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Shuntai Zhou and Peter H. Stone

Abstract

Lorenz's two-level model on a sphere is used to investigate how the results of Part I are modified when the interaction of the vertical eddy heat flux and static stability is included. In general, the climate state does not depend very much on whether or not this interaction is included, because the poleward eddy heat transport dominates the eddy forcing of mean temperature and wind fields. However, the climatic sensitivity is significantly affected. Compared to two-level model results with fixed static stability, the poleward eddy heat flux is less sensitive to the meridional temperature gradient and the gradient is more sensitive to the forcing. For example, the logarithmic derivative of the eddy flux with respect to the gradient has a slope that is reduced from ∼15 on a β-plane with fixed static stability and ∼6 on a sphere with fixed static stability, to ∼3 to 4 in the present model. This last result is more in line with analyses from observations. The present model also has a stronger baroclinic adjustment than that in Part I, more like that in two-level β-plane models with fixed static stability, that is, the midlatitude isentropic slope is very insensitive to the forcing, the diabatic heating, and the friction, unless the forcing is very weak.

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Shuntai Zhou and Peter H. Stone

Abstract

An efficient two-level model on a sphere that is based on the balance equations with fixed static stability is developed and used to study how eddies arising from baroclinic instability interact with the temperature structure. The model gives a much better simulation of the eddy momentum flux and of the total eddy forcing of the zonal-mean temperature and zonal wind fields than do quasigeostrophic β-plane models. Nonetheless, the results are qualitatively similar. The midlatitude eddy regimes range between two extreme cases. In one, the eddies have no effect on the temperature and zonal wind fields, and in the other (similar to the observed atmosphere), the eddy forcing of the temperature and zonal wind fields is dominated by the eddy beat flux. Also, a kind of baroclinic adjustment occurs in the regimes where eddy effects are strong, with the meridional temperature gradient in midlatitudes being proportional to the static stability. Quantitatively some of the model's results differ significantly from those based on the quasigeostrophic β-plane. For example, the temperature structure is much more sensitive to the external forcing, and the eddy beat flux is less sensitive to the temperature structure.

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Shuntai Zhou and Alvin J. Miller

Abstract

Tropical and extratropical interactions on the intraseasonal time scale are studied in the context of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). To simplify the discussion, a high (low) MJO phase is defined as strong (suppressed) convective activity over the Indian Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter season, a high (low) AO phase is found more likely coupled with a high (low) MJO phase. Based on the regressed patterns and composites of various dynamical fields and quantities, possible mechanisms linking the AO and the MJO are examined. The analysis indicates that the MJO influence on extratropical circulations seems more evident than the AO influence on tropical circulations. The MJO interacts with the AO through meridional dispersion of Rossby waves in the Pacific sector. The geopotential height anomaly center over the North Pacific associated with the MJO can either reinforce or offset the AO Pacific action center. As a result, the AO pattern can be greatly affected by the MJO. When the AO and the MJO are in the same (opposite) phase, the Pacific action center becomes much stronger (weaker) than the Atlantic action center. The eddy momentum transports associated with the MJO in the Pacific sector are closely related to the retraction and extension of tropical Pacific easterlies and the subtropical Asian–Pacific jet. Because of its large scale, this regional effect is also reflected in the zonal mean state of wave transport and wave forcing on zonal wind, which in turn affects the phase of the AO.

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Shuntai Zhou, Alvin J. Miller, Julian Wang, and James K. Angell

Abstract

Dynamical links of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere are studied, with an emphasis on whether stratospheric changes have a direct effect on tropospheric weather and climate. In particular, downward propagation of stratospheric anomalies of polar temperature in the winter–spring season is examined based upon 22 years of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. It is found that the polar stratosphere is sometimes preconditioned, which allows a warm anomaly to propagate from the upper stratosphere to the troposphere, and sometimes it prohibits downward propagation. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is more clearly seen in the former case. To understand what dynamical conditions dictate the stratospheric property of downward propagation, the upper-stratospheric warming episodes with very large anomalies (such as stratospheric sudden warming) are selected and divided into two categories according to their downward-propagating features. Eliassen–Palm (E–P) diagnostics and wave propagation theories are used to examine the characteristics of wave–mean flow interactions in the two different categories. It is found that in the propagating case the initial wave forcing is very large and the polar westerly wind is reversed. As a result, dynamically induced anomalies propagate down as the critical line descends. A positive feedback is that the dramatic change in zonal wind alters the refractive index in a way favorable for continuous poleward transport of wave energy. The second pulse of wave flux conducts polar warm anomalies farther down. Consequently, the upper-tropospheric circulations are changed, in particular, the subtropical North Atlantic jet stream shifts to the south by ∼5 degrees of latitude, and the alignment of the jet stream becomes more zonal, which is similar to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

