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J-L. Caccia, B. Benech, and V. Klaus

Abstract

The third intensive observation period (IOP3) of PYREX was a case of strong lee waves generated by a southerly wind crossing the Pyrenees chain. Upstream radiosounds and measurements obtained by aircraft along the chain transect and by constant volume balloons launched near the crest provided spatial characteristics of the lee wave at different times and heights. Values ranging from 7 to 14 km for the horizontal wavelength, and from 3 to 5 m s−1 for the maximum amplitude of the air vertical velocity, were observed. The lee wave horizontal extent, measured from the crest line, reached 30 to 55 km. In addition, two very high frequency stratosphere-troposphere (VHF ST) radars, one on the mountain mean axis and another downstream in the lee wave field, observed the temporal variations of the vertical profiles of the vertical velocity. The analysis of those observed variations and their vertical distribution allowed the stationarity of the wave to be studied. The lee wave was found to be far from stationary during its lifetime, but there were some periods, never longer than 1.5 h, during which the wave was quasi-stationary. Data obtained by the airborne instruments revealed that the wavelength, amplitude, and downstream wave extent underwent temporal variations. The time evolution of the vertical velocity profile observed by the radar below the wave field revealed that, most of the time, the lee wave was trapped, which was found to be consistent with radiosounding data. In addition, favorable comparison between airborne and radar data added further evidence that direct VHF ST radar measurement of the vertical air motion induced by lee waves is not seriously affected by beam tilting.

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V. Klaus, G. Chérel, P. Goupil, and N. Pénetier

Abstract

A method is presented to optimize the height coverage of virtual temperature profiles using the Radio Acoustic Sounding System (RASS) on a 45-MHz monostatic wind profiler. It has already been shown that the main limitation in the maximum height coverage for VHF radar is the effect of wind that shifts the acoustic wave fronts away from the sensing volume, preventing an efficient backscattering to the radar antenna. Excluding practical possibilities to steer the antenna beams toward the shifted acoustic wave fronts, as used, for example, on the middle- and upper-atmosphere (MU) radar, an alternative method consisting of deploying several acoustic sources around the instrument is considered. For this purpose, a simulation model is used to estimate the height coverage for various numbers and locations of sources according to the wind and temperature profile. The results show that a well-designed distribution around the wind profiler can significantly improve the range coverage of the RASS. This method has been tested not only for given meteorological situations but also for long-term climatological data. Practically, sufficient space of about 300 m is required around the radar antenna, particularly in the direction of the predominant wind.

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Mario Sempf, Klaus Dethloff, Dörthe Handorf, and Michael V. Kurgansky

Abstract

From a dynamical systems theory perspective, the mechanisms of atmospheric regime behavior in a barotropic model, a pseudobarotropic model, and a baroclinic three-level model, where all of them show quite realistic regimes, are unveiled. Along with this, the role played by multiple equilibria for the emergence of regimes in barotropic models is critically reexamined.

In the barotropic model, a sequence of bifurcations is observed, which leads to the merging of coexisting attractors and results in two pronounced regimes corresponding to high- and low-index flow. The pseudobarotropic model is constructed from the three-level model by introducing a strong internal friction between the levels and switching off the interfacial diabatic forcing, and it has essentially the same bifurcation properties and regimes as the truly barotropic model. A continuous metamorphosis between the pseudobarotropic and the original baroclinic three-level model is accomplished by a linear interpolation of parameters and forcing fields between these two models. Both local and global bifurcations occurring during this transition to baroclinicity are analyzed in detail, yielding two main results. First, almost all of the multiple steady states of the pseudobarotropic model owe their existence merely to the fact that the surface friction has generally to be chosen unphysically weak in barotropic models in order to obtain chaotic behavior. Second, the circulation regimes in both the pseudobarotropic model and the baroclinic three-level model are proven to emerge from the unification of multiple attractors, which coexist at intermediate strength of baroclinicity and correspond to low- or high-index flow configurations, respectively.

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Mario Sempf, Klaus Dethloff, Dörthe Handorf, and Michael V. Kurgansky

Abstract

Dynamical mechanisms of atmospheric regime behavior are investigated in the context of a quasigeostrophic three-level T21 model of the wintertime atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere. The model, driven by realistic orography and using a thermal forcing determined by a newly developed tuning procedure, is shown to possess a reasonable climatology and to simulate the Arctic Oscillation quite realistically. It exhibits pronounced internally generated interannual and decadal variability and, in particular, circulation regimes that agree fairly well with observed ones. Two known hypotheses about the origin of regime behavior, as it occurs in the model herein are addressed: (i) multiple equilibria and (ii) chaotic itinerancy between attractor ruins. The first hypothesis is falsified at very high probability, while the second is likely to be true.

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J-C. Boisse, V. Klaus, and J-P. Aubagnac

Abstract

This paper presents a new technique based on the wavelet transforms for removing airplane and other transitory echoes in strato–tropospheric (ST) radar measurements. This technique provides a time–frequency display of the time series, which is necessary for discriminating the nearly continuous wind signal from transitory pollution such as airplane echoes. Very encouraging results obtained with the VHF INSU/Météo ST radar located at CNRM/Toulouse have shown practical possibilities for a real-time implementation and for applications related to frequency domain interferometry.

