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- Author or Editor: Zhongbo Su x
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Abstract
A Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) originally developed for the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer was applied to Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS)-5 Visible/Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer data that were supplemented with other meteorological data. GMS-5, which is a geostationary satellite, recorded continuous hourly information. Surface temperatures obtained from the GMS-5 data were entered into SEBS to estimate the hourly regional distribution of the surface heat fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau. The estimated fluxes are verified by using corresponding field observations. The diurnal cycle of estimated fluxes agreed well with the field measurements. For example, the diurnal range of the estimated sensible heat flux decreases from June to August. This reflects the change of dry to wet surface characteristics resulting from frequent precipitation during the summer monsoon. Over the Tibetan Plateau, the diurnal range of the surface temperature is as large as the annual range, so that the resultant sensible heat flux has a large diurnal variation. Thus, the hourly estimation based on the GMS data may contribute to a better understanding of the land surface–atmosphere interaction in this critical area.
Abstract
A Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) originally developed for the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer was applied to Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS)-5 Visible/Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer data that were supplemented with other meteorological data. GMS-5, which is a geostationary satellite, recorded continuous hourly information. Surface temperatures obtained from the GMS-5 data were entered into SEBS to estimate the hourly regional distribution of the surface heat fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau. The estimated fluxes are verified by using corresponding field observations. The diurnal cycle of estimated fluxes agreed well with the field measurements. For example, the diurnal range of the estimated sensible heat flux decreases from June to August. This reflects the change of dry to wet surface characteristics resulting from frequent precipitation during the summer monsoon. Over the Tibetan Plateau, the diurnal range of the surface temperature is as large as the annual range, so that the resultant sensible heat flux has a large diurnal variation. Thus, the hourly estimation based on the GMS data may contribute to a better understanding of the land surface–atmosphere interaction in this critical area.
Abstract
Knowledge of the response of extreme precipitation to urbanization is essential to ensure societal preparedness for the extreme events caused by climate change. To quantify this response, this study scales extreme precipitation according to temperature using the statistical quantile regression and binning methods for 231 rain gauges during the period of 1985–2014. The positive 3%–7% scaling rates were found at most stations. The nonstationary return levels of extreme precipitation are investigated using monthly blocks of the maximum daily precipitation, considering the dependency of precipitation on the dewpoint, atmospheric air temperatures, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Consideration of Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) land-cover types upwind of the stations in different directions classifies stations as urban and nonurban. The return levels for the maximum daily precipitation are greater over urban stations than those over nonurban stations especially after the spring months. This discrepancy was found by 5%–7% larger values in August for all of the classified station types. Analysis of the intensity–duration–frequency curves for urban and nonurban precipitation in August reveals that the assumption of stationarity leads to the underestimation of precipitation extremes due to the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to the nonstationary condition. The study concludes that nonstationary models should be used to estimate the return levels of extreme precipitation by considering the probable covariates such as the dewpoint and atmospheric air temperatures. In addition to the external forces, such as large-scale weather modes, circulation types, and temperature changes that drive extreme precipitation, urbanization could impact extreme precipitation in the Netherlands, particularly for short-duration events.
Abstract
Knowledge of the response of extreme precipitation to urbanization is essential to ensure societal preparedness for the extreme events caused by climate change. To quantify this response, this study scales extreme precipitation according to temperature using the statistical quantile regression and binning methods for 231 rain gauges during the period of 1985–2014. The positive 3%–7% scaling rates were found at most stations. The nonstationary return levels of extreme precipitation are investigated using monthly blocks of the maximum daily precipitation, considering the dependency of precipitation on the dewpoint, atmospheric air temperatures, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Consideration of Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) land-cover types upwind of the stations in different directions classifies stations as urban and nonurban. The return levels for the maximum daily precipitation are greater over urban stations than those over nonurban stations especially after the spring months. This discrepancy was found by 5%–7% larger values in August for all of the classified station types. Analysis of the intensity–duration–frequency curves for urban and nonurban precipitation in August reveals that the assumption of stationarity leads to the underestimation of precipitation extremes due to the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to the nonstationary condition. The study concludes that nonstationary models should be used to estimate the return levels of extreme precipitation by considering the probable covariates such as the dewpoint and atmospheric air temperatures. In addition to the external forces, such as large-scale weather modes, circulation types, and temperature changes that drive extreme precipitation, urbanization could impact extreme precipitation in the Netherlands, particularly for short-duration events.