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Robert M. MacKay, Malcolm K. W. Ko, Run-Lie Shia, Yajaing Yang, Shuntai Zhou, and Gyula Molnar

Abstract

In order to study the potential climatic effects of the ozone hole more directly and to assess the validity of previous lower resolution model results, the latest high spatial resolution version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., seasonal radiative dynamical climate model is used to simulate the climatic effects of ozone changes relative to the other greenhouse gases. The steady-state climatic effect of a sustained decrease in lower stratospheric ozone, similar in magnitude to the observed 1979–90 decrease, is estimated by comparing three steady-state climate simulations: I) 1979 greenhouse gas concentrations and 1979 ozone, II) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1979 ozone, and III) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1990 ozone. The simulated increase in surface air temperature resulting from nonozone greenhouse gases is 0.272 K. When changes in lower stratospheric ozone are included, the greenhouse warming is 0.165 K, which is approximately 39% lower than when ozone is fixed at the 1979 concentrations. Ozone perturbations at high latitudes result in a cooling of the surface–troposphere system that is greater (by a factor of 2.8) than that estimated from the change in radiative forcing resulting from ozone depletion and the model’s 2 × CO2 climate sensitivity. The results suggest that changes in meridional heat transport from low to high latitudes combined with the decrease in the infrared opacity of the lower stratosphere are very important in determining the steady-state response to high latitude ozone losses. The 39% compensation in greenhouse warming resulting from lower stratospheric ozone losses is also larger than the 28% compensation simulated previously by the lower resolution model. The higher resolution model is able to resolve the high latitude features of the assumed ozone perturbation, which are important in determining the overall climate sensitivity to these perturbations.

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Suranjana Saha, Shrinivas Moorthi, Hua-Lu Pan, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, Robert Kistler, John Woollen, David Behringer, Haixia Liu, Diane Stokes, Robert Grumbine, George Gayno, Jun Wang, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Hann-Ming H. Juang, Joe Sela, Mark Iredell, Russ Treadon, Daryl Kleist, Paul Van Delst, Dennis Keyser, John Derber, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Rongqian Yang, Stephen Lord, Huug van den Dool, Arun Kumar, Wanqiu Wang, Craig Long, Muthuvel Chelliah, Yan Xue, Boyin Huang, Jae-Kyung Schemm, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Roger Lin, Pingping Xie, Mingyue Chen, Shuntai Zhou, Wayne Higgins, Cheng-Zhi Zou, Quanhua Liu, Yong Chen, Yong Han, Lidia Cucurull, Richard W. Reynolds, Glenn Rutledge, and Mitch Goldberg

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface–sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over this period. The current CFSR will be extended as an operational, real-time product into the future. New features of the CFSR include 1) coupling of the atmosphere and ocean during the generation of the 6-h guess field, 2) an interactive sea ice model, and 3) assimilation of satellite radiances by the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) scheme over the entire period. The CFSR global atmosphere resolution is ~38 km (T382) with 64 levels extending from the surface to 0.26 hPa. The global ocean's latitudinal spacing is 0.25° at the equator, extending to a global 0.5° beyond the tropics, with 40 levels to a depth of 4737 m. The global land surface model has four soil levels and the global sea ice model has three layers. The CFSR atmospheric model has observed variations in carbon dioxide (CO2) over the 1979–2009 period, together with changes in aerosols and other trace gases and solar variations. Most available in situ and satellite observations were included in the CFSR. Satellite observations were used in radiance form, rather than retrieved values, and were bias corrected with “spin up” runs at full resolution, taking into account variable CO2 concentrations. This procedure enabled the smooth transitions of the climate record resulting from evolutionary changes in the satellite observing system.

CFSR atmospheric, oceanic, and land surface output products are available at an hourly time resolution and a horizontal resolution of 0.5° latitude × 0.5° longitude. The CFSR data will be distributed by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NCAR. This reanalysis will serve many purposes, including providing the basis for most of the NCEP Climate Prediction Center's operational climate products by defining the mean states of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and sea ice over the next 30-yr climate normal (1981–2010); providing initial conditions for historical forecasts that are required to calibrate operational NCEP climate forecasts (from week 2 to 9 months); and providing estimates and diagnoses of the Earth's climate state over the satellite data period for community climate research.

Preliminary analysis of the CFSR output indicates a product that is far superior in most respects to the reanalysis of the mid-1990s. The previous NCEP–NCAR reanalyses have been among the most used NCEP products in history; there is every reason to believe the CFSR will supersede these older products both in scope and quality, because it is higher in time and space resolution, covers the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land, and was executed in a coupled mode with a more modern data assimilation system and forecast model.

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