Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for

  • Author or Editor: Sven Wagner x
  • All content x
Clear All Modify Search
Andreas Wagner, Dominikus Heinzeller, Sven Wagner, Thomas Rummler, and Harald Kunstmann

Abstract

An increase in the spatial resolution of regional climate model simulations improves the representation of land surface characteristics and may allow the explicit calculation of important physical processes such as convection. The present study investigates further potential benefits with respect to precipitation, based on a small ensemble of high-resolution simulations with WRF with grid spacings up to 1 km. The skill of each experiment is evaluated regarding the temporal and spatial performance of the simulation of precipitation of one year over both a mountainous region in southwestern Germany and a mainly flat region in northern Germany. This study allows us to differentiate between the impact of grid spacing, topography, and convection parameterization. Furthermore, the performance of a state-of-the-art convection parameterization scheme in the gray zone of convection is evaluated against an explicit calculation of convection only. Our evaluation demonstrates the following: high-resolution simulations (5 and 1 km) are generally able to represent the diurnal cycle, structure, and intensity distribution of precipitation, when compared to observational datasets such as radar data and interpolated station data. The influence of the improved representation of the topography at higher resolution (1 km) becomes apparent in complex terrain, where the localization of precipitation maxima is more accurate, although these maxima are overestimated. In flat areas, differences in spatial evaluations arise between simulations with parameterized and explicitly calculated convection, whereas smaller grid spacings (1 km vs 5 km) show hardly any impact on precipitation results.

Full access
Joel Arnault, Sven Wagner, Thomas Rummler, Benjamin Fersch, Jan Bliefernicht, Sabine Andresen, and Harald Kunstmann

Abstract

The analysis of land–atmosphere feedbacks requires detailed representation of land processes in atmospheric models. The focus here is on runoff–infiltration partitioning and resolved overland flow. In the standard version of WRF, runoff–infiltration partitioning is described as a purely vertical process. In WRF-Hydro, runoff is enhanced with lateral water flows. The study region is the Sissili catchment (12 800 km2) in West Africa, and the study period is from March 2003 to February 2004. The WRF setup here includes an outer and inner domain at 10- and 2-km resolution covering the West Africa and Sissili regions, respectively. In this WRF-Hydro setup, the inner domain is coupled with a subgrid at 500-m resolution to compute overland and river flow. Model results are compared with TRMM precipitation, model tree ensemble (MTE) evapotranspiration, Climate Change Initiative (CCI) soil moisture, CRU temperature, and streamflow observation. The role of runoff–infiltration partitioning and resolved overland flow on land–atmosphere feedbacks is addressed with a sensitivity analysis of WRF results to the runoff–infiltration partitioning parameter and a comparison between WRF and WRF-Hydro results, respectively. In the outer domain, precipitation is sensitive to runoff–infiltration partitioning at the scale of the Sissili area (~100 × 100 km2), but not of area A (500 × 2500 km2). In the inner domain, where precipitation patterns are mainly prescribed by lateral boundary conditions, sensitivity is small, but additionally resolved overland flow here clearly increases infiltration and evapotranspiration at the beginning of the wet season when soils are still dry. The WRF-Hydro setup presented here shows potential for joint atmospheric and terrestrial water balance studies and reproduces observed daily discharge with a Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of 0.43.

Full access
Irena Ott, Doris Duethmann, Joachim Liebert, Peter Berg, Hendrik Feldmann, Juergen Ihringer, Harald Kunstmann, Bruno Merz, Gerd Schaedler, and Sven Wagner

Abstract

The impact of climate change on three small- to medium-sized river catchments (Ammer, Mulde, and Ruhr) in Germany is investigated for the near future (2021–50) following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. A 10-member ensemble of hydrological model (HM) simulations, based on two high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) driven by two global climate models (GCMs), with three realizations of ECHAM5 (E5) and one realization of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis version 3 (CCCma3; C3) is established. All GCM simulations are downscaled by the RCM Community Land Model (CLM), and one realization of E5 is downscaled also with the RCM Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). This concerted 7-km, high-resolution RCM ensemble provides a sound basis for runoff simulations of small catchments and is currently unique for Germany. The hydrology for each catchment is simulated in an overlapping scheme, with two of the three HMs used in the project. The resulting ensemble hence contains for each chain link (GCM–realization–RCM–HM) at least two members and allows the investigation of qualitative and limited quantitative indications of the existence and uncertainty range of the change signal. The ensemble spread in the climate change signal is large and varies with catchment and season, and the results show that most of the uncertainty of the change signal arises from the natural variability in winter and from the RCMs in summer.

Restricted access
Andreas Richter, Folkard Wittrock, Mark Weber, Steffen Beirle, Sven Kühl, Ulrich Platt, Thomas Wagner, Walburga Wilms-Grabe, and John P. Burrows

Abstract

Measurements from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) are used to study the chemical evolution of the stratosphere during the unusual 2002 winter in the Southern Hemisphere. The results show that chlorine activation as indicated by OClO columns was similar to previous years in the vortex until the major warming on 26 September 2002 after which it decreased rapidly. Similarly, NO2 columns were only slightly larger than in previous years before the warming, indicating strong denoxification and probably also denitrification. After the warming, very large NO2 columns were observed for a few days, which then decreased again as the vortex reestablished itself until the final warming. Ozone columns were much larger than in any previous year from September onward, mainly as a result of the unusual dynamical situation. Analysis of the global long-term time series of GOME measurements since 1996 provides a unique opportunity to set the austral winter 2002 into perspective. The GOME data reveal the large difference in variability of chlorine activation between the two hemispheres, whereas denoxification shows surprisingly little variation from year to year in both hemispheres. However, NO2 depletion in the Southern Hemisphere is usually sustained for about one month longer in the Antarctic stratosphere as a result of the stable vortex. Compared to the observations in the Northern Hemisphere, the austral winter 2002 was still stable and cold and had a high potential for chemical ozone destruction.

Full access
Joël Arnault, Thomas Rummler, Florian Baur, Sebastian Lerch, Sven Wagner, Benjamin Fersch, Zhenyu Zhang, Noah Kerandi, Christian Keil, and Harald Kunstmann

Abstract

Precipitation is affected by soil moisture spatial variability. However, this variability is not well represented in atmospheric models that do not consider soil moisture transport as a three-dimensional process. This study investigates the sensitivity of precipitation to the uncertainty in the representation of terrestrial water flow. The tools used for this investigation are the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and its hydrologically enhanced version, WRF-Hydro, applied over central Europe during April–October 2008. The model grid is convection permitting, with a horizontal spacing of 2.8 km. The WRF-Hydro subgrid employs a 280-m resolution to resolve lateral terrestrial water flow. A WRF/WRF-Hydro ensemble is constructed by modifying the parameter controlling the partitioning between surface runoff and infiltration and by varying the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. This ensemble represents terrestrial water flow uncertainty originating from the consideration of resolved lateral flow, terrestrial water flow uncertainty in the vertical direction, and turbulence parameterization uncertainty. The uncertainty of terrestrial water flow noticeably increases the normalized ensemble spread of daily precipitation where topography is moderate, surface flux spatial variability is high, and the weather regime is dominated by local processes. The adjusted continuous ranked probability score shows that the PBL uncertainty improves the skill of an ensemble subset in reproducing daily precipitation from the E-OBS observational product by 16%–20%. In comparison to WRF, WRF-Hydro improves this skill by 0.4%–0.7%. The reproduction of observed daily discharge with Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients generally above 0.3 demonstrates the potential of WRF-Hydro in hydrological science.

Full access