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Abstract
The origin of the summertime synoptic wave train in the western North Pacific is investigated with a multilevel, nonlinear baroclinic model. A realistic three-dimensional summer mean state is specified and eigenvectors are calculated by introducing small perturbation initially to the model. Numerical experiments indicate that the origin of the synoptic wave train may arise from instability of the summer mean flow in the presence of a convection–frictional convergence (CFC) feedback. In the lack of the CFC feedback, the summer mean flow supports only a least damped mode, characterized by a northwest–southeast-oriented wave train pattern with a zonal wavelength of 2500 km. In the presence of both the realistic summer mean flow and the CFC feedback, the model reproduces a fast growing mode, whose structure and propagation characters are similar to the observed.
Sensitivity experiments with different initial perturbation patterns indicate that the model solution is not sensitive to initial conditions. Further sensitivity experiments reveal that the basic-state vertical shear may affect the growth rate and propagation character of the wave train. An easterly shear may lead to a faster growth and northwestward phase propagation, whereas a westerly shear may favor a slower growth and southeastward phase propagation.
Abstract
The origin of the summertime synoptic wave train in the western North Pacific is investigated with a multilevel, nonlinear baroclinic model. A realistic three-dimensional summer mean state is specified and eigenvectors are calculated by introducing small perturbation initially to the model. Numerical experiments indicate that the origin of the synoptic wave train may arise from instability of the summer mean flow in the presence of a convection–frictional convergence (CFC) feedback. In the lack of the CFC feedback, the summer mean flow supports only a least damped mode, characterized by a northwest–southeast-oriented wave train pattern with a zonal wavelength of 2500 km. In the presence of both the realistic summer mean flow and the CFC feedback, the model reproduces a fast growing mode, whose structure and propagation characters are similar to the observed.
Sensitivity experiments with different initial perturbation patterns indicate that the model solution is not sensitive to initial conditions. Further sensitivity experiments reveal that the basic-state vertical shear may affect the growth rate and propagation character of the wave train. An easterly shear may lead to a faster growth and northwestward phase propagation, whereas a westerly shear may favor a slower growth and southeastward phase propagation.
Abstract
The interannual variability of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is investigated using observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and ERA-Interim data for the period of 1980–2012. It is found that the interannual variability of BSISO intensity is much stronger in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) than the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). A BSISO intensity index is defined based on a multivariate EOF analysis in TWP. It is found that strong BSISO years are associated with El Niño–like sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific, anomalous easterly shear, and enhanced background moisture condition in the region. Using a 2.5-layer atmospheric model with a specified idealized background mean state, the authors further examine the relative roles of background moisture and vertical shear fields in modulating the BSISO intensity. Sensitivity numerical experiments indicate that the background moisture change is most important in regulating the BSISO intensity, whereas the background vertical shear change also plays a role.
Abstract
The interannual variability of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is investigated using observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and ERA-Interim data for the period of 1980–2012. It is found that the interannual variability of BSISO intensity is much stronger in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) than the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). A BSISO intensity index is defined based on a multivariate EOF analysis in TWP. It is found that strong BSISO years are associated with El Niño–like sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific, anomalous easterly shear, and enhanced background moisture condition in the region. Using a 2.5-layer atmospheric model with a specified idealized background mean state, the authors further examine the relative roles of background moisture and vertical shear fields in modulating the BSISO intensity. Sensitivity numerical experiments indicate that the background moisture change is most important in regulating the BSISO intensity, whereas the background vertical shear change also plays a role.
Abstract
The structure and evolution characteristics of atmospheric entropy production associated with the climatologic monsoon onset and evolution were investigated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. The entropy balance equation contains two parts. The first part is internal entropy production that corresponds to natural dissipation. The second part is external entropy production that is associated with lower-boundary entropy supply. It is shown that the dissipation process represented by internal entropy production can be used to describe the thermal and dynamical structures of the monsoon. The thermal dissipation due to turbulent vertical diffusion and convection is highly correlated to precipitation. The dynamic dissipation due to wind stress becomes very strong over the Arabian Sea and southwestern part of India in boreal summer, and dynamic dissipation can describe the monsoon structure more clearly than variables such as wind shear. The correlation between surface entropy supply and internal entropy production is so large that the surface entropy supply can also be used to evaluate the monsoon. Over the desert region of Rajasthan, the dissipation is relatively weaker than its surroundings owing to descending large-scale eddy flow and a weak convective flux. The analysis of atmospheric entropy provides a new way to describe the monsoon development characteristics, which differs from those derived from a traditional analysis method.
