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- Author or Editor: Takeshi Yamazaki x
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Abstract
Atmospheric heating during the snowmelt season has been studied by means of data analysis and numerical model experiments. As a result of the data analysis, it was shown that in some examples the daytime air temperature rose above 0°C, even if the ground surface was covered by snow. Moreover, it was found that the number of days when the daytime air temperature rose above 0°C was large when the duration of sunshine increased. However, the increase was not related to the wind speed. Therefore, the air temperature over snow cover increases during the daytime if the sunshine is strong even under calm conditions (weak advection). On the other hand, the following result was obtained with the use of a local circulation model combined with a canopy heat balance model. The atmosphere was heated over the plains if forested areas existed around the plains, even if the plains surfaces were covered by snow without forests. An upward sensible heat flux was supplied from the forest canopy, resulting in atmospheric heating. It was concluded that the existence of forests was one of the main causes of atmospheric heating during the snowmelt season.
Abstract
Atmospheric heating during the snowmelt season has been studied by means of data analysis and numerical model experiments. As a result of the data analysis, it was shown that in some examples the daytime air temperature rose above 0°C, even if the ground surface was covered by snow. Moreover, it was found that the number of days when the daytime air temperature rose above 0°C was large when the duration of sunshine increased. However, the increase was not related to the wind speed. Therefore, the air temperature over snow cover increases during the daytime if the sunshine is strong even under calm conditions (weak advection). On the other hand, the following result was obtained with the use of a local circulation model combined with a canopy heat balance model. The atmosphere was heated over the plains if forested areas existed around the plains, even if the plains surfaces were covered by snow without forests. An upward sensible heat flux was supplied from the forest canopy, resulting in atmospheric heating. It was concluded that the existence of forests was one of the main causes of atmospheric heating during the snowmelt season.
Abstract
A snowmelt model based on a heat balance method has been developed. This model takes into account both the heat balance at the snow surface and that of the entire snow cover and simultaneously predicts the snow surface temperature and freezing depth. Observed or estimated incident radiation data are required for operation of the model.
Calculated amounts of snowmelt and snow surface temperatures were in agreement with those observed. Dependency of snowmelt on several parameters including maximum liquid water content, thermal conductivity and albedo of the snow was examined. It was found that as liquid water content or thermal conductivity increases, snowmelt decreases. Albedo is very influential in evaluating snowmelt.
Runoff from a basin having an area of 583 km2 was estimated using the present model, and was verified by the inflow data to a dam.
Abstract
A snowmelt model based on a heat balance method has been developed. This model takes into account both the heat balance at the snow surface and that of the entire snow cover and simultaneously predicts the snow surface temperature and freezing depth. Observed or estimated incident radiation data are required for operation of the model.
Calculated amounts of snowmelt and snow surface temperatures were in agreement with those observed. Dependency of snowmelt on several parameters including maximum liquid water content, thermal conductivity and albedo of the snow was examined. It was found that as liquid water content or thermal conductivity increases, snowmelt decreases. Albedo is very influential in evaluating snowmelt.
Runoff from a basin having an area of 583 km2 was estimated using the present model, and was verified by the inflow data to a dam.
Abstract
The variation of the summer monsoon onset over South Asia was investigated by using long-term data of the onset over Kerala, India, during the 64-yr period from 1948 to 2011. It was found that the onset over Kerala shows variation on a multidecadal scale. In early-onset years, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the northern Pacific Ocean was very similar to the negative Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The stationary wave train related to the negative PDO reaches into central Asia and generates a warm anomaly, thereby intensifying the land–sea thermal contrast, which promotes summer monsoon onset over South and Southeast Asia. The correlation between the onset date over Kerala and the PDO has strengthened since 1976. Analysis of zonal wind in the upper-level troposphere for the period 1958–2002 indicates that the change in the correlation is related to the change in the wave train path. The wave train propagating from the northern Pacific Ocean to western Russia could propagate eastward more easily in 1976–2002 than in 1958–75.