Abstract
This study assesses the impact of assimilating satellite-observed snow albedo on the Noah land surface model (LSM)-simulated fluxes and snow properties. A direct insertion technique is developed to assimilate snow albedo into Noah and is applied to three intensive study areas in North Park (Colorado) that are part of the 2002/03 Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX). The assimilated snow albedo products are 1) the standard Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) product (MOD10A1) and 2) retrievals from MODIS observations with the recently developed Pattern-Based Semiempirical (PASS) approach. The performance of the Noah simulations, with and without assimilation, is evaluated using the in situ measurements of snow albedo, upward shortwave radiation, and snow depth. The results show that simulations with albedo assimilation agree better with the measurements. However, because of the limited impact of snow albedo updates after subsequent snowfall, the mean (or seasonal) error statistics decrease significantly for only two of the three CLPX sites. Though the simulated snow depth and duration for the snow season benefit from the assimilation, the greatest improvements are found in the simulated upward shortwave radiation, with root mean squared errors reduced by about 30%. As such, this study demonstrates that assimilation of satellite-observed snow albedo can improve LSM simulations, which may positively affect the representation of hydrological and surface energy budget processes in runoff and numerical weather prediction models.
Abstract
This study assesses the impact of assimilating satellite-observed snow albedo on the Noah land surface model (LSM)-simulated fluxes and snow properties. A direct insertion technique is developed to assimilate snow albedo into Noah and is applied to three intensive study areas in North Park (Colorado) that are part of the 2002/03 Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX). The assimilated snow albedo products are 1) the standard Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) product (MOD10A1) and 2) retrievals from MODIS observations with the recently developed Pattern-Based Semiempirical (PASS) approach. The performance of the Noah simulations, with and without assimilation, is evaluated using the in situ measurements of snow albedo, upward shortwave radiation, and snow depth. The results show that simulations with albedo assimilation agree better with the measurements. However, because of the limited impact of snow albedo updates after subsequent snowfall, the mean (or seasonal) error statistics decrease significantly for only two of the three CLPX sites. Though the simulated snow depth and duration for the snow season benefit from the assimilation, the greatest improvements are found in the simulated upward shortwave radiation, with root mean squared errors reduced by about 30%. As such, this study demonstrates that assimilation of satellite-observed snow albedo can improve LSM simulations, which may positively affect the representation of hydrological and surface energy budget processes in runoff and numerical weather prediction models.
Abstract
Snow cover simulation is a complex task in mountain regions because of its highly irregular distribution. GIS-based calculations of snowmelt–accumulation models must deal with nonnegligible scale effects below cell size, which may result in unsatisfactory predictions depending on the study scale. Terrestrial photography, whose scales can be adapted to the study problem, is a cost-effective technique, capable of reproducing snow dynamics at subgrid scale. A series of high-frequency images were combined with a mass and energy model to reproduce snow evolution at cell scale (30 m × 30 m) by means of the assimilation of the snow cover fraction observation dataset obtained from terrestrial photography in the Sierra Nevada, southern Spain. The ensemble transform Kalman filter technique is employed. The results show the convenience of adopting a selective depletion curve parameterization depending on the succession of accumulation–melting cycles in the snow season in these highly variable environments. A reduction in the error for snow depth to 50% (from 463.87 to 261.21 mm and from 238.22 to 128.50 mm) is achieved if the appropriate curve is selected.
Abstract
Snow cover simulation is a complex task in mountain regions because of its highly irregular distribution. GIS-based calculations of snowmelt–accumulation models must deal with nonnegligible scale effects below cell size, which may result in unsatisfactory predictions depending on the study scale. Terrestrial photography, whose scales can be adapted to the study problem, is a cost-effective technique, capable of reproducing snow dynamics at subgrid scale. A series of high-frequency images were combined with a mass and energy model to reproduce snow evolution at cell scale (30 m × 30 m) by means of the assimilation of the snow cover fraction observation dataset obtained from terrestrial photography in the Sierra Nevada, southern Spain. The ensemble transform Kalman filter technique is employed. The results show the convenience of adopting a selective depletion curve parameterization depending on the succession of accumulation–melting cycles in the snow season in these highly variable environments. A reduction in the error for snow depth to 50% (from 463.87 to 261.21 mm and from 238.22 to 128.50 mm) is achieved if the appropriate curve is selected.