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Kenneth J. Davis, Edward V. Browell, Sha Feng, Thomas Lauvaux, Michael D. Obland, Sandip Pal, Bianca C. Baier, David F. Baker, Ian T. Baker, Zachary R. Barkley, Kevin W. Bowman, Yu Yan Cui, A. Scott Denning, Joshua P. DiGangi, Jeremy T. Dobler, Alan Fried, Tobias Gerken, Klaus Keller, Bing Lin, Amin R. Nehrir, Caroline P. Normile, Christopher W. O’Dell, Lesley E. Ott, Anke Roiger, Andrew E. Schuh, Colm Sweeney, Yaxing Wei, Brad Weir, Ming Xue, and Christopher A. Williams

Abstract

The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT) – America NASA Earth Venture Suborbital Mission set out to improve regional atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) inversions by exploring the intersection of the strong GHG fluxes and vigorous atmospheric transport that occurs within the midlatitudes. Two research aircraft instrumented with remote and in situ sensors to measure GHG mole fractions, associated trace gases, and atmospheric state variables collected 1140.7 flight hours of research data, distributed across 305 individual aircraft sorties, coordinated within 121 research flight days, and spanning five, six-week seasonal flight campaigns in the central and eastern United States. Flights sampled 31 synoptic sequences, including fair weather and frontal conditions, at altitudes ranging from the atmospheric boundary layer to the upper free troposphere. The observations were complemented with global and regional GHG flux and transport model ensembles. We found that midlatitude weather systems contain large spatial gradients in GHG mole fractions, in patterns that were consistent as a function of season and altitude. We attribute these patterns to a combination of regional terrestrial fluxes and inflow from the continental boundaries. These observations, when segregated according to altitude and air mass, provide a variety of quantitative insights into the realism of regional CO2 and CH4 fluxes and atmospheric GHG transport realizations. The ACT-America data set and ensemble modeling methods provide benchmarks for the development of atmospheric inversion systems. As global and regional atmospheric inversions incorporate ACT-America’s findings and methods, we anticipate these systems will produce increasingly accurate and precise sub-continental GHG flux estimates.

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Thomas C. Peterson, Richard R. Heim Jr., Robert Hirsch, Dale P. Kaiser, Harold Brooks, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Randall M. Dole, Jason P. Giovannettone, Kristen Guirguis, Thomas R. Karl, Richard W. Katz, Kenneth Kunkel, Dennis Lettenmaier, Gregory J. McCabe, Christopher J. Paciorek, Karen R. Ryberg, Siegfried Schubert, Viviane B. S. Silva, Brooke C. Stewart, Aldo V. Vecchia, Gabriele Villarini, Russell S. Vose, John Walsh, Michael Wehner, David Wolock, Klaus Wolter, Connie A. Woodhouse, and Donald Wuebbles

Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the drought in the 1950s were the most significant twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the twelfth century exceeded anything in the twentieth century in both spatial extent and duration. The state of knowledge of the factors that cause heat waves, cold waves, floods, and drought to change is fairly good with heat waves being the best understood.

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Eric J. Jensen, Leonhard Pfister, David E. Jordan, Thaopaul V. Bui, Rei Ueyama, Hanwant B. Singh, Troy D. Thornberry, Andrew W. Rollins, Ru-Shan Gao, David W. Fahey, Karen H. Rosenlof, James W. Elkins, Glenn S. Diskin, Joshua P. DiGangi, R. Paul Lawson, Sarah Woods, Elliot L. Atlas, Maria A. Navarro Rodriguez, Steven C. Wofsy, Jasna Pittman, Charles G. Bardeen, Owen B. Toon, Bruce C. Kindel, Paul A. Newman, Matthew J. McGill, Dennis L. Hlavka, Leslie R. Lait, Mark R. Schoeberl, John W. Bergman, Henry B. Selkirk, M. Joan Alexander, Ji-Eun Kim, Boon H. Lim, Jochen Stutz, and Klaus Pfeilsticker

Abstract

The February–March 2014 deployment of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX) provided unique in situ measurements in the western Pacific tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Six flights were conducted from Guam with the long-range, high-altitude, unmanned Global Hawk aircraft. The ATTREX Global Hawk payload provided measurements of water vapor, meteorological conditions, cloud properties, tracer and chemical radical concentrations, and radiative fluxes. The campaign was partially coincident with the Convective Transport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) and the Coordinated Airborne Studies in the Tropics (CAST) airborne campaigns based in Guam using lower-altitude aircraft (see companion articles in this issue). The ATTREX dataset is being used for investigations of TTL cloud, transport, dynamical, and chemical processes, as well as for evaluation and improvement of global-model representations of TTL processes. The ATTREX data are publicly available online (at https://espoarchive.nasa.gov/).

