Abstract

The coupling between tropical convection and zonally propagating gravity waves is assessed through Fourier analysis of high-resolution (3-hourly, 0.5°) satellite rainfall data. Results show the familiar enhancement in power along the dispersion curves of equatorially trapped inertia–gravity waves with implied equivalent depths in the range 15–40 m (i.e., pure gravity wave speeds in the range 12–20 m s⁻¹). Here, such wave signals are seen to extend all the way down to zonal wavelengths of around 500 km and periods of around 8 h, suggesting that convection–wave coupling may be important even in the context of mesoscale squall lines. This idea is supported by an objective wave-tracking algorithm, which shows that many previously studied squall lines, in addition to “2-day waves,” can be classified as convectively coupled inertia–gravity waves with the dispersion properties of shallow-water gravity waves. Most of these disturbances propagate westward at speeds faster than the background flow. To understand why, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model is used to perform some near-cloud-resolving simulations of convection on an equatorial beta plane. Results indicate that low-level easterly shear of the background zonal flow, as opposed to steering by any mean flow, is essential for explaining the observed westward-propagation bias.

Abstract

A three-dimensional cloud-resolving model, maintained in a statistically steady convecting state by tropics-like forcing, is subjected to sudden (10 min) stimuli consisting of horizontally homogeneous temperature and/or moisture sources with various profiles. Ensembles of simulations are used to increase the statistical robustness of the results and to assess the deterministic nature of the model response for domain sizes near contemporary global model resolution. The response to middle- and upper-tropospheric perturbations is predominantly local in the vertical: convection damps the imposed stimulus over a few hours. Low-level perturbations are similarly damped, but also produce a vertically nonlocal response: enhancement or suppression of new deep convective clouds extending above the perturbed level. Experiments show that the “effective inhibition layer” for deep convection is about 4 km deep, far deeper than traditional convective inhibition defined for undilute lifted parcels. Both the local and nonlocal responses are remarkably linear but can be highly stochastic, especially if deep convection is only intermittently present (small domains, weak forcing). Quantitatively, temperature-versus-moisture perturbations in a ratio corresponding to adiabatic vertical displacements produce responses of roughly equal magnitude. However, moisture perturbations seem to provoke the nonlocal (upward spreading) type of response more effectively. This nonlocal part of the response is also more effective when background forcing intensity is weak. Only at very high intensity does the response approach the limits of purely local damping and pure determinism that would be most convenient for theory and parameterization.

Abstract

Multiscale convective wave disturbances with structures broadly resembling observed tropical waves are found to emerge spontaneously in a nonrotating, two-dimensional cloud model forced by uniform cooling. To articulate the dynamics of these waves, model outputs are objectively analyzed in a discrete truncated space consisting of three cloud types (shallow convective, deep convective, and stratiform) and three dynamical vertical wavelength bands. Model experiments confirm that diabatic processes in deep convective and stratiform regions are essential to the formation of multiscale convective wave patterns. Specifically, upper-level heating (together with low-level cooling) serves to preferentially excite discrete horizontally propagating wave packets with roughly a full-wavelength structure in troposphere and “dry” phase speeds c_n in the range 16–18 m s⁻¹. These wave packets enhance the triggering of new deep convective cloud systems, via low-level destabilization. The new convection in turn causes additional heating over cooling, through delayed development of high-based deep convective cells with persistent stratiform anvils. This delayed forcing leads to an intensification and then widening of the low-level cold phases of wave packets as they move through convecting regions. Additional widening occurs when slower-moving (∼8 m s⁻¹) “gust front” wave packets excited by cooling just above the boundary layer trigger additional deep convection in the vicinity of earlier convection. Shallow convection, meanwhile, provides positive forcing that reduces convective wave speeds and destroys relatively small-amplitude-sized waves. Experiments with prescribed modal wind damping establish the critical role of short vertical wavelengths in setting the equivalent depth of the waves. However, damping of deep vertical wavelengths prevents the clustering of mesoscale convective wave disturbances into larger-scale envelopes, so these circulations are important as well.