Abstract
Rainfall variability affects agriculture planning and water resource management. In extreme flood and drought events, lives and property are destroyed. This study aims to improve East Africa’s seasonal rainfall prediction by determining the impact of the standard eight Real-time Multivariate Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) (RMM) phases on rainfall and using sea surface temperature (SST) response to test the predictability of the March–May (MAM) and October–December (OND) main rainfall seasons over a period of 33 years (1981–2013). Pearson correlation patterns, composite maps, and regression analyses were applied, and the Brier skill score (BSS) and correlation coefficients (CC) were utilized as validation metrics. Low correspondence of rainfall to MJO 1 and MJO 2 was observed except for the months of November and December. Seasonally, MAM and OND correlation patterns with MJO 2 revealed enhanced rainfall over the highlands and insignificant correspondence over coastal areas. Conversely, enhanced MJO 8 corresponded to suppressed rainfall during the June–August season over the coast and the eastern highlands. MAM rainfall was shown to be predictable using Maritime Continent SST indices, with a BSS of 0.41, while OND rainfall was shown to be predictable using Atlantic and Maritime Continent SSTs with a BSS of 0.62. Positive and negative MJO 2 corresponded, respectively, to enhanced and suppressed rainfall during the OND season and was confirmed to be related to, respectively, a positive and negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). An IOD year could possibly be triggered by changes in MJO 2 amplitudes observed as early peaks between February and June.
Abstract
Rainfall variability affects agriculture planning and water resource management. In extreme flood and drought events, lives and property are destroyed. This study aims to improve East Africa’s seasonal rainfall prediction by determining the impact of the standard eight Real-time Multivariate Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) (RMM) phases on rainfall and using sea surface temperature (SST) response to test the predictability of the March–May (MAM) and October–December (OND) main rainfall seasons over a period of 33 years (1981–2013). Pearson correlation patterns, composite maps, and regression analyses were applied, and the Brier skill score (BSS) and correlation coefficients (CC) were utilized as validation metrics. Low correspondence of rainfall to MJO 1 and MJO 2 was observed except for the months of November and December. Seasonally, MAM and OND correlation patterns with MJO 2 revealed enhanced rainfall over the highlands and insignificant correspondence over coastal areas. Conversely, enhanced MJO 8 corresponded to suppressed rainfall during the June–August season over the coast and the eastern highlands. MAM rainfall was shown to be predictable using Maritime Continent SST indices, with a BSS of 0.41, while OND rainfall was shown to be predictable using Atlantic and Maritime Continent SSTs with a BSS of 0.62. Positive and negative MJO 2 corresponded, respectively, to enhanced and suppressed rainfall during the OND season and was confirmed to be related to, respectively, a positive and negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). An IOD year could possibly be triggered by changes in MJO 2 amplitudes observed as early peaks between February and June.
Abstract
MODIS thermal sensors can provide us with global land surface temperature (LST) several times each day, but have difficulty in obtaining information from the land surface in cloudy situations. As a result, the monthly day or night LST products [Terra monthly day LST (TMD), Terra monthly night LST (TMN), Aqua monthly day LST (AMD), and Aqua monthly night LST (AMN)] are the average LST values calculated over a variable number of clear-sky days in a month. Is it possible to derive an accurate estimate of monthly mean LST based on averaging of the multidaily overpasses of MODIS sensors? In situ ground measurements and ERA-Interim reanalyses data, both of which provide continuous information in either clear or cloudy conditions, have been used to validate the approach. Using LST measurements from 156 ground flux towers, it was found that the three mean values 
Abstract
MODIS thermal sensors can provide us with global land surface temperature (LST) several times each day, but have difficulty in obtaining information from the land surface in cloudy situations. As a result, the monthly day or night LST products [Terra monthly day LST (TMD), Terra monthly night LST (TMN), Aqua monthly day LST (AMD), and Aqua monthly night LST (AMN)] are the average LST values calculated over a variable number of clear-sky days in a month. Is it possible to derive an accurate estimate of monthly mean LST based on averaging of the multidaily overpasses of MODIS sensors? In situ ground measurements and ERA-Interim reanalyses data, both of which provide continuous information in either clear or cloudy conditions, have been used to validate the approach. Using LST measurements from 156 ground flux towers, it was found that the three mean values
Abstract
Roughness height for heat transfer is a crucial parameter in the estimation of sensible heat flux. In this study, the performance of the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) has been tested and evaluated for typical land surfaces on the Tibetan Plateau on the basis of time series of observations at four sites with bare soil, sparse canopy, dense canopy, and snow surface, respectively. Both under- and overestimation at low and high sensible heat fluxes by SEBS was discovered. Through sensitivity analyses, it was identified that these biases are related to the SEBS parameterization of bare soil’s excess resistance to heat transfer (kB −1, where k is the von Kármán constant and B −1 is the Stanton number). The kB −1 of bare soil in SEBS was replaced. The results show that the revised model performs better than the original model.
