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C. Y. Liu

Abstract

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Y. Liu
and
F. Primeau

Abstract

The effect of climate warming in response to rising atmospheric CO2 on the ventilation of the ocean remains uncertain. Here we make theoretical advances in elucidating the relationship between ideal age and transit time distribution (TTD) in a time-dependent flow. Subsequently, we develop an offline tracer-transport model to characterize the ventilation patterns and time scales in the time-evolving circulation for the 1850–2300 period as simulated with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESMv1) under a business-as-usual warming scenario. We found that by 2300 2.1% less water originates from the high-latitude deep water formation regions (both hemispheres) compared to 1850. In compensation, there is an increase in the water originating from the subantarctic. We also found that slowing meridional overturning circulation causes a gradual increase in mean age during the 1850–2300 period, with a globally averaged mean-age increase of ∼110 years in 2300. Where and when the water will be re-exposed to the atmosphere depends on the post-2300 circulation. For example, if we assume that the circulation persists in its year-2300 state (scenario 1), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in year 1850 is ∼1140 years. In contrast, if we assume that the circulation abruptly recovers to its year-1850 state (scenario 2), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in 1850 is only ∼740 years. By 2300, these differences become even larger; in scenario 1, the mean interior-to-surface transit time increases by ∼200 years, whereas scenario 2 decreases by ∼80 years. The dependence of interior-to-surface transit time on the future ocean circulation produces an additional unavoidable uncertainty in the long-term durability of marine carbon dioxide removal strategies.

Significance Statement

The ocean’s circulation, when altered by climate warming, can affect its capacity to absorb heat and CO2, which are crucial for the global climate. In our study, we investigated how global warming, caused by rising CO2 levels, might impact the ocean circulation—the way water moves from deep ocean to the surface and vice versa. We discovered that by 2300, if we continue on our current warming trajectory, the origins of water within the ocean will shift, with less coming from deep, cold zones near the poles and more from subantarctic regions. As a result, deep water will take longer time before it resurfaces than shallow water. How quickly this water travels from deep regions to the surface could change, depending on the state of future ocean circulation. If the circulation remains as predicted in 2300, this journey will take longer. Conversely, if it reverts to the pattern in 1850, the process will be quicker. This variability introduces added uncertainty to strategies aimed at mitigating climate change by storing CO2 in the ocean. Our work highlights the intricate ways in which climate change can influence our oceans, potentially affecting our plans to mitigate global warming.

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C. Liu
,
Y. Liu
, and
H. Xu

Abstract

In this work, the forecast accuracy of a numerical weather prediction model is improved by emulating physical dissipation as suggested by the second law of thermodynamics, which controls the irreversible evolutionary direction of a many-body system like the atmosphere. The ability of the new physics-based scheme to improve model accuracy is demonstrated via the case of the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation and the one-dimensional diffusion equation, as well as a series of numerical simulations of the well-known 1998 successive torrential rains along the Yangtze River valley and 365 continuous 24-h simulations during 2005–06 with decreased root-mean-square errors and improved forecasts in all of the simulations.

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J. Y. Liu
and
H. D. Orville

Abstract

The effects of precipitation on a model of cumulus cloud initiation and development over mountains are studied by numerically integrating the equations of motion, equations of conservation of water substance, and the thermodynamic energy equation. The model is two-space dimensional with a vertical wind shear in a stable, incompressible atmosphere. Heating and evaporation at the valley and mountain interact with the initial ambient flow to initiate clouds which produce shadows on the surface and cut down both heating and evaporation. The model is restricted vertically to 3.5 km and horizontally to 7.0 km.

Several precipitation parameters are studied in this model. One, the critical water content determines when cloud water converts to rainwater. A second, the autoconversion rate, determines how rapidly the cloud water converts to rainwater. The third parameter determines how quickly the precipitation evaporates beneath the cloud. The rainwater first forms by autoconversion and is then increased by the accretion process following techniques described by Kessler and Srivastava. Berry's formulation for autoconversion is also tested.

The development of the cumulus clouds is similar for both precipitating and nonprecipitating clouds at their early stages. Virga phenomena are illustrated in these small cumulus clouds. At later stages the evaporation beneath and to the sides of the cloud makes the air cooler and creates a downdraft. Generally such effects shorten the clouds' life cycle. The shadow effects cause the clouds to move out of the model grid at a progressively faster rate and cause the clouds subsequent to the first one to be smaller.

In a symmetric model integrated both with and without precipitation and with cloud shadow effects, the shadow causes multiple growths over the ridge, the third of three clouds being the only one to accelerate until impeded by the rigid upper boundary of the grid. The first two clouds dissipate shortly after formation. The downdrafts beneath the clouds are stronger in the precipitating case.

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Y. Liu
and
J. C. H. Chiang

Abstract

Previous modeling and paleoclimate studies have suggested that cooling originating from the extratropical North Atlantic can abruptly weaken the Eurasian and North African monsoons. The climatic signature includes a widespread cooling over the Eurasian and North African continents and an associated increase to surface pressure. It is explored whether such coordinated changes are similarly exhibited in the observed twentieth-century climate, in particular with the well-documented shift of Sahel rainfall during the 1960s. Surface temperature, sea level pressure, and precipitation changes are analyzed using combined principal component analysis (CPCA). The leading mode exhibits a monotonic shift in the 1960s, and the transition is associated with a relative cooling and pressure increase over the interior Eurasia and North Africa, and rainfall reduction over the Sahel, South Asia, and East Asia. The local circulation changes suggest that the rainfall shift results from the regional response of the summer monsoons to these continental-wide changes. A similar CPCA analysis of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced by twentieth-century-observed forcings shows similar results, suggesting that origins of the climate shift reside in the sea surface temperature changes, specifically over the extratropical North Atlantic. Finally, an AGCM forced with extratropical North Atlantic cooling appears to simulate these climate impacts, at least qualitatively. The result herein shows that the observed climate signature of the 1960s abrupt shift in Eurasian and North African climate is consistent with the influence of the abrupt high-latitude North Atlantic cooling that occurred in the late 1960s. A definitive causal relationship remains to be shown, and mechanisms elucidated.

