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Huixia He, Vitali E. Fioletov, David W. Tarasick, Thomas W. Mathews, and Craig Long

Abstract

Ground-based ultraviolet (UV) irradiance measurements by Brewer spectrophotometers at 10 sites across Canada are compared with UV index forecasts for the same locations from Environment Canada (EC) and NOAA. For the EC forecast validation, summertime (May–August) data for the period from 1996 to 2009 are used. Comparison with NOAA forecasts is made for the more limited period of May–August 2006 and 2007. Several statistical measures are used, including the mean and the standard deviation of differences, correlation coefficients, and the probability of detection and false-alarm rate for prediction of high (UV index of 6 or above) values. For most conditions, only modest differences are found between the two forecasting systems; that is, UV index forecasts reported in the United States and Canada for Canadian sites are compatible. In general, the physically based NOAA system, which started operation in 2005, performs better than the semiempirical EC model, developed in the mid-1990s. The difference in model performance is not large under clear-sky and light-cloud conditions, but the EC model underperforms relative to the NOAA model under heavy-cloud and rainy conditions. Both the EC and the NOAA forecast models tend to overestimate UV under clear-sky and light-cloud conditions. Under heavy-cloud and rainy conditions, the EC model underestimates UV values, with about 30% of all forecasts under these conditions being 2 or more units below observations. NOAA forecasts tend to overestimate UV index values under these conditions.

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J. K. Andersen, Liss M. Andreassen, Emily H. Baker, Thomas J. Ballinger, Logan T. Berner, Germar H. Bernhard, Uma S. Bhatt, Jarle W. Bjerke, Jason E. Box, L. Britt, R. Brown, David Burgess, John Cappelen, Hanne H. Christiansen, B. Decharme, C. Derksen, D. S. Drozdov, Howard E. Epstein, L. M. Farquharson, Sinead L. Farrell, Robert S. Fausto, Xavier Fettweis, Vitali E. Fioletov, Bruce C. Forbes, Gerald V. Frost, Sebastian Gerland, Scott J. Goetz, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Edward Hanna, Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Stefan Hendricks, Iolanda Ialongo, K. Isaksen, Bjørn Johnsen, L. Kaleschke, A. L. Kholodov, Seong-Joong Kim, Jack Kohler, Zachary Labe, Carol Ladd, Kaisa Lakkala, Mark J. Lara, Bryant Loomis, Bartłomiej Luks, K. Luojus, Matthew J. Macander, G. V. Malkova, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Gloria L. Manney, J. M. Marsh, Walt Meier, Twila A. Moon, Thomas Mote, L. Mudryk, F. J. Mueter, Rolf Müller, K. E. Nyland, Shad O’Neel, James E. Overland, Don Perovich, Gareth K. Phoenix, Martha K. Raynolds, C. H. Reijmer, Robert Ricker, Vladimir E. Romanovsky, E. A. G. Schuur, Martin Sharp, Nikolai I. Shiklomanov, C. J. P. P. Smeets, Sharon L. Smith, Dimitri A. Streletskiy, Marco Tedesco, Richard L. Thoman, J. T. Thorson, X. Tian-Kunze, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Hans Tømmervik, Mark Tschudi, Dirk van As, R. S. W. van de Wal, Donald A. Walker, John E. Walsh, Muyin Wang, Melinda Webster, Øyvind Winton, Gabriel J. Wolken, K. Wood, Bert Wouters, and S. Zador
