Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for

  • Author or Editor: Someshwar Das x
  • All content x
Clear All Modify Search
Someshwar Das, A. K. Mitra, G. R. Iyengar, and J. Singh

Abstract

The operational global spectral model of the National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) at T80 resolution and 18 vertical levels has been used to study the skill of medium-range forecasts using three different parameterizations of deep convection namely, a Kuo–Anthes-type cumulus parameterization scheme referred to as “KUO” scheme, the relaxed Arakawa–Schubert (RAS) scheme, and the simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) scheme, during an active phase of the Indian summer monsoon. Several medium-range forecasts (up to 5 days) have been made using the initial conditions of July and August of 1999, when the monsoon was active over the Indian region. Skill scores of predicted rainfall, rmse of wind and temperature, systematic errors, and genesis and tracks of the monsoon depressions predicted by the three schemes have been studied. Results indicate that, in general, the areas of light (heavy) rainfall are overestimated (underestimated) by KUO, which also fails to predict the rain-shadow effect observed over southern peninsular India. RAS and SAS produce fairly good forecasts of the observed rainfall; however, the best forecast is produced by SAS in most of the rainfall categories over the Indian region. The rmse of wind and temperature do not show significant differences among the three schemes over the global domain; however, they indicate considerable differences over the Indian region. The rmse of wind is slightly higher in RAS and SAS because of overestimation of the strength of the low-level westerly jet and upper-level tropical easterly jet. Errors in temperature forecasts are considerably reduced by RAS and SAS on all days. Systematic errors of the forecasts indicate that KUO tries to weaken the observed southwesterly flow and the low-level jet during the monsoon. RAS and SAS try to intensify the easterlies over the north Indian plains and to strengthen the monsoon trough. They shift the core of the tropical easterly jet stream to the south of its normal position. SAS reduces the cold bias almost everywhere over the Indian region. The improved simulation of temperature by SAS results in the reduction of rmse. The reduction of cold bias and improved simulated temperature by SAS indicate a proper redistribution of heat by deep convective clouds over the region by this scheme. Study of the lows and monsoon depressions indicated that the best forecast of the location of the genesis was produced by RAS. All three schemes were able to predict the tracks of the depression fairly well in the 24 h, but SAS produced relatively fewer errors when compared with the other two schemes. In most of the cases, SAS was also able to maintain the system up to 72 h, whereas the other two schemes weakened the systems.

Full access
Someshwar Das, U. C. Mohanty, and O. P. Sharma

Abstract

The performances of several versions of the Kuo-type cumulus parameterization schemes have been examined during different phases of the summer monsoon. These phases are the preonset, an onset and a period of break in the monsoon. Special sets of upper air observations that were collected from stationary ships forming polygons over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal during MONEX-79 were used for this purpose. Cumulus warming, drying and precipitation rates have been simulated in a semiprognostic way and compared with the observations.

The limitations of different schemes for numerical weather prediction are discussed. Among various Kuo-type cumulus parameterization schemes studied in this article, a modified Kuo-scheme is found to provide best results during the summer monsoon. In this scheme the moistening parameter is determined based upon the relative humidity and it is tuned for different phases of the monsoon.

A comparison of the performance of various schemes during different phases of the monsoon was made. The heating and drying rates were best simulated during a preonset phase, when compared with the other two periods. The largest deviations between observed and simulated values were obtained during a break in the monsoon.

Full access
Someshwar Das, S. V. Singh, E. N. Rajagopal, and Robert Gall

Severe weather has a more calamitous effect in the mountainous region because the terrain is complex and the economy is poorly developed and fragile. Such weather systems occurring on a small spatiotemporal scale invite application of models with fine-grid resolution and observations from radars and satellites besides the conventional observations for forecasting and disaster mitigation.

Full access
S. A. Saseendran, S. V. Singh, L. S. Rathore, and Someshwar Das

Abstract

Weekly cumulative rainfall forecasts were made for the meteorologically homogeneous areas of the Indian subcontinent, divided into meteorological subdivisions, by performing 7-day integrations of the operational Indian T80 Global Spectral Model every Wednesday during the six southwest monsoon seasons of 1994–99. Objective evaluations of the bias and accuracy of these forecasts during that 6-yr period are made through various forecast verification methods and are presented here. The skill or relative accuracy of the forecasts and some verification measures are quantified by computing the Heidke skill score (HSS), Hanssen–Kuipers discriminant (HKS), threat score (TS), hit rate (HR), probability of detection (POD), bias score, and false-alarm rate (FAR). The study revealed that the T80 model has a tendency to underpredict rainfall over most of the subdivisions falling on the windward side of the Western Ghats and sub-Himalayan areas. The model exhibited negative bias in rainfall simulations over the desert regions of Rajasthan and over the Arabian Sea and bay islands. There is a positive bias in the rainfall simulated over the subdivisions falling in the rain-shadow regions of the Western Ghats. The TS, POD, and FAR computations show that the predicted weekly rainfall over different subdivisions in the excess and scanty categories has more skill than those in the normal and deficient categories. The HR values range from 0.21 to 1 over different subdivisions. The HSS and HKS scores indicate better skill in rainfall forecast in the central belt of India where the orographic influence over rainfall distribution is comparatively less. Better correspondence between the magnitude of the predicted and observed rainfall is apparent in the all-India time series of weekly cumulative rainfall.

Full access
Someshwar Das, U. C. Mohanty, Ajit Tyagi, D. R. Sikka, P. V. Joseph, L. S. Rathore, Arjumand Habib, Saraju K. Baidya, Kinzang Sonam, and Abhijit Sarkar

This article describes a unique field experiment on Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) jointly undertaken by eight South Asian countries. Several pilot field experiments have been conducted so far, and the results are analyzed. The field experiments will continue through 2016.

The STORM program was originally conceived for understanding the severe thunderstorms known as nor'westers that affect West Bengal and the northeastern parts of India during the pre-monsoon season. The nor'westers cause loss of human lives and damage to properties worth millions of dollars annually. Since the neighboring South Asian countries are also affected by thunderstorms, the STORM program is expanded to cover the South Asian countries under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). It covers all the SAARC countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) in three phases. Some of the science plans (monitoring the life cycle of nor'westers/severe thunderstorms and their three-dimensional structure) designed to understand the interrelationship among dynamics, cloud microphysics, and electrical properties in the thunderstorm environment are new to severe weather research. This paper describes the general setting of the field experiment and discusses preliminary results based on the pilot field data. Typical lengths and the intensity of squall lines, the speed of movements, and cloud-top temperatures and their heights are discussed based on the pilot field data. The SAARC STORM program will complement the Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) of the WMO. It should also generate large-scale interest for fueling research among the scientific community and broaden the perspectives of operational meteorologists and researchers.

Full access