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C. H. Liu
and
D. Y. C. Leung

Abstract

A three-dimensional mesoscale meteorological model was developed based on second-moment closure equations that were solved by the finite-element method. This paper aims to evaluate the performance of the model under flat terrain and horizontally homogeneous atmospheric boundary layer conditions. The one-dimensional version of this model was tested against field measurements, a water tank experiment, and another numerical model. It showed several interesting behaviors of the atmospheric boundary layer under stable and unstable flows that are of primary interest for environmental studies.

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C. H. Liu
and
D. Y. C. Leung

Abstract

A three-dimensional second-order closure meteorological and pollutant dispersion model is developed, and the computed results are evaluated. A finite-element method is used to solve the governing equations because of its versatility in handling variable-resolution meshes and complex geometries. The one-dimensional version of this model is used to simulate a 24-h diurnal cycle for a horizontally homogeneous atmospheric boundary layer in neutral, stable, and unstable stratifications. The simulated turbulence fields under a convective boundary layer act as the background turbulence for simulating cases of three-dimensional pollutant dispersion from elevated point sources. The simulated turbulence and pollutant distribution compared well with experimental observations and with other numerical models, ensuring the validity of the adopted mathematical formulation as well as the developed model. The computed results provide an overview of turbulence structures in different atmospheric stabilities and are helpful to enhance understanding of the characteristics of air pollutant dispersion, such as plume rise and descent in a convective boundary layer. The current study suggests the need for an insightful and practical numerical model to perform air-quality analysis, one that is capable of overcoming the weaknesses of traditional Gaussian plume and k-theory dispersion models.

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Benjamin Y. H. Liu
,
David Y. H. Pui
,
Austin W. Hogan
, and
Ted A. Rich

Abstract

The photoelectric condensation nucleus counter of Pollak with convergent light beam has been compared with an electrical aerosol detector using monodisperse aerosols with particle diameters between 0.025 and 0.15 μm, particle concentrations between 127 and 260,800 cm−3, and particles of two different chemical constituencies, e.g., NaCl and material volatilized from a heated nichrome wire. Very good agreement has been obtained. The discrepancy between these two methods was found to be less than 9% at concentration levels below 104 particles cm−2 and 17% at 2.5 × 105 particles cm−3. This discrepancy is well within the combined uncertainties in the two independent aerosol concentration measuring methods.

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J. Zhang
,
Y. Wu
,
C. L. Liu
,
Z. B. Shen
, and
Y. Zhang

Abstract

Aerosol samples were collected from the northwest China desert region (i.e., Minqin), a coastal suburb area (i.e., Qingdao), and an island from the Yellow Sea (i.e., Qianliyan), respectively, in spring and summer of 1995 and 1996. Samples were analyzed for major components (Al, Ca, K, Mg, and Na), carbon (RAC), and sulphur (RAS). The results show that concentration of aerosols change considerably in time and space. The application of a three end-member-mixing model indicates that dust-dominated materials contribute up to 80%–90% of total aerosols when the cold fronts pass through over the Yellow Sea. The crust-dominated aerosols carried by cold front systems may well reduce the percentage concentrations of pollutant and sea salt over the Yellow Sea. The sea salt and regional aerosols become dominant fractions in atmosphere in summer when the dust storms expire in desert regions and the southeast monsoon starts in the subtropical Pacific Ocean.

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L. Huang
,
J. Zhai
,
C. Y. Sun
,
J. Y. Liu
,
J. Ning
, and
G.S. Zhao

Abstract

Land-use changes (LUCs) strongly influence regional climates through both the biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes. However, many studies have ignored the biogeophysical processes, which in some cases can offset the biogeochemical impacts. We integrated the field observations, satellite-retrieved data, and a conceptual land surface energy balance model to provide new evidence to fill our knowledge gap concerning how regional warming or cooling is affected by the three main types of LUCs (afforestation, cropland expansion, and urbanization) in different climate zones of China. According to our analyses, similar LUCs presented varied, even reverse, biogeophysical forcing on local temperatures across different climate regimes. Afforestation in arid and semiarid regions has caused increased net radiation that has typically outweighed increased latent evapotranspiration, thus warming has been the net biogeophysical effect. However, it has resulted in cooling in subtropical zones because the increase in net radiation has been exceeded by the increase in latent evapotranspiration. Cropland expansion has decreased the net radiation more than latent evapotranspiration, which has resulted in biogeophysical cooling in arid and semiarid regions. Conversely, it has caused warming in subtropical zones as a result of increases in net radiation and decreases in latent evapotranspiration. In all climatic regions, the net biogeophysical effects of urbanization have generally resulted in more or less warming because urbanization has led to smaller net radiation decreases than latent evapotranspiration. This study reinforces the need to adjust land-use policies to consider biogeophysical effects across different climate regimes and to adapt to and mitigate climate change.

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