Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for

  • Author or Editor: W. R. Weaver x
  • Refine by Access: All Content x
Clear All Modify Search
W. E. Meador
and
W. R. Weaver

Abstract

Existing two-stream approximations to radiative transfer theory for particulate media are shown to be represented by identical forms of coupled differential equations if the intensity is replaced by integrals of the intensity over hemispheres. One set of solutions thus suffices for all methods and provides convenient analytical comparisons. The equations also suggest modifications of the standard techniques so as to duplicate exact solutions for thin atmospheres and thus permit accurate determinations of the effects of typical aerosol layers. Numerical results for the plane albedos of plane-parallel atmospheres (single-scattering albedo = 0.8, 1.0; optical thickness = 0.25, 1, 4. 16; Henyey-Greenstein phase function with asymmetry factor 0.75) are given for conventional and modified Eddington approximations, conventional and modified two-point quadrature schemes, the hemispheric-constant method and the delta-function method, all for comparison with accurate discrete-ordinate solutions. A new two-stream approximation is introduced that reduces to the modified Eddington approximation in the limit of isotropic phase functions and to the exact solution in the limit of extreme anisotropic scattering. Comparisons of plane albedos and transmittances show the new method to be generally superior over a wide range of atmospheric conditions (including cloud and aerosol layers), especially in the case of nonconservative scattering.

Full access
M. Segal
,
J. R. Garratt
,
R. A. Pielke
,
W. E. Schreiber
,
A. Rodi
,
G. Kallos
, and
J. Weaver

Abstract

The present study provides a preliminary evaluation of mesoscale circulations forced by surface gradients of heating arising from irrigated areas adjacent to dry land, utilizing a combination of satellite, observational, and modeling approaches. The irrigated crop areas of northeast Colorado were chosen for the study. For the cases studied satellite surface infrared temperature data indicated a typical temperature contrast of approximately 10 K at noon, between the irrigated area and the adjacent dry land. Surface observations and aircraft measurements within the lower region of the atmospheric boundary layer indicated, in general, a significant temperature contrast and moisture difference, thereby implying a potential thermally driven circulation. The anticipated thermally induced flows, however, were reflected in the measurements only by modest changes in the wind speed and wind direction across the contrast location. It is suggested that the daytime, elevated, terrain-forced flow in the area, and the synoptic flow, combined to mask to varying degrees the thermally induced circulation due to the irrigated land-dry land area effect. Numerical model simulations which were carried out over the studied area support this hypothesis. In addition, the impact of the irrigated areas on the moisture within the boundary layer, as well as on potential convective cloud developments is discussed.

Full access
W.R. Moninger
,
J. Bullas
,
B. de Lorenzis
,
E. Ellison
,
J. Flueck
,
J.C. McLeod
,
C. Lusk
,
P.D. Lampru
,
R.S. Phillips
,
W.F. Roberts
,
R. Shaw
,
T.R. Stewart
,
J. Weaver
,
K.C. Young
, and
S.M. Zubrick

During the summer of 1989, the Forecast Systems Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored an evaluation of artificial-intelligence-based systems that forecast severe convective storms. The evaluation experiment, called Shootout-89, took place in Boulder, Colorado, and focused on storms over the northeastern Colorado foothills and plains.

Six systems participated in Shootout-89: three traditional expert systems, a hybrid system including a linear model augmented by a small expert system, an analogue-based system, and a system developed using methods from the cognitive science/judgment analysis tradition.

Each day of the exercise, the systems generated 2–9-h forecasts of the probabilities of occurrence of nonsignificant weather, significant weather, and severe weather in each of four regions in northeastern Colorado. A verification coordinator working at the Denver Weather Service Forecast Office gathered ground-truth data from a network of observers.

The systems were evaluated on several measures of forecast skill, on timeliness, on ease of learning, and on ease of use. They were generally easy to operate; however, they required substantially different levels of meteorological expertise on the part of their users, reflecting the various operational environments for which they had been designed. The systems varied in their statistical behavior, but on this difficult forecast problem, they generally showed a skill approximately equal to that of persistence forecasts and climatological forecasts.

Full access
R. J. Stouffer
,
J. Yin
,
J. M. Gregory
,
K. W. Dixon
,
M. J. Spelman
,
W. Hurlin
,
A. J. Weaver
,
M. Eby
,
G. M. Flato
,
H. Hasumi
,
A. Hu
,
J. H. Jungclaus
,
I. V. Kamenkovich
,
A. Levermann
,
M. Montoya
,
S. Murakami
,
S. Nawrath
,
A. Oka
,
W. R. Peltier
,
D. Y. Robitaille
,
A. Sokolov
,
G. Vettoretti
, and
S. L. Weber

Abstract

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate some weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.

