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Soni Yatheendradas and Sujay Kumar

Abstract

Satellite-based remotely sensed observations of snow cover fraction (SCF) can have data gaps in spatially distributed coverage from sensor and orbital limitations. We mitigate these limitations in the example fine-resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data by gap-filling using auxiliary 1-km datasets that either aid in downscaling from coarser-resolution (5 km) MODIS SCF wherever not fully covered by clouds, or else by themselves via regression wherever fully cloud covered. This study’s prototype predicts a 1-km version of the 500-m MOD10A1 SCF target. Due to noncollocatedness of spatial gaps even across input and auxiliary datasets, we consider a recent gap-agnostic advancement of partial convolution in computer vision for both training and predictive gap-filling. Partial convolution accommodates spatially consistent gaps across the input images, effectively implementing a two-dimensional masking. To overcome reduced usable data from noncollocated spatial gaps across inputs, we innovate a fully generalized three-dimensional masking in this partial convolution. This enables a valid output value at a pixel even if only a single valid input variable and its value exist in the neighborhood covered by the convolutional filter zone centered around that pixel. Thus, our gap-agnostic technique can use significantly more examples for training (∼67%) and prediction (∼100%), instead of only less than 10% for the previous partial convolution. We train an example simple three-layer legacy super-resolution convolutional neural network (SRCNN) to obtain downscaling and regression component performances that are better than baseline values of either climatology or MOD10C1 SCF as relevant. Our generalized partial convolution can enable multiple Earth science applications like downscaling, regression, classification, and segmentation that were hindered by data gaps.

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Patricia Lawston-Parker, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., and Sujay V. Kumar

Abstract

Accurately representing land–atmosphere (LA) interactions and coupling in NWP systems remains a challenge. New observations, incorporated into models via assimilation or calibration, hold the promise of improved forecast skill, but erroneous model coupling can hinder the benefits of such activities. To better understand model representation of coupled interactions and feedbacks, this study demonstrates a novel framework for coupled calibration of the single column model (SCM) capability of the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) system coupled to NASA’s Land Information System (LIS). The local land–atmosphere coupling (LoCo) process chain paradigm is used to assess the processes and connections revealed by calibration experiments. Two summer case studies in the U.S. Southern Great Plains are simulated in which LSM parameters are calibrated to diurnal observations of LoCo process chain components including 2-m temperature, 2-m humidity, surface fluxes (Bowen ratio), and PBL height. Results show a wide range of soil moisture and hydraulic parameter solutions depending on which LA variable (i.e., observation) is used for calibration, highlighting that improvement in either soil hydraulic parameters or initial soil moisture when not in tandem with the other can provide undesirable results. Overall, this work demonstrates that a process chain calibration approach can be used to assess LA connections, feedbacks, strengths, and deficiencies in coupled models, as well as quantify the potential impact of new sources of observations of land–PBL variables on coupled prediction.

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Joseph A. Santanello Jr., Patricia Lawston, Sujay Kumar, and Eli Dennis

Abstract

The role of soil moisture in NWP has gained more attention in recent years, as studies have demonstrated impacts of land surface states on ambient weather from diurnal to seasonal scales. However, soil moisture initialization approaches in coupled models remain quite diverse in terms of their complexity and observational roots, while assessment using bulk forecast statistics can be simplistic and misleading. In this study, a suite of soil moisture initialization approaches is used to generate short-term coupled forecasts over the U.S. Southern Great Plains using NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) and NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling systems. This includes a wide range of currently used initialization approaches, including soil moisture derived from “off the shelf” products such as atmospheric models and land data assimilation systems, high-resolution land surface model spinups, and satellite-based soil moisture products from SMAP. Results indicate that the spread across initialization approaches can be quite large in terms of soil moisture conditions and spatial resolution, and that SMAP performs well in terms of heterogeneity and temporal dynamics when compared against high-resolution land surface model and in situ soil moisture estimates. Case studies are analyzed using the local land–atmosphere coupling (LoCo) framework that relies on integrated assessment of soil moisture, surface flux, boundary layer, and ambient weather, with results highlighting the critical role of inherent model background biases. In addition, simultaneous assessment of land versus atmospheric initial conditions in an integrated, process-level fashion can help address the question of whether improvements in traditional NWP verification statistics are achieved for the right reasons.