Abstract
The variation of the summer monsoon onset over South Asia was investigated by using long-term data of the onset over Kerala, India, during the 64-yr period from 1948 to 2011. It was found that the onset over Kerala shows variation on a multidecadal scale. In early-onset years, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the northern Pacific Ocean was very similar to the negative Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The stationary wave train related to the negative PDO reaches into central Asia and generates a warm anomaly, thereby intensifying the land–sea thermal contrast, which promotes summer monsoon onset over South and Southeast Asia. The correlation between the onset date over Kerala and the PDO has strengthened since 1976. Analysis of zonal wind in the upper-level troposphere for the period 1958–2002 indicates that the change in the correlation is related to the change in the wave train path. The wave train propagating from the northern Pacific Ocean to western Russia could propagate eastward more easily in 1976–2002 than in 1958–75.
Abstract
The upper-level troposphere over the western Tibetan Plateau, where the subtropical jet is located in summer, is a region of marked intraseasonal variability in geopotential height (GPH). This study investigates the influence of an anomaly in this region on the summer Asian monsoon. To this end, the GPH index is defined as the daily geopotential height anomaly at 200 hPa over the region based on 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. Composites with respect to strongly positive values of the GPH index are analyzed.
The results indicate that the temporary anomaly in the subtropical jet influences the monsoon over South Asia, Southeast Asia, and probably also over East Asia, because of two main processes: the eastward propagation of quasi-stationary Rossby wave anomalies at upper and lower levels along the subtropical jet, and a belt of strong westerlies at 15°N (Arabian Sea–Bay of Bengal–the Philippines).
The two mechanisms that underlie the lower-level Rossby wave anomaly are discussed here for the first time, based on the Rossby ray-path theory, as follows: 1) anomalous descent generated by the upper-level anticyclonic anomaly over Afghanistan and the western Tibetan Plateau causes the development of a heat low over the Thar Desert and neighboring areas, and 2) an anomalous southwesterly appears over the Arabian Sea, accompanied by the heat low, and interacts with the Western Ghats, resulting in an anticyclonic anomaly over the Indian subcontinent. The anomaly then starts to propagate eastward along a Rossby waveguide.
Abstract
The upper-level troposphere over the western Tibetan Plateau, where the subtropical jet is located in summer, is a region of marked intraseasonal variability in geopotential height (GPH). This study investigates the influence of an anomaly in this region on the summer Asian monsoon. To this end, the GPH index is defined as the daily geopotential height anomaly at 200 hPa over the region based on 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. Composites with respect to strongly positive values of the GPH index are analyzed.
The results indicate that the temporary anomaly in the subtropical jet influences the monsoon over South Asia, Southeast Asia, and probably also over East Asia, because of two main processes: the eastward propagation of quasi-stationary Rossby wave anomalies at upper and lower levels along the subtropical jet, and a belt of strong westerlies at 15°N (Arabian Sea–Bay of Bengal–the Philippines).
The two mechanisms that underlie the lower-level Rossby wave anomaly are discussed here for the first time, based on the Rossby ray-path theory, as follows: 1) anomalous descent generated by the upper-level anticyclonic anomaly over Afghanistan and the western Tibetan Plateau causes the development of a heat low over the Thar Desert and neighboring areas, and 2) an anomalous southwesterly appears over the Arabian Sea, accompanied by the heat low, and interacts with the Western Ghats, resulting in an anticyclonic anomaly over the Indian subcontinent. The anomaly then starts to propagate eastward along a Rossby waveguide.
Abstract
A heat-balance model having a canopy of one or two layers has been developed. The calculated fluxes using the present model were found to be in agreement with measurements from a rice paddy field, an orchard, and the calculated fluxes of a multilayer model. Although there was some difference in the calculated fluxes between the one- and two-layer model was the one-layer model was found to be sufficient when the dependency of the radiative ground-surface temperature on the viewing angle was not considered.
Abstract
A heat-balance model having a canopy of one or two layers has been developed. The calculated fluxes using the present model were found to be in agreement with measurements from a rice paddy field, an orchard, and the calculated fluxes of a multilayer model. Although there was some difference in the calculated fluxes between the one- and two-layer model was the one-layer model was found to be sufficient when the dependency of the radiative ground-surface temperature on the viewing angle was not considered.
