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Sachiho A. Adachi, Fujio Kimura, Hiroyuki Kusaka, Tomoshige Inoue, and Hiroaki Ueda
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Hiroshi G. Takahashi, Sachiho A. Adachi, Tomonori Sato, Masayuki Hara, Xieyao Ma, and Fujio Kimura

Abstract

This study used a 4-km resolution regional climate model to examine the sensitivity of surface air temperature on the Pacific coast of Japan to sea surface temperature (SST) south of the Pacific coast of Japan during summer. The authors performed a control simulation (CTL) driven by reanalysis and observational SST datasets. A series of sensitivity experiments using climatological values from the CTL SST datasets over a 31-yr period was conducted. The interannual variation in surface air temperature over the Pacific coast was well simulated in CTL. The interannual variation in SST over the Kuroshio region amplified the interannual variation in surface air temperature over the Pacific coast. It was found that 30% of the total variance of interannual variation in surface air temperature can be controlled by interannual variation in SST. The calculated surface air temperature on the Pacific coast increased by 0.4 K per 1-K SST warming in the Kuroshio region. Note that this sensitivity was considerably greater during nighttime than during daytime. Concurrent with the warming in surface air temperature, downward longwave radiation at the surface was also increased. In summer, the increase in latent heat flux was considerably larger than that in sensible heat flux over the ocean because of SST warming, according to the temperature dependence of the Bowen ratio. This implies that the primary factor for the increase in surface air temperature in summer is increased moisture in the lower troposphere, indicating that the regional warming was caused by an increase in H2O greenhouse gas.

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Sachiho A. Adachi, Fujio Kimura, Hiroyuki Kusaka, Tomoshige Inoue, and Hiroaki Ueda

Abstract

In this study, the impact of global climate change and anticipated urbanization over the next 70 years is estimated with regard to the summertime local climate in the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA), whose population is already near its peak now. First, five climate projections for the 2070s calculated with the aid of general circulation models (GCMs) are used for dynamical downscaling experiments to evaluate the impact of global climate changes using a regional climate model. Second, the sensitivity of future urbanization until the 2070s is examined assuming a simple developing urban scenario for the TMA. These two sensitivity analyses indicate that the increase in the surface air temperature from the 1990s to the 2070s is about 2.0°C as a result of global climate changes under the A1B scenario in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and about 0.5°C as a result of urbanization. Considering the current urban heat island intensity (UHII) of 1.0°C, the possible UHII in the future reaches an average of 1.5°C in the TMA. This means that the mitigation of the UHII should be one of the ways to adapt to a local temperature increase caused by changes in the future global climate. In addition, the estimation of temperature increase due to global climate change has an uncertainty of about 2.0°C depending on the GCM projection, suggesting that the local climate should be projected on the basis of multiple GCM projections.

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Sachiho A. Adachi, Fujio Kimura, Hiroyuki Kusaka, Michael G. Duda, Yoshiki Yamagata, Hajime Seya, Kumiko Nakamichi, and Toshinori Aoyagi

Abstract

This study investigated the moderation of the urban heat island via changes in the urban form in the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA). Two urban scenarios with the same population as that of the current urban form were used for sensitivity experiments: the dispersed-city and compact-city scenarios. Numerical experiments using the two urban scenarios as well as an experiment using the current urban form were conducted using a regional climate model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model. The averaged nighttime surface air temperature in TMA increased by ~0.34°C in the dispersed-city scenario and decreased by ~0.1°C in the compact-city scenario. Therefore, the compact-city scenario had significant potential for moderating the mean areal heat-island effect in the entire TMA. Alternatively, in the central part of the TMA, these two urban-form scenarios produced opposite effects on the surface air temperature; that is, severe thermal conditions worsened further in the compact-city scenario because of the denser population. This result suggests that the compact-city form is not always appropriate for moderation of the urban-heat-island effect. This scenario would need to combine with other mitigation strategies, such as the additional greening of urban areas, especially in the central area. This study suggests that it is important to design a plan to adapt to higher urban temperatures, which are likely to ensue from future global warming and the urban heat island, from several perspectives; that is, designs should take into account not only climatological aspects but also impacts on urban inhabitants.

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Takumi Honda, Takemasa Miyoshi, Guo-Yuan Lien, Seiya Nishizawa, Ryuji Yoshida, Sachiho A. Adachi, Koji Terasaki, Kozo Okamoto, Hirofumi Tomita, and Kotaro Bessho

Abstract

Japan’s new geostationary satellite Himawari-8, the first of a series of the third-generation geostationary meteorological satellites including GOES-16, has been operational since July 2015. Himawari-8 produces high-resolution observations with 16 frequency bands every 10 min for full disk, and every 2.5 min for local regions. This study aims to assimilate all-sky every-10-min infrared (IR) radiances from Himawari-8 with a regional numerical weather prediction model and to investigate its impact on real-world tropical cyclone (TC) analyses and forecasts for the first time. The results show that the assimilation of Himawari-8 IR radiances improves the analyzed TC structure in both inner-core and outer-rainband regions. The TC intensity forecasts are also improved due to Himawari-8 data because of the improved TC structure analysis.

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Izuru Takayabu, Roy Rasmussen, Eiichi Nakakita, Andreas Prein, Hiroaki Kawase, Shun-Ichi Watanabe, Sachiho A. Adachi, Tetsuya Takemi, Kosei Yamaguchi, Yukari Osakada, and Ying-Hsin Wu
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