Abstract

Sea level observations in the equatorial Indian Ocean show a dominant spectral peak at 90 days and secondary peaks at 30–60 days over an intraseasonal period (20–90 days). A detailed investigation of the origins and dynamics of these variations is carried out using an ocean general circulation model, namely, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Two parallel experiments are performed in the tropical Indian Ocean basin for the period 1988–2001: one is forced by NCEP 3-day mean forcing fields together with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) pentad precipitation, and the other is forced by monthly mean fields. To help to understand the role played by the wind-driven equatorial wave dynamics, a linear continuously stratified ocean model is also used. Both the observed and modeled 90-day sea level anomaly fields and HYCOM surface current clearly show equatorial Kelvin and first-meridional-mode Rossby wave structures that are forced by the 90-day winds. The wind amplitude at the 90-day period, however, is weaker than that for the 30–60-day period, suggesting that the equatorial Indian Ocean selectively responds to the 90-day winds. This selective response arises mainly from the resonant excitation of the second-baroclinic-mode (n = 2) waves by the 90-day winds. In this case, Rossby waves reflected from the eastern ocean boundary enhance the directly forced response in the ocean interior, strengthening the 90-day peak. In addition, the directly forced response increases monotonically with the increase of forcing period, contributing to the larger variances of currents and sea level at 90 days. Two factors account for this monotonic increase in directly forced response. First, at lower frequency, both Rossby and Kelvin waves associated with the low-order baroclinic modes have longer wavelengths, which are more efficiently excited by the larger-scale winds. Second, responses of the high-order modes directly follow the local winds, and their amplitudes are proportional to both forcing period and wind strength. Although most energy is surface trapped, there is a significant amount that propagates through the pycnocline into the deep ocean. The dominance of the 90-day peak occurs not only at the surface but also in the deeper layers down to 600 m. In the deeper ocean, both the directly forced response and reflected waves associated with the first two baroclinic modes contribute to the 90-day variation. Spectra of the observed sea surface temperature (SST) also show a 90-day peak, likely a result of the selective response of the equatorial Indian Ocean at the 90-day period. Near the surface, the spectral peaks of currents and sea level at the 30–60-day period are directly forced by winds that peak at 30–60 days. In the deeper layers, both directly forced and reflected waves associated with the first two baroclinic modes contribute. Oceanic instabilities can have significant contributions only near the western boundary and near 5°N south of Sri Lanka.

Abstract

The relationship between atmospheric subseasonal variability and interannual variation of SST over the tropical Indian Ocean is examined using winds and humidity from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and the monthly SST analysis. The primary focus is on whether and how the subseasonal variability is related to the zonal dipole structure of SST, which peaks during boreal fall. The level of subseasonal wind activity is measured by standard deviation of bandpass-filtered zonal wind fields on the 6–30- and 30–90-day time scales.

During boreal fall (September–November), the interannual variation of 6–30-day (submonthly) near-surface zonal wind activity in the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is highly correlated with the large-scale zonal SST gradient. The intensity of submonthly variability is largely reduced during positive dipole years. A significant reduction of intraseasonal (30–90-day) wind activity is also evident during large dipole events. However, the correlation with the zonal SST gradient is much weaker than that of submonthly variability.

The mechanism by which the Indian Ocean dipole influences equatorial submonthly winds is investigated based on a cross-correlation analysis of OLR and winds. During negative dipole years, submonthly convection is active in the southeast Indian Ocean where the anomalous convergence of surface moisture associated with dipole events is at its maximum. The submonthly convection in this region is often associated with a cyclonic circulation, and these disturbances propagate westward. Consequently, equatorial westerlies and northwesterly winds near the coast of Sumatra are generated. During positive dipole years, submonthly convective activity is highly reduced in the southeast Indian Ocean, and thus no equatorial westerly is generated.

Ocean response to submonthly disturbances is examined using OGCM experiments forced with winds from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. Results suggest that submonthly winds can generate significant upper-ocean response, including strong eastward surface currents near the equator and sea surface height anomalies along the coast of Sumatra where the large SST anomalies associated with dipole events are observed.