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Joseph A. Santanello Jr., Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Sujay V. Kumar, Charles Alonge, and Wei-Kuo Tao

Abstract

Land–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture states. The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in numerical weather prediction and climate models remains largely unexplored and undiagnosed because of the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. Furthermore, uncoupled systems or experiments [e.g., the Project for the Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS)] may lead to inaccurate water and energy cycle process understanding by neglecting feedback processes such as PBL-top entrainment. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land–atmosphere coupling is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along with observations during field experiments in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) has been coupled to the Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. Within this framework, the coupling established by each pairing of the available PBL schemes in WRF with the LSMs in LIS is evaluated in terms of the diurnal temperature and humidity evolution in the mixed layer. The coevolution of these variables and the convective PBL are sensitive to and, in fact, integrative of the dominant processes that govern the PBL budget, which are synthesized through the use of mixing diagrams. Results show how the sensitivity of land–atmosphere interactions to the specific choice of PBL scheme and LSM varies across surface moisture regimes and can be quantified and evaluated against observations. As such, this methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land–atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS–WRF system, which will serve as a test bed for future experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

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Jinwoong Yoo, Joseph A. Santanello Jr., Marshall Shepherd, Sujay Kumar, Patricia Lawston, and Andrew M. Thomas

Abstract

An investigation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Kelvin in February 2018 over northeast Australia was conducted to understand the mechanisms of the brown ocean effect (BOE) and to develop a comprehensive analysis framework for landfalling TCs in the process. NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) coupled to the NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF) system was employed as the numerical model framework for 12 land/soil moisture perturbation experiments. Impacts of soil moisture and surface enthalpy flux conditions on TC Kelvin were investigated by closely evaluating simulated track and intensity, midlevel atmospheric thermodynamic properties, vertical wind shear, total precipitable water (TPW), and surface moisture flux. The results suggest that there were recognized differentiations among the sensitivity simulations as a result of land surface (e.g., soil moisture and texture) conditions. However, the intensification of TC Kelvin over land was more strongly related to atmospheric moisture advection and the diurnal cycle of solar radiation (i.e., radiative cooling) than to overall soil moisture conditions or surface fluxes. The analysis framework employed here for TC Kelvin can serve as a foundation to specifically quantify the factors governing the BOE. It also demonstrates that the BOE is not a binary influence (i.e., all or nothing), but instead operates in a continuum from largely to minimally influential such that it could be utilized to help improve prediction of inland effects for all landfalling TCs.

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Bailing Li, Matthew Rodell, Christa Peters-Lidard, Jessica Erlingis, Sujay Kumar, and David Mocko

Abstract

Estimating diffuse recharge of precipitation is fundamental to assessing groundwater sustainability. Diffuse recharge is also the process through which climate and climate change directly affect groundwater. In this study, we evaluated diffuse recharge over the conterminous United States simulated by a suite of land surface models (LSMs) that were forced using a common set of meteorological input data. Simulated annual recharge exhibited spatial patterns that were similar among the LSMs, with the highest values in the eastern United States and Pacific Northwest. However, the magnitudes of annual recharge varied significantly among the models and were associated with differences in simulated ET, runoff, and snow. Evaluation against two independent datasets did not answer the question of whether the ensemble mean performs the best, due to inconsistency between those datasets. The amplitude and timing of seasonal maximum recharge differed among the models, influenced strongly by model physics governing deep soil moisture drainage rates and, in cold regions, snowmelt. Evaluation using in situ soil moisture observations suggested that true recharge peaks 1–3 months later than simulated recharge, indicating systematic biases in simulating deep soil moisture. However, recharge from lateral flows and through preferential flows cannot be inferred from soil moisture data, and the seasonal cycle of simulated groundwater storage actually compared well with in situ groundwater observations. Long-term trends in recharge were not consistently correlated with either precipitation trends or temperature trends. This study highlights the need to employ dynamic flow models in LSMs, among other improvements, to enable more accurate simulation of recharge.

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Jonathan L. Case, Sujay V. Kumar, Jayanthi Srikishen, and Gary J. Jedlovec

Abstract

It is hypothesized that high-resolution, accurate representations of surface properties such as soil moisture and sea surface temperature are necessary to improve simulations of summertime pulse-type convective precipitation in high-resolution models. This paper presents model verification results of a case study period from June to August 2008 over the southeastern United States using the Weather Research and Forecasting numerical weather prediction model. Experimental simulations initialized with high-resolution land surface fields from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Land Information System (LIS) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are compared to a set of control simulations initialized with interpolated fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) 12-km North American Mesoscale model. The LIS land surface and MODIS SSTs provide a more detailed surface initialization at a resolution comparable to the 4-km model grid spacing. Soil moisture from the LIS spinup run is shown to respond better to the extreme rainfall of Tropical Storm Fay in August 2008 over the Florida peninsula. The LIS has slightly lower errors and higher anomaly correlations in the top soil layer but exhibits a stronger dry bias in the root zone. The model sensitivity to the alternative surface initial conditions is examined for a sample case, showing that the LIS–MODIS data substantially impact surface and boundary layer properties. The Developmental Testbed Center’s Meteorological Evaluation Tools package is employed to produce verification statistics, including traditional gridded precipitation verification and output statistics from the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) tool. The LIS–MODIS initialization is found to produce small improvements in the skill scores of 1-h accumulated precipitation during the forecast hours of the peak diurnal convective cycle. Because there is very little union in time and space between the forecast and observed precipitation systems, results from the MODE object verification are examined to relax the stringency of traditional gridpoint precipitation verification. The MODE results indicate that the LIS–MODIS-initialized model runs increase the 10 mm h−1 matched object areas (“hits”) while simultaneously decreasing the unmatched object areas (“misses” plus “false alarms”) during most of the peak convective forecast hours, with statistically significant improvements of up to 5%. Simulated 1-h precipitation objects in the LIS–MODIS runs more closely resemble the observed objects, particularly at higher accumulation thresholds. Despite the small improvements, however, the overall low verification scores indicate that much uncertainty still exists in simulating the processes responsible for airmass-type convective precipitation systems in convection-allowing models.

