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Yinglin Tian
,
Yu Zhang
,
Deyu Zhong
,
Mingxi Zhang
,
Tiejian Li
,
Di Xie
, and
Guangqian Wang

Abstract

Anomalous poleward transport of atmospheric energy can lead to sea ice loss during boreal winter over the Arctic, especially in the North Barents–Kara Seas (NBKS), by strengthening downward longwave radiation (DLW). However, compared with the extensive studies of latent energy sources, those of sensible energy sources are currently insufficient. Therefore, we focus on the intraseasonal sea ice loss events from the perspectives of both energy forms. First, the contributions of latent and sensible energy to DLW and sea ice reduction are quantified using the lagged composite method, a multiple linear regression model, and an ice toy model. Second, a Lagrangian approach is performed to examine sources of latent and sensible energy. Third, possible underlying mechanisms are proposed. We find that the positive anomalies of latent and sensible energy account for approximately 56% and 28% of the increase in DLW, respectively, and the DLW anomalies can theoretically explain a maximum of 58% of sea ice reduction. Geographically, the North Atlantic, the Norwegian, North, and Baltic Seas, western Europe, and the northeastern Pacific are major atmospheric energy source regions. Additionally, while the contributions of latent energy sources decrease with increasing distance from the NBKS, those of sensible energy sources are concentrated in the midlatitudes. Mechanistically, latent energy can influence sea ice decline, both directly by increasing the Arctic precipitable water and indirectly by warming the Arctic atmosphere through a remote conversion into sensible energy. Our results indicate that the Rossby waves induced by latent heating over the western tropical Pacific contribute to anomalous energy sources at midlatitude Pacific and Atlantic both dynamically and thermodynamically.

Significance Statement

Winter sea ice retreat in the Arctic has been attributed to increasing poleward atmospheric energy transport. While latent energy sources are extensively examined in previous studies, studies on sensible energy sources remain limited. Considering both atmospheric energy forms, we detected energy sources for the intraseasonal sea ice-loss events in the winter NBKS. Geographically, the North Atlantic, the Norwegian, North, and Baltic Seas, western Europe, and the northeastern Pacific are predominant energy source regions. Mechanistically, Rossby waves in the Northern Hemisphere triggered by tropical latent heating contribute to warm and moist air intrusions into the Arctic. This work suggests that latent energy can impact Arctic sea ice directly by moistening the atmosphere and indirectly by warming the Arctic atmosphere through remote conversion into sensible energy.

Open access
Yihong Duan
,
Jiandong Gong
,
Jun Du
,
Martin Charron
,
Jing Chen
,
Guo Deng
,
Geoff DiMego
,
Masahiro Hara
,
Masaru Kunii
,
Xiaoli Li
,
Yinglin Li
,
Kazuo Saito
,
Hiromu Seko
,
Yong Wang
, and
Christoph Wittmann

The Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project (B08RDP), initiated in 2004 under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), undertook the research and development of mesoscale ensemble prediction systems (MEPSs) and their application to weather forecast support during the Beijing Olympic Games. Six MEPSs from six countries, representing the state-of-the-art regional EPSs with near-real-time capabilities and emphasizing on the 6–36-h forecast lead times, participated in the project.

The background, objectives, and implementation of B08RDP, as well as the six MEPSs, are reviewed. The accomplishments are summarized, which include 1) providing value-added service to the Olympic Games, 2) advancing MEPS-related research, 3) accelerating the transition from research to operations, and 4) training forecasters in utilizing forecast uncertainty products. The B08RDP has fulfilled its research (MEPS development) and demonstration (value-added service) purposes. The research conducted covers the areas of verification, examining the value of MEPS relative to other numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, combining multimodel or multicenter ensembles, bias correction, ensemble perturbations [initial condition (IC), lateral boundary condition (LBC), land surface IC, and model physics], downscaling, forecast applications, data assimilation, and storm-scale ensemble modeling. Seven scientific issues important to MEPS have been identified. It is recognized that the daily use of forecast uncertainty information by forecasters remains a challenge. Development of forecaster-friendly products and training activities should be a long-term effort and needs to be continuously enhanced.

The B08RDP dataset is also a valuable asset to the research community. The experience gained in international collaboration, organization, and implementation of a multination regional EPS for a common goal and to address common scientific issues can be shared by the ongoing projects The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble—Limited Area Models (TIGGE-LAM) and North American Ensemble Forecast System—Limited Area Models (NAEFS-LAM).

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