Abstract

This paper investigates interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) upwelling through analyzing satellite and in situ observations from 1993 to 2016 using the conventional Static Linear Regression Model (SLM) and Bayesian Dynamical Linear Model (DLM), and performing experiments using a linear ocean model. The analysis also extends back to 1979, using ocean–atmosphere reanalysis datasets. Strong interannual variability is observed over the mean upwelling zone of the Seychelles–Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) and in the seasonal upwelling area of the eastern tropical IO (EIO), with enhanced EIO upwelling accompanying weakened SCTR upwelling. Surface winds associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the IO dipole (IOD) are the major drivers of upwelling variability. ENSO is more important than the IOD over the SCTR region, but they play comparable roles in the EIO. Upwelling anomalies generally intensify when positive IODs co-occur with El Niño events. For the 1979–2016 period, eastern Pacific (EP) El Niños overall have stronger impacts than central Pacific (CP) and the 2015/16 hybrid El Niño events, because EP El Niños are associated with stronger convection and surface wind anomalies over the IO; however, this relationship might change for a different interdecadal period. Rossby wave propagation has a strong impact on upwelling in the western basin, which causes errors in the SLM and DLM because neither can properly capture wave propagation. Remote forcing by equatorial winds is crucial for the EIO upwelling. While the first two baroclinic modes capture over 80%–90% of the upwelling variability, intermediate modes (3–8) are needed to fully represent IO upwelling.

Abstract

In this study decadal (≥10 yr) sea level variations in the Indian Ocean (IO) during 1950–2012 are investigated using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). The solution of the main run agrees well with observations in the western-to-central IO. Results of HYCOM experiments reveal large spatial variations in the mechanisms of decadal sea level variability. Within the tropical IO (north of 20°S), decadal sea level variations achieve maximum amplitude in the south IO thermocline ridge region. They are predominantly forced by decadal fluctuations of surface wind stress associated with climate variability modes, while the impact of other processes is much smaller. The Somali coast and the western Bay of Bengal are two exceptional regions, where ocean internal (unforced) variability has large contribution. Between 28° and 20°S in the subtropical south IO, surface heat flux and ocean internal variability are the major drivers of decadal sea level variability. Heat budget analysis for the upper 300 m of this region suggests that surface heat flux affects regional thermosteric sea level through both local surface heating and heat transport by ocean circulation. In the southwestern IO south of 30°S, where stochastic winds are strong, stochastic wind forcing and its interaction with ocean internal variability generate pronounced decadal variations in sea level. The comprehensive investigation of decadal sea level variability over the IO from an oceanic perspective will contribute to decadal sea level prediction research, which has a high societal demand.

Abstract

An ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is used to study the roles of equatorial waves and western boundary reflection in the seasonal circulation of the equatorial Indian Ocean. The western boundary reflection is defined as the total Kelvin waves leaving the western boundary, which include the reflection of the equatorial Rossby waves as well as the effects of alongshore winds, off-equatorial Rossby waves, and nonlinear processes near the western boundary. The evaluation of the reflection is based on a wave decomposition of the OGCM results and experiments with linear models. It is found that the alongshore winds along the east coast of Africa and the Rossby waves in the off-equatorial areas contribute significantly to the annual harmonics of the equatorial Kelvin waves at the western boundary. The semiannual harmonics of the Kelvin waves, on the other hand, originate primarily from a linear reflection of the equatorial Rossby waves. The dynamics of a dominant annual oscillation of sea level coexisting with the dominant semiannual oscillations of surface zonal currents in the central equatorial Indian Ocean are investigated. These sea level and zonal current patterns are found to be closely related to the linear reflections of the semiannual harmonics at the meridional boundaries. Because of the reflections, the second baroclinic mode resonates with the semiannual wind forcing; that is, the semiannual zonal currents carried by the reflected waves enhance the wind-forced currents at the central basin. Because of the different behavior of the zonal current and sea level during the reflections, the semiannual sea levels of the directly forced and reflected waves cancel each other significantly at the central basin. In the meantime, the annual harmonic of the sea level remains large, producing a dominant annual oscillation of sea level in the central equatorial Indian Ocean. The linear reflection causes the semiannual harmonics of the incoming and reflected sea levels to enhance each other at the meridional boundaries. In addition, the weak annual harmonics of sea level in the western basin, resulting from a combined effect of the western boundary reflection and the equatorial zonal wind forcing, facilitate the dominance by the semiannual harmonics near the western boundary despite the strong local wind forcing at the annual period. The Rossby waves are found to have a much larger contribution to the observed equatorial semiannual oscillations of surface zonal currents than the Kelvin waves. The westward progressive reversal of seasonal surface zonal currents along the equator in the observations is primarily due to the Rossby wave propagation.

