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Warren J. Tennant, Glenn J. Shutts, Alberto Arribas, and Simon A. Thompson

Abstract

An improved stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme, version 2 (SKEB2) has been developed for the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). Wind increments at each model time step are derived from a streamfunction forcing pattern that is modulated by a locally diagnosed field of likely energy loss due to numerical smoothing and unrepresented convective sources of kinetic energy near the grid scale. The scheme has a positive impact on the root-mean-square error of the ensemble mean and spread of the ensemble. An improved growth rate of spread results in a better match with ensemble-mean forecast error at all forecast lead times, with a corresponding improvement in probabilistic forecast skill from a more realistic representation of model error. Other examples of positive impact include improved forecast blocking frequency and reduced forecast jumpiness. The paper describes the formulation of the SKEB2 and its assessment in various experiments.

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James N. Moum, Simon P. de Szoeke, William D. Smyth, James B. Edson, H. Langley DeWitt, Aurélie J. Moulin, Elizabeth J. Thompson, Christopher J. Zappa, Steven A. Rutledge, Richard H. Johnson, and Christopher W. Fairall

The life cycles of three Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) events were observed over the Indian Ocean as part of the Dynamics of the MJO (DYNAMO) experiment. During November 2011 near 0°, 80°E, the site of the research vessel Roger Revelle, the authors observed intense multiscale interactions within an MJO convective envelope, including exchanges between synoptic, meso, convective, and turbulence scales in both atmosphere and ocean and complicated by a developing tropical cyclone. Embedded within the MJO event, two bursts of sustained westerly wind (>10 m s−1; 0–8-km height) and enhanced precipitation passed over the ship, each propagating eastward as convectively coupled Kelvin waves at an average speed of 8.6 m s−1. The ocean response was rapid, energetic, and complex. The Yoshida–Wyrtki jet at the equator accelerated from less than 0.5 m s−1 to more than 1.5 m s−1 in 2 days. This doubled the eastward transport along the ocean's equatorial waveguide. Oceanic (subsurface) turbulent heat fluxes were comparable to atmospheric surface fluxes, thus playing a comparable role in cooling the sea surface. The sustained eastward surface jet continued to energize shear-driven entrainment at its base (near 100-m depth) after the MJO wind bursts subsided, thereby further modifying sea surface temperature for a period of several weeks after the storms had passed.

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