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WILLIAM H. HAGGARD

Abstract

Newly adjusted tracks of North Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms for 72 years provide a consistent set of data for examining the birthplaces of these storms. For 59 years (1899–1957) of the record, portions of the adjusted storm tracks from the point of origin of first closed circulation to the point of first hurricane intensity are presented. The origins show a regular seasonal shift eastward and later westward across an area east of the Lesser Antilles. The location of the seasonal maximum of origins in this area is thus explained. The data support Mitchell's conclusion that the eastern Caribbean is not a birthplace of tropical storms. The results are discussed in relation to the available observational network in the hurricane breeding grounds.

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William H. Haggard, Thaddeus H. Bilton, and Harold L. Crutcher

Abstract

The results of a statistical study of maximum measured rainfall amounts of tropical cyclone systems whose paths cross the Appalachian Mountains an presented. The study includes storms from 1900 through 1969 and considers primarily the maximum recorded rainfall in mountainous terrain. The criteria are that the tropical cyclone had to pass the 1000-ft contour and that the precipitation was measured inside the outer-most 1000-ft contour. In some cases the maxima were recorded at altitudes below the 1000-ft contour; these locations were in valleys surrounded by higher elevations. Supplemental information is presented for maximum rainfall anywhere after storm landfall, although passage of the system over the Appalachian region remained a criterion.

The data are modelled by the gamma distribution. Probabilities of exceeding a specified rainfall amount and rainfall amounts for specified probability levels are presented in tabular and graphical form.

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Herbert Riehl, William H. Haggard, and Richard W. Sanborn

Abstract

A quantitative technique for the prediction of 24-hour hurricane motion from 500-millibar charts is presented. Verification from current forecasts made during the 1955 hurricane season is given.

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