Abstract

Previous theoretical studies suggest that the topography along the west coast of Australia plays an important role in strengthening and trapping the Leeuwin Current (LC) at the coast. To isolate and quantify the effect of the continental shelf and slope on the LC and Ningaloo Niño, high-resolution (1/12°) ocean general circulation model experiments with different bottom topographies are performed. The “control” experiment uses a realistic bottom topography along the west coast of Australia, whereas the sensitivity (“no-shelf”) experiment uses a modified topography with no continental shelf and slope near the coast. The mean and variability of LC are realistically simulated in the control experiment. Compared to the control experiment, the strength of LC in the no-shelf experiment decreased by about 28%. The continental shelf influences the development of the 2010/11 Ningaloo Niño through modulating the LC variability: in August–October 2010 and January–February 2011, the LC in the control experiment is enhanced much more than that in the no-shelf experiment. As a result, the upper-50-m ocean temperature in the control experiment is about 26% warmer than the no-shelf experiment from September 2010 to March 2011. Different evolution of SST warming is also found in the two experiments. Comparisons of oceanic processes in the two experiments show that the shelf-slope topography can effectively trap the positive sea level anomaly at the coast in the control experiment while more Rossby waves radiate from the coast in the no-shelf experiment, resulting in a weaker LC.

Abstract

Observations show that decadal (10–20 yr) to interdecadal (>20 yr) variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) closely follows that of the Pacific until the 1960s. Since then, the TIO SST exhibits a persistent warming trend, whereas the Pacific SST shows large-amplitude fluctuations associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), and the decadal variability of the TIO SST is out of phase with that of the Pacific after around 1980. Here causes for the changing behavior of the TIO SST are explored, by analyzing multiple observational datasets and the recently available large-ensemble simulations from two climate models. It is found that on interdecadal time scales, the persistent TIO warming trend is caused by emergence of anthropogenic warming overcoming internal variability, while the time of emergence occurs much later in the Pacific. On decadal time scales, two major tropical volcanic eruptions occurred in the 1980s and 1990s causing decadal SST cooling over the TIO during which the IPO was in warm phase, yielding the out-of-phase relation. The more evident fingerprints of external forcing in the TIO compared to the Pacific result from the much weaker TIO internal decadal–interdecadal variability, making the TIO prone to the external forcing. These results imply that the ongoing warming and natural external forcing may make the Indian Ocean more active, playing an increasingly important role in affecting regional and global climate.

Abstract

Atmospheric intraseasonal variability in the tropical Atlantic is analyzed using satellite winds, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and reanalysis products during 2000–08. The analyses focus on assessing the effects of dominant intraseasonal atmospheric convective processes, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and Rossby waves on surface wind and convection of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and African monsoon area. The results show that contribution from each process varies in different regions. In general, the MJO events dominate the westward-propagating Rossby waves in affecting strong convection in the African monsoon region. The Rossby waves, however, have larger contributions to convection in the western Atlantic Ocean. Both the westward- and eastward-propagating signals contribute approximately equally in the central Atlantic basin. The effects of intraseasonal signals have evident seasonality. Both convection amplitude and the number of strong convective events associated with the MJO are larger during November–April than during May–October in all regions. Convection associated with Rossby wave events is stronger during November–April for all regions, and the numbers of Rossby wave events are higher during November–April than during May–October in the African monsoon region, and are comparable for the two seasons in the western and central Atlantic basins. Of particular interest is that the MJOs originating from the Indo-Pacific Ocean can be enhanced over the tropical Atlantic Ocean while they propagate eastward, amplifying their impacts on the African monsoon. On the other hand, Rossby waves can originate either in the eastern equatorial Atlantic or West African monsoon region, and some can strengthen while they propagate westward, affecting surface winds and convection in the western Atlantic and Central American regions.

