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Toshio M. Chin, Tamay M. Özgökmen, and Arthur J. Mariano

Abstract

A recipe for a cubic B-spline-based solution for multivariate variational formulation of a data analysis and assimilation problem is provided. To represent a signal whose smallest wavelength is L, the spline scale must be at most L/2, or approximately the Nyquist wavelength. This spline scale defines the computational grid, which tends to be coarser than the typical grid required for finite-difference discretization and hence offers a significant advantage in computational efficiency. The geostrophy–thin-plate model is introduced and applied to a set of analysis problems to demonstrate the effectiveness of the solution technique.

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Toshio Michael Chin, Jorge Vazquez-Cuervo, and Edward M. Armstrong

Abstract

Nearest-neighbor gridding, binning, and bin-averaging procedures are performed routinely to map the irregularly sampled data onto a grid for data analysis and assimilation. Because these procedures are actually an interpolation procedure based on a piecewise constant function as the interpolation kernel, they tend to discard the subgrid locations of the data. Use of a locally continuous function for the interpolation kernel can preserve the subgrid location information in the data, at the cost of numerical sensitivity to the spatial variation in data density. This paper suggests a simple numerical procedure, based on a single correlation coefficient parameter, to eliminate such numerical sensitivity.

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Toshio M. Chin, Ralph F. Milliff, and William G. Large

Abstract

A numerical technique sensitive to both spectral and spatial aspects of sea surface wind measurements is introduced to transform the irregularly sampled satellite-based scatterometer data into regularly gridded wind fields. To capture the prevailing wavenumber characteristics (power-law dependence) of sea surface wind vector components, wavelet coefficients are computed from the scatterometer measurements along the satellite tracks. The statistics of the wavelet coefficients are then used to simulate high-resolution wind components over the off-track regions where scatterometer data are not available. Using this technique, daily wind fields with controlled spectral features have been produced by combining the low-wavenumber wind fields from ECMWF analyses with the high-wavenumber measurements from the ERS-1 scatterometer. The resulting surface wind fields thus reflect nearly all available measurements affecting surface wind, including the synoptic surface pressure. The new surface wind forces a basin-scale quasigeostrophic ocean model such that the average circulation and energetics are consistent with the previous studies, in which purely synthetic high-wavenumber wind forcing was used.

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Steven Marcus, Jinwon Kim, Toshio Chin, David Danielson, and Jayme Laber

Abstract

The effects of precipitable water vapor (PWV) retrievals from the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) on quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill are examined over two flood-prone regions of Southern California: Santa Barbara (SB) and Ventura County (VC). Two sets of QPFs are made, one using the initial water vapor field from the NCEP 40-km Eta initial analysis, and another in which the initial Eta water vapor field is modified by incorporating the PWV data from the SCIGN receivers. Lateral boundary data for the QPFs, as well as the hydrostatic component of the GPS zenith delay data, are estimated from the Eta analysis. Case studies of a winter storm on 2 February during the 1997/98 El Niño, and storms leading up to the La Conchita, California, landslide on 10 January 2005, show notably improved QPFs for the first 3–6 h with the addition of GPS PWV data. For a total of 47 winter storm forecasts between February 1998 and January 2005 the average absolute QPF improvement is small; however, QPF improvements exceed 5 mm in several underpredicted rainfall events, with GPS data also improving most cases with overpredicted rainfall. The GPS improvements are most significant (above or near the 2σ level) when the low-level winds off the coast of Southern California are from the southern (SW to SE) quadrant. To extend the useful forecast skill enhancement beyond six hours, however, additional sources of water vapor data over broader areas of the adjacent Pacific Ocean are needed.

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Chunxue Yang, Francesca Elisa Leonelli, Salvatore Marullo, Vincenzo Artale, Helen Beggs, Bruno Bunogiorno Nardelli, Toshio M. Chin, Vincenzo De Toma, Simon Good, Boyin Huang, Christopher J. Merchant, Toshiyuki Sakurai, Rosalia Santoleri, Jorge Vazquez-Cuervo, Huai-Min Zhang, and Andrea Pisano

Abstract

A joint effort between the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) has been dedicated to an intercomparison study of eight global gap-free Sea Surface Temperature (SST) products to assess their accurate representation of the SST relevant to climate analysis. In general, all SST products show consistent spatial patterns and temporal variability during the overlapping time period (2003-2018). The main differences between each product are located in western boundary current and Antarctic Circumpolar Current regions. Linear trends display consistent SST spatial patterns among all products and exhibit a strong warming trend from 2012 to 2018 with the Pacific Ocean basin as the main contributor. SST discrepancy between all SST products is very small compared to the significant warming trend. Spatial power spectral density shows that the interpolation into 1° spatial resolution has negligible impacts on our results. The global mean SST time series reveals larger differences among all SST products during the early period of the satellite era (1982-2002) when there were fewer observations, indicating that the observation frequency is the main constraint of the SST climatology. The maturity matrix scores, which present the maturity of each product in terms of documentation, storage, and dissemination but not the scientific quality, demonstrate that ESA-CCI and OSTIA SST are well documented for users' convenience. Improvements could be made for MGDSST and BoM SST. Finally, we have recommended that these SST products can be used for fundamental climate applications and climate studies (e.g. El Nino).

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