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Lu Anne Thompson
and
Wei Cheng

Abstract

An examination of model water masses in the North Pacific Ocean is performed in the Community Climate System version 3 (CCSM3) and its ocean-only counterpart. While the surface properties of the ocean are well represented in both simulations, biases in thermocline and intermediate-water masses exist that point to errors in both ocean model physics and the atmospheric component of the coupled model. The lack of North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) in both simulations as well as the overexpression of a too-fresh Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) is indicative of ocean model deficiencies. These properties reflect the difficulty of low-resolution ocean models to represent processes that control deep-water formation both in the Southern Ocean and in the Okhotsk Sea. In addition, as is typical of low-resolution ocean models, errors in the position of the Kuroshio, the North Pacific subtropical gyre western boundary current (WBC), impact the formation of the water masses that form the bulk of the thermocline as well as the properties of the NPIW. Biases that arise only in the coupled simulation include too-salty surface water in the subtropical North Pacific and too deep a thermocline, the source of which is the too-strong westerlies at midlatitudes. Biases in the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the southern Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) lead to the opposite hemispheric asymmetry in water mass structure when compared to observations. The atmospheric component of the coupled model acts to compound most ocean model biases.

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Qiaoling Ren
,
Wei Wei
,
Mengmeng Lu
, and
Song Yang

Abstract

The wintertime Middle East jet stream (MEJS) is an important upstream signal for the East Asian winter monsoon and the subsequent Asian summer monsoon. Thus, the maintenance and interannual variations of the MEJS as well as its similarities and differences with the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and the North American jet stream (NAJS) are studied dynamically using the geopotential tendency equation and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Analysis reveals that the MEJS is mainly maintained by tropical diabatic heating and the low-frequency transient eddy (TE) vorticity forcing. It is different from the EAJS, which is maintained by both tropical diabatic heating and high-frequency TE vorticity forcing, and the NAJS, which is mainly sustained by high-frequency TE vorticity forcing. Furthermore, while temperature advection plays a considerable role in the maintenance of EAJS and NAJS, it is less important for the MEJS. On interannual time scales, the meridional shift of the MEJS is related to low-frequency TE heating, while the variation of the jet’s intensity is associated with temperature advection. For both EAJS and NAJS, the interannual variations are mainly contributed by high-frequency TE vorticity forcing, although temperature advection also promotes their meridional shifts. These results suggest that whether or not the maintenance of the jet streams is related to tropical diabatic heating, their interannual variations are not directly induced by this forcing.

Significance Statement

The wintertime Middle East jet stream (MEJS) is a narrow and strong westerly wind belt over the Middle East whose variations in intensity and location can affect the Asian monsoon significantly. However, little effort has been devoted to investigating the MEJS. Thus, dynamical diagnosis and statistical analysis are applied in this study to understand the MEJS and its variability comprehensively. Analysis reveals that low-frequency transient eddies, which are the mobile atmospheric systems with a lifespan longer than 10 days, are important for both the maintenance and the interannual variability of the MEJS. This phenomenon is apparently different from the East Asian and North American jet streams, in which synoptic transient eddies (lifetime shorter than 10 days) play an essential role.

Open access
Wei Wei
,
Qiaoling Ren
,
Mengmeng Lu
, and
Song Yang

Abstract

Investigation into the interannual variation of the Middle East jet stream (MEJS) and its influence on the Asian monsoon indicates that the eastward extension of MEJS is closely related with a wetter and colder winter in southern China and a later onset of the subsequent Asian summer monsoon, compared with normal conditions. When the MEJS extends eastward, a significant barotropic anomalous anticyclone is located over the Arabian Sea (AS), associated with the southeastward-propagating wave train from Europe. Intense divergence in the southwest of the AS anomalous anticyclone favors more convection over the western tropical Indian Ocean, which excites an anomalous upper-level anticyclone to the north as a Rossby wave response, further intensifying the AS anticyclonic anomaly. This positive feedback loop maintains the AS anomalous anticyclone and results in the eastward extension of the MEJS. Accordingly, intense northeasterly anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea and the subtropical westerly anomalies bring abundant cold air from the mid- to higher latitudes to subtropical regions, resulting in a widespread cooling in subtropical Eurasia including southern China. Barotropic anomalous westerlies occur around the Tibetan Plateau in the south and deepen the India–Burma (now Myanmar) trough, favoring more water vapor transport from the Bay of Bengal to southern China. These wetter and colder conditions in subtropical Eurasia can persist from winter to spring, leading to the much later onset of the Asian summer monsoon. Therefore, the winter MEJS variability can be considered an important indicator for the Asian monsoon.