Abstract
This study evaluated the effect of recent eastern Siberian land surface changes, such as water surface expansion, on water-energy fluxes and precipitation and focused on land surface parameters using a three-dimensional atmospheric model [the Japan Meteorological Agency Nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM)]. Five parameters were set (viz., surface albedo, evaporative efficiency, roughness length, heat capacity, and thermal conductivity), and a response of evaporation and precipitation was evaluated. Increased precipitation corresponded to 75% of the increased evaporation on interparameter average, indicating strong land–atmosphere coupling. Water-energy flux and precipitation responses to water surface expansion were evaluated by two methods: JMA-NHM and the parameter sensitivity method. The latter method used a linear combination of parameter sensitivity on the fluxes and precipitation and parameter changes with land surface change. JMA-NHM demonstrated an increase in evaporation and precipitation and a decrease in downward shortwave radiation with low-level cloud increases. The parameter sensitivity method gave the same order as JMA-NHM in the estimation. This method has minimal calculation cost; thus, water-energy flux and precipitation response with further water surface expansion and decreases in forest area were simulated, producing various land surface data. The enhancement of the precipitation response to evaporation was weak for further water surface expansion in the largely expanded water surface area; however, the ratio increased dramatically for the small water surface expanding area, indicating intense water cycle enhancement at the beginning of water surface expansion. Although grassland formation from forest has minimal impact, if incoming downward shortwave radiation were to increase because of the disappearance of the forest shading effect and the water surface formed by permafrost melting, the water cycle would be enhanced intensely.
Abstract
This study evaluated the effect of recent eastern Siberian land surface changes, such as water surface expansion, on water-energy fluxes and precipitation and focused on land surface parameters using a three-dimensional atmospheric model [the Japan Meteorological Agency Nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM)]. Five parameters were set (viz., surface albedo, evaporative efficiency, roughness length, heat capacity, and thermal conductivity), and a response of evaporation and precipitation was evaluated. Increased precipitation corresponded to 75% of the increased evaporation on interparameter average, indicating strong land–atmosphere coupling. Water-energy flux and precipitation responses to water surface expansion were evaluated by two methods: JMA-NHM and the parameter sensitivity method. The latter method used a linear combination of parameter sensitivity on the fluxes and precipitation and parameter changes with land surface change. JMA-NHM demonstrated an increase in evaporation and precipitation and a decrease in downward shortwave radiation with low-level cloud increases. The parameter sensitivity method gave the same order as JMA-NHM in the estimation. This method has minimal calculation cost; thus, water-energy flux and precipitation response with further water surface expansion and decreases in forest area were simulated, producing various land surface data. The enhancement of the precipitation response to evaporation was weak for further water surface expansion in the largely expanded water surface area; however, the ratio increased dramatically for the small water surface expanding area, indicating intense water cycle enhancement at the beginning of water surface expansion. Although grassland formation from forest has minimal impact, if incoming downward shortwave radiation were to increase because of the disappearance of the forest shading effect and the water surface formed by permafrost melting, the water cycle would be enhanced intensely.
Abstract
Water and energy exchanges are evaluated for two larch forests, one pine forest, and one grassland area in eastern Siberia near Yakutsk using a one-dimensional land surface model. Diurnal and seasonal variations of fluxes are simulated reasonably with general stomatal parameters at all sites. In the grassland site, the Bowen ratio is 0.2 in midsummer; it is smaller than that in forest sites (about 1). Sensitivity tests indicate that leaf area should be given accurately along with total plant area index including stem and branch areas. If both plant and leaf areas are given, the outline of seasonal heat balance can be simulated using the same stomatal parameters for forests and grassland sites with the model.
In the larch site on the left bank of the Lena River, although input precipitation varies widely from 82 to 236 mm year to year from 1998 through 2000, calculated total evapotranspiration varies only within a range of 50 mm around 238 mm in the larch site. Understory evapotranspiration contributes 37%–44% to total evapotranspiration; interception is 15%–21% of precipitation. Evapotranspiration normalized by potential evaporation is 0.37 for larch sites almost independent of year; for grassland it is 0.52. At some sites, evapotranspiration in the warm season exceeds precipitation, thereby implying either a warm-season depletion of water storage in the soil column (most likely melted water from the thawing of the soil) or a horizontal transport of subsurface melt water from neighboring areas, or both.