Abstract
The structure and evolution characteristics of atmospheric entropy production associated with the climatologic monsoon onset and evolution were investigated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. The entropy balance equation contains two parts. The first part is internal entropy production that corresponds to natural dissipation. The second part is external entropy production that is associated with lower-boundary entropy supply. It is shown that the dissipation process represented by internal entropy production can be used to describe the thermal and dynamical structures of the monsoon. The thermal dissipation due to turbulent vertical diffusion and convection is highly correlated to precipitation. The dynamic dissipation due to wind stress becomes very strong over the Arabian Sea and southwestern part of India in boreal summer, and dynamic dissipation can describe the monsoon structure more clearly than variables such as wind shear. The correlation between surface entropy supply and internal entropy production is so large that the surface entropy supply can also be used to evaluate the monsoon. Over the desert region of Rajasthan, the dissipation is relatively weaker than its surroundings owing to descending large-scale eddy flow and a weak convective flux. The analysis of atmospheric entropy provides a new way to describe the monsoon development characteristics, which differs from those derived from a traditional analysis method.
Abstract
The statistical feature of occurrence of multiple tropical cyclone (MTC) events in the western North Pacific (WNP) is examined during summer (June–September) for the period of 1979–2006. The number of MTC events ranged from one to eight per year, experiencing a marked interannual variation. The spatial distance between the TCs associated with MTC events is mostly less than 3000 km, which accounts for 73% of total samples. The longest active phase of an MTC event lasts for nine days, and about 80% of the MTC events last for five days or less. A composite analysis of active and inactive MTC phases reveals that positive low-level (negative upper-level) vorticity anomalies and enhanced convection and midtropospheric relative humidity are the favorable large-scale conditions for MTC genesis. About 77% of the MTC events occurred in the region where either the atmospheric intraseasonal (25–70 day) oscillation (ISO) or biweekly (10–20 day) oscillation (BWO) is in a wet phase. The overall occurrence of the MTC events is greatly regulated by the combined large-scale impact of BWO, ISO, and the lower-frequency (90 days or longer) oscillation. On the interannual time scale, the MTC frequency is closely related to the seasonal mean anomalies of 850-hPa vorticity, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and 500-hPa humidity fields. The combined ISO and BWO activity is greatly strengthened (weakened) in the WNP region during the MTC active (inactive) years.
Abstract
The statistical feature of occurrence of multiple tropical cyclone (MTC) events in the western North Pacific (WNP) is examined during summer (June–September) for the period of 1979–2006. The number of MTC events ranged from one to eight per year, experiencing a marked interannual variation. The spatial distance between the TCs associated with MTC events is mostly less than 3000 km, which accounts for 73% of total samples. The longest active phase of an MTC event lasts for nine days, and about 80% of the MTC events last for five days or less. A composite analysis of active and inactive MTC phases reveals that positive low-level (negative upper-level) vorticity anomalies and enhanced convection and midtropospheric relative humidity are the favorable large-scale conditions for MTC genesis. About 77% of the MTC events occurred in the region where either the atmospheric intraseasonal (25–70 day) oscillation (ISO) or biweekly (10–20 day) oscillation (BWO) is in a wet phase. The overall occurrence of the MTC events is greatly regulated by the combined large-scale impact of BWO, ISO, and the lower-frequency (90 days or longer) oscillation. On the interannual time scale, the MTC frequency is closely related to the seasonal mean anomalies of 850-hPa vorticity, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and 500-hPa humidity fields. The combined ISO and BWO activity is greatly strengthened (weakened) in the WNP region during the MTC active (inactive) years.
Abstract
How sea surface temperature (SST) changes under global warming is critical for future climate projection because SST change affects atmospheric circulation and rainfall. Robust features derived from 17 models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) include a much greater warming in high latitudes than in the tropics, an El Niño–like warming over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, and a dipole pattern in the Indian Ocean. However, the physical mechanism responsible for formation of such warming patterns remains open.
A simple theoretical model is constructed to reveal the cause of the future warming patterns. The result shows that a much greater polar, rather than tropical, warming depends primarily on present-day mean SST and surface latent heat flux fields, and atmospheric longwave radiation feedback associated with cloud change further enhances this warming contrast. In the tropics, an El Niño–like warming over the Pacific and Atlantic arises from a similar process, while cloud feedback resulting from different cloud regimes between east and west ocean basins also plays a role. A dipole warming over the equatorial Indian Ocean is a response to weakened Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific.
