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Kentaroh Suzuki, Teruyuki Nakajima, Atusi Numaguti, Toshihiko Takemura, Kazuaki Kawamoto, and Akiko Higurashi

Abstract

The indirect effect of aerosols was simulated by a GCM for nonconvective water clouds and was compared with remote sensing results from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite-borne sensor for January, April, July, and October of 1990.

The simulated global distribution of cloud droplet radius showed a land–sea contrast and a characteristic feature along the coastal region similar to the AVHRR results, although cloud droplet radii from GCM calculations and AVHRR retrievals were different over tropical marine regions due to a lack of calculation of cloud–aerosol interaction for convective clouds in the present model and also due to a possible error in the satellite retrieval caused by cirrus and broken cloud contamination. The simulated dependence of the cloud properties on the column aerosol particle number was also consistent with the statistics obtained by the AVHRR remote sensing when a parameterization with the aerosol lifetime effect was incorporated in the simulation. The global average of the simulated liquid water path based on the parameterization with the aerosol lifetime effect showed an insignificant dependence on the aerosol particle number as a result of a global balance of the lifetime effect and the wash-out effect. This dependence was contrary to the results of simulations based on the Sundqvist's parameterization without aerosol lifetime effect; that is, the simulated cloud liquid water path showed a decreasing tendency with the aerosol particle number reflecting only the wash-out effect.

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Toshihiko Takemura, Teruyuki Nakajima, Oleg Dubovik, Brent N. Holben, and Stefan Kinne

Abstract

Global distributions of the aerosol optical thickness, Ångström exponent, and single-scattering albedo are simulated using an aerosol transport model coupled with an atmospheric general circulation model. All the main tropospheric aerosols are treated, that is, carbonaceous (organic and black carbons), sulfate, soil dust, and sea salt aerosols. The simulated total aerosol optical thickness, Ångström exponent, and single-scattering albedo for mixtures of four aerosol species are compared with observed values from both optical ground-based measurements and satellite remote sensing retrievals at dozens of locations including seasonal variations. The mean difference between the simulation and observations is found to be less than 30% for the optical thickness and less than 0.05 for the single-scattering albedo in most regions. The simulated single-scattering albedo over the Saharan region is, however, substantially smaller than the observation, though the standard optical constant of soil dust is used in this study. The radiative forcing by the direct effect of the main tropospheric aerosols is then estimated. The global annual mean values of the total direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic carbonaceous plus sulfate aerosols are calculated to be −0.19 and −0.75 W m−2 under whole-sky and clear-sky conditions at the tropopause, respectively.

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Hideo Shiogama, Seita Emori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tatsuya Nagashima, Tomoo Ogura, Toru Nozawa, and Toshihiko Takemura

Abstract

The precipitation sensitivity per 1 K of global warming in twenty-first-century climate projections is smaller in an emission scenario with larger greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosol emissions, according to the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2 (MIROC3.2) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. The authors examined the reasons for the precipitation sensitivity to emission scenarios by performing separated individual forcing runs under high and low emission scenarios. It was found that the dependency on emission scenario is mainly caused by differences in black and organic carbon aerosol forcing (the sum of which is cooling forcing) between the emission scenarios and that the precipitation is more sensitive to carbon aerosols than well-mixed greenhouse gases. They also investigated the reason for the larger precipitation sensitivity (larger magnitude of precipitation decrease per 1 K cooling of temperature) in the carbon aerosol runs. Surface dimming due to the direct and indirect effects of carbon aerosols effectively decreases evaporation and precipitation, which enhances the precipitation sensitivity in the carbon aerosol runs. In terms of the atmospheric moisture cycle, although changes of vertical circulation offset the effects of changes in the atmospheric moisture in both the carbon aerosol and greenhouse gas runs, the amplitude of vertical circulation change per 1 K temperature change is less in the carbon aerosol runs. Furthermore, the second indirect effect of organic carbon aerosol counteracts the influence of the vertical circulation change. These factors lead to suppression of changes in the moisture’s atmospheric residence time and increase of the precipitation sensitivity in the carbon aerosol runs.