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Matthew L. Druckenmiller, Twila A. Moon, Richard L. Thoman, Thomas J. Ballinger, Logan T. Berner, Germar H. Bernhard, Uma S. Bhatt, Jarle W. Bjerke, Jason E. Box, R. Brown, John Cappelen, Hanne H. Christiansen, B. Decharme, C. Derksen, Dmitry Divine, D. S. Drozdov, A. Elias Chereque, Howard E. Epstein, L. M. Farquharson, Sinead L. Farrell, Robert S. Fausto, Xavier Fettweis, Vitali E. Fioletov, Bruce C. Forbes, Gerald V. Frost, Emily Gargulinski, Sebastian Gerland, Scott J. Goetz, Z. Grabinski, Jens-Uwe Grooß, Christian Haas, Edward Hanna, Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Stefan Hendricks, Robert M. Holmes, Iolanda Ialongo, K. Isaksen, Piyush Jain, Bjørn Johnsen, L. Kaleschke, A. L. Kholodov, Seong-Joong Kim, Niels J. Korsgaard, Zachary Labe, Kaisa Lakkala, Mark J. Lara, Bryant Loomis, K. Luojus, Matthew J. Macander, G. V. Malkova, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Gloria L. Manney, James W. McClelland, Walter N. Meier, Thomas Mote, L. Mudryk, Rolf Müller, K. E. Nyland, James E. Overland, T. Park, Olga Pavlova, Don Perovich, Alek Petty, Gareth K. Phoenix, Martha K. Raynolds, C. H. Reijmer, Jacqueline Richter-Menge, Robert Ricker, Vladimir E. Romanovsky, Lindsay Scott, Hazel Shapiro, Alexander I. Shiklomanov, Nikolai I. Shiklomanov, C. J. P. P. Smeets, Sharon L. Smith, Amber Soja, Robert G. M. Spencer, Sandy Starkweather, Dimitri A. Streletskiy, Anya Suslova, Tove Svendby, Suzanne E. Tank, Marco Tedesco, X. Tian-Kunze, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Hans Tømmervik, Mikhail Tretiakov, Mark Tschudi, Sofia Vakhutinsky, Dirk van As, R. S. W. van de Wal, Sander Veraverbeke, Donald A. Walker, John E. Walsh, Muyin Wang, Melinda Webster, Øyvind Winton, K. Wood, Alison York, and Robert Ziel
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Robert J. H. Dunn, F. Aldred, Nadine Gobron, John B. Miller, Kate M. Willett, M. Ades, Robert Adler, Richard, P. Allan, Rob Allan, J. Anderson, Anthony Argüez, C. Arosio, John A. Augustine, C. Azorin-Molina, J. Barichivich, H. E. Beck, Andreas Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Angela Benedetti, David I. Berry, Stephen Blenkinsop, Olivier Bock, X. Bodin, Michael G. Bosilovich, Olivier Boucher, S. A. Buehler, B. Calmettes, Laura Carrea, Laura Castia, Hanne H. Christiansen, John R. Christy, E.-S. Chung, Melanie Coldewey-Egbers, Owen R. Cooper, Richard C. Cornes, Curt Covey, J.-F. Cretaux, M. Crotwell, Sean M. Davis, Richard A. M. de Jeu, Doug Degenstein, R. Delaloye, Larry Di Girolamo, Markus G. Donat, Wouter A. Dorigo, Imke Durre, Geoff S. Dutton, Gregory Duveiller, James W. Elkins, Vitali E. Fioletov, Johannes Flemming, Michael J. Foster, Stacey M. Frith, Lucien Froidevaux, J. Garforth, Matthew Gentry, S. K. Gupta, S. Hahn, Leopold Haimberger, Brad D. Hall, Ian Harris, D. L. Hemming, M. Hirschi, Shu-pen (Ben) Ho, F. Hrbacek, Daan Hubert, Dale F. Hurst, Antje Inness, K. Isaksen, Viju O. John, Philip D. Jones, Robert Junod, J. W. Kaiser, V. Kaufmann, A. Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Elizabeth C. Kent, R. Kidd, Hyungjun Kim, Z. Kipling, A. Koppa, B. M. Kraemer, D. P. Kratz, Xin Lan, Kathleen O. Lantz, D. Lavers, Norman G. Loeb, Diego Loyola, R. Madelon, Michael Mayer, M. F. McCabe, Tim R. McVicar, Carl A. Mears, Christopher J. Merchant, Diego G. Miralles, L. Moesinger, Stephen A. Montzka, Colin Morice, L. Mösinger, Jens Mühle, Julien P. Nicolas, Jeannette Noetzli, Ben Noll, J. O’Keefe, Tim J. Osborn, T. Park, A. J. Pasik, C. Pellet, Maury S. Pelto, S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, G. Petron, Coda Phillips, S. Po-Chedley, L. Polvani, W. Preimesberger, D. G. Rains, W. J. Randel, Nick A. Rayner, Samuel Rémy, L. Ricciardulli, A. D. Richardson, David A. Robinson, Matthew Rodell, N. J. Rodríguez-Fernández, K.H. Rosenlof, C. Roth, A. Rozanov, T. Rutishäuser, Ahira Sánchez-Lugo, P. Sawaengphokhai, T. Scanlon, Verena Schenzinger, R. W. Schlegel, S. Sharma, Lei Shi, Adrian J. Simmons, Carolina Siso, Sharon