Abstract
How sea surface temperature (SST) changes under global warming is critical for future climate projection because SST change affects atmospheric circulation and rainfall. Robust features derived from 17 models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) include a much greater warming in high latitudes than in the tropics, an El Niño–like warming over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, and a dipole pattern in the Indian Ocean. However, the physical mechanism responsible for formation of such warming patterns remains open.
A simple theoretical model is constructed to reveal the cause of the future warming patterns. The result shows that a much greater polar, rather than tropical, warming depends primarily on present-day mean SST and surface latent heat flux fields, and atmospheric longwave radiation feedback associated with cloud change further enhances this warming contrast. In the tropics, an El Niño–like warming over the Pacific and Atlantic arises from a similar process, while cloud feedback resulting from different cloud regimes between east and west ocean basins also plays a role. A dipole warming over the equatorial Indian Ocean is a response to weakened Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific.
Abstract
The present study reveals a close relationship between the leading mode of continental U.S. (CONUS) summer rainfall and the East Asian subtropical monsoon rainfall (viz., mei-yu in China, baiu in Japan, and changma in the Korean peninsula). The East Asian subtropical monsoon rainfall and the CONUS dipole rainfall patterns are connected by an upper-level Asia–North America (ANA) teleconnection. The Rossby wave energy propagates along the path of the westerly jet stream (WJS) from East Asia to North America, affecting the CONUS summer rainfall. Mechanisms through which East Asian summer monsoon heating influence North American rainfall are illustrated by idealized anomaly atmospheric general circulation model experiments. In boreal winter, because of the southward shift of the WJS, the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern can be excited by the tropical central/eastern Pacific heating associated with El Niño, affecting the rainfall over CONUS. In boreal summer, because the WJS is weaker and locates farther to the north, an equatorial heating anomaly cannot directly perturb the WJS. A perturbation heating over subtropical East Asia, however, can trigger an ANA pattern along the path of the WJS, affecting the rainfall over North America. The season-dependent teleconnection scenario illustrates that the predictability source of CONUS rainfall variability is different between winter and summer. While the PNA pattern generated by El Niño is critical for CONUS rainfall in northern winter, the CONUS dipole rainfall variation in boreal summer is mainly governed by the remote forcing over subtropical East Asia via the ANA teleconnection.
Abstract
The present study reveals a close relationship between the leading mode of continental U.S. (CONUS) summer rainfall and the East Asian subtropical monsoon rainfall (viz., mei-yu in China, baiu in Japan, and changma in the Korean peninsula). The East Asian subtropical monsoon rainfall and the CONUS dipole rainfall patterns are connected by an upper-level Asia–North America (ANA) teleconnection. The Rossby wave energy propagates along the path of the westerly jet stream (WJS) from East Asia to North America, affecting the CONUS summer rainfall. Mechanisms through which East Asian summer monsoon heating influence North American rainfall are illustrated by idealized anomaly atmospheric general circulation model experiments. In boreal winter, because of the southward shift of the WJS, the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern can be excited by the tropical central/eastern Pacific heating associated with El Niño, affecting the rainfall over CONUS. In boreal summer, because the WJS is weaker and locates farther to the north, an equatorial heating anomaly cannot directly perturb the WJS. A perturbation heating over subtropical East Asia, however, can trigger an ANA pattern along the path of the WJS, affecting the rainfall over North America. The season-dependent teleconnection scenario illustrates that the predictability source of CONUS rainfall variability is different between winter and summer. While the PNA pattern generated by El Niño is critical for CONUS rainfall in northern winter, the CONUS dipole rainfall variation in boreal summer is mainly governed by the remote forcing over subtropical East Asia via the ANA teleconnection.
Abstract
Analysis of observational data suggests two-way interactions between the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and synoptic-scale variability (SSV). On one hand, SSV is strongly modulated by the ISO; that is, a strengthened (weakened) SSV appears during the enhanced (suppressed) ISO phase. The northwest–southeast-oriented synoptic wave train is strengthened and well organized in the northwestern Pacific during the enhanced ISO phase but weakened during the suppressed ISO phase. On the other hand, SSV may exert an upscale feedback to ISO through the nonlinearly rectified surface latent heat flux (LHF). The maximum synoptic contribution exceeds 20%–30% of the total intraseasonal LHF over the tropical Indian Ocean, western Pacific, and northeastern Pacific. The nonlinearly rectified LHF leads the ISO convection and boundary layer specific humidity, and thus it may contribute to the propagation of the ISO in boreal summer through the preconditioning of the surface moisture and moist static energy ahead of the convection.