Abstract
Roughness height for heat transfer is a crucial parameter in the estimation of sensible heat flux. In this study, the performance of the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) has been tested and evaluated for typical land surfaces on the Tibetan Plateau on the basis of time series of observations at four sites with bare soil, sparse canopy, dense canopy, and snow surface, respectively. Both under- and overestimation at low and high sensible heat fluxes by SEBS was discovered. Through sensitivity analyses, it was identified that these biases are related to the SEBS parameterization of bare soil’s excess resistance to heat transfer (kB −1, where k is the von Kármán constant and B −1 is the Stanton number). The kB −1 of bare soil in SEBS was replaced. The results show that the revised model performs better than the original model.
Abstract
Understanding the sources of uncertainty that cause deviations between simulated and satellite-observed states can facilitate optimal usage of these products via data assimilation or calibration techniques. A method is presented for separating uncertainties following from (i) scale differences between model grid and satellite footprint, (ii) residuals inherent to imperfect model and retrieval applications, and (iii) biases in the climatologies of simulations and retrievals. The method is applied to coarse (10 km) soil moisture simulations by the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5)–Noah regional climate model and 2.5 years of high-resolution (100 m) retrievals from the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) data collected over central Tibet. Suppression of the bias is performed via cumulative distribution function (CDF) matching. The other deviations are separated by taking the variance of the ASAR soil moisture at the coarse MM5 model grid as measure for the deviations caused by scale differences. Via decomposition of the uncertainty sources it is shown that the bias and the spatial-scale difference explain the majority (>70%) of the deviations between the two products, whereas the contribution of model–observation residuals is less than 30% on a monthly basis. Consequently, this study demonstrates that accounting for uncertainties caused by bias as well as spatial-scale difference is imperative for meaningful assimilation of high-resolution soil moisture products. On the other hand, the large uncertainties following from spatial-scale differences suggests that high-resolution soil moisture products have a potential of providing observation-based input for the subgrid spatial variability parameterizations within large-scale models.
Abstract
Understanding the sources of uncertainty that cause deviations between simulated and satellite-observed states can facilitate optimal usage of these products via data assimilation or calibration techniques. A method is presented for separating uncertainties following from (i) scale differences between model grid and satellite footprint, (ii) residuals inherent to imperfect model and retrieval applications, and (iii) biases in the climatologies of simulations and retrievals. The method is applied to coarse (10 km) soil moisture simulations by the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5)–Noah regional climate model and 2.5 years of high-resolution (100 m) retrievals from the Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) data collected over central Tibet. Suppression of the bias is performed via cumulative distribution function (CDF) matching. The other deviations are separated by taking the variance of the ASAR soil moisture at the coarse MM5 model grid as measure for the deviations caused by scale differences. Via decomposition of the uncertainty sources it is shown that the bias and the spatial-scale difference explain the majority (>70%) of the deviations between the two products, whereas the contribution of model–observation residuals is less than 30% on a monthly basis. Consequently, this study demonstrates that accounting for uncertainties caused by bias as well as spatial-scale difference is imperative for meaningful assimilation of high-resolution soil moisture products. On the other hand, the large uncertainties following from spatial-scale differences suggests that high-resolution soil moisture products have a potential of providing observation-based input for the subgrid spatial variability parameterizations within large-scale models.
ABSTRACT
Current land surface models still have difficulties with producing reliable surface heat fluxes and skin temperature (T sfc) estimates for high-altitude regions, which may be addressed via adequate parameterization of the roughness lengths for momentum (z 0m) and heat (z 0h) transfer. In this study, the performance of various z 0h and z 0m schemes developed for the Noah land surface model is assessed for a high-altitude site (3430 m) on the northeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on the in situ surface heat fluxes and profile measurements of wind and temperature, monthly variations of z 0m and diurnal variations of z 0h are derived through application of the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. These derived values together with the measured heat fluxes are utilized to assess the performance of those z 0m and z 0h schemes for different seasons. The analyses show that the z 0m dynamics are related to vegetation dynamics and soil water freeze–thaw state, which are reproduced satisfactorily with current z 0m schemes. Further, it is demonstrated that the heat flux simulations are very sensitive to the diurnal variations of z 0h. The newly developed z 0h schemes all capture, at least over the sparse vegetated surfaces during the winter season, the observed diurnal variability much better than the original one. It should, however, be noted that for the dense vegetated surfaces during the spring and monsoon seasons, not all newly developed schemes perform consistently better than the original one. With the most promising schemes, the Noah simulated sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, T sfc, and soil temperature improved for the monsoon season by about 29%, 79%, 75%, and 81%, respectively. In addition, the impact of T sfc calculation and energy balance closure associated with measurement uncertainties on the above findings are discussed, and the selection of the appropriate z 0h scheme for applications is addressed.