Significance Statement

Diabatic heating over the western tropical Indian Ocean exerts significant influence on the wintertime Middle East jet stream (MEJS), whose eastward extension leads to a wetter and colder winter in southern China and a later onset of the Asian summer monsoon. When the MEJS extends eastward, an anomalous anticyclone appears over the Arabian Sea and strengthened northeasterlies occur over the Mediterranean Sea. The westerly anomalies bring cold air from the high latitudes, resulting in cooling in subtropical Eurasia. Anomalous westerlies also occur around the Tibetan Plateau and deepen the India–Burma trough, favoring water vapor transport from the Bay of Bengal. These wetter and colder conditions persist from winter to spring, leading to later onset of the Asian summer monsoon.

Open access
Yuan Sun
,
Zhong Zhong
, and
Wei Lu

Abstract

The Advanced Research version of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) Model is used to examine the sensitivity of a simulated tropical cyclone (TC) track and the associated intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) to microphysical parameterization (MP) schemes. It is found that the simulated WPSH is sensitive to MP schemes only when TCs are active over the western North Pacific. WRF fails to capture TC tracks because of errors in the simulation of the WPSH intensity. The failed simulation of WPSH intensity and TC track can be attributed to the overestimated convection in the TC eyewall region, which is caused by inappropriate MP schemes. In other words, the MP affects the simulation of the TC activity, which influences the simulation of WPSH intensity and, thus, TC track. The feedback of the TC to WPSH plays a critical role in the model behavior of the simulation. Further analysis suggests that the overestimated convection in the TC eyewall results in excessive anvil clouds and showers in the middle and upper troposphere. As the simulated TC approaches the WPSH, the excessive anvil clouds extend far away from the TC center and reach the area of the WPSH. Because of the condensation of the anvil clouds’ outflows and showers, a huge amount of latent heat is released into the atmosphere and warms the air above the freezing level at about 500 hPa. Meanwhile, the evaporative (melting) process of hydrometers in the descending flow takes place below the freezing level and cools the air in the lower and middle troposphere. As a result, the simulated WPSH intensity is weakened, and the TC turns northward earlier than in observations.

Full access
Xian Chen
,
Zhong Zhong
, and
Wei Lu

Abstract

The NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset and the tropical cyclone (TC) best-track dataset from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo Typhoon Center were employed in the present study to investigate the possible linkage of the meridional displacement of the East Asian subtropical upper-level jet (EASJ) with the TC activity over the western North Pacific (WNP). Results indicate that summertime frequent TC activities would create the poleward shift of the EASJ through a stimulated Pacific–Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern as well as the changed large-scale meridional temperature gradient. On the contrary, in the inactive TC years, the EASJ is often located more southward than normal with an enhanced intensity. Therefore, TC activities over the WNP are closely related to the location and intensity of the EASJ in summer at the interannual time scale.

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Chenyu Lv
,
Riyu Lu
, and
Wei Chen

Abstract

This study identifies a significantly positive relationship between summer surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over two remote regions in the Eurasian continent and North America during the period 1979–2021 on the interannual time scale. The former region includes the East European Plain and the West Siberian Plain, and the latter region includes central and eastern North America. The regionally averaged summer SAT anomalies show a correlation coefficient of 0.66 between these two regions, which is significant at the 99% confidence level. This intercontinental SAT relationship can be explained by a wavelike pattern of circulation anomalies, which is the leading mode of upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in summer. Further analysis suggests that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Pacific and North Atlantic in the preceding spring, being coupled with the leading mode of atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Pacific–Atlantic sector, persist into summer and affect the SATs in the two remote regions, resulting in the intercontinental SAT connection.

Significance Statement

Summer surface air temperature (SAT) has profound effects on public health and agricultural production. Here we find a significantly positive relationship between interannual variations of summer SATs over two remote regions, one in the Eurasian continent and the other in North America. This intercontinental relationship in SATs can be explained as a result of atmosphere–ocean coupling over the Pacific and North Atlantic in the preceding spring. The result is likely to be a critical implication for the seasonal forecast of SAT variations over the two regions. In addition, the concurrence of higher or lower temperatures in these two regions may have impacts on global grain production, since these two regions include many major grain-producing areas in the world.