Full access
P. Friedlingstein
,
P. Cox
,
R. Betts
,
L. Bopp
,
W. von Bloh
,
V. Brovkin
,
P. Cadule
,
S. Doney
,
M. Eby
,
I. Fung
,
G. Bala
,
J. John
,
C. Jones
,
F. Joos
,
T. Kato
,
M. Kawamiya
,
W. Knorr
,
K. Lindsay
,
H. D. Matthews
,
T. Raddatz
,
P. Rayner
,
C. Reick
,
E. Roeckner
,
K.-G. Schnitzler
,
R. Schnur
,
K. Strassmann
,
A. J. Weaver
,
C. Yoshikawa
, and
N. Zeng

Abstract

Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to isolate the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the climate feedback on the atmospheric CO2 concentration growth rate. There was unanimous agreement among the models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the earth system to absorb the anthropogenic carbon perturbation. A larger fraction of anthropogenic CO2 will stay airborne if climate change is accounted for. By the end of the twenty-first century, this additional CO2 varied between 20 and 200 ppm for the two extreme models, the majority of the models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO2 levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5°C.

All models simulated a negative sensitivity for both the land and the ocean carbon cycle to future climate. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight models attributed most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. Also, a majority of the models located the reduction of land carbon uptake in the Tropics. However, the attribution of the land sensitivity to changes in net primary productivity versus changes in respiration is still subject to debate; no consensus emerged among the models.

Full access
G.-K. Plattner
,
R. Knutti
,
F. Joos
,
T. F. Stocker
,
W. von Bloh
,
V. Brovkin
,
D. Cameron
,
E. Driesschaert
,
S. Dutkiewicz
,
M. Eby
,
N. R. Edwards
,
T. Fichefet
,
J. C. Hargreaves
,
C. D. Jones
,
M. F. Loutre
,
H. D. Matthews
,
A. Mouchet
,
S. A. Müller
,
S. Nawrath
,
A. Price
,
A. Sokolov
,
K. M. Strassmann
, and
A. J. Weaver

Abstract

Eight earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) are used to project climate change commitments for the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Simulations are run until the year 3000 a.d. and extend substantially farther into the future than conceptually similar simulations with atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) coupled to carbon cycle models. In this paper the following are investigated: 1) the climate change commitment in response to stabilized greenhouse gases and stabilized total radiative forcing, 2) the climate change commitment in response to earlier CO2 emissions, and 3) emission trajectories for profiles leading to the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 and their uncertainties due to carbon cycle processes. Results over the twenty-first century compare reasonably well with results from AOGCMs, and the suite of EMICs proves well suited to complement more complex models. Substantial climate change commitments for sea level rise and global mean surface temperature increase after a stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gases and radiative forcing in the year 2100 are identified. The additional warming by the year 3000 is 0.6–1.6 K for the low-CO2 IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 scenario and 1.3–2.2 K for the high-CO2 SRES A2 scenario. Correspondingly, the post-2100 thermal expansion commitment is 0.3–1.1 m for SRES B1 and 0.5–2.2 m for SRES A2. Sea level continues to rise due to thermal expansion for several centuries after CO2 stabilization. In contrast, surface temperature changes slow down after a century. The meridional overturning circulation is weakened in all EMICs, but recovers to nearly initial values in all but one of the models after centuries for the scenarios considered. Emissions during the twenty-first century continue to impact atmospheric CO2 and climate even at year 3000. All models find that most of the anthropogenic carbon emissions are eventually taken up by the ocean (49%–62%) in year 3000, and that a substantial fraction (15%–28%) is still airborne even 900 yr after carbon emissions have ceased. Future stabilization of atmospheric CO2 and climate change requires a substantial reduction of CO2 emissions below present levels in all EMICs. This reduction needs to be substantially larger if carbon cycle–climate feedbacks are accounted for or if terrestrial CO2 fertilization is not operating. Large differences among EMICs are identified in both the response to increasing atmospheric CO2 and the response to climate change. This highlights the need for improved representations of carbon cycle processes in these models apart from the sensitivity to climate change. Sensitivity simulations with one single EMIC indicate that both carbon cycle and climate sensitivity related uncertainties on projected allowable emissions are substantial.