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Jonathan L. Case, William L. Crosson, Sujay V. Kumar, William M. Lapenta, and Christa D. Peters-Lidard

Abstract

This manuscript presents an assessment of daily regional simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model initialized with high-resolution land surface data from the NASA Land Information System (LIS) software versus a control WRF configuration that uses land surface data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Eta Model. The goal of this study is to investigate the potential benefits of using the LIS software to improve land surface initialization for regional NWP. Fifty-eight individual nested simulations were integrated for 24 h for both the control and experimental (LISWRF) configurations during May 2004 over Florida and the surrounding areas: 29 initialized at 0000 UTC and 29 initialized at 1200 UTC. The land surface initial conditions for the LISWRF runs came from an offline integration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) within LIS for two years prior to the beginning of the month-long study on an identical grid domain to the subsequent WRF simulations. Atmospheric variables used to force the offline Noah LSM integration were provided by the North American Land Data Assimilation System and Global Data Assimilation System gridded analyses.

The LISWRF soil states were generally cooler and drier than the NCEP Eta Model soil states during May 2004. Comparisons between the control and LISWRF runs for one event suggested that the LIS land surface initial conditions led to an improvement in the timing and evolution of a sea-breeze circulation over portions of northwestern Florida. Surface verification statistics for the entire month indicated that the LISWRF runs produced a more enhanced and accurate diurnal range in 2-m temperatures compared to the control as a result of the overall drier initial soil states, which resulted from a reduction in the nocturnal warm bias in conjunction with a reduction in the daytime cold bias. Daytime LISWRF 2-m dewpoints were correspondingly drier than the control dewpoints, again a manifestation of the drier initial soil states in LISWRF. The positive results of the LISWRF experiments help to illustrate the importance of initializing regional NWP models with high-quality land surface data generated at the same grid resolution.

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Sujay V. Kumar, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, David Mocko, and Yudong Tian

Abstract

The downwelling shortwave radiation on the earth’s land surface is affected by the terrain characteristics of slope and aspect. These adjustments, in turn, impact the evolution of snow over such terrain. This article presents a multiscale evaluation of the impact of terrain-based adjustments to incident shortwave radiation on snow simulations over two midlatitude regions using two versions of the Noah land surface model (LSM). The evaluation is performed by comparing the snow cover simulations against the 500-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover product. The model simulations are evaluated using categorical measures, such as the probability of detection of “yes” events (PODy), which measure the fraction of snow cover presence that was correctly simulated, and false alarm ratio (FAR), which measures the fraction of no-snow events that was incorrectly simulated. The results indicate that the terrain-based correction of radiation leads to systematic improvements in the snow cover estimates in both domains and in both LSM versions (with roughly 12% overall improvement in PODy and 5% improvement in FAR), with larger improvements observed during snow accumulation and melt periods. Increased contribution to PODy and FAR improvements is observed over the north- and south-facing slopes, when the overall improvements are stratified to the four cardinal aspect categories. A two-dimensional discrete Haar wavelet analysis for the two study areas indicates that the PODy improvements in snow cover estimation drop to below 10% at scales coarser than 16 km, whereas the FAR improvements are below 10% at scales coarser than 4 km.

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Sujay V. Kumar, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Kristi R. Arsenault, Augusto Getirana, David Mocko, and Yuqiong Liu

Abstract

Accurate determination of snow conditions is important for several water management applications, partly because of the significant influence of snowmelt on seasonal streamflow prediction. This article examines an approach using snow cover area (SCA) observations as snow detection constraints during the assimilation of snow depth retrievals from passive microwave sensors. Two different SCA products [the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)] are employed jointly with the snow depth retrievals from a variety of sensors for data assimilation in the Noah land surface model. The results indicate that the use of MODIS data is effective in obtaining added improvements (up to 6% improvement in aggregate RMSE) in snow depth fields compared to assimilating passive microwave data alone, whereas the impact of IMS data is small. The improvements in snow depth fields are also found to translate to small yet systematic improvements in streamflow estimates, especially over the western United States, the upper Missouri River, and parts of the Northeast and upper Mississippi River. This study thus demonstrates a simple approach for exploiting the information from SCA observations in data assimilation.

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