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Thomas Jung
,
Francisco Doblas-Reyes
,
Helge Goessling
,
Virginie Guemas
,
Cecilia Bitz
,
Carlo Buontempo
,
Rodrigo Caballero
,
Erko Jakobson
,
Johann Jungclaus
,
Michael Karcher
,
Torben Koenigk
,
Daniela Matei
,
James Overland
,
Thomas Spengler
, and
Shuting Yang
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EC-Earth

A Seamless Earth-System Prediction Approach in Action

Wilco Hazeleger
,
Camiel Severijns
,
Tido Semmler
,
Simona Ştefănescu
,
Shuting Yang
,
Xueli Wang
,
Klaus Wyser
,
Emanuel Dutra
,
José M. Baldasano
,
Richard Bintanja
,
Philippe Bougeault
,
Rodrigo Caballero
,
Annica M. L. Ekman
,
Jens H. Christensen
,
Bart van den Hurk
,
Pedro Jimenez
,
Colin Jones
,
Per Kållberg
,
Torben Koenigk
,
Ray McGrath
,
Pedro Miranda
,
Twan van Noije
,
Tim Palmer
,
José A. Parodi
,
Torben Schmith
,
Frank Selten
,
Trude Storelvmo
,
Andreas Sterl
,
Honoré Tapamo
,
Martin Vancoppenolle
,
Pedro Viterbo
, and
Ulrika Willén
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Jonathan Spinoni
,
Paulo Barbosa
,
Edoardo Bucchignani
,
John Cassano
,
Tereza Cavazos
,
Jens H. Christensen
,
Ole B. Christensen
,
Erika Coppola
,
Jason Evans
,
Beate Geyer
,
Filippo Giorgi
,
Panos Hadjinicolaou
,
Daniela Jacob
,
Jack Katzfey
,
Torben Koenigk
,
René Laprise
,
Christopher J. Lennard
,
M. Levent Kurnaz
,
Delei Li
,
Marta Llopart
,
Niall McCormick
,
Gustavo Naumann
,
Grigory Nikulin
,
Tugba Ozturk
,
Hans-Juergen Panitz
,
Rosmeri Porfirio da Rocha
,
Burkhardt Rockel
,
Silvina A. Solman
,
Jozef Syktus
,
Fredolin Tangang
,
Claas Teichmann
,
Robert Vautard
,
Jürgen V. Vogt
,
Katja Winger
,
George Zittis
, and
Alessandro Dosio

Abstract

Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44°) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, ~15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (~47% under RCP4.5, ~49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.

Open access
Leon Hermanson
,
Doug Smith
,
Melissa Seabrook
,
Roberto Bilbao
,
Francisco Doblas-Reyes
,
Etienne Tourigny
,
Vladimir Lapin
,
Viatcheslav V. Kharin
,
William J. Merryfield
,
Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso
,
Panos Athanasiadis
,
Dario Nicoli
,
Silvio Gualdi
,
Nick Dunstone
,
Rosie Eade
,
Adam Scaife
,
Mark Collier
,
Terence O’Kane
,
Vassili Kitsios
,
Paul Sandery
,
Klaus Pankatz
,
Barbara Früh
,
Holger Pohlmann
,
Wolfgang Müller
,
Takahito Kataoka
,
Hiroaki Tatebe
,
Masayoshi Ishii
,
Yukiko Imada
,
Tim Kruschke
,
Torben Koenigk
,
Mehdi Pasha Karami
,
Shuting Yang
,
Tian Tian
,
Liping Zhang
,
Tom Delworth
,
Xiaosong Yang
,
Fanrong Zeng
,
Yiguo Wang
,
François Counillon
,
Noel Keenlyside
,
Ingo Bethke
,
Judith Lean
,
Jürg Luterbacher
,
Rupa Kumar Kolli
, and
Arun Kumar

Abstract

As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential to inform current adaptation and increase resilience by filling the important gap between seasonal forecasts and climate projections. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recognized this and in 2017 established the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Predictions (shortened to “Lead Centre” below), which annually provides a large multimodel ensemble of predictions covering the next 5 years. This international collaboration produces a prediction that is more skillful and useful than any single center can achieve. One of the main outputs of the Lead Centre is the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (GADCU), a consensus forecast based on these predictions. This update includes maps showing key variables, discussion on forecast skill, and predictions of climate indices such as the global mean near-surface temperature and Atlantic multidecadal variability. it also estimates the probability of the global mean temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least 1 year in the next 5 years, which helps policy-makers understand how closely the world is approaching this goal of the Paris Agreement. This paper, written by the authors of the GADCU, introduces the GADCU, presents its key outputs, and briefly discusses its role in providing vital climate information for society now and in the future.

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