Saudi Arabia during the summers 2014–17 to study the nature, formation, and impacts of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL). The campaign goals were to i) characterize the optical, physical, and chemical properties of the ATAL; ii) assess its impacts on water vapor and ozone; and iii) understand the role of convection in its formation. To address these objectives, we launched 68 balloons from four locations, one in Saudi Arabia and three in India, with payload weights ranging from 1.5 to 50 kg. We measured meteorological parameters; ozone; water vapor; and aerosol backscatter, concentration, volatility, and composition in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region. We found peaks in aerosol concentrations of up to 25 cm–3 for radii > 94 nm, associated with a scattering ratio at 940 nm of ∼1.9 near the cold-point tropopause. During medium-duration balloon flights near the tropopause, we collected aerosols and found, after offline ion chromatography analysis, the dominant presence of nitrate ions with a concentration of about 100 ng m–3. Deep convection was found to influence aerosol loadings 1 km above the cold-point tropopause. The Balloon Measurements of the Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (BATAL) project will continue for the next 3–4 years, and the results gathered will be used to formulate a future National Aeronautics and Space Administration–Indian Space Research Organisation (NASA–ISRO) airborne campaign with NASA high-altitude aircraft.

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Tandong Yao, Yongkang Xue, Deliang Chen, Fahu Chen, Lonnie Thompson, Peng Cui, Toshio Koike, William K.-M. Lau, Dennis Lettenmaier, Volker Mosbrugger, Renhe Zhang, Baiqing Xu, Jeff Dozier, Thomas Gillespie, Yu Gu, Shichang Kang, Shilong Piao, Shiori Sugimoto, Kenichi Ueno, Lei Wang, Weicai Wang, Fan Zhang, Yongwei Sheng, Weidong Guo, Ailikun, Xiaoxin Yang, Yaoming Ma, Samuel S. P. Shen, Zhongbo Su, Fei Chen, Shunlin Liang, Yimin Liu, Vijay P. Singh, Kun Yang, Daqing Yang, Xinquan Zhao, Yun Qian, Yu Zhang, and Qian Li

Abstract

The Third Pole (TP) is experiencing rapid warming and is currently in its warmest period in the past 2,000 years. This paper reviews the latest development in multidisciplinary TP research associated with this warming. The rapid warming facilitates intense and broad glacier melt over most of the TP, although some glaciers in the northwest are advancing. By heating the atmosphere and reducing snow/ice albedo, aerosols also contribute to the glaciers melting. Glacier melt is accompanied by lake expansion and intensification of the water cycle over the TP. Precipitation has increased over the eastern and northwestern TP. Meanwhile, the TP is greening and most regions are experiencing advancing phenological trends, although over the southwest there is a spring phenological delay mainly in response to the recent decline in spring precipitation. Atmospheric and terrestrial thermal and dynamical processes over the TP affect the Asian monsoon at different scales. Recent evidence indicates substantial roles that mesoscale convective systems play in the TP’s precipitation as well as an association between soil moisture anomalies in the TP and the Indian monsoon. Moreover, an increase in geohazard events has been associated with recent environmental changes, some of which have had catastrophic consequences caused by glacial lake outbursts and landslides. Active debris flows are growing in both frequency of occurrences and spatial scale. Meanwhile, new types of disasters, such as the twin ice avalanches in Ali in 2016, are now appearing in the region. Adaptation and mitigation measures should be taken to help societies’ preparation for future environmental challenges. Some key issues for future TP studies are also discussed.

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Eric J. Jensen, Leonhard Pfister, David E. Jordan, Thaopaul V. Bui, Rei Ueyama, Hanwant B. Singh, Troy D. Thornberry, Andrew W. Rollins, Ru-Shan Gao, David W. Fahey, Karen H. Rosenlof, James W. Elkins, Glenn S. Diskin, Joshua P. DiGangi, R. Paul Lawson, Sarah Woods, Elliot L. Atlas, Maria A. Navarro Rodriguez, Steven C. Wofsy, Jasna Pittman, Charles G. Bardeen, Owen B. Toon, Bruce C. Kindel, Paul A. Newman, Matthew J. McGill, Dennis L. Hlavka, Leslie R. Lait, Mark R. Schoeberl, John W. Bergman, Henry B. Selkirk, M. Joan Alexander, Ji-Eun Kim, Boon H. Lim, Jochen Stutz, and Klaus Pfeilsticker

Abstract

The February–March 2014 deployment of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX) provided unique in situ measurements in the western Pacific tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Six flights were conducted from Guam with the long-range, high-altitude, unmanned Global Hawk aircraft. The ATTREX Global Hawk payload provided measurements of water vapor, meteorological conditions, cloud properties, tracer and chemical radical concentrations, and radiative fluxes. The campaign was partially coincident with the Convective Transport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) and the Coordinated Airborne Studies in the Tropics (CAST) airborne campaigns based in Guam using lower-altitude aircraft (see companion articles in this issue). The ATTREX dataset is being used for investigations of TTL cloud, transport, dynamical, and chemical processes, as well as for evaluation and improvement of global-model representations of TTL processes. The ATTREX data are publicly available online (at https://espoarchive.nasa.gov/).

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