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Kazuto Takemura, Hitoshi Mukougawa, and Shuhei Maeda

Abstract

Rossby wave propagation along the Asian jet during boreal summer, such as the Silk Road pattern, frequently causes wave breaking near the Asian jet exit region. This study examines the statistical relationship between interannual variability of the Rossby wave breaking frequency near Japan and large-scale atmospheric circulation during the boreal summer. The Rossby wave breaking frequency in the midlatitudes climatologically shows its maximum near Japan, and significantly increases during La Niña years. The upper-tropospheric circulation regressed onto the Rossby wave breaking frequency near Japan in August shows large-scale anomalous convergence from the tropical central to eastern Pacific and divergence around the Indian Ocean. The consequent northward anomalous divergent wind over Eurasia contributes to enhancement and northward shift of the Asian jet. The Asian jet also shows meridional meandering with a phase of anomalous anticyclonic circulation near Japan accompanied by the frequent Rossby wave breaking, which is associated with the Silk Road pattern. The frequent Rossby wave breaking is related to southwestward intrusion of anomalous low potential temperature air mass toward the subtropical western North Pacific associated with an enhanced mid-Pacific trough. West of the southwestward cold-air intrusion, enhanced cumulus convection is seen around the northern Philippines, and the Pacific–Japan pattern is significantly seen in the lower troposphere. This result is consistent with a previous study that revealed a linkage mechanism between the Rossby wave breaking near Japan and the Pacific–Japan pattern through dynamically induced ascent resulting in an intrusion of high potential vorticity associated with the Rossby wave breaking.

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Yuhei Takaya, Naoaki Saito, Ichiro Ishikawa, and Shuhei Maeda

Abstract

This study investigates the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) on the Indo–western Pacific summer climate by analyzing record-high NTA SSTs in summer 2010. In that time, a decaying El Niño and developing La Niña were accompanied by widespread anomalous climate conditions in the Indo–western Pacific. These conditions are typical of summers that follow El Niño events and are often explained as being due to the influence of Indian Ocean warming induced by El Niños. Meanwhile, the record-high NTA SSTs that resulted from the influence of El Niño, the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the interdecadal-and-longer NTA SST variability are one of the possible causes of anomalous conditions in the Indo–western Pacific. The results of sensitivity experiments using a coupled atmosphere–ocean model clearly indicate that the high NTA SSTs had a considerable influence on the summer weather in the Indo–western Pacific via two tropical routes: an eastbound route that involved a reinforcement of the atmospheric equatorial Kelvin wave and a westbound route that involved altering the Walker circulation over the Atlantic–Pacific region. The altered Walker circulation facilitated the transition to La Niña, amplifying the impact on the western North Pacific monsoon. Further evaluation reveals that both the interannual and interdecadal-and-longer variability of the NTA SST contributed to the anomalous Indo–western Pacific summer. The results highlight the interannual to multidecadal predictability of the Indo–western Pacific summer climate that originates in the NTA.

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Toshichika Iizumi, Yuhei Takaya, Wonsik Kim, Toshiyuki Nakaegawa, and Shuhei Maeda

Abstract

Weather and climate variability associated with major climate modes is a main driver of interannual yield variability of commodity crops in global cropland areas. A global crop forecasting service that is currently in the test operation phase is based on temperature and precipitation forecasts, while recent literature suggests that crop forecasting services may benefit from the use of climate index forecasts. However, no consistent comparison is available on prediction skill between yield models relying on forecasts from temperature and precipitation and from climate indices. Here, we present a global assessment of 26-yr (1983–2008) within-season yield anomaly hindcasts for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean derived using different types of statistical yield models. One type of model utilizes temperature and precipitation for individual cropping areas (the TP model type) to represent the current service, whereas the other type relies on large-scale climate indices (the CI model). For the TP models, three specifications with different model complexities are compared. The results show that the CI model is characterized by a small reduction in the skillful area from the reanalysis model to the hindcast model and shows the largest skillful areas for rice and soybean. In the TP models, the skill of the simple model is comparable to that of the more complex models. Our findings suggest that the use of climate index forecasts for global crop forecasting services in addition to temperature and precipitation forecasts likely increases the total number of crops and countries where skillful yield anomaly prediction is feasible.

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Yukiko Imada, Hideo Shiogama, Chiharu Takahashi, Masahiro Watanabe, Masato Mori, Youichi Kamae, and Shuhei Maeda
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