L. Smith, B. J. Soden, Viktoria Sofieva, T. H. Sparks, Paul W. Stackhouse Jr., Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Martin Stengel, Dimitri A. Streletskiy, Sunny Sun-Mack, P. Tans, S. J. Thackeray, E. Thibert, D. Tokuda, Kleareti Tourpali, Mari R. Tye, Ronald van der A, Robin van der Schalie, Gerard van der Schrier, M. van der Vliet, Guido R. van der Werf, A. Vance, Jean-Paul Vernier, Isaac J. Vimont, Holger Vömel, Russell S. Vose, Ray Wang, Markus Weber, David Wiese, Anne C. Wilber, Jeanette D. Wild, Takmeng Wong, R. Iestyn Woolway, Xinjia Zhou, Xungang Yin, Guangyu Zhao, Lin Zhao, Jerry R. Ziemke, Markus Ziese, and R. M. Zotta
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M. Ades, R. Adler, Rob Allan, R. P. Allan, J. Anderson, Anthony Argüez, C. Arosio, J. A. Augustine, C. Azorin-Molina, J. Barichivich, J. Barnes, H. E. Beck, Andreas Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Angela Benedetti, David I. Berry, Stephen Blenkinsop, Olivier. Bock, Michael G. Bosilovich, Olivier. Boucher, S. A. Buehler, Laura. Carrea, Hanne H. Christiansen, F. Chouza, John R. Christy, E.-S. Chung, Melanie Coldewey-Egbers, Gil P. Compo, Owen R. Cooper, Curt Covey, A. Crotwell, Sean M. Davis, Elvira de Eyto, Richard A. M de Jeu, B.V. VanderSat, Curtis L. DeGasperi, Doug Degenstein, Larry Di Girolamo, Martin T. Dokulil, Markus G. Donat, Wouter A. Dorigo, Imke Durre, Geoff S. Dutton, G. Duveiller, James W. Elkins, Vitali E. Fioletov, Johannes Flemming, Michael J. Foster, Richard A. Frey, Stacey M. Frith, Lucien Froidevaux, J. Garforth, S. K. Gupta, Leopold Haimberger, Brad D. Hall, Ian Harris, Andrew K Heidinger, D. L. Hemming, Shu-peng (Ben) Ho, Daan Hubert, Dale F. Hurst, I. Hüser, Antje Inness, K. Isaksen, Viju John, Philip D. Jones, J. W. Kaiser, S. Kelly, S. Khaykin, R. Kidd, Hyungiun Kim, Z. Kipling, B. M. Kraemer, D. P. Kratz, R. S. La Fuente, Xin Lan, Kathleen O. Lantz, T. Leblanc, Bailing Li, Norman G Loeb, Craig S. Long, Diego Loyola, Wlodzimierz Marszelewski, B. Martens, Linda May, Michael Mayer, M. F. McCabe, Tim R. McVicar, Carl A. Mears, W. Paul Menzel, Christopher J. Merchant, Ben R. Miller, Diego G. Miralles, Stephen A. Montzka, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, R. Myneni, Julien P. Nicolas, Jeannette Noetzli, Tim J. Osborn, T. Park, A. Pasik, Andrew M. Paterson, Mauri S. Pelto, S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, G. Pétron, C. Phillips, Bernard Pinty, S. Po-Chedley, L. Polvani, W. Preimesberger, M. Pulkkanen, W. J. Randel, Samuel Rémy, L. Ricciardulli, A. D. Richardson, L. Rieger, David A. Robinson, Matthew Rodell, Karen H. Rosenlof, Chris Roth, A. Rozanov, James A. Rusak, O. Rusanovskaya, T. Rutishäuser, Ahira Sánchez-Lugo, P. Sawaengphokhai, T. Scanlon, Verena Schenzinger, S. Geoffey Schladow, R. W Schlegel, Eawag Schmid, Martin, H. B. Selkirk, S. Sharma, Lei Shi, S. V. Shimaraeva, E. A. Silow, Adrian J. Simmons, C. A. Smith, Sharon L Smith, B. J. Soden, Viktoria Sofieva, T. H. Sparks, Paul W. Stackhouse Jr., Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Dimitri A. Streletskiy, G. Taha, Hagen Telg, S. J. Thackeray, M. A. Timofeyev, Kleareti Tourpali, Mari R. Tye, Ronald J. van der A, Robin, VanderSat B.V. van der Schalie, Gerard van der SchrierW. Paul, Guido R. van der Werf, Piet Verburg, Jean-Paul Vernier, Holger Vömel, Russell S. Vose, Ray Wang, Shohei G. Watanabe, Mark Weber, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, David Wiese, Anne C. Wilber, Jeanette D. Wild, Takmeng Wong, R. Iestyn Woolway, Xungang Yin, Lin Zhao, Guanguo Zhao, Xinjia Zhou, Jerry R. Ziemke, and Markus Ziese
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