Abstract
Analysis of observational data suggests two-way interactions between the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and synoptic-scale variability (SSV). On one hand, SSV is strongly modulated by the ISO; that is, a strengthened (weakened) SSV appears during the enhanced (suppressed) ISO phase. The northwest–southeast-oriented synoptic wave train is strengthened and well organized in the northwestern Pacific during the enhanced ISO phase but weakened during the suppressed ISO phase. On the other hand, SSV may exert an upscale feedback to ISO through the nonlinearly rectified surface latent heat flux (LHF). The maximum synoptic contribution exceeds 20%–30% of the total intraseasonal LHF over the tropical Indian Ocean, western Pacific, and northeastern Pacific. The nonlinearly rectified LHF leads the ISO convection and boundary layer specific humidity, and thus it may contribute to the propagation of the ISO in boreal summer through the preconditioning of the surface moisture and moist static energy ahead of the convection.
Abstract
The geographic-dependence characteristics of the energy spectrum of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO; May–October) over the Indo–western Pacific region were analyzed using 25-yr (1979–2003) observational data. The BSISO energy spectrum distribution exhibits a distinctive regional characteristic. The stationary and eastward-propagating modes are most pronounced at the equator (5°S–5°N), while the westward-propagating modes are dominant in the off-equatorial region (10°–20°N). While the eastward intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) spectrum agglomerates on the 30–60-day period and zonal wavenumber 1, the westward mode covers wider spatial (wavenumber) and temporal (period) range. Along the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and South China Sea (SCS) latitudes, the dominant wavenumber 1 mode is the eastward (westward) propagation at the 30–60-day (10–20 day) period; for zonal wavenumber 2, the dominant mode is the westward propagation at both the 30–60-day and 10–20-day periods. Compared to the absolute amplitude of both zonal and meridional mode energy spectrum, northward propagation is the most predominant mode in boreal summer over the Indo–western Pacific regions. The strongest northward-propagating BSISO signal appears in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean.
The variation of BSISO differs significantly in the El Niño and La Niña developing and decaying phases. During the El Niño (La Niña) developing summer, the eastward propagation is enhanced (weakened) at the equator, while the northward propagation is also strengthened (weakened) over the western Pacific (east of 140°E). During the El Niño (La Niña) decaying summer, the eastward propagation weakens (strengthens) at the equator, opposite to that in the developing summer; the westward propagation off the equator and the northward propagation over SCS and the western Pacific are suppressed (enhanced). The amplitude of the BSISO variation is stronger in the decaying summer than that in the developing summer. This asymmetry in BSISO variations is primarily attributed to the asymmetry of the background mean flow change associated with the developing and decaying phases of ENSO.
Abstract
The geographic-dependence characteristics of the energy spectrum of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO; May–October) over the Indo–western Pacific region were analyzed using 25-yr (1979–2003) observational data. The BSISO energy spectrum distribution exhibits a distinctive regional characteristic. The stationary and eastward-propagating modes are most pronounced at the equator (5°S–5°N), while the westward-propagating modes are dominant in the off-equatorial region (10°–20°N). While the eastward intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) spectrum agglomerates on the 30–60-day period and zonal wavenumber 1, the westward mode covers wider spatial (wavenumber) and temporal (period) range. Along the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and South China Sea (SCS) latitudes, the dominant wavenumber 1 mode is the eastward (westward) propagation at the 30–60-day (10–20 day) period; for zonal wavenumber 2, the dominant mode is the westward propagation at both the 30–60-day and 10–20-day periods. Compared to the absolute amplitude of both zonal and meridional mode energy spectrum, northward propagation is the most predominant mode in boreal summer over the Indo–western Pacific regions. The strongest northward-propagating BSISO signal appears in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean.
The variation of BSISO differs significantly in the El Niño and La Niña developing and decaying phases. During the El Niño (La Niña) developing summer, the eastward propagation is enhanced (weakened) at the equator, while the northward propagation is also strengthened (weakened) over the western Pacific (east of 140°E). During the El Niño (La Niña) decaying summer, the eastward propagation weakens (strengthens) at the equator, opposite to that in the developing summer; the westward propagation off the equator and the northward propagation over SCS and the western Pacific are suppressed (enhanced). The amplitude of the BSISO variation is stronger in the decaying summer than that in the developing summer. This asymmetry in BSISO variations is primarily attributed to the asymmetry of the background mean flow change associated with the developing and decaying phases of ENSO.