Abstract

The composite structure of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has long been known to feature pronounced Rossby gyres in the subtropical upper troposphere, whose existence can be interpreted as the forced response to convective heating anomalies in the presence of a subtropical westerly jet. The question of interest here is whether these forced gyre circulations have any subsequent effects on divergence patterns in the tropics and the Kelvin-mode component of the MJO. A nonlinear spherical shallow water model is used to investigate how the introduction of different background jet profiles affects the model’s steady-state response to an imposed MJO-like stationary thermal forcing. Results show that a stronger jet leads to a stronger Kelvin-mode response in the tropics up to a critical jet speed, along with stronger divergence anomalies in the vicinity of the forcing. To understand this behavior, additional calculations are performed in which a localized vorticity forcing is imposed in the extratropics, without any thermal forcing in the tropics. The response is once again seen to include pronounced equatorial Kelvin waves, provided the jet is of sufficient amplitude. A detailed analysis of the vorticity budget reveals that the zonal-mean zonal wind shear plays a key role in amplifying the Kelvin-mode divergent winds near the equator, with the effects of nonlinearities being of negligible importance. These results help to explain why the MJO tends to be strongest during boreal winter when the Indo-Pacific jet is typically at its strongest.

Abstract

The organization of tropical convection is assessed through an object-based analysis of satellite brightness temperature data T_b , a proxy for convective activity. The analysis involves the detection of contiguous cloud regions (CCRs) in the three-dimensional space of latitude, longitude, and time where T_b falls below a given threshold. A range of thresholds is considered and only CCRs that satisfy a minimum size constraint are retained in the analysis. Various statistical properties of CCRs are documented including their zonal speed of propagation, which is estimated using a Radon transformation technique. Consistent with previous studies, a majority of CCRs are found to propagate westward, typically at speeds of around 15 m s⁻¹, regardless of underlying T_b threshold. Most of these zonally propagating CCRs have lifetimes less than 2 days and zonal widths less than 800 km, implying aggregation of just a few individual mesoscale convective systems. This object-based perspective is somewhat different than that obtained in previous Fourier-based analyses, which primarily emphasize the organization of convection on synoptic and planetary scales via wave–convection coupling. To reconcile these contrasting views, an object-based data reconstruction is developed that objectively demonstrates how the spectral peaks of synoptic- to planetary-scale waves can be attributed to the organization of CCRs into larger-scale wave envelopes. A novel method based on the randomization of CCRs in physical space leads to an empirical background spectrum for organized tropical convection that does not rely on any smoothing in spectral space. Normalization by this background reveals spectral peaks associated with synoptic- and planetary-scale waves that are consistent with previous studies.

Abstract

A set of 30-day reforecast experiments, focused on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) cool season (November–March), is performed to quantify the remote impacts of tropical forecast errors on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS). The approach is to nudge the model toward reanalyses in the tropics and then measure the change in skill at higher latitudes as a function of lead time. In agreement with previous analogous studies, results show that midlatitude predictions tend to be improved in association with reducing tropical forecast errors during weeks 2–4, particularly over the North Pacific and western North America, where gains in subseasonal precipitation anomaly pattern correlations are substantial. It is also found that tropical nudging is more effective at improving NH subseasonal predictions in cases where skill is relatively low in the control reforecast, whereas it tends to improve fewer cases that are already relatively skillful. By testing various tropical nudging configurations, it is shown that tropical circulation errors play a primary role in the remote modulation of predictive skill. A time-dependent analysis suggests a roughly 1-week lag between a decrease in tropical errors and an increase in NH predictive skill. A combined tropical nudging and conditional skill analysis indicates that improved Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) predictions throughout its life cycle could improve weeks 3–4 NH precipitation predictions.

Abstract

Three idealized simulations of thunderstorm outflows are presented. Each outflow is a response to an instantaneous low-level cooling. The vertical structures of the coolings differ as do the environments in which the outflows form, and consequently the dynamics of the outflows differ. One outflow is a gravity current, another is a gravity wave, and the third comprises both a gravity current and a gravity wave. The horizontal transport of mass is important for the advance of the gravity-current outflow, but not for the gravity wave outflow, and it is suggested that this is the defining dynamical distinction between the two outflows. The simulations are compared to observations and it is suggested that some outflows previously characterized as gravity currents may better fit the gravity wave or gravity current/wave archetypes. It is also noted that the gravity wave component of an outflow may be generated directly by low-level cooling in addition to the commonly suggested mechanism of the interaction of a gravity current with a stable layer.

Abstract

This paper describes an analysis of large-scale [O(1000 km)] convectively coupled gravity waves simulated using a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model. The waves develop spontaneously under uniform radiative cooling and approximately zero-mean-flow conditions, with wavenumber 2 of the domain appearing most prominently and right-moving components dominating over left-moving components for random reasons. The analysis discretizes the model output in two ways. First, a vertical-mode transform projects profiles of winds, temperature, and heating onto the vertical modes of the model’s base-state atmosphere. Second, a cloud-partitioning algorithm sorts sufficiently cloudy grid columns into three categories: shallow convective, deep convective, and stratiform anvil.