Restricted access
Yuan Sun
,
Zhong Zhong
,
Wei Lu
, and
Yijia Hu

Abstract

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model is employed to simulate Tropical Cyclone (TC) Megi (2010) using the Grell–Devenyi (GD) and Betts–Miller–Janjić (BMJ) cumulus parameterization schemes, respectively. The TC track can be well reproduced with the GD scheme, whereas it turns earlier than observations with the BMJ scheme. The physical mechanism behind different performances of the two cumulus parameterization schemes in the TC simulation is revealed. The failure in the simulation of the TC track with the BMJ scheme is attributed to the overestimation of anvil clouds, which extend far away from the TC center and reach the area of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). Such extensive anvil clouds, which result from the excessively deep convection in the eyewall, eventually lead to a large bias in microphysics latent heating. The warming of the upper troposphere due to the condensation in anvil clouds coupled with the cooling of the lower troposphere due to precipitation evaporation cause a weakening of the WPSH, which in turn is favorable for the early recurvature of Megi.

Full access
Sen Li
,
Zhong Zhong
,
Weidong Guo
, and
Wei Lu

Abstract

On the basis of the similarity theory of the atmospheric surface layer and the mass conservation principle, a new scheme using a variational method is developed to estimate the surface momentum and sensible and latent heat fluxes. In this scheme, the mass conservation is introduced into the cost function as a weak physical constraint, which leads to an overdetermined system. For the variational method with mass conservation constraint, only the conventional meteorological observational data are taken into account. Data collected in the Yellow River Source Region Climate and Environment Observation and Research Station at Maqu, China, during 11–25 August 2010 are used to test this new scheme. Results indicate that this scheme is more reliable and accurate than both the flux-profile method and the variational method without mass conservation constraint. In addition, the effect of the weights in the cost function is examined. Sensitivity tests show that the fluxes estimated by the proposed scheme are insensitive to the stability functions explored in the cost function and measurement errors.

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Bei-Wei Lu
,
Lionel Pandolfo
, and
Kevin Hamilton

Abstract

A nonlinear principal component analysis (NLPCA) is applied to monthly mean zonal wind observations from January 1956 through December 2007 taken at seven pressure levels between 10 and 70 hPa in the stratosphere near the equator to represent the well-known quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and investigate its variability and structure. The NLPCA is conducted using a simplified two–hidden layer feed-forward neural network that alleviates the problems of nonuniqueness of solutions and data overfitting that plague nonlinear techniques of principal component analysis. The QBO is used as a test bed for the new compact model of NLPCA.

The two nonlinear principal components of the dataset of the equatorial stratospheric zonal winds, determined by the compact NLPCA, offer a clear picture of the QBO. In particular, their structure shows that the QBO phase consists of a predominant 28.3-month cycle that is modulated by an 11-yr cycle as well as by longer cycles. The differences in wind variability between westerly and easterly regimes and between Northern Hemisphere winter and summer seasons and the tendency for a seasonal synchronization of the QBO phases are well captured.

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Zhong Zhong
,
Wei Lu
,
Shuai Song
, and
Yaocun Zhang

Abstract

Based on the similarity theory of the atmospheric surface layer and the flux conservation and mass conservation laws, a new scheme for determining the effective roughness length (ERL) and the effective zero-plane displacement (EZPD) for a heterogeneous terrain is proposed. The test for a two-category system case shows that the ERL (EZPD) is larger (smaller) than the area-weighted logarithmic (linear) averaged one, whereas differences between the new ERL/EZPD and their average values are increased with roughness ratio and rough-portion zero-plane displacement (RZPD) in the grid square. Though the ERL and EZPD show some dependence on atmospheric stability, they can be treated as constants in the land surface models unless the seasonal variation must be taken into account. This is due to the fact that the error percentage of the effective drag coefficients, which are dependent on the ERL and EZPD, is less than 2% under all stability conditions. Moreover, the dynamical effects of the underlying surface can be represented jointly by the ERL and the EZPD, either for a heterogeneous terrain or for a homogeneous terrain with high obstacles. The enhancement effect of the roughness ratio on ERL and EZPD is magnified by the RZPD. However, the ratio of rough area over smooth area, where the maximum ratio of ERL over the area-weighted mean as well as the maximum difference between EZPD and area-weighted mean occurs, is dependent on the roughness ratio but independent of the RZPD. The ERLs computed by this new model are also compared with other schemes and large-eddy simulation, where the effect of RZPD is not considered.

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