Abstract
Water and energy exchanges are evaluated for two larch forests, one pine forest, and one grassland area in eastern Siberia near Yakutsk using a one-dimensional land surface model. Diurnal and seasonal variations of fluxes are simulated reasonably with general stomatal parameters at all sites. In the grassland site, the Bowen ratio is 0.2 in midsummer; it is smaller than that in forest sites (about 1). Sensitivity tests indicate that leaf area should be given accurately along with total plant area index including stem and branch areas. If both plant and leaf areas are given, the outline of seasonal heat balance can be simulated using the same stomatal parameters for forests and grassland sites with the model.
In the larch site on the left bank of the Lena River, although input precipitation varies widely from 82 to 236 mm year to year from 1998 through 2000, calculated total evapotranspiration varies only within a range of 50 mm around 238 mm in the larch site. Understory evapotranspiration contributes 37%–44% to total evapotranspiration; interception is 15%–21% of precipitation. Evapotranspiration normalized by potential evaporation is 0.37 for larch sites almost independent of year; for grassland it is 0.52. At some sites, evapotranspiration in the warm season exceeds precipitation, thereby implying either a warm-season depletion of water storage in the soil column (most likely melted water from the thawing of the soil) or a horizontal transport of subsurface melt water from neighboring areas, or both.
Abstract
An ensemble-based forecast sensitivity to observations (EFSO) diagnosis has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model–ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system to estimate the impacts of specific observations from the quasi-operational global observing system on weekly short-range forecasts. It was examined whether EFSO reasonably approximates the impacts of a subset of observations from specific geographical locations for 6-h forecasts, and how long the 6-h observation impacts can be retained during the 7-day forecast period. The reference for these forecasts was obtained from 12 data-denial experiments in each of which a subset of three radiosonde observations launched from a geographical location was excluded. The 12 locations were selected from three latitudinal bands comprising (i) four Arctic regions, (ii) four midlatitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere, and (iii) four tropical regions during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015/16. The estimated winter-averaged EFSO-derived observation impacts well corresponded to the 6-h observation impacts obtained by the data denials and EFSO could reasonably estimate the observation impacts by the data denials on short-range (from 6 h to 2 day) forecasts. Furthermore, during the medium-range (4–7 day) forecasts, it was found that the Arctic observations tend to seed the broadest impacts and their short-range observation impacts could be projected to beneficial impacts in Arctic and midlatitude North American areas. The midlatitude area was located just downstream of dynamical propagation from the Arctic toward the midlatitudes. Results obtained by repeated Arctic data-denial experiments were found to be generally common to those from the non-repeated experiments.
Abstract
An ensemble-based forecast sensitivity to observations (EFSO) diagnosis has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model–ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system to estimate the impacts of specific observations from the quasi-operational global observing system on weekly short-range forecasts. It was examined whether EFSO reasonably approximates the impacts of a subset of observations from specific geographical locations for 6-h forecasts, and how long the 6-h observation impacts can be retained during the 7-day forecast period. The reference for these forecasts was obtained from 12 data-denial experiments in each of which a subset of three radiosonde observations launched from a geographical location was excluded. The 12 locations were selected from three latitudinal bands comprising (i) four Arctic regions, (ii) four midlatitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere, and (iii) four tropical regions during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015/16. The estimated winter-averaged EFSO-derived observation impacts well corresponded to the 6-h observation impacts obtained by the data denials and EFSO could reasonably estimate the observation impacts by the data denials on short-range (from 6 h to 2 day) forecasts. Furthermore, during the medium-range (4–7 day) forecasts, it was found that the Arctic observations tend to seed the broadest impacts and their short-range observation impacts could be projected to beneficial impacts in Arctic and midlatitude North American areas. The midlatitude area was located just downstream of dynamical propagation from the Arctic toward the midlatitudes. Results obtained by repeated Arctic data-denial experiments were found to be generally common to those from the non-repeated experiments.