Abstract
Numerical experiments with a 2.5-layer and a 2-level model are conducted to examine the mechanism for the planetary scale selection of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The strategy here is to examine the evolution of an initial perturbation that has a form of the equatorial Kelvin wave at zonal wavenumbers of 1 to 15. In the presence of a frictional boundary layer, the most unstable mode prefers a short wavelength under a linear heating; but with a nonlinear heating, the zonal wavenumber 1 grows fastest. This differs significantly from a model without the boundary layer, in which neither linear nor nonlinear heating leads to the long wave selection. Thus, the numerical simulations point out the crucial importance of the combined effect of the nonlinear heating and the frictional boundary layer in the MJO planetary scale selection.
The cause of this scale selection under the nonlinear heating is attributed to the distinctive phase speeds between the dry Kelvin wave and the wet Kelvin–Rossby wave couplet. The faster dry Kelvin wave triggered by a convective branch may catch up and suppress another convective branch, which travels ahead of it at the phase speed of the wet Kelvin–Rossby wave couplet if the distance between the two neighboring convective branches is smaller than a critical distance (about 16 000 km). The interference between the dry Kelvin wave and the wet Kelvin–Rossby wave couplet eventually dissipates and “filters out” shorter wavelength perturbations, leading to a longwave selection. The boundary layer plays an important role in destabilizing the MJO through frictional moisture convergences and in retaining the in-phase zonal wind–pressure structure.
Abstract
Numerical experiments with a 2.5-layer and a 2-level model are conducted to examine the mechanism for the planetary scale selection of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The strategy here is to examine the evolution of an initial perturbation that has a form of the equatorial Kelvin wave at zonal wavenumbers of 1 to 15. In the presence of a frictional boundary layer, the most unstable mode prefers a short wavelength under a linear heating; but with a nonlinear heating, the zonal wavenumber 1 grows fastest. This differs significantly from a model without the boundary layer, in which neither linear nor nonlinear heating leads to the long wave selection. Thus, the numerical simulations point out the crucial importance of the combined effect of the nonlinear heating and the frictional boundary layer in the MJO planetary scale selection.
The cause of this scale selection under the nonlinear heating is attributed to the distinctive phase speeds between the dry Kelvin wave and the wet Kelvin–Rossby wave couplet. The faster dry Kelvin wave triggered by a convective branch may catch up and suppress another convective branch, which travels ahead of it at the phase speed of the wet Kelvin–Rossby wave couplet if the distance between the two neighboring convective branches is smaller than a critical distance (about 16 000 km). The interference between the dry Kelvin wave and the wet Kelvin–Rossby wave couplet eventually dissipates and “filters out” shorter wavelength perturbations, leading to a longwave selection. The boundary layer plays an important role in destabilizing the MJO through frictional moisture convergences and in retaining the in-phase zonal wind–pressure structure.
Abstract
The cause of the southward shift of anomalous zonal wind in the central equatorial Pacific (CEP) during ENSO mature winter was investigated through observational analyses and numerical model experiments. Based on an antisymmetric zonal momentum budget diagnosis using daily ERA-Interim data, a two-step physical mechanism is proposed. The first step involves advection of the zonal wind anomaly by the climatological mean meridional wind. The second step involves the development of an antisymmetric mode in the CEP, which promotes a positive contribution to the observed zonal wind tendency by the pressure gradient and Coriolis forces. Two positive feedbacks are responsible for the growth of the antisymmetric mode. The first involves the moisture–convection–circulation feedback, and the second involves the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. General circulation model experiments further demonstrated that the boreal winter background state is critical in generating the southward shift, and a northward shift of the zonal wind anomaly is found when the same SST anomaly is specified in boreal summer background state.
Abstract
The cause of the southward shift of anomalous zonal wind in the central equatorial Pacific (CEP) during ENSO mature winter was investigated through observational analyses and numerical model experiments. Based on an antisymmetric zonal momentum budget diagnosis using daily ERA-Interim data, a two-step physical mechanism is proposed. The first step involves advection of the zonal wind anomaly by the climatological mean meridional wind. The second step involves the development of an antisymmetric mode in the CEP, which promotes a positive contribution to the observed zonal wind tendency by the pressure gradient and Coriolis forces. Two positive feedbacks are responsible for the growth of the antisymmetric mode. The first involves the moisture–convection–circulation feedback, and the second involves the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. General circulation model experiments further demonstrated that the boreal winter background state is critical in generating the southward shift, and a northward shift of the zonal wind anomaly is found when the same SST anomaly is specified in boreal summer background state.