Abstract

A nonlinear, 4½-layer reduced-gravity ocean model with active thermodynamics and mixed layer physics is used to investigate the causes of sea level interannual variability in the Bay of Bengal, which may contribute to flooding and cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh. Forcing by NCEP–NCAR reanalysis fields from 1958 to 1998 yields realistic solutions in the Indian Ocean basin north of 29°S. Controlled experiments elucidate the roles of the following forcing mechanisms: interannual variability of the Bay of Bengal wind, equatorial wind, river discharges into the bay, and surface buoyancy flux including precipitation minus evaporation (heat fluxes + P − E).

Sea level changes in the bay result largely from wind variability, with a typical amplitude of 10 cm and occasionally 10–25 cm at an interannual timescale. Near the eastern and northern boundaries, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are predominantly caused by equatorial wind variability, which generates coastal Kelvin waves that propagate into the bay along the eastern boundary. Near the western boundary the bay wind has a comparable influence as the equatorial wind, especially during the southwest monsoon season, owing to the counterclockwise propagation of coastal Kelvin waves forced by the large-scale alongshore wind stress in the bay. In the bay interior, SLAs are dominated by the equatorial wind forcing in the central bay, result almost equally from the equatorial and the bay wind in the southwestern bay, and are dominated by the bay wind forcing in the southwestern bay during the southwest monsoon. The westward intensification of the bay wind influence is associated with the westward propagation of Rossby waves forced by the large-scale wind curl in the interior bay. The effect of heat fluxes + P − E is generally small. Influence of interannual variability of river discharges is negligible.

SLAs caused by the equatorial wind at the equator and that caused by the bay wind along the northern and western boundaries as well as in the southwestern bay are significantly correlated, reflecting the anomalous wind pattern associated with the dipole mode event in the tropical Indian Ocean. Given the dominance of equatorial wind forcing near the northern bay boundary, SLAs (or alternatively westerly wind anomalies) in the equatorial ocean may serve as a potential index for predicting Bangladesh flooding and cholera.

Abstract

The relative importance of local versus remote forcing on intraseasonal-to-interannual sea level and thermocline variability of the tropical south Indian Ocean (SIO) is systematically examined by performing a suite of controlled experiments using an ocean general circulation model and a linear ocean model. Particular emphasis is placed on the thermocline ridge of the Indian Ocean (TRIO; 5°–12°S, 50°–80°E). On interannual and seasonal time scales, sea level and thermocline variability within the TRIO region is primarily forced by winds over the Indian Ocean. Interannual variability is largely caused by westward propagating Rossby waves forced by Ekman pumping velocities east of the region. Seasonally, thermocline variability over the TRIO region is induced by a combination of local Ekman pumping and Rossby waves generated by winds from the east. Adjustment of the tropical SIO at both time scales generally follows linear theory and is captured by the first two baroclinic modes. Remote forcing from the Pacific via the oceanic bridge has significant influence on seasonal and interannual thermocline variability in the east basin of the SIO and weak impact on the TRIO region. On intraseasonal time scales, strong sea level and thermocline variability is found in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean, and it primarily arises from oceanic instabilities. In the TRIO region, intraseasonal sea level is relatively weak and results from Indian Ocean wind forcing. Forcing over the Pacific is the major cause for interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport, whereas forcing over the Indian Ocean plays a larger role in determining seasonal and intraseasonal ITF variability.