Results show that much of the tilted structures of the waves can be captured by just two main vertical spectral “bands,” each consisting of a pair of vertical modes. The “slow” modes have propagation speeds of 16 and 18 m s⁻¹ (and roughly a full-wavelength vertical structure through the troposphere), while the “fast” modes have speeds of 35 and 45 m s⁻¹ (and roughly a half-wavelength structure). Deep convection anomalies in the waves are more or less in phase with the low-level cold temperature anomalies of the slow modes and in quadrature with those of the fast modes. Owing to the characteristic life cycle of deep convective cloud systems, shallow convective heating peaks ∼2 h prior to maximum deep convective heating, while stratiform heating peaks ∼3 h after. The onset of deep convection in the waves is preceded by a gradual deepening of shallow convection lasting a period of many hours.

Results of this study are in broad agreement with simple two-mode models of unstable large-scale wave growth, under the name “stratiform instability.” Differences here are that 1) the key dynamical modes have speeds in the range 16–18 m s⁻¹, rather than 23–25 m s⁻¹ (owing to a shallower depth of imposed radiative cooling), and 2) deep convective heating, as well as stratiform heating, is essential for the generation and maintenance of the slow modes.

Abstract

The evolution of total cloud cover and cloud types is composited across the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) using CloudSat data for June 2006–May 2010. Two approaches are used to define MJO phases: 1) the local phase is determined at each longitude and time from filtered outgoing longwave radiation, and 2) the global phase is defined using a popular real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index, which assigns the tropics to an MJO phase each day.

In terms of local phase, CloudSat results show a familiar evolution of cloud type predominance: in the growing stages shallow clouds coexist with deep, intense, but narrow convective systems. Widespread cloud coverage and rainfall appear during the active phases, becoming more anvil dominated with time, and finally suppressed conditions return. Results are compared to the convectively coupled Kelvin wave, which has a similar life cycle to the MJO. Convection in the MJO tends to be modulated more by moisture variations compared to the Kelvin wave.

In terms of global phases, wide deep precipitating, anvil, cumulus congestus, and altocumulus types exhibit similar eastward propagation from the Indian Ocean to the central Pacific, while the narrow deep precipitating type only propagates to the Maritime Continent. These propagating types also show coherent Western Hemisphere signals. Generally, negative Western Hemisphere anomalies occur when anomalies are positive over the Indian Ocean.

In both approaches, sampling leads to pictorial renderings of actual clouds across MJO phases. These mosaics provide an objective representation of the cloud field that was unavailable before CloudSat and serve as a reminder to the complex nature of the MJO’s multiscale features.

Abstract

Observational evidence of two extratropical pathways to forcing tropical convective disturbances is documented through a statistical analysis of satellite-derived OLR and ERA5 reanalysis. The forcing mechanism and the resulting disturbances are found to strongly depend on the structure of the background zonal wind. Although Rossby wave propagation is prohibited in easterlies, modeling studies have shown that extratropical forcing can still excite equatorial waves through resonance between the tropics and extratropics. Here this “remote” forcing pathway is investigated for the first time in the context of convectively coupled Kelvin waves over the tropical Pacific during northern summer. The extratropical forcing is manifested by eddy momentum flux convergence that arises when extratropical eddies propagate into the subtropics and encounter their critical line. This nonlinear forcing has similar wavenumbers and frequencies with Kelvin waves and excites them by projecting onto their meridional eigenstructure in zonal wind, as a form of resonance. This resonance is also evidenced by a momentum budget analysis, which reveals the nonlinear forcing term is essential for maintenance of the waves, while the remaining linear terms are essential for propagation. In contrast, the “local” pathway of extratropical forcing entails the presence of a westerly duct during northern winter that permits Rossby waves to propagate into the equatorial east Pacific, while precluding any sort of resonance with Kelvin waves due to Doppler shifting effects. The intruding disturbances primarily excite tropical “cloud plumes” through quasigeostrophic forcing, while maintaining their extratropical nature. This study demonstrates the multiple roles of the extratropics in forcing in tropical circulations and illuminates how tropical–extratropical interactions and extratropical basic states can provide be a source of predictability at the S2S time scale.