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Takamichi Iguchi, Teruyuki Nakajima, Alexander P. Khain, Kazuo Saito, Toshihiko Takemura, Hajime Okamoto, Tomoaki Nishizawa, and Wei-Kuo Tao

Abstract

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations using the Japan Meteorological Agency Nonhydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM) are conducted for three precipitation events observed by shipborne or spaceborne W-band cloud radars. Spectral bin and single-moment bulk cloud microphysics schemes are employed separately for an intercomparative study. A radar product simulator that is compatible with both microphysics schemes is developed to enable a direct comparison between simulation and observation with respect to the equivalent radar reflectivity factor Ze, Doppler velocity (DV), and path-integrated attenuation (PIA). In general, the bin model simulation shows better agreement with the observed data than the bulk model simulation. The correction of the terminal fall velocities of snowflakes using those of hail further improves the result of the bin model simulation. The results indicate that there are substantial uncertainties in the mass–size and size–terminal fall velocity relations of snowflakes or in the calculation of terminal fall velocity of snow aloft. For the bulk microphysics, the overestimation of Ze is observed as a result of a significant predominance of snow over cloud ice due to substantial deposition growth directly to snow. The DV comparison shows that a correction for the fall velocity of hydrometeors considering a change of particle size should be introduced even in single-moment bulk cloud microphysics.

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Masahiro Watanabe, Tatsuo Suzuki, Ryouta O’ishi, Yoshiki Komuro, Shingo Watanabe, Seita Emori, Toshihiko Takemura, Minoru Chikira, Tomoo Ogura, Miho Sekiguchi, Kumiko Takata, Dai Yamazaki, Tokuta Yokohata, Toru Nozawa, Hiroyasu Hasumi, Hiroaki Tatebe, and Masahide Kimoto

Abstract

A new version of the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model cooperatively produced by the Japanese research community, known as the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), has recently been developed. A century-long control experiment was performed using the new version (MIROC5) with the standard resolution of the T85 atmosphere and 1° ocean models. The climatological mean state and variability are then compared with observations and those in a previous version (MIROC3.2) with two different resolutions (medres, hires), coarser and finer than the resolution of MIROC5.

A few aspects of the mean fields in MIROC5 are similar to or slightly worse than MIROC3.2, but otherwise the climatological features are considerably better. In particular, improvements are found in precipitation, zonal mean atmospheric fields, equatorial ocean subsurface fields, and the simulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The difference between MIROC5 and the previous model is larger than that between the two MIROC3.2 versions, indicating a greater effect of updating parameterization schemes on the model climate than increasing the model resolution. The mean cloud property obtained from the sophisticated prognostic schemes in MIROC5 shows good agreement with satellite measurements. MIROC5 reveals an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.6 K, which is lower than that in MIROC3.2 by 1 K. This is probably due to the negative feedback of low clouds to the increasing concentration of CO2, which is opposite to that in MIROC3.2.

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Theodore L. Anderson, Robert J. Charlson, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Mian Chin, Sundar A. Christopher, Jim Haywood, Yoram J. Kaufman, Stefan Kinne, John A. Ogren, Lorraine A. Remer, Toshihiko Takemura, Didier Tanré, Omar Torres, Charles R. Trepte, Bruce A. Wielicki, David M. Winker, and Hongbin Yu

This document outlines a practical strategy for achieving an observationally based quantification of direct climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols. The strategy involves a four-step program for shifting the current assumption-laden estimates to an increasingly empirical basis using satellite observations coordinated with suborbital remote and in situ measurements and with chemical transport models. Conceptually, the problem is framed as a need for complete global mapping of four parameters: clear-sky aerosol optical depth f f, radiative efficiency per unit optical depth δ, fine-mode fraction of optical depth f f, and the anthropogenic fraction of the fine mode f af . The first three parameters can be retrieved from satellites, but correlative, suborbital measurements are required for quantifying the aerosol properties that control E, for validating the retrieval of f f, and for partitioning fine-mode δ between natural and anthropogenic components. The satellite focus is on the “A-Train,” a constellation of six spacecraft that will fly in formation from about 2005 to 2008. Key satellite instruments for this report are the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) radiometers on Aqua, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) radiometer on Aura, the Polarization and Directionality of Earth's Reflectances (POLDER) polarimeter on the Polarization and Anistropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences Coupled with Observations from a Lidar (PARASOL), and the Cloud and Aerosol Lider with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) lidar on the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). This strategy is offered as an initial framework—subject to improvement over time—for scientists around the world to participate in the A-Train opportunity. It is a specific implementation of the Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON) program, presented earlier in this journal, which identified the integration of diverse data as the central challenge to progress in quantifying global-scale aerosol effects. By designing a strategy around this need for integration, we develop recommendations for both satellite data interpretation and correlative suborbital activities that represent, in many respects, departures from current practice.

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