Abstract
A physical vegetation model [the Two-Layer Model (2LM)] was applied to estimate the climate change impacts on rice leaf wetness (LW) as a potential indicator of rice blast occurrence. Japan was used as an example. Dynamically downscaled data at 20-km-mesh resolution from three global climate models (CCSM4, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) were utilized for present (1981–2000) and future (2081–2100) climates under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. To evaluate the performance of the 2LM, the LW and other meteorological variables were observed for 108 days during the summer of 2013 at three sites on the Pacific Ocean side of Japan. The derived correct estimation rate was 77.4%, which is similar to that observed in previous studies. Using the downscaled dataset, the changes in several precipitation indices were calculated. The regionally averaged ensemble mean precipitation increased by 6%, although large intermodel differences were found. By defining a wet day as any day in which the daily precipitation was ≥ 1 mm day−1, it was found that the precipitation frequency decreased by 6% and the precipitation intensity increased by 11% for the entire area. The leaf surface environment was estimated to be dry; leaf wetness, wet frequency, and wet times all decreased. It was found that a decrease in water trap opportunities due to reduced precipitation frequency was the primary contributor to the LW decrease. For blast fungus, an increased precipitation intensity was expected to enhance the washout effect on the leaf surface. In the present case, the infection risk was estimated to decrease for Japan.
Abstract
A physical vegetation model [the Two-Layer Model (2LM)] was applied to estimate the climate change impacts on rice leaf wetness (LW) as a potential indicator of rice blast occurrence. Japan was used as an example. Dynamically downscaled data at 20-km-mesh resolution from three global climate models (CCSM4, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) were utilized for present (1981–2000) and future (2081–2100) climates under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. To evaluate the performance of the 2LM, the LW and other meteorological variables were observed for 108 days during the summer of 2013 at three sites on the Pacific Ocean side of Japan. The derived correct estimation rate was 77.4%, which is similar to that observed in previous studies. Using the downscaled dataset, the changes in several precipitation indices were calculated. The regionally averaged ensemble mean precipitation increased by 6%, although large intermodel differences were found. By defining a wet day as any day in which the daily precipitation was ≥ 1 mm day−1, it was found that the precipitation frequency decreased by 6% and the precipitation intensity increased by 11% for the entire area. The leaf surface environment was estimated to be dry; leaf wetness, wet frequency, and wet times all decreased. It was found that a decrease in water trap opportunities due to reduced precipitation frequency was the primary contributor to the LW decrease. For blast fungus, an increased precipitation intensity was expected to enhance the washout effect on the leaf surface. In the present case, the infection risk was estimated to decrease for Japan.
ABSTRACT
Ensemble-based atmospheric data assimilation (DA) systems are sometimes afflicted with an underestimation of the ensemble spread near the surface caused by the use of identical boundary conditions for all ensemble members and the lack of atmosphere–ocean interaction. To overcome these problems, a new DA system has been developed by replacing an atmospheric GCM with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM, in which atmospheric observational data are assimilated every 6 h to update the atmospheric variables, whereas the oceanic variables are subject to no direct DA. Although SST suffers from the common biases among many coupled GCMs, two months of a retrospective analysis–forecast cycle reveals that the ensemble spreads of air temperature and specific humidity in the surface boundary layer are slightly increased and the forecast skill in the midtroposphere is rather improved by using the coupled DA system in comparison with the atmospheric DA system. In addition, surface atmospheric variables over the tropical Pacific have the basinwide horizontal correlation in ensemble space in the coupled DA system but not in the atmospheric DA system. This suggests the potential benefit of using a coupled GCM rather than an atmospheric GCM even for atmospheric reanalysis with an ensemble-based DA system.
ABSTRACT
Ensemble-based atmospheric data assimilation (DA) systems are sometimes afflicted with an underestimation of the ensemble spread near the surface caused by the use of identical boundary conditions for all ensemble members and the lack of atmosphere–ocean interaction. To overcome these problems, a new DA system has been developed by replacing an atmospheric GCM with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM, in which atmospheric observational data are assimilated every 6 h to update the atmospheric variables, whereas the oceanic variables are subject to no direct DA. Although SST suffers from the common biases among many coupled GCMs, two months of a retrospective analysis–forecast cycle reveals that the ensemble spreads of air temperature and specific humidity in the surface boundary layer are slightly increased and the forecast skill in the midtroposphere is rather improved by using the coupled DA system in comparison with the atmospheric DA system. In addition, surface atmospheric variables over the tropical Pacific have the basinwide horizontal correlation in ensemble space in the coupled DA system but not in the atmospheric DA system. This suggests the potential benefit of using a coupled GCM rather than an atmospheric GCM even for atmospheric reanalysis with an ensemble-based DA system.