ABSTRACT
Current land surface models still have difficulties with producing reliable surface heat fluxes and skin temperature (T sfc) estimates for high-altitude regions, which may be addressed via adequate parameterization of the roughness lengths for momentum (z 0m) and heat (z 0h) transfer. In this study, the performance of various z 0h and z 0m schemes developed for the Noah land surface model is assessed for a high-altitude site (3430 m) on the northeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on the in situ surface heat fluxes and profile measurements of wind and temperature, monthly variations of z 0m and diurnal variations of z 0h are derived through application of the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. These derived values together with the measured heat fluxes are utilized to assess the performance of those z 0m and z 0h schemes for different seasons. The analyses show that the z 0m dynamics are related to vegetation dynamics and soil water freeze–thaw state, which are reproduced satisfactorily with current z 0m schemes. Further, it is demonstrated that the heat flux simulations are very sensitive to the diurnal variations of z 0h. The newly developed z 0h schemes all capture, at least over the sparse vegetated surfaces during the winter season, the observed diurnal variability much better than the original one. It should, however, be noted that for the dense vegetated surfaces during the spring and monsoon seasons, not all newly developed schemes perform consistently better than the original one. With the most promising schemes, the Noah simulated sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, T sfc, and soil temperature improved for the monsoon season by about 29%, 79%, 75%, and 81%, respectively. In addition, the impact of T sfc calculation and energy balance closure associated with measurement uncertainties on the above findings are discussed, and the selection of the appropriate z 0h scheme for applications is addressed.
Abstract
Variations of land surface parameters over the Tibetan Plateau have great importance on local energy and water cycles, the Asian monsoon, and climate change studies. In this paper, the NOAA/NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Land (PAL) dataset is used to retrieve the land surface temperature (LST), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and albedo, from 1982 to 2000. Simultaneously, meteorological parameters and land surface heat fluxes are acquired from the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) dataset and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), respectively. Results show that from 1982 to 2000 both the LST and the surface air temperature increased on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The rate of increase of the LST was 0.26±0.16 K decade−1 and that of the surface air temperature was 0.29 ± 0.16 K decade−1, which exceeded the increase in the Northern Hemisphere (0.054 K decade−1). The plateau-wide annual mean precipitation increased at 2.54 mm decade−1, which indicates that the TP is becoming wetter. The 10-m wind speed decreased at about 0.05±0.03 m s−1 decade−1 from 1982 to 2000, which manifests a steady decline of the Asian monsoon wind. Due to the diminishing ground–air temperature gradient and subdued surface wind speed, the sensible heat flux showed a decline of 3.37 ± 2.19 W m−2 decade−1. The seasonal cycle of land surface parameters could clearly be linked to the patterns of the Asian monsoon. The spatial patterns of sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and their variance could also be recognized.
Abstract
Variations of land surface parameters over the Tibetan Plateau have great importance on local energy and water cycles, the Asian monsoon, and climate change studies. In this paper, the NOAA/NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Land (PAL) dataset is used to retrieve the land surface temperature (LST), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and albedo, from 1982 to 2000. Simultaneously, meteorological parameters and land surface heat fluxes are acquired from the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) dataset and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), respectively. Results show that from 1982 to 2000 both the LST and the surface air temperature increased on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The rate of increase of the LST was 0.26±0.16 K decade−1 and that of the surface air temperature was 0.29 ± 0.16 K decade−1, which exceeded the increase in the Northern Hemisphere (0.054 K decade−1). The plateau-wide annual mean precipitation increased at 2.54 mm decade−1, which indicates that the TP is becoming wetter. The 10-m wind speed decreased at about 0.05±0.03 m s−1 decade−1 from 1982 to 2000, which manifests a steady decline of the Asian monsoon wind. Due to the diminishing ground–air temperature gradient and subdued surface wind speed, the sensible heat flux showed a decline of 3.37 ± 2.19 W m−2 decade−1. The seasonal cycle of land surface parameters could clearly be linked to the patterns of the Asian monsoon. The spatial patterns of sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and their variance could also be recognized.