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William J. Merryfield, Johanna Baehr, Lauriane Batté, Emily J. Becker, Amy H. Butler, Caio A. S. Coelho, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Laura Ferranti, Tatiana Ilynia, Arun Kumar, Wolfgang A. Müller, Michel Rixen, Andrew W. Robertson, Doug M. Smith, Yuhei Takaya, Matthias Tuma, Frederic Vitart, Christopher J. White, Mariano S. Alvarez, Constantin Ardilouze, Hannah Attard, Cory Baggett, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Asmerom F. Beraki, Partha S. Bhattacharjee, Roberto Bilbao, Felipe M. de Andrade, Michael J. DeFlorio, Leandro B. Díaz, Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Sam Grainger, Benjamin W. Green, Momme C. Hell, Johnna M. Infanti, Katharina Isensee, Takahito Kataoka, Ben P. Kirtman, Nicholas P. Klingaman, June-Yi Lee, Kirsten Mayer, Roseanna McKay, Jennifer V. Mecking, Douglas E. Miller, Nele Neddermann, Ching Ho Justin Ng, Albert Ossó, Klaus Pankatz, Simon Peatman, Kathy Pegion, Judith Perlwitz, G. Cristina Recalde-Coronel, Annika Reintges, Christoph Renkl, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Aaron Spring, Cristiana Stan, Y. Qiang Sun, Carly R. Tozer, Nicolas Vigaud, Steven Woolnough, and Stephen Yeager

Abstract

Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere–ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.

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Manfred Wendisch, Ulrich Pöschl, Meinrat O. Andreae, Luiz A. T. Machado, Rachel Albrecht, Hans Schlager, Daniel Rosenfeld, Scot T. Martin, Ahmed Abdelmonem, Armin Afchine, Alessandro C. Araùjo, Paulo Artaxo, Heinfried Aufmhoff, Henrique M. J. Barbosa, Stephan Borrmann, Ramon Braga, Bernhard Buchholz, Micael Amore Cecchini, Anja Costa, Joachim Curtius, Maximilian Dollner, Marcel Dorf, Volker Dreiling, Volker Ebert, André Ehrlich, Florian Ewald, Gilberto Fisch, Andreas Fix, Fabian Frank, Daniel Fütterer, Christopher Heckl, Fabian Heidelberg, Tilman Hüneke, Evelyn Jäkel, Emma Järvinen, Tina Jurkat, Sandra Kanter, Udo Kästner, Mareike Kenntner, Jürgen Kesselmeier, Thomas Klimach, Matthias Knecht, Rebecca Kohl, Tobias Kölling, Martina Krämer, Mira Krüger, Trismono Candra Krisna, Jost V. Lavric, Karla Longo, Christoph Mahnke, Antonio O. Manzi, Bernhard Mayer, Stephan Mertes, Andreas Minikin, Sergej Molleker, Steffen Münch, Björn Nillius, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Christopher Pöhlker, Anke Roiger, Diana Rose, Dagmar Rosenow, Daniel Sauer, Martin Schnaiter, Johannes Schneider, Christiane Schulz, Rodrigo A. F. de Souza, Antonio Spanu, Paul Stock, Daniel Vila, Christiane Voigt, Adrian Walser, David Walter, Ralf Weigel, Bernadett Weinzierl, Frank Werner, Marcia A. Yamasoe, Helmut Ziereis, Tobias Zinner, and Martin Zöger

Abstract

Between 1 September and 4 October 2014, a combined airborne and ground-based measurement campaign was conducted to study tropical deep convective clouds over the Brazilian Amazon rain forest. The new German research aircraft, High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO), a modified Gulfstream G550, and extensive ground-based instrumentation were deployed in and near Manaus (State of Amazonas). The campaign was part of the German–Brazilian Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation, and Radiation Interactions and Dynamics of Convective Cloud Systems–Cloud Processes of the Main Precipitation Systems in Brazil: A Contribution to Cloud Resolving Modeling and to the GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) (ACRIDICON– CHUVA) venture to quantify aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions and their thermodynamic, dynamic, and radiative effects by in situ and remote sensing measurements over Amazonia. The ACRIDICON–CHUVA field observations were carried out in cooperation with the second intensive operating period of Green Ocean Amazon 2014/15 (GoAmazon2014/5). In this paper we focus on the airborne data measured on HALO, which was equipped with about 30 in situ and remote sensing instruments for meteorological, trace gas, aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and spectral solar radiation measurements. Fourteen research flights with a total duration of 96 flight hours were performed. Five scientific topics were pursued: 1) cloud vertical evolution and life cycle (cloud profiling), 2) cloud processing of aerosol particles and trace gases (inflow and outflow), 3) satellite and radar validation (cloud products), 4) vertical transport and mixing (tracer experiment), and 5) cloud formation over forested/deforested areas. Data were collected in near-pristine atmospheric conditions and in environments polluted by biomass burning and urban emissions. The paper presents a general introduction of the ACRIDICON– CHUVA campaign (motivation and addressed research topics) and of HALO with its extensive instrument package, as well as a presentation of a few selected measurement results acquired during the flights for some selected scientific topics.

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