Full access
Kenneth E. Kunkel
,
Thomas R. Karl
,
Harold Brooks
,
James Kossin
,
Jay H. Lawrimore
,
Derek Arndt
,
Lance Bosart
,
David Changnon
,
Susan L. Cutter
,
Nolan Doesken
,
Kerry Emanuel
,
Pavel Ya. Groisman
,
Richard W. Katz
,
Thomas Knutson
,
James O'Brien
,
Christopher J. Paciorek
,
Thomas C. Peterson
,
Kelly Redmond
,
David Robinson
,
Jeff Trapp
,
Russell Vose
,
Scott Weaver
,
Michael Wehner
,
Klaus Wolter
, and
Donald Wuebbles

The state of knowledge regarding trends and an understanding of their causes is presented for a specific subset of extreme weather and climate types. For severe convective storms (tornadoes, hailstorms, and severe thunderstorms), differences in time and space of practices of collecting reports of events make using the reporting database to detect trends extremely difficult. Overall, changes in the frequency of environments favorable for severe thunderstorms have not been statistically significant. For extreme precipitation, there is strong evidence for a nationally averaged upward trend in the frequency and intensity of events. The causes of the observed trends have not been determined with certainty, although there is evidence that increasing atmospheric water vapor may be one factor. For hurricanes and typhoons, robust detection of trends in Atlantic and western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) activity is significantly constrained by data heterogeneity and deficient quantification of internal variability. Attribution of past TC changes is further challenged by a lack of consensus on the physical link- ages between climate forcing and TC activity. As a result, attribution of trends to anthropogenic forcing remains controversial. For severe snowstorms and ice storms, the number of severe regional snowstorms that occurred since 1960 was more than twice that of the preceding 60 years. There are no significant multidecadal trends in the areal percentage of the contiguous United States impacted by extreme seasonal snowfall amounts since 1900. There is no distinguishable trend in the frequency of ice storms for the United States as a whole since 1950.

Full access
C. P. Weaver
,
X.-Z. Liang
,
J. Zhu
,
P. J. Adams
,
P. Amar
,
J. Avise
,
M. Caughey
,
J. Chen
,
R. C. Cohen
,
E. Cooter
,
J. P. Dawson
,
R. Gilliam
,
A. Gilliland
,
A. H. Goldstein
,
A. Grambsch
,
D. Grano
,
A. Guenther
,
W. I. Gustafson
,
R. A. Harley
,
S. He
,
B. Hemming
,
C. Hogrefe
,
H.-C. Huang
,
S. W. Hunt
,
D.J. Jacob
,
P. L. Kinney
,
K. Kunkel
,
J.-F. Lamarque
,
B. Lamb
,
N. K. Larkin
,
L. R. Leung
,
K.-J. Liao
,
J.-T. Lin
,
B. H. Lynn
,
K. Manomaiphiboon
,
C. Mass
,
D. McKenzie
,
L. J. Mickley
,
S. M. O'neill
,
C. Nolte
,
S. N. Pandis
,
P. N. Racherla
,
C. Rosenzweig
,
A. G. Russell
,
E. Salathé
,
A. L. Steiner
,
E. Tagaris
,
Z. Tao
,
S. Tonse
,
C. Wiedinmyer
,
A. Williams
,
D. A. Winner
,
J.-H. Woo
,
S. WU
, and
D. J. Wuebbles

This paper provides a synthesis of results that have emerged from recent modeling studies of the potential sensitivity of U.S. regional ozone (O3) concentrations to global climate change (ca. 2050). This research has been carried out under the auspices of an ongoing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) assessment effort to increase scientific understanding of the multiple complex interactions among climate, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality. The ultimate goal is to enhance the ability of air quality managers to consider global change in their decisions through improved characterization of the potential effects of global change on air quality, including O3 The results discussed here are interim, representing the first phase of the EPA assessment. The aim in this first phase was to consider the effects of climate change alone on air quality, without accompanying changes in anthropogenic emissions of precursor pollutants. Across all of the modeling experiments carried out by the different groups, simulated global climate change causes increases of a few to several parts per billion (ppb) in summertime mean maximum daily 8-h average O3 concentrations over substantial regions of the country. The different modeling experiments in general do not, however, simulate the same regional patterns of change. These differences seem to result largely from variations in the simulated patterns of changes in key meteorological drivers, such as temperature and surface insolation. How isoprene nitrate chemistry is represented in the different modeling systems is an additional critical factor in the simulated O3 response to climate change.

Full access