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William W. Kellogg
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William W. Kellogg
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William W. Kellogg

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William W. Kellogg

Abstract

Data from the High Altitude Dust Diffusion Project have been analyzed, and the rates of growth of 18 smoke puffs produced in the upper troposphere and stratosphere are presented. There was an increase in the rate of growth of the cloud size with increasing height, and a decrease in the rate of growth of the cloud mass with increasing stability of the atmosphere. From an initial diameter of 15 to 20 meters, the diameter of the smoke puffs increased fivefold in about 3 minutes, on the average.

A theoretical analysis of the growth of a smoke puff resulted in an equation describing the visual diameter as a function of time and a variety of turbulence parameters. Comparison between theory and experiment, based on Taylor's theory of “diffusion by continuous movement,” suggests that the root-mean-square eddy velocity in the stratosphere is of the order of 4 to 10 centimeters per second and increases with height.

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William W. Kellogg

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William W. Kellogg
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William W. Kellogg

The majority of the scientific community involved in climate research is convinced of the reality of a current and future global warming due to the greenhouse effect, a change that must be largely caused by human activities. However, a minority of scientists is still skeptical of the notion that mankind is significantly influencing the climate of the earth, and it therefore argues against taking certain measures to avert this alleged global warming. In recent years the media have given considerable coverage to the statements of these skeptics. Reasons for their statements range from a simple argument that we do not understand the earth's climate system well enough to predict the future, to more complex arguments involving negative feedbacks and changes of solar activity. They question whether the global temperature increase in this century of up to 0.6 K is primarily a result of worldwide burning of fossil fuels. The purpose of this article is to show that the statements of this skeptical school of thought need to be critically analyzed (and in some cases refuted) in the light of current understanding of the planetary system that determines our climate. There is also another school of thought that agrees about the reality of present and future global warming, and claims that this will be beneficial for most of mankind and that it should be encouraged. The policy implications of the latter view are in many respects similar to those of the group that are not convinced that a significant global warming will occur. Both schools of thought argue against taking immediate steps to slow the climate change.

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William W. Kellogg
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William W. Kellogg

In December 1975 a questionnaire was mailed to the roughly 9000 members of the American Meteorological Society, and more than half responded. The analysis of the answers provides some useful and hitherto unavailable information on the composition of our membership, where the members work and what they do, how they feel about the future of their respective branches of the profession, and their opinions about the Society and the ways in which it might be improved. Some recommendations for future action are strongly implied by the statistics.

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William W. Kellogg
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Gerhard F. Schilling

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A tentative model of the stratosphere is proposed. The model suggests a simple pattern for the general circulation of the upper atmosphere up to about 120 km, the pattern being consistent with most of the observational data pertaining to the stratosphere. Slopes of isobaric surfaces calculated from wind-velocity data and general considerations of the way in which thermal energy is applied to the upper atmosphere are used to estimate temperature distributions at